Pest Risk AnalysisPest Risk AnalysisInternational Plant Protection

Convention (IPPC)

SPS Definition

• Risk assessment -- the evaluation of the likelihood of the entry, establishment, or spread of a pest or disease … and the associated potential biological and economic consequences ... (SPS Annex A)

IPPC Definition

• The process of evaluating biological or other scientific and economic evidence to determine whether a pest should be regulated and the strength of any phytosanitary measures to be taken against it -- (1997 IPPC)

PRA Obligations

• SPS Article 5.1 -- Members shall ensure that … phytosanitary measures are based on an assessment … of the risks …

• IPPC Article II -- technically justified (phytosanitary measures) justified on the basis of conclusions reached by using an appropriate pest risk analysis ...

Standards and PRA

• Phytosanitary measures must be based on international standards or justified on the basis of PRA (SPS Articles 3 & 5)

• Deviations from standards must be justified by PRA (SPS Article 5)

• Provisional (emergency) measures must be reviewed using PRA (SPS Article 5)

PRA and Trade• Few specific phytosanitary standards have

been done, therefore most phytosanitary measures must be justified by PRA

• PRA is used to:– justify protection measures affecting trade– evaluate or challenge other’s measures– encourage technical dialogue/info sharing– prioritize risk management and research

The Role of Scientists

• Recognize that regulatory policy is dependent on scientific inputs

• Actively participate, support, and influence regulatory decision-making with trade-sensitive scientific inputs

• Ensure that plant pests are only a barrier to trade when and where appropriate

Evolution of PRA in the IPPC

• ISPM 2: Guidelines for PRA

• Supplementary standards

– Pest categorization

– Probability of introduction

– Economic impact

– Risk management

… And More Evolution

Concept standard: Guidelines for PRA (to be revised)

Pest Risk Analysis

for Quarantine Pests

Pest Risk Analysis for Regulated

Non-Quarantine Pests

Supplementary Standards

Stages of PRA

• Initiation

• Risk Assessment– probability – consequences

• Risk Management

• Transparency– uncertainty

Initiation Stage

• Pest-initiated– detection (interception or incursion)– research or biological control

• Pathway– commodity evaluation– other regulated article– policy review or change

Risk Assessment Stage

• Presence/absence/distribution

• Official control

• Introduction potential

• Establishment potential

• Spread potential

Elements of Risk Assessment

Probability• With pathway• Escapes detection• Survives transit• Favorable location• Overcomes resistance• Able to reproduce and

spread

Consequences• Direct economic• Indirect economic• Environmental• Other:

– Political– Social– aesthetic

Risk Management Stage

• Identify options

• Evaluate options for:

– efficacy

– feasibility

– impacts

Transparency

• Document information sources

• Identify processes/methods

• Provide rationale for conclusions/decisions

• Describe uncertainty and identify data gaps or areas for additional research