Personal Preparation

- Read the wall policies DO- Personal fitness under way again- 72-hour kit? I am working on mine again.- Choices about where and how to live <Are you willing to vote

for taxes to pay for codes, better buildings, better public safety services?>- Slippers under the bed DONE>

- Situational awareness – water storage tank plan- Complement (not compliment) or replace local authority- Phone ‘apps’ vs other ‘word of mouth’ yes, reluctantly

Is that a confusing picture in a real world? <yes>

Make gradual transition from quakes and waves

to vulcanism

Which one is the real source of trouble for humans,

magma/volcunism or quaking?

Tsunami

Tsunami Animation

The role of lectures:

1. Comment on the book2. Evaluate learning3. Verify completion of college credit4. Learning is the goal – teachers are not the

‘learners’ - - students are. 5. Scholarship is about support ($), reputation,

and development of career capability, even if no one ever asks your GPA

Reading the book is vital.

History Channel (Thursday) indicated a potential warning time

of up to two minutes

However, consider that the longer your warning time, the less you will

need it. Those who need it the most will tend to have the shortest

possible warning time.

Wave Types

- Oscillation – wind-driven (or minor disturbances)no net movement of water

- Translation – mass movement of water (quake, asteroid)- Tidal – ‘bore tide’- Seiche – alternate term for earth movement that pushes water, such

as Lake Geneva, Lake Como, Hebgen Lake (quake lake), and , North Sea (and Netherlands)

- Amplitude, wave length (period), trough, crest, run-up, swash- Waves of translation (and bores) do not always recede – some never,

and others too late to fit our need for survival.

Tsunami – “harbor wave”

2004 – 9.1 Sumatran quake – largest on Earth in 40 yearsWater wave as secondary factor? 305,000 dead

Direct quake deaths?

Alaskan quake of 1964 – about 100 deadChilean quake of 1960 – a few thousand dead

Fukushima, Japan quake of 2011 – 25,000 dead

How well correlated are similar magnitudes to casualties?

Why would sensors be more established in the Pacific basin?

- Historical pattern of quakes- Money, influence, science- Water as a connector – transmitter of energy

Sensors: sea floor – shaking/displacementSurface bouys – compare change in oscillationsGPS between established points

Notice that the book uses ‘seismic waves’ to describe ‘shock’ wave as well

Tsunami wave

Tsunami wave

Earth movement

Earth movement

Fault

As tsunami waves ‘stumble’ on the shoreline:Wave Length Converts to Amplitude

450 mph (500?) slows to 40 mph

Wave length of 60-100 miles converts to a few miles or less

Amplitude increases from a few inches to many feet

How difficult might it be to create a “run-up” map and public safety procedures

for alerts?

A good ePort might look at phone apps and Web search for ‘run up’ map

availability for coastal communities.

How excited might the Chamber of Commerce be to advertise run-up maps?

<Jaws Mayor – “Ok so we had someone eaten by a shark.”

Convert Miles Per Second to Miles Per Hour

Miles per second x 60 = miles per minuteMiles per minute x 60 = miles per hour

P wave: 3.7 mps = 3,600 x 3.7 = 13,320 mphS wave: 1.9 mps = 60 x 60 x 1.9 = 6,840 mph

History Channel said P waves travel at 15,000 mph. It’s OK either way.

- Shock wave in rock or dirt

- Compared to ‘surface’ wave in water

- P waves – compression compared to S that fails in fluids

- History Channel interviewees sometimes did not distinguish between forecast and prediction

- History Channel contradicted the textbook by saying that S waves (secondary) with their lateral motions, are the ones that turn into S (surface waves) - - not Primary waves.

- By definition, P and S waves cause no damage because they are

not where people and buildings are. When they arrive, they become something else (surface waves)

Questions:

Is a P-wave based signal a type of “prediction”, even though the quake is

already under way? <yes>

Is it true that the more you might benefit from a P-wave warning, the less

time you will get? <yes, why?>

Compare Magnitudes: Fukushima and Sumatra quakes = 9.1M to 9.0M (est.)and Chilean 9.5M

• ‘back’ side of ‘Ring of Fire’• Burmese microplate moved 65 feet along 900+

miles – compare to SL area faults (not subductions)• No sensors• No warning devices• (compare to California – 2013, sensors on land, • but lacking funds for implementation)• What is a ‘megathrust’?

Effective warning requires:

1. Instrument detection2. Calculate Magnitude3. Determine type of movement4. Determine potential targets & local vulnerabilities5. Warning delivery:

- from measuring station- to ‘street level’

6. All done in time for people to react usefully

Much has been automated, but gaps remain.

Local Conditions- Shoreline, steepness, stability, angle, vegetation- Population concentration and readiness- Time of day, season, weather- Infrastructure – buildings (codes), transportation, technical

resources and social organization- Response capability – run-up maps- Community wealth and technology- Crowding during evacuation is a common experience

In the Fukushima area, a small town mayor was holding a meeting on emergency preparation and ended up on a flag pole

www.myrvstuff.com

Concentration of energy into narrow beachRocky band along escape route -- stream flow backing up somewhere upstreamNarrow stairs -- crowded stairs. Where are your kids and your flip-flops?Difficult ascent through terrain and vegetationWarning time and method? <siren in the wind or during a party>Tidal condition? Darkness? Inland may actually be lower ground in some placesAllred’s Rule?

P 117 – some people evacuated to mountain tops thousands of feet above sea level – others went down to the beach to watch.

How to View Evacuation Routes

Allred’s rule for situational awareness- What are local hazards and history?- What about RVs and chatterboxes in the way?- What are local rules and resources?- How well prepared am I to move (flip-flops and kids too)

- For tsunami wave, some combination of:- One mile inland- 100 feet above sea level

Types of Warnings- Animal behavior (including elephants)- School girl observation of ocean retreat- Scientist observation of beach rising- Tarot cards?- Change in gases, fluids, precursor quakes, landslides- Science generally requires corroboration and

replicability.- Which of the above might meet tests of science?

Volcano activity can be a precursor to a quake, but quakes are almost

certainly precursors to volcanic eruptions

Volcanoes, uplifts and Trenches

sediments

Slab pull downward re-melts to feed the volcano

Volcano or high mountain

Ocean trench

Subduction zone

Ring of Fire – Ring of Volcanoes

Evaluate these three statements 2. More than 500,000 people live under active threat of vulcanism?

Hawaiian hotspot track shift.

3. About 75% of all volcanoes are on the Ring of Fire?

1. Volcanoes don’t kill people? <Ring of Buildings>

Natural Service Functions

New land areaNew soil-forming & commercial mineralsNew land area above sea levelScenic beautyWhat’s the difference between:Geothermal energy - Milgro Nurseries; and,Geo-exchange - Murray High School?

What’s the difference between a sand blow and a volcano?

Vulcanism – magma reaching near the surface along major transitions

between world-class tectonic plates, and at hot-spots

At most locations, what substance creates the transition between magma and the surface? <12>

How many are there in Utah? <1,500>

Energy Waves

Seismic wavesSound waves

Electromagnetic wavesFluid waves (water)

Average distance from hypocenter or focus to epicenter (surface)

10 miles

How long will the shock wave (P) reaches the nearest possible

seismograph?

Difference between surface rupture and hypocenter may be substantial

SLCC Redwood campus

Notice the lack of magma chambers. What is the transition substance between magma and the surface?

<water>

How does that differ from geo-exchange?

How many of each are there in SL area?

At two minutes of warning, how far away are you likely to be from the

epicenter, or hypocenter?

History Channel also used ‘prediction’ and ‘forecast’

interchangeably.

Does the weathercast?

Do you?

Also, page 67 discusses the wise man who build his house upon the rock . . .

or was it sand, or was it clay?

What is the problem with clay?(Loma Prieta and Nimitz freeway, 1989)

Slow quakes

Calculate how much inadequate creep would lead to a recurrence

interval of 30 years for mega-quakes that release M8.0 or

greater energy?

<Hint: recent mega-quakes have shown earth movements of 10-60 feet, laterally and/or vertically>

Assume 10 feet of mega-movement every 30 years:

1/3 foot (four inches) per year of inadequate ‘slow quake’ or creep per year.

So, a one-to four inch annual creep along a major plate boundary perhaps ought to be

more like four-eight inches per year to prevent mega-quake build-up.

As such, four or more inches of movement per year would, at the

least, mean major quakes annually at many “Ring of Fire” locations.

Perhaps we should stop trying so hard to predict quakes, and simply

prepare for them.

Reverse the concept that modern life is turning hazards into disasters

and disasters into catastrophes:

instead, by making hard choices to fund better infrastructure and

building practices, we turn catastrophes back into merely

‘cracks in the sidewalk.’

The reality is, we want pizza and beer on a Friday night.

Building codes are just too expensive for now. Do it later.

Water Waves

Oscillation – Wind

Translation - Seiche, Tsunami

Bore - Spring, Neap

Notice pictures on page 102: Many areas remained inundated –

water did not go back out because the land submerged or washed away.

Otherwise, community ‘run-up’ maps are helpful. Few communities have them and fewer want to advertise

them.

Cannon Beach, Oregon

Featured on History Channel.

History Channel estimated 20 minutes to tsunami arrival – what was our estimate in class? <20-25>

Evacuation routes – problematic?

Future solution:New city hall with 1,000 person

capacity, flow-through main floor, and emergency supply storage.

Problems:1. Emphasis on future (someday)

2. Narrow staircases on two sides.3. Too many people in town.

Better solution:1. Personal fitness

2. Situational awareness – adapt to conditions to reach higher ground3. Promote and use alert systems.

Are we Prepared?

10% ordinances up-to-date30% ordinances enforced

15% buildings retrofitted or new80% implemented properly

0.1 x 0.3 x 0.15 x 0.8 = ?<0.0036 or 1/3 of one percent>

Wasatch Front Mountains

East side Wasatch – igneous ‘fire rock’ mixed with old sedimentary

West side Oquirrhs – sedimentary uplift infused with igneous intrusions

Lava beds in southern Idaho

old sediments (sandstone) with fossil fuels – oil, coal, gas, shale, tar sand

Volcanoes andcinder cones

Lava beds in southern Utah

Geothermal heat on west side of Utah

Wasatch Plateau – south toward St. George

- sedimentary with fossil fuels

- 12,000 foot tall volcanoes and small cinder cones

further south

Lava beds at south and north ends of Utah

(with Yellowstone ‘hot spot’ and caldera ‘scar’ running across Idaho)

Old sediments dominate eastern Utah, with fossil fuels

(oil, coal, gas, shale, tar sand)

Pyroclastic Flows(you can say ‘tephra’ also)

fast-moving streams of hot gas, ash, rock fragments

and often steam/water/mud

Unzen, Japan built a flow channel for volcanic flows. It was severely over-topped in 1991.

At least they tried.

A 1792 Unzen eruption killed about 15,000 people

Most were killed by a resulting tsunami wave

Channel cut for pyroclastic flow

Ring of Fire – Ring of Buildings?

It is easy to wonder about people in Unzen, but truth is 500,000,000 people live near an active volcano – many living on the flanks or in

debris flow pathways.

Why?

Natural Service Functions- new soil minerals

- nice views- crowding elsewhere

- industrial minerals and metals- often a nice climate and/or near

oceansLand prices are lower after each

catastrophe!

Downside of life near a volcano?

Lahars – mud, hot or cold

gases = CO2, chloric, metallic, sulfuric

rocks, bomblets, ash

2/3 of all volcanoes are located on the ‘Ring of Fire’

magma = molten rockasthenosphere – melts and flows

when close enough to crust to relieve pressure – otherwise solid

metal

Decompression melting

May reach a fracture or hotspot and mix with gases

Why does popcorn pop?

Rock samples – crust is lightweightmostly oxygen, silica, aluminum

plutonic – granite, rhyolite

mafic – low in silica – ‘flow’felsic – high in silica – ‘blow’

Summarize

Earth crust is made of dried, cooled and crystallized rock that was once molten.

The more that magma contain silicates (sticky & viscous) and gases (expansive,popping), the more an eruption will

be explosive.

Heavier, less volative magma will tend to flow slowly over the ground (lava beds)

or cool off deep under the earth and never reach the surface – plutonics

(granite, rhyolite, etc.)

Strato-volcano - layered

Mt. Fuji - Stratovolcano

Mt. St. Helens - Oops

Shield Volcanoestend to be BIG, mild, slow, not explosive

CompareStrato – steep, explosive ‘blow’

Shield – shallow slope, slower flowDome – very explosive

Cinder cones – small (popcorn)Lava beds, heavy, slow

Plutonics – crystals that never made it to the surface

Hot spot - caldera

Mt. Rainier – Seattle area - - Oops?

Kratatoa – changed world weatherMajor quakes changed our clocks

Why does Krakatoa look small right now?

Viscosity = stickiness

- more silica, more viscositymore gas – more pressure

more stickiness plus more gas = more explosive

Utah cinder cone or SP Cone, Arizona?

Utah Geothermal

Three Power plants

20 Recreational hot springs

15 Commercial/Industrial

Geothermal vs Geo-exchange

Milgro

Murray High School