performance o ndian residential arket of indian... · key highlights of the study ... greater...

PROPEQUITY Creating Investor Intelligence

Performance of Indian Residential Market Performance of Indian Real Estate Market

1


PERFORMANCE OF

INDIAN RESIDENTIAL MARKET April, 2010


Performance of Indian Residential Market

Index

Cities Covered for the study

Mumbai

Navi Mumbai

Thane

Gurgaon

Noida

Greater Noida

Ghaziabad

Faridabad

Bangalore

Chennai

Pune

Mohali

Chandigarh

1

2

3

4

Glossary

Real Estate Trends

Key Highlights of the study

New Launch Supply & Absorption

New Launch Supply Break Up (Affordable & Mid Segment)

Absorption Break Up (Affordable & Mid Segment)

Unsold Inventory

Pricing (Affordable & Mid Segment)

Top 5 Developers (Q1 2009 to Q1 2010)

Top 5 selling Apartment Projects (Q1 2009 to Q1 2010)

City Level Analysis

2



Glossary

Note:

1) The analysis covers Apartments, Villas and Independent floors only

2) As per the data availability, the analysis done for cities in NCR & MMR is till February 2010 and for the

remaining cities it is done till January 2010

3) Price Trend is based on Absorption

4) Figures in bracket represent the space in million sqft. for the respective years

5) Top 5 Developers are listed by taking all the project types (Apartments, Villas & Independent floors) into

account that have witnessed Absorption during the period Q1 2009 to Q1 2010

6) Top 5 projects (only apartments) are listed on the basis of highest absorption during the period Q1 2009 to

Q1 2010

New Launch Supply It is the number of units that have been launched in a given period of time

Absorption It is the number of units that have been transacted/sold in a given period of time irrespective of its launch/completion date

Unsold Inventory It is the number of units that remained unsold in a given period of time

Inventory Overhang It is the average time period required to sell off the unsold inventory (calculated on the basis of quarterly sales velocity recorded, over the previous 2 quarters)

3



Growth of Residential Real Estate Market

Uplift in Stock Market

Reduced Ticket Size

Price Correction

Reduced Home Loan Rates

Reduced Inflation Rate

Better Incentives to Customers

Transition Phase Characteristics (April – October 2009)

Boost to Residential Real Estate Market

Sustained GDP growth

Rising Affordability

Large Pool of Highly Skilled Workers

Strong Population Growth/ Favorable Demographics

Urbanization & Nuclearisation Trend in Joint Families

Rising Mortgage Penetration

Greater Integration with World Economy

Improving Regulatory Framework

Increasing Foreign and Domestic Investments

Real Estate Trends

4



Key Highlights

Key Highlights of the Study

FEW TAKERS FOR AFFORDABLE HOUSING: Post the initial euphoria during early 2009, affordable segment has witnessed a gradual decline in absorption levels. However, these levels stand closer to sustainable levels.

Revival of Mid Segment absorption post Q2 2009 across majority of cities: Mid-segment is a major contributor to the increased levels of absorption, often observed surpassing the affordable segment.

Most cities like Mumbai, Gurgaon register a decline in unsold inventory indicating a revival in absorption levels after the recessionary phase.

MMR has witnessed an upward trend in the average transacted prices in the affordable segment, however, mid-segment records no major directional trends.

Prices in NCR have remained stable and witnessed minor corrections. A significant decrease in prices in cities like Noida have enabled a higher absorption velocity.

Chennai and Bengaluru have recorded minor upward pricing trends despite high levels of unsold inventory.

5


Performance of Indian Residential Market 6

Take Aways

MARKET ORIENTATION - ABSORPTION

CITY Q2 2009 Q4 2009

MUMBAI Affordable (58%) Affordable (51%)

NAVI MUMBAI Affordable (70%) Affordable (83%)

THANE Affordable (62%) Affordable (67%)

PUNE Affordable (57%) Mid (61%)

GURGAON Mid (64%) Mid (70%)

NOIDA Mid (71%) Mid (75%)

GREATER NOIDA Mid (54%) Mid (55%)

GHAZIABAD Affordable (50%) Mid (55%)

FARIDABAD Affordable (89%) Affordable (67%)

BENGALURU Mid (69%) Mid (60%)

CHENNAI Affordable (54%) Mid (58%)

CHANDIGARH Mid (80%) Mid (79%)

MOHALI Affordable (52%) Mid (54%)

MARKET ORIENTATION - NEW SUPPLY

CITY Q2 2009 Q4 2009

MUMBAI Affordable (60%) Mid (58%)

NAVI MUMBAI Affordable (79%) Affordable (100%)

THANE Affordable (91%) Affordable (92%)

PUNE Affordable (69%) Mid (64%)

GURGAON Mid (67%) Mid (65%)

NOIDA Affordable (93%) Mid (71%)

GREATER NOIDA Affordable (83%) Affordable (56%)

GHAZIABAD Affordable (100%) Mid (100%)

FARIDABAD Affordable (95%) Affordable (75%)

BENGALURU Affordable (80%) Mid (53%)

CHENNAI Affordable (76%) Affordable (73%)

CHANDIGARH No Launches No Launches

MOHALI Affordable (92%) No Launches



Mumbai

7



Mumbai

304 (0.2)

1,177 (0.9)

8,173 (5.9)

1,572 (0.9)

1,319 (1.4)

542 (0.4)

532 (0.4)

566 (0.5)

1,995 ( 2.3)

2,545 (2.4)

1,027 (1.6) 447 (0.4)

738 (0.7)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

Un

its

New Launch Supply - Break Up

Affordable Segment (<=30 Lakh) Mid Segment (>30 - 75 Lakh)

1,739 (1.3)

922 (0.7)

4,474 (3.5) 3,602

(2.2) 1,968 (1.5)

2,223 (1.7)

1,344 (1.2)

1,822 (1.8)

1,190 (1.2)

2,053 (2.0) 2,637 (2.6)

1,620 (1.6) 2,173 (2.1)

1,130 (1.1)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

Un

its

Absorption - Break Up


Figures in bracket represent the space in million sqft Source:PropEquity Research, 2010 1,503 (1.6)

4,180 (4.8)

12,220 (10.4)

3,412 (3.3) 2,815

(4.5)

4,188 (7.2)

2,202 (4.1)

6,031 (6.8)

3,466 (3.9)

8,406 (8.3)

8,611 (8.5)

5,879 (6.9)

7,300 (8.7)

4,243 (5.3)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

un

its


New Launch Supply Absorption

Source:PropEquity Research, 2010

Note: A) Supply consists of Apartments, Villas and Independent floors only. B) New Launch Supply implies the number of units that have been launched in a given period of time. C) Absorption implies the number of units that have been transacted in a given period of time irrespective of its launch/completion date

Figures in bracket represent the space in million sqft

Absorption velocity registers a dip after a very impressive

first half 2009. The average monthly absorption stands at

2,200 units/month in Q2,2009 down from +2,800 units

during first half 2009.

Registering a fresh spurt of launches of +12,000 units in

Q1,2009, the New launches stabilized around 3,500

units/quarter. * - Data Available till February 2010

8



28,932 (35.0)

29,641 (35.9) 33,437

(38.3) 27,778 (32.0) 25,150

(29.8) 22,033 (28.20)

19,992 (26.8)

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Inve

nto

ry O

verh

ang

(Qu

arte

rs)

No

. of

Un

its

Unsold Inventory

unsold Inventory (Units) Inventory Overhang (RHS)


Note: Price trend is based on absorption


Number of Projects Units

Ongoing Projects 496 89,078

Affordable Segment 63 19,995

Mid Segment 113 18,940

2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 2,600 2,700 2,800 2,900

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)

Price Trends - Affordable Segment

Apartments

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)

Price Trends - Mid Segment

Apartments

Raheja Legends

Mumbai

9




Top 5 Selling Apartment Projects (Based on absorption from Q1- 2009- Q1-2010)

Sr No

Project Name

Developer Name

Colony Name

Launched Sqft

Launched Units

Absorption (Sqft)

Absorption (Units)

Current Absorption

(%)

Avg Unit Size Sqft

Wt Average Price

(INR/Sqft)

Launch Date

Completion Date

1 Rustomjee Evershine

Global City Rustomjee

Group Virar 2,360,000 4,000 1,840,800 3,120 81 590 4,777 Jan-09 Dec-11

2 Orchid Ozone Dynamix

Balwas Group Dahisar(E) 2,566,000 3,500 2,078,460 2,835 81 728 4,248 Mar-09 Apr-13

3 Shubh Griha Tata Bhoisar (E) 460,000 1,240 460,000 1,240 100 374 1,379 May-09 May-11

4 New Haven Tata Bhoisar (E) 1,332,000 1,300 1,012,320 988 76 1,025 2,212 Sep-09 Dec-11

5 Premier Residences HDIL Kurla 711,000 900 675,450 855 95 790 6,351 Mar-09 Dec-11

Note :A) Absorption implies the number of units that have been sold during Q1-2009 to Q1-2010 B) Current Absorption refers to the percentage of units sold till date.

IMPRESSIVE REDUCTION IN UNSOLD INVENTORY: Unsold

inventory has registered a decline from +33,000 units in Q1

2009 to 20,000 units in Q1 2010 – primarily on account of

very healthy sign of absorption during first half of 2009

AFFORDABLE SEGMENT WITNESSING UPWARD PRICE

TREND: After a correction phase during Q2 & Q3 2009,

prices exhibit an upward trend, though the transaction

volumes have dipped along with a shift towards smaller

units (with higher BSP)

MID SEGMENT REGISTERS STABLE PRICING : Mid segment

exhibits stability in both, price & absorption trends Note :All the project types (apartments, villas and independent floors) have

been considered for computing this analysis

Mumbai

10

10%

9%

7%

6%

3% 65%

Top 5 Developers - Based on absorption during the period Q1-2009 to Q1-2010

Dynamix Balwas Group

Rustomjee Group

Tata

HDIL

Lodha Group

Others



Navi Mumbai

11



544 (0.6)

17,796 (9.4)

2,392 (1.7)

195 (0.3)

1,725 (2.6)

2,580 ( 2.0)

70 (0.1)

1,306 (1.7)

3,684 (1.9) 3,190

(2.5) 2,906 (2.4) 2,391

(2.2)

4,547 (4.6)

2,335 (2.0)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

un

its






Figures in bracket represent the space in million sqft Source:PropEquity Research, 2010

56

15,716 (6.1)

1,827 (1.0) 56

1,454 (1.9)

2,580 (2.0) 42

456 (0.5)

1,554 (1.9)

473 (0.6)

114 (0.2)

271 (0.7)

-

28 -

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

Un

its



172 (0.1)

3,149 (1.2) 2,175

(1.0) 1,868 (0.9)

1,359 (0.7)

3,544 (2.8)

1,765 (1.1)

847 (1.0)

423 (0.5)

788 (1.0)

805 (1.0) 818

(1.0)

719 (1.1)

371 (0.5)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

Un

its



Absorption levels revived in Q4 2009 after declining for 3

straight quarters. The spurt can be accounted to the

increased activity in the affordable segment.

There have been sporadic new launches after a massive

launch of +17,00 units during Q4 2008.

* - Data Available till February 2010

12

Navi Mumbai




Number of Projects

Units





5,636 (7.8)

19,749 (16.1) 18,953

(15.2) 16,242 (12.9)

15,576 (12.6) 13,610

(10.4) 11,347 (8.4)

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Inve

nto

ry O

verh

ang

(Qu

arte

rs)

No

. of

Un

its

Unsold Inventory


Note: Price trend is based on absorption Source:PropEquity Research, 2010

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)


Apartments

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)


Apartments Villas

Sea Lounge

Navi Mumbai

13




Top 5 Selling Projects (Based on absorption from Q1- 2009- Q1-2010)

Sr No

Project Name

Developer Name

Colony Name

Launched Sqft

Launched Units

Absorption (Sqft)

Absorption (Units)

Current Absorption

(%)

Avg Unit Size Sqft

Wt Average Price

(INR/Sqft)

Launch Date

Completion Date

1 Tanaji Malusare City Matheran

Realty Karjat 5,250,000 15,000 1,627,500 4,650 52 350 1,242 Oct-08 Mar-12

2 Hex City Armstrong Kharghar 1,050,000 1,320 997,500 1,254 95 796 2,650 Dec-09 Dec-12

3 Swarajya complex Neptune

Group Ambivili 600,000 1,500 480,000 1,200 80 419 1,687 Mar-09 Jun-11

4 Hex World Armstrong Sanpada 919,000 1,260 873,050 1,197 95 730 3,256 Dec-09 Dec-12

5 Greens IREL

(Indiabulls) Panvel 2,349,000 1,500 1,714,770 1,095 75 1,566 2,900 Sep-09 Sep-12


HIGH LEVELS OF UNSOLD INVENTORY: Though declining,

unsold inventory levels are inflated owing to massive new

launch of +17,000 units in Q4 2008

AFFORDABLE SEGMENT PRICING EXHIBITS UPWARD TREND:

Affordable segment records an increase in average

transacted prices Q4 2008 onwards

STABLE PRICES OBSERVED IN MID SEGMENT : Mid segment

housing exhibits a flat price trend with no notable

directional movement

Note :All the project types (apartments, villas and independent floors) have been considered for computing this analysis

Navi Mumbai

14

31%

16%

8% 7%

4%

34%


Matheran Realty

Armstrong

Neptune Group

IREL (Indiabulls)

Hiranandani

Other



Thane

15



1,006 (1.1)

1,598 (1.7)

11,494 (8.9)

718 (0.6)

470 (0.6)

3,454 (3.1)

119 (0.2)

2,253 (2.4)

1,443 (1.6)

4,451 (3.8)

4,187 (3.9)

4,117 (4.0)

5,142 (4.8)

2,289 (2.1)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

un

its






613 (0.5)

515 (0.4)

2,924 (2.1)

2,491 (1.9)

2,299 (1.8)

3,333 (2.7)

1,215 (0.9)

1,331 (1.4) 734 ( 0.9)

1,454 (1.5)

1,504 (1.7)

1,620 (1.8)

1,639 (1.8)

953 (1.0)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

Un

its




71 397 (0.2)

9,388 (7.0)

642 (0.5)

304 (0.2)

3,146 (2.6)

90 (0.1)

936 (1.1)

1,200 (1.5)

2,108 (1.9)

62 (0.1)

90 (0.1)

256 (0.3)

- -

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

Un

its



Absorption levels recorded a decrease over last 3

consecutive quarters ending Q3 2009. However, Q4 2009

witnessed an increase in the absorption levels.

With an average monthly velocity of 900+ units for the

year 2009, Thane witnessed healthy absorption levels in

the sub INR 30 Lakhs ticket price projects. * - Data Available till February 2010

Thane

16









11,927 (13.8)

12,081 (13.9)

19,126 (19.4)

15,655 (16.0)

12,008 (12.4) 10,320

(10.6) 8,149 (8.6)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Inve

nto

ry O

verh

ang

(Qu

arte

rs)

No

. of

Un

its

Unsold Inventory - Break Up



1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)


Apartments Villas

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)


Apartments Villas

Lodha Paradise

Thane

17





Sr No

Project Name

Developer Name

Colony Name

Launched Sqft

Launched Units

Absorption (Sqft)

Absorption (Units)

Current Absorption

(%)

Avg Unit Size Sqft

Wt Average Price

(INR/Sqft)

Launch Date

Completion Date

1 Casabella Lodha Group Dombivali(E) 3,000,000 3,600 3,000,000 3,600 100 841 2,331 Mar-09 Oct-12

2 Haware Citi Haware Ghodbundar

Road 1,936,000 3,000 1,452,000 2,250 75 646 3,500 Jan-09 Apr-12

3 Casa Bella Gold Lodha Group Dombivali(E) 2,413,000 2,870 1,327,150 1,579 55 841 2,655 Oct-09 Sep-12

4 Casa Univis Lodha Group Ghodbundar

Road 1,478,000 1,346 1,005,040 915 100 1,098 3,285 Dec-08 Jun-11

5 Green Woods Akruti

Nirman Vartak Nagar 818,000 1,020 613,500 765 75 802 4,700 Jan-09 Dec-13


DECLINE IN UNSOLD INVENTORY: Unsold inventory records a

constant decrease Q1 2009 onwards owing to healthy

absorption levels and decrease in new launches

AFFORDABLE HOUSING LOSING COMPETITIVENESS:

Transacted prices in affordable segment have witnessed an

upward trend Q2 2009 onwards for villa and apartment

projects

MID SEGMENT DEMAND REVIVAL: Projects between > INR 30-75

lakhs ticket price witnessed increase in the absorption levels in

the year 2009 with an average monthly velocity of 500+ units


Thane

18

36%

12%

4% 3%

3%

43%


Lodha Group

Haware

Akruti Nirman

Regency

Everest Developer

Other



Gurgaon

19



6,366

4,644

10,294

3,808

6,569

3,785

2,818

3,959

1,366

4,474

6,627 6,934 7,081

4,665

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

un

its







875 (1.2)

1,138 (1.1)

6,925 (7.3)

1,268 (1.5)

1,653 (2.0)

1,210 (1.1)

0

4,846 (8.8)

3,463 (6.7)

3,149 (4.9)

2,529 (3.8)

4,134 (6.3)

2,276 (3.1)

2,446 (4.3)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

Un

its



311 (0.4)

214 (0.3)

1,954 (2.1)

2,234 (2.5)

1,792 (2.1)

1,666 (1.9)

1,120 (1.3)

2,810 (5.1)

954 (1.8)

2,011 (3.2)

3,939 (6.2) 4,286 (7.1)

3,976 (6.2)

2,515 (4.1)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

Un

its



Absorption levels have bounced back to scale the peaks as

previously recorded during early 2008. Healthy absorption

trend is recorded Q4 2008 onwards with a steady Q-o-Q

increase.

Affordable segment is a marginal participant to the growth

story with mid-segment & higher being major contributors. * - Data Available till February 2010

Gurgaon

20









17,871 (40.7)

21,152 (46.1)

26,976 (52.5) 24,157

(47.5) 23,792 (46.2)

20,494 (38.1) 18,645

(34.9)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Inve

nto

ry O

verh

ang

(Qu

arte

rs)

No

. of

Un

its

Unsold Inventory



1,500 1,700 1,900 2,100 2,300 2,500 2,700 2,900

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)


Apartments Villas Independent Floors

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)



Regency Park II

Gurgaon

21



Source:PropEquity Research, 2010 Source:PropEquity Research, 2010


Sr No

Project Name

Developer Name

Colony Name

Launched Sqft

Launched Units

Absorption (Sqft)

Absorption (Units)

Current Absorption

(%)

Avg Unit Size Sqft

Wt Average Price

(INR/Sqft)

Launch Date

Completion Date

1 Gulmohar woods Falcon

Builders Dharuhera 5,275,000 5,000 2,743,000 2,600 52 1,055 1,700 Jan-09 Jan-12

2 The Residences Unitech Sector 33 1,600,000 1,344 1,600,000 1,344 100 1,185 3,507 Apr-09 Jun-12

3 Pioneer Park Pioneer

Urban Land Sector 61 1,524,000 884 1,524,000 884 100 1,725 3,300 Jan-09 Jun-13

4 Uniworld Gardens -II Unitech Sector 47 860,000 750 860,000 750 100 1,146 2,995 Feb-09 Jul-12

5 Sunbreeze Unitech Sector 69 1,019,000 624 998,620 612 98 1,634 2,900 Jul-09 Dec-12

Note :A) Absorption implies the number of units that have been sold during Q1-2009 to Q1-2010 B) Current Absorption refers to the pecentage of units sold till date.

FEWER TAKERS FOR AFFORDABLE HOUSING: The

phenomenon of affordable housing is well past the initial

euphoria, with sales gradually declining post Q1 2009

MID & HIGHER SEGMENT SCRIPTING GROWTH STORY: On

account of higher absorption in the mid and higher housing

segment, the absorption trend shows a remarkable recovery

PRICE CORRECTION AND STABILIZATION: Price trends

exhibit a correction during late 2008 encouraging stability,

which further enables a higher absorption velocity on

grounds of rational pricing


Gurgaon

22

13%

9%

9%

8%

5%

57%


Unitech

Vatika Group

Falcon Builders

Emaar MGF

DLF

Other



Noida

23



758 (1.3)

2,288 (4.0)

3,779 (5.8)

6,486 (6.3)

14,605 (20.3)

6,558 (9.9)

15,503 (23.7)

696 (1.2)

766 (1.3)

1,165 (1.9)

6,945 (8.7)

7,193 (9.9)

7,125 (10.5)

8,321 (12.5)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

un

its






- 290 (0.2)

236 (0.2)

4,649 (4.9)

2,341 (2.0)

1,626 (1.4)

2,159 (1.9) 277 (0.4)

281 (0.4)

749 (1.2)

1,929 (2.8)

4,395 (6.7)

5,006 (7.8)

5,440 (8.6)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 N

o. o

f U

nit

s


Affordable Segment(<=30 Lakh) Mid Segment (>30 - 75 Lakh)


-

1,015 (0.8)

160 (0.1)

6,000 (5.6) 4,160

(3.6) 1,922 (1.8)

4,667 (4.4) 435 (0.6)

633 (1.0)

3,415 (5.2)

449 (0.6)

9,590 (14.4)

4,636 (8.1)

9,468 (15.8)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

Un

its



The Noida residential market has witnessed the highest

supply entering a market in any Indian city Q3 2009

onwards.

The market has also recorded a significant increment in

absorption levels after the lull phase of Q3 2008 to Q1

2009.


Noida

24









2,729 (6.6)

4,251 (8.8)

6,865 (12.9)

6,406 (11.0)

13,818 (21.8)

13,250 (20.9)

20,347 (32.2)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Inve

nto

ry O

verh

ang

(Qu

arte

rs)

No

. of

Un

its

Unsold Inventory

unsold Inventory Inventory Overhang (RHS)


2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 3,600 3,800

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)


Apartments

2,500

2,700

2,900

3,100

3,300

3,500

3,700

3,900

4,100

4,300

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)


Apartments

ATS Village

Noida

25





Sr No

Project Name

Developer Name

Colony Name

Launched Sqft

Launched Units

Absorption (Sqft)

Absorption (Units)

Current Absorption

(%)

Avg Unit Size Sqft

Wt Average Price

(INR/Sqft)

Launch Date

Completion Date

1 Kosmos Jaypee Sector 134 5,928,000 5,700 5,335,200 5,130 90 1,040 2,975 Jul-09 Jun-14

2 Aman Jaypee Sector 151 3,800,000 3,500 3,800,000 3,500 100 1,085 2,100 May-09 Dec-14

3 Lotus Boulevard 3C Group Sector 100 5,175,000 3,500 4,398,750 2,975 85 1,439 3,275 Jul-09 Jun-13

4 Sapphire Amrapali

Group Sector 45 3,289,000 2,200 3,058,770 2,046 93 1,495 3,800 Mar-09 Dec-12

5 Unihomes Unitech Sector 117 1,812,000 2,500 1,214,040 1,675 67 725 3,062 Jun-09 Jun-12

Note :A) Absorption implies the number of units that have been sold during Q1-2009 to Q1-2010 B) Current Absorption refers to the pecentage of units sold till date.

INCREASE IN UNSOLD INVENTORY: On grounds of massive

influx of supply, Noida residential market has witnessed an

increase in unsold inventory

PRICE CORRECTION: On account of flooding of the market,

prices in both affordable and mid-segment stand corrected

and are unlikely to appreciate in the short to mid term

HIGHLY DOMINATED MARKET: Unlike most of the other

markets in the country, Noida is a highly dominated market

with top 3 developers accounting for +50% of the total sales


Noida

26

35%

17% 14%

6%

6%

22%


Jaypee

Amrapali Group

3C Group

Unitech

Gardenia India

Other



Greater Noida

27



555 (0.9)

652 (0.9)

1,600 (2.0)

-

1,610 (2.0)

2,240 (2.9)

5,745 (5.7)

705 (1.2)

453 (0.8)

1,204 (2.0) 955

(1.5)

1,170 (1.8)

1,784 (2.7)

2,227 (3.1)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

un

its






6 42

551 (0.5)

395 (0.3)

600 (0.5)

738 (0.7)

1,194 (1.1)

536 (0.9) 332 (0.6)

561 (1.2) 460 (0.9)

446 (0.8)

903 (1.6)

939 (1.8)

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 N

o. o

f U

nit

s




-

351 (0.2)

1,330 (1.3)

-

1,030 (1.1)

976 (0.9)

5,550 (5.2)

222 (0.3)

193 (0.3)

270 (0.7)

-

580 (0.9)

1,264 (2.0)

146 (0.4)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

Un

its



Greater Noida residential market exhibits an increased

activity on both – launch and absorption front.

The above exhibit indicates that the affordable and mid-

segment have a similar preference as their share in the

increased absorption remains almost constant. * - Data Available till February 2010

Greater Noida

28









6,761 (12.6)

6,960 (12.6)

7,356 (12.3)

6,401 (10.9)

6,841 (11.3)

7,297 (11.7)

10,816 (13.9)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Inve

nto

ry O

verh

ang

(Qu

arte

rs)

No

. of

Un

its

Unsold Inventory


1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)


Apartments

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)


Apartments Villas


Eldeco Riviera

Greater Noida

29





Sr No

Project Name

Developer Name

Colony Name

Launched Sqft

Launched Units

Absorption (Sqft)

Absorption (Units)

Current Absorption

(%)

Avg Unit Size Sqft

Wt Average Price

(INR/Sqft)

Launch Date

Completion Date

1 Megapolis-Fairway Ansal API Dadri 1,614,000 1,100 1,420,320 968 88 1,468 1,890 Jan-09 Dec-13

2 Palm Green Omaxe Sector-MU 3,375,000 1,900 1,586,250 893 80 1,777 2,100 Jan-08 Jun-11

3 Kings Park Today Homes & Infrastructure

Sector Omega-1

687,000 550 563,340 451 82 1,250 2,100 Jul-09 Feb-13

4 Eco Village Supertech

Limited Sector 1 2,062,000 1,460 515,500 365 25 1,412 2,137 Mar-10 Dec-13

5 Privilege Parsvnath

Developers Sector Pi-2 1,810,000 976 669,700 361 85 1,855 3,350 Jan-07 Dec-11


SPURT IN NEW LAUNCHES DURING Q1 2010: The quarter

witnessed launch of +5,500 units in the affordable segment during

first 2 months of 2010, resulting in increased unsold inventory

AFFORDABLE SEGMENT RECORDS STABLE PRICES: Prices have

stabilized around the Rs.2,250/ Sft levels after bottoming out in

Q1 2009

UNDER PRESSURE FROM SECONDARY MARKET OFFERINGS, MID-

SEGMENT REGISTERS MINOR PRICE CORRECTION: The mid-

segment housing registers a minor correction, which may be due

to pressure from re-sale supply in the market at competitive

prices


Greater Noida

30

17%

13%

9%

6% 6%

48%


Ansal API

Omaxe

Supertech Limited

Parsvnath Developers Today Homes & Infrastructure Other



Ghaziabad

31



6,066 (8.1)

612 (1.1)

3,756 (4.7)

1,200 (1.3)

1,212 (1.6)

308 (0.4)

600 (0.7)

3,690 (5.6)

1,140 (1.8)

2,051 (2.9)

2,682 (3.9) 2,440

(3.6)

3,012 (4.4)

2,158 (3.1)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

un

its







3,578 (3.9)

80 (0.1)

2,607 (3.0) 1,200

(1.3) 717 (0.7) -

420 (0.5)

2,488 (3.8)

532 (1.0)

1,149 (1.8)

- 495 (0.8)

308 (0.4) 180 (0.2)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

Un

its



1,244 (1.4) 372

(0.4)

1,023 (1.2)

1,303 (1.4)

1,024 (1.1)

1,335 (1.5)

942 (1.0)

2,344 (3.9)

721 (1.2)

983 (1.6)

1,328 (2.3) 1,385 (2.3)

1,624 (2.7)

1,191 (2.0)

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 N

o. o

f U

nit

s



Absorption levels have stabilized at a mark down of 30-40%

from the previously recorded peaks during early 2008.

The new launches have dried up in the Ghaziabad market

after a massive launch of + 6,000 units in Q3 2008.


Ghaziabad

32










22,363 (34.9) 21,834

(34.3)

23,539 (36.2) 22,057

(33.6) 20,828 (31.6) 18,124

(27.5) 16,566 (25.1)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Inve

nto

ry O

verh

ang

(Qu

arte

rs)

No

. of

Un

its

Unsold Inventory


1,850

1,900

1,950

2,000

2,050

2,100

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)


Apartments

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)


Apartments

Orange County

Ghaziabad

33





Sr No

Project Name

Developer Name

Colony Name Launched

Sqft Launched

Units Absorption

(Sqft) Absorption

(Units)

Current Absorption

(%)

Avg Unit Size Sqft

Wt Average Price

(INR/Sqft)

Launch Date

Completion Date

1 Mahagunpuram Mahagun NH-24 Bypass 1,320,000 1,200 594,000 540 45 1,100 1,850 May-09 Mar-12

2 Crossings Republic Crossings

Infrastrusture Crossings NH-24 3,870,000 2,600 774,000 520 90 1,497 2,415 Jan-07 Apr-12

3 Primrose Panchshel Builtech

Govindapuram 1,544,000 1,400 463,200 420 45 1,103 1,562 Jul-08 Dec-11

4 Living Stone Supertech

Limited Crossings NH-24 2,266,000 1,550 611,820 419 60 1,462 2,187 Apr-07 Dec-12

5 Integrity Ajnara Farms Raj Nagar Extension

827,000 600 554,090 402 75 1,377 2,024 Aug-08 Oct-11


DECLINE IN UNSOLD INVENTORY: With a marked decline in

new launches, unsold inventory records a decline

PRICE CORRECTION ACROSS AFFORDABLE AND MID-

SEGMENT HOUSING: The shift of buying activity to emergent

centers of more affordable housing options like Raj Nagar

Extension and Crossings Republic, has lead to the correction

of the average transacted price in the Ghaziabad market


Ghaziabad

6% 6%

6%

6%

5%

70%


Ajnara Farms

Mahagun

Panchshel Builtech

Gaursons India

LandCraft Developers Other

34



Faridabad

35



4,471 (6.6)

1,052 (1.5)

164 (0.1)

8,173 (9.9)

2,120 (3.1)

-

654 (1.0)

2,738 (4.3)

959 (1.0)

1,436 (2.3)

7,626 (9.7)

3,226 (4.9)

1,517 (2.2)

857 (1.4)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

un

its







2,494 (3.2) 659

(0.8)

164 (0.1)

7,796 (9.2)

1,620 (2.1) - 165 (0.1)

1,900 (3.2)

163 (0.3)

-

377 (0.7)

500 (0.6)

-

490 (0.8)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

Un

its



1,435 (1.8)

605 (0.7)

711 (0.8)

6,757 (8.1)

1,893 (2.2)

989 (1.2)

348 (0.4)

1,185 (1.6)

294 (0.5) 656 (1.2)

808 (1.5)

1,271 ( 2.1)

489 (0.9) 482 (0.9)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 N

o. o

f U

nit

s



Fresh supply in the Faridabad market is dominated by

Affordable housing with 80% of the new launches belonging

to this category.

A major spurt in buying activity is observed in Q2 2009 which

coincides with the launch of BPTP Elite Floors at Rs. 1,835/

Sft. Around 4,000 units from this project ware sold during

the quarter


Faridabad

36










10,771 (17.6)

10,863 (18.5)

9,592 (16.3) 10,139

(16.4) 9,032 (14.7)

7,515 (12.5)

7,309 (12.1)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Inve

nto

ry O

verh

ang

(Qu

arte

rs)

No

. of

Un

its

Unsold Inventory


1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)



1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)


Apartments Villas

BPTP Elite Floors - Impression

Faridabad

37





Sr No

Project Name

Developer Name


Sqft Launched

Units Absorption

(Sqft) Absorption

(Units)

Current Absorption

(%)

Avg Unit Size Sqft

Wt Average Price

(INR/Sqft)

Launch Date

Completion Date

1 Park Elite BPTP Sector 85 663,000 600 663,000 600 100 1,104 2,000 Jun-09 Jul-11

2 Rhythm RPS Group Sector 89 2,870,000 1,880 889,700 583 56 1,530 2,100 Jul-08 Feb-13

3 Park Towers BPTP Sector 77 632,000 550 530,880 462 100 1,150 2,307 Oct-08 Jun-11

4 Royal Hills (Faridabad Residency)

SRS Real Estate Sector 87 1,681,000 1,257 605,160 453 70 1,337 2,115 May-07 Dec-12

5 Galaxy Triveni

Infrastructure Sector 78 5,100,000 3,000 459,000 270 90 1,710 1,900 Jan-07 Apr-11


SPURT OF ACTIVITY IN Q2 2009 IN AN OTHERWISE DORMANT

MARKET: Q2 2009 figures stand out in an otherwise dormant

market which might be attributed to a single project of BPTP

Elite Floors

MINOR CORRECTION IN AFFORDABLE SEGMENT APARTMENT

PRICING: Slight correction is witnessed in the affordable

segment apartments on grounds of slower absorption and a

shift of investor activity towards plotted development

MID SEGMENT WITNESSING UPWARD PRICE TREND: Built up

housing in the mid-segment is registering a slight increase

owing to limited availability and activity in the end user

market Note :All the project types (apartments, villas and independent floors) have


Faridabad

43%

12% 6%

6%

5%

28%


BPTP

SRS Real Estate

Era Landmarks

RPS Group

Triveni Infrastructure Other

38



Bangalore

39







3,970 (7.7)

5,420 (9.1)

3,863 (4.7)

2,010 (3.5)

4,243 (6.2)

2,941 (4.2)

1,258 (1.7)

6,866 (11.9)

3,026 (5.0)

5,035 (7.9) 4,883

(8.1)

5,473 (8.9)

6,319 (10.2)

1,904 (3.2)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

un

its

Supply & Absorption


1,295 (1.5)

786 (0.9)

2,746 (2.8)

1,193 (1.1)

2,579 (2.6)

1,282 (1.2)

471 (0.4)

1,664 (2.7)

4,162 (6.3)

1,004 (1.6)

287 (0.5)

1,224 (2.0)

1,451 (2.4)

787 (1.3)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

Un

its


Affordable Segment (<=30 Lakh) Mid Segment(>30 - 75 Lakh)

1,341 (1.4)

504 (0.5)

1,739 (1.8)

1,355 (1.4)

1,994 (2.1)

2,179 (2.2) 572

(0.6)

4,375 (7.0)

2,139 (3.3)

2,826 (4.5)

2,948 (4.8)

2,828 (4.5)

3,322 (5.3)

1,043 (1.7)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 N

o. o

f U

nit

s



*

* - Data Available till January 2010

*

*

Steady increase in absorption velocity over last 3 quarters

ending at Q4 2009. Average monthly absorption velocity is

up at +2,100 units in Q4 2009 from 1,650 units in Q1.

Cumulative fresh launches outnumber the absorption over

the last 7 quarters ending Q1 2010 in the affordable

segment.

Bangalore

40










35,426 (62.4)

37,820 (66.7)

36,648 (63.4) 33,775

(58.8) 32,545 (56.1) 29,167

(50.1) 28,522 (48.8)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Inve

nto

ry O

verh

ang

(Qu

arte

rs)

No

. of

Un

its

Unsold Inventory

Unsold Inventory Inventory Overhang (RHS)

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)


Apartments Villas

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)


Apartments Villas


*

*

*

Brigade Paramount

Bangalore

41




Top 5 Selling Apartment Projects (Based on absorption from Q1- 2009- Q1-2010*)

Sr No

Project Name

Developer Name

Colony Name

Launched Sqft

Launched Units

Absorption (Sqft)

Absorption (Units)

Current Absorption

(%)

Avg Unit Size Sqft

Wt Average Price

(INR/Sqft)

Launch Date

Completion Date

1 Westend Heights-New

Town DLF BTM Layout 2,870,000 1,976 2,009,000 1,383 80 1,452 2,300 Oct-08 Aug-12

2 Smondoville Patel

Developers Electronic

City

940,000 1,100 846,000 990 90 855 2,350 Oct-09 Mar-13

3 Welworth City Puravankara Doddaballap

ur 1,069,000 1,056 855,200 845 80 1,012 1,967 Jul-09 Apr-12

4 Jackson Brigade Group

White Field 1,980,000 1,500 930,600 705 80 1,320 4,250 Feb-08 Jun-11

5 Brigade Metropolis Brigade Group

White Field 2,233,000 1,618 602,910 437 90 1,380 3,440 Oct-06 Jun-11



DECLINE IN UNSOLD INVENTORY: Owing to a partial

bounce back in absorption levels, the unsold inventory

records a constant decrease Q4 2008 onwards

AFFORDABLE HOUSING LOSING COMPETITIVENESS:

Transacted prices in affordable segment have witnessed

an upward trend Q1 2009 onwards

MID SEGMENT RECORDS STABLE PRICING, MARGINAL

DECLINE: Average transacted prices in the mid-segment

exhibit stable levels with a correction in villa prices

Note :All the project types (apartments, villas and independent floors) have


Bangalore

7.1%

5.5%

5.5% 3.5% 3.0%

75.3%


Brigade Group

Puravankara

DLF

Patel Developers

Orange Properties

Other

42



Chennai

43







3,034 (3.4)_

2,946 (3.5)

5,339 (6.4)

3,653 (3.3)

1,995 (2.0)

1,013 (1.2)

1,216 (1.1)

2,882 (4.3)

1,835 (2.6)

3,448 (4.5)

4,034 (5.1)

3,447 (4.5)

3,536 (4.7)

974 (1.2)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

un

its



1,399 (1.1)

1,242 (0.9)

3,984 (4.1)

2,612 (1.7)

1,295 (1.0)

705 (0.7)

932 (0.8)

1,632 (2.3)

1,558 (2.4)

1,142 (1.9)

802 (1.1)

641 (0.8)

255 (0.3) 257 (0.2)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

Un

its



464 (0.4)

441 (0.3)

1,505 (1.4)

2,052 (1.9)

1,681 (1.5)

1,370 (1.2) 462

(0.4)

2,010 (3.0)

1,216 (1.8)

1,734 (2.6)

1,754 (2.7)

1,573 (2.5)

1,874 (2.8)

431 (0.6)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 N

o. o

f U

nit

s




*

*

*

New Launches dry up while absorption velocity stabilizes

at +1,200 units/month during 2009.

Absorption velocity in the affordable segment registers a

gradual decline over 3 consecutive quarters ending Q4

2009.

Chennai

44










16,395 (22.9)

17,506 (24.0)

19,396 (25.6) 19,015

(24.2) 17,562 (21.8) 15,038

(18.6)

15,281 (18.5)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Inve

nto

ry O

verh

ang

(Qu

arte

rs)

No

. of

Un

its

Unsold Inventory


1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

2,900

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)


Apartments Villas

2,500

2,700

2,900

3,100

3,300

3,500

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)


Apartments Villas

*

*

*


Akshaya Homes

Chennai

45







Sr No

Project Name

Developer Name

Colony Name

Launched Sqft

Launched Units

Absorption (Sqft)

Absorption (Units)

Current Absorption

(%)

Avg Unit Size Sqft

Wt Average Price

(INR/Sqft) Launch Date

Completion Date

1 Cosmo City Puravankara Pudupakkam 1,511,000 1,597 1,133,250 1,198 75 946 1,919 Jan-09 Dec-11

2 (Ananda-

Bhrama)North Town Unitech Perambur 1,090,000 1,100 1,090,000 1,100 100 992 3,000 May-09 Mar-12

3 Bollineni Hillside BSCPL

Infrastructure OMR Road 1,277,000 700 893,900 490 75 1,825 2,600 Mar-09 Mar-11

4 Orchid Springs Alliance Group Padi 1,347,000 1,000 606,150 450 60 1,347 3,200 Dec-08 Mar-12

5 Pushpadruma Marg

Constructions Kalavakkam 496,000 466 411,680 387 85 1,065 2,199 Jan-09 Jan-11

SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN NEW LAUNCH ACTIVITY: Fresh

launches have declined constantly over 4 straight quarters

ending Q4 2009

AFFORDABLE SEGMENT RETAINS PRICE LEVELS,

FLUCTUATIONS WITNESSED: Despite fluctuations,

affordable housing prices do not exhibit directional trends

MID SEGMENT WITNESSING UPWARD PRICE TREND :

Apartment & Villa prices witness an upward trend Q2 2009

onwards


Chennai

9%

9%

5%

4%

4%

69%


Unitech

Puravankara

Marg Constructions

Alliance Group

BSCPL Infrastructure Other

46



Pune

47







4,623 (5.9)

5,916 (6.0)

3,250 (4.3)

7,838 (7.7)

2,883 (3.6)

2,740 (2.9)

340 (0.6)

7,509 (9.7)

3,674 (4.0)

6,047 (7.1)

11,126 (12.2)

7,717 (9.5)

6,338 (7.7)

1,782 (2.1)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010*

No

. of

un

its



1,423 (1.2)

3,852 (3.0) 1,668

(1.0)

5,300 (4.1)

1,129 (1.0)

970 (0.7)

120 (0.1)

3,093 (4.4)

1,949 (2.4)

1,042 (1.4)

2,400 (3.3)

1,738 (2.6) 1,718 (2.0)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010*

No

. of

Un

its



2,158 (1.8)

1,805 (1.5)

2,648 (2.1)

6,060 (4.8)

3,114 (2.6)

2,319 (1.9)

762 (0.6)

4,806 (6.5)

1,733 (2.2)

3,080 (4.1)

4,648 (6.3)

4,133 (5.6) 3,638 (4.8)

887 (1.2)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010*

No

. of

Un

its




Q2 2009 witnessed the highest residential activity in terms

of new launches and absorption both.

Share of mid segment in absorption has increased from 47%

in Q4 2008 to 57% in Q4 2009.

Pune

48










40,178 (34.9)

42,421 (55.1) 39,623

(52.2) 36,335 (47.7) 31,501

(41.8) 27,903 (36.8)

26,461 (35.2)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Inve

nto

ry O

verh

ang

(Qu

arte

rs)

No

. of

Un

its

Unsold Inventory


1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 2,600 2,700

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)


Apartments Villas

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)


Apartments Villas


*

*

*

Dwarka, Chakan - Naiknavare Developers

Pune

49





Sr No

Project Name

Developer Name

Colony Name

Launched Sqft

Launched Units

Absorption (Sqft)

Absorption (Units)

Current Absorption

(%)

Avg Unit Size Sqft

Wt Average Price

(INR/Sqft)

Launch Date

Completion Date

1 Nanded City Magarpatta

City Sinhgad 3,710,000 3,500 2,597,000 2,450 70 1,037 2,850 Jun-09 Oct-13

2 Shalini lakeview Trishul

Builders Undri 280,000 700 280,000 700 100 400 1,250 Mar-09 Jun-11

3 Damodar VI Darode Jog Bhandarkar

Road 330,000 500 330,000 500 100 676 2,500 Apr-09 Dec-10

4 Greenland County Darode Jog Narhe 330,000 500 330,000 500 100 676 2,350 Apr-09 Dec-10

5 Dwarka Naiknavare

And Associates

Chakan 1,465,000 1,700 395,550 459 90 862 1,800 Sep-07 Oct-10




9% 3% 3%

2% 2%

79%

Top 5 Developers - Based on absorption during the period Q1 2009 to Q1 2010

Magarpatta City

Darode Jog

Kumar Properties

SiddhiVinayak Group Trishul Builders

Other

DECLINE IN NEW LAUNCHES: Over all, new launches have

declined by 65% in Q4 2009 from Q2 2009 not affecting the recent

increase during the same period

MARGINAL BUT CONTINUOUS DECREASE IN UNSOLD INVENTORY:

Unsold inventory has declined by 33% in Q1 2010 from Q1 2009

MID SEGMENT RECORDS STABLE PRICING, MARGINAL DECLINE:

Average transacted prices in the mid-segment have undergone

marginal variation and are still lower than the transacted prices

in Q3 2008

Pune

50



Mohali

51







89 (0.1)

270 (1.8)

86 (0.1)

650 (0.7)

663 (0.8)

- -

1,443 (2.4)

587 (0.9)

893 (1.4)

1,117 (1.8)

1,411 (2.1)

1,068 (1.7)

252 (0.5)

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

un

its



89 (0.1)

20 86

(0.1)

600 (0.5)

513 (0.6)

- -

- -

-

50 (0.1) 150 (0.3)

- - -

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

Un

its



578 (0.7) 294

(0.4)

440 (0.5)

555 (0.7)

771 (0.9) 477

(0.6) 81

(0.1)

723 (1.3)

245 (0.4)

416 (0.7)

518 (0.9)

608 (1.1)

565 (1.1)

158 (0.2)

-

500

1,000

1,500

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 N

o. o

f U

nit

s




*

*

*

Steady increase in supply & absorption of new launches

has been witnessed till Q3 2009. Majority of the supply

belongs to the affordable segment.

However the absorption share exhibits almost an equal

share for both the segments.

Mohali

52










10,219 (17.0)

9,902 (17.7)

9,095 (16.5)

8,629 (15.2) 7,880

(14.0) 6,811 (12.3)

6,559 (11.8)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Inve

nto

ry O

verh

ang

(Qu

arte

rs)

No

. of

Un

its

Unsold Inventory


1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)


Apartments Villas

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)



*

*

*


Mohali Hills – Emaar MGF

Mohali

53







Sr No

Project Name

Developer Name

Colony Name

Launched Sqft

Launched Units

Absorption (Sqft)

Absorption (Units)

Current Absorption

(%)

Avg Unit Size Sqft

Wt Average Price

(INR/Sqft)

Launch Date

Completion Date

1 TDI City-Apartments Taneja

Developers Sector 117 1,600,000 1,200 800,000 600 100 1,300 2,250 Jan-08 Sep-12

2 The Views Emaar MGF Sector 105 2,820,000 1,156 592,200 243 75 2,437 2,950 Jul-06 Dec-11

3 Sunrise Green Jaipuria Zirakpur 1,455,000 959 320,100 211 65 1,517 2,175 Dec-06 Dec-10

4 Maya Garden Barnala

Developers Zirakpur 433,000

291

264,130 178 99 1,405 2,250 Mar-08 Mar-10

5 Royale Estates Motia Group Zirakpur 1,351,000 829 270,200 166 95 1,572 2,625 May-06 Mar-10


NO NEW SUPPLY SINCE Q4 2009: No significant launches have

been recorded in the primary market of the city during this

period

DECLINE IN UNSOLD INVENTORY: Due to a continuous increase in

absorption levels, unsold inventory has registered a decline of

36% for Q3 2008 & Q1 2010

PRICE INCREASE IN AFFORDABLE SEGMENT : Average transacted

prices of apartments in affordable segment have increased since

Q1 2008 whilst the same has decreased marginally in the mid

segment

Mohali

13%

9%

6%

4%

4% 64%


Taneja Developers

Unitech

Emaar MGF

Jaipuria

Motia Group

Other

54



Chandigarh

55








*

*

*

280 (0.46)

207 (0.38)

104 (0.21) 113 (0.23)

91 (0.17)

109 (0.25)

157 (0.32)

88 (0.17)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

un

its



280 (0.5)

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

No

. of

Un

its



64 (0.09) 16

(0.02) 20

(0.13) 14

(0.02) 9 24

(0.03) 5

122 (0.21)

71 (0.13) 72 (0.13)

59 (0.09) 61 (0.11)

93 (0.14)

65 (0.1)

0

50

100

150

200

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 N

o. o

f U

nit

s



There have been no significant launches in Chandigarh post

Q3 2008 which were primarily in the mid segment.

Absorption levels since Q4 2008 have undergone marginal

variations and have registered an average absorption of 110

units every quarter.

Chandigarh

56






Affordable Segment 2 346




*

*

*


2,456 (2.8)

2,351 (2.7)

2,238 (2.6)

2,147 (2.5)

2,038 (2.3)

1,881 (2.1)

1,793 (2.1)

-

5

10

15

20

25

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Inve

nto

ry O

verh

ang

(Qu

arte

rs)

No

. of

Un

its

Unsold Inventory


1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)


Apartments

1,500 1,700 1,900 2,100 2,300 2,500 2,700 2,900 3,100 3,300

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Pri

ce (

INR

/Sq

ft)


Apartments Villas

Marble Arch II

Chandigarh

57







Sr No

Project Name

Developer Name


Sqft Launched

Units Absorption

(Sqft) Absorption

(Units)

Current Absorption

(%)

Avg Unit Size Sqft

Wt Average Price

(INR/Sqft)

Launch Date

Completion Date

1 Parikrama Sun City Projects Panchkula (Sec-20)

1,553,000 550 341,660 121 70 4,075 3,550 May-07 Jan-11

2 Ess Vee

Apartments Samar Estates

Panchkula (Sec-20)

444,000 300 119,880 81 90 1,482 3,600 Jun-06 Dec-10

3 Panchkula Heights AP Shresth Coloniser

Panchkula 415,000 264 103,750 66 70 1,575 2,216 Mar-08 Oct-10

4 Trishla Plus

Homes Trishla Builders

Panchkula (Pir Muchala)

469,000 312 93,800 62 97 1,503 2,100 Jan-07 Aug-09

5 Imperial

Residency Harmony Coloniser

Panchkula (Pir Muchala)

463,000 280 64,820 39 30 1,654 2,648 Jul-08 Mar-11


30%

19% 14%

13%

10%

14%

Top 5 Developers - Based on absorption during the period Q1 2009 - Q1 2010

Sun City Projects

Samar Estates

AP Shresth Coloniser Parsvnath Developers Trishla Builders

Others

DOMINATING MID SEGMENT MARKET: Absorption share of mid

segment is recorded to be over 55% across every quarter

DECLINE IN INVENTORY OVERHANG : Inventory overhang period

declined to 15 quarters (45 months) in Q1 2010 from 21 quarters

(63 months) in Q2 2009

UPWARD TREND IN PRICING: Average transacted prices of

apartments in mid segment have increased from INR 2,510 /Sqft

in Q3 2008 to INR 3,213 in Q1 2010, an increase of 28%

Chandigarh

58




PERFORMANCE OF INDIAN RESIDENTIAL MARKET

April, 2010

VAISHALI PAWAH

Hand phone:+91 9810111697, +91 124 4522735

Email: [email protected]

WEBSITE: www.propequity.in

REGISTERED OFFICE:

D4 Commercial Complex,

Paschimi Marg, Vasant Vihar,

New Delhi-100057

Mumbai I Navi Mumbai I Thane I Gurgaon I Noida I Greater Noida I Ghaziabad

Faridabad I Bengaluru I Chennai I Pune I Mohali I Chandigarh

Disclaimer:

The contents of this report are based on public information

generally believed to be reliable. Due care and caution has been

exercised in compilation of data. However this report does not

purport to be a solicitation of any advice of P E Analytics Pvt Ltd

and P E Analytics does not accept any liability whatsoever nor do

they accept responsibility for any consequences arising from the

use of the research or information provided herein.

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