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George A. Maul, ChairmanGeorge A. Maul, ChairmanIOCARIBE Tsunami Steering IOCARIBE Tsunami Steering

Group of ExpertsGroup of Experts

Florida Institute of Technology

Department of Marine and Environmental Systems

Development of a Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System for the Caribbean and

Central West Atlantic Region

Percentage Distribution of Tsunamis in Percentage Distribution of Tsunamis in the Worldthe World’’s Oceans and Seass Oceans and Seas

Location %Atlantic East Coast 1.6

Atlantic West Coast 0.4

Mediterranean 10.1

Caribbean 13.8

Bay of Bengal 0.8

East Indies 20.3

Oceania 25.4

Japan-Russia 18.6

Pacific East Coast 8.9

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Atlantic Tsunami RiskAtlantic Tsunami Risk

Close Earthquake Close Earthquake

LandslideLandslide

Submarine VolcanoSubmarine Volcano

TeleTele--tsunamitsunami

Western North Atlantic Tsunami Western North Atlantic Tsunami Fatalities in last 150 YearsFatalities in last 150 Years

Date Place Fatalities

1853 Venezuela 600-4,000 (est.)*

1867 Virgin Islands 23

1882 Panama 75-100

1907 Jamaica 500

1918 Puerto Rico 91-100

1929 Canada 28

1946 Dominican Republic 1,790; 75

1991 Costa Rica 2

2,584 TOTAL

*not included

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Elements of Tsunami Warning SystemElements of Tsunami Warning System

EducationEducation

WarningWarningSeismic, Sea Level, Seismic, Sea Level, CommunicationsCommunications

ManagementManagement

ResearchResearch

Population Per 1 km of Coastline, 2000 and 2025, Living within 100 km of the Coast, By Region, Relative (%) Increase or Decrease

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Asia RegionExcluding

Middle East,25%

INCREASE

EuropeanRegion, -3%DECREASE

Middle Eastand North

AfricaRegion, 52%INCREASE

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Region, 84%INCREASE

NorthAmerica

Region, 20%INCREASE

C America &Caribbean

Region, 39%INCREASE

SouthAmerica

Region, 25%INCREASE

OceaniaRegion, 32%INCREASE

Pers

ons/

km

20002025

IntraIntra--Americas Sea Tsunami Americas Sea Tsunami Warning System UpdateWarning System Updatehttp://http://my.fit.edu/~gmaulmy.fit.edu/~gmaul

Seismic SubsystemSeismic SubsystemSeaSea--Level SubsystemLevel SubsystemCommunications SubsystemCommunications SubsystemBudget UpdateBudget UpdateResearch AgendaResearch AgendaSummarySummary

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Puerto Rico Seismic NetworkPuerto Rico Seismic Network

PTWC

Red SRed Síísmica Virtualsmica Virtual

IRIS/USGS IU Network

IRIS/IDA II Network

ISU/USAD Network

PRSN/UPR Network

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Proposed USGS Broadband Proposed USGS Broadband NetworkNetwork

PR&VI Water Level StationsPR&VI Water Level Stations

NOS PRSN Upgrade NOS

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Intra-Americas Sea Water-Level Network

ref. IOCARIBE Tsunami Proposal Annex III

CPACC

RONMAC

US NWLON

IOC/UNEP

UK

FRANCE

MEXICO

CUBA

SMITH. INST

PANAMA

VENEZ

IOC

FINCUR

NOAA

DOM REP

NOAA

Intra-Americas Sea Water-Level Network

Status reported GLOSS IX 02/05

NOT OPERATIONAL

GONE

OPER / XMIT

OPER / NO XMIT

UNKNOWN

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ProtocoloProtocolo de de MaremotosMaremotos paraparaPuerto RicoPuerto Rico

ProtocoloProtocolo de de MaremotoMaremoto paraparaPuerto RicoPuerto Rico

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Research Agenda:Research Agenda:Buoys, Neural Networks, RunBuoys, Neural Networks, Run--up Modelingup Modeling

• Deployed Location– 39º 58’ North– 7 º 34’ East– Approximately 40 miles west of

Capo de Oristano

Partners Seeking FundingPartners Seeking FundingStart up: $3,515,000Start up: $3,515,000Recurring: $2,200,000Recurring: $2,200,000

CDERA CDERA –– Caribbean Disaster Emergency Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response AgencyResponse AgencyOAS OAS –– Pan American Development FoundationPan American Development FoundationIOCARIBE IOCARIBE –– SubcomissionSubcomission for the Caribbean and for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions of IOCAdjacent Regions of IOCLocal GovernmentsLocal GovernmentsOthersOthers

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SUMMARYSUMMARY

Atlantic tsunami deaths in last ~150 Atlantic tsunami deaths in last ~150 years (1853, 1867, 1907, 1918, 1929, years (1853, 1867, 1907, 1918, 1929, 1946, 1991): at least 2,500 persons 1946, 1991): at least 2,500 persons North Atlantic coastal population to North Atlantic coastal population to increase ~40 million persons by 2025increase ~40 million persons by 2025IOCIOC--approved warning system to include approved warning system to include Education, Warnings, Management, Education, Warnings, Management, ResearchResearchA matter of when, not if!A matter of when, not if!

ReferencesReferencesBryant, E.A. Natural Hazards. Cambridge University Press,

Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, 294 pp., 1991.Duedall, I.M., and G.A. Maul. Future Coastal populations. In: M.

Schwartz, (editor), Encyclopedia of Coastal Science, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht (in press), 2005.

O’Loughlin, K.F., and J.F. Lander. Caribbean Tsunamis: a 500-year history from 1498-1998. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, Boston, 263 pp., 2003.

Mader, C.L. Modeling the 1755 Lisbon Tsunami. Science of Tsunami Hazards, 19(2): 93-99, 2004.

Maul, G.A. Atlantic Tsunami Warnings Are Needed. Guest Editorial, Sea Technology, 44(3), pg: 7, 2003.

Watlington, R.A., and S.H. Lincoln. Disaster and Disruption in 1867: Hurricane, Earthquake, and Tsunami in the Danish West Indies. University of the Virgin Islands, St. Thomas, USVI 00803, 134 pp., 2001.