peramalan ; supply demand
DESCRIPTION
metode untuk meramalkan supply dan demandTRANSCRIPT
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Estimasi dan
Peramalan Permintaan
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Teori dan Fungsi Permintaan
• Teori Permintaan (Demand-Supply)
QDx = f ( PX, I, Pr, Pe, Ie, PAe, T, N, A, F, O)
Kuantitas permintaanBarang/jasa X
PRICEhargaBarang/jasa X
INCOMEpendapatan
PRICE RelatedHarga barang/jasa lain terkait
EXPECTEDPRICE Barang/jasa X, mendatang
EXPECTEDINCOME
EXPECTEDAVAILABILITYBarang/jasa X, mendatang
TASTE
NUMBERPOTENSIALCONSUMER
ADVERTISING EXP.
FEATURESBarang/jasa X,
OTHERSBarang/jasa X,
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Pengaruh perubahan variabel
Demand Price
QDx
QPx
– Jika harga naik permintaan turun
– Jika harga turun permintaan naik
– At Ceteris paribus– Exp. Tarif telpon diskon
pada malam hari
Normal Inferior
QDx
I
– Jika income naik permintaan naik (normal) vise versa
– Exp. Berlian income– Jika income naik
permintaan turun (inferior)– Exp. Tarif angkutan <-> income– At Ceteris paribus
< 0> 0 (+) normal goods
< 0 (-) inferior goods
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Pengaruh perubahan variabel
Subtitusi Komplementer
QDx
QPr
– Substitusi ,Jika harga barang lain naik/turun ,permintaan ikut naik/turunexp. Mobil Korea thd Mobil Jepang
– Komplementer, Jika harga barang lain naik/turun permintaan ikut turun/naikexp. Penjualan semen naik antisipasi kelangkaan.
– At Ceteris paribus
Taste
QX
T – Jika selera naik/turun
permintaan naik /turun Exp. Iphone permintaan– At Ceteris paribus
> 0 (+) > 0 (+) substitusi
< 0 (-) komplementer
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Pengaruh perubahan variabelKonsumen potensial Permintaan
Qx
N
– Jika konsumen potensial naik/turun , kuantitas permintaan ikut naik/turunexp. Ritel di Singapura turun <-- ritel di Jakarta+Kuala Lumpur
– At Ceteris paribus
Advertising Permintaan
QX
A – Jika anggaran iklan
naik/turunpermintaan naik /turun
Exp. Samsung Galaxy permintaan
– At Ceteris paribus
> 0 (+) > 0 (+)
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KURVA PERMINTAAN UNTUK FUNGSI PERMINTAAN DO : QDX = 217,1 – 15 PX
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Selanjutnya ?
• Penentuan titik harga kompetitif ekspektasi permintaan
• Kapasitas harga ekspektasi permintaan? Berapa jumlah yg akan diminta konsumen
pada suatu titik harga tertentu.? Berapa harga yg sesuai dgn titik jumlah
permintaan tertentu.
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Diketahui
• Range harga TV (simple) 900 ribu – (multi)1,1 juta• Persaingan sangat kompetitif
• Produk TV akan diposisikan pada harga 1,05 juta
MakaQDX = 217,1-15 Px = 217,1- 15 (10,5)
=59,6 ribu unitJika kapasitas produksi = 55 ribu unit maka harga jual 1,08
juta
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Persoalan biaya iklan dgQDX = -1,4-15 Px +7,5 Pr +2,6 I+2,5A
Do:A=50 D1:A=60 D2:A=40
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Perubahan permintaan yg menggeserkurva permintaan TV
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latihan
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