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8/7/2019 People Power Revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt- Implications for Regional Security and Democratization in the Middle East
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People Power Revolutions in Tunisia
and Egypt: implications for regional
security and democratization in theMiddle East
People Power Revolutions in Tunisia
and Egypt: implications for regional
security and democratization in theMiddle East
By: Javad HeydarianBy: Javad HeydarianQuickTime� and a
decompressor are needed to see this picture.
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The Middle East¶s Berlin Wall
Moment?
The Middle East¶s Berlin Wall
Moment?
An analysis of the set of factors, whichcontributed to the emergence of unprecedented levels of massive pro-democracy protests in Egypt and Tunisia
Situating the mass uprisings within an
international context: comparison withrevolutions and people power movementsin other comparable countries
An analysis of the set of factors, whichcontributed to the emergence of unprecedented levels of massive pro-democracy protests in Egypt and Tunisia
Situating the mass uprisings within an
international context: comparison withrevolutions and people power movementsin other comparable countries
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The Middle East on the Cusp of
Change
The Middle East on the Cusp of
Change
A comparative analysis between mass uprisingsin Egypt, Tunisia, on one hand, and the simmering
or existing protests in other Arab countries in theLevant, and Persian Gulf.
The implications of a systemic change in Egypt on
the foreign policy of the United States, Israel¶snational security, and Iran¶s regional standing
A comparative analysis between mass uprisingsin Egypt, Tunisia, on one hand, and the simmering
or existing protests in other Arab countries in theLevant, and Persian Gulf.
The implications of a systemic change in Egypt on
the foreign policy of the United States, Israel¶snational security, and Iran¶s regional standing
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A Revolution long in the making?A Revolution long in the making?
R evolution: ³an overall system change, oftenthrough violence, where an existing politicalregime and dominant social order is replaced witha radically new sets of institutions, inter-classrelations, and political system.´
People Power: ³non-violent mass uprisings, whichled to the downfall of autocratic regimes,characterized by a relatively stable and orderlytransition to democracy.´
R evolution: ³an overall system change, oftenthrough violence, where an existing politicalregime and dominant social order is replaced witha radically new sets of institutions, inter-classrelations, and political system.´
People Power: ³non-violent mass uprisings, whichled to the downfall of autocratic regimes,characterized by a relatively stable and orderlytransition to democracy.´
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Indications of Growing Discontent:Indications of Growing Discontent:
The Kefaya Movement in 2004
The 2005 elections - Ayman Nour incident
TheA
pril 6 movement Food R iots in 2008
The National Association for Change in 2010
Protests in Alexandria due to police brutalities
The killing of Coptics and mass protests
The 2011 parliamentary elections
The Kefaya Movement in 2004
The 2005 elections - Ayman Nour incident
TheA
pril 6 movement Food R iots in 2008
The National Association for Change in 2010
Protests in Alexandria due to police brutalities
The killing of Coptics and mass protests
The 2011 parliamentary elections
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The Façade of Stability: A Myth Behind
Autocratic Regimes in the Middle East
The Façade of Stability: A Myth Behind
Autocratic Regimes in the Middle East
Tahrir Square and October 6th bridge (Jan 2010) Tahrir Square and October 6th bridge (Jan 2010)
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Tahrir Square by Feb 2011Tahrir Square by Feb 2011
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An Active Political Volcano:An Active Political Volcano:
In March 2010, in an Article, entitled ³Egypt¶sImpending Political Earthquake´, I laid downthe following arguments:
1. Egypt, one of the most powerful U.S. alliesin the Arab world, is sitting on a politicalvolcano ready to erupt at any moment.
2. The United States can play a productive rolein the transformation of Egyptian politics by pressuring the government towards reformand preventing hardline Israel from
interfering in Egypt¶s politics.
In March 2010, in an Article, entitled ³Egypt¶sImpending Political Earthquake´, I laid downthe following arguments:
1. Egypt, one of the most powerful U.S. alliesin the Arab world, is sitting on a politicalvolcano ready to erupt at any moment.
2. The United States can play a productive rolein the transformation of Egyptian politics by pressuring the government towards reformand preventing hardline Israel from
interfering in Egypt¶s politics.
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Despite decades of stability and economic growth,there is rampant poverty, huge inequality, and asociety-wide yearn for political change: the 2011upcoming elections serving as a watershed.
Prominent personalities such as Elbaradei and AmrMousa will seek presidency.
Egypt¶s complicity in the µGaza siege¶ is a potentialrallying point, while Islamic consciousness is shapingthe growing pluralism in the social landscape.
Despite decades of stability and economic growth,there is rampant poverty, huge inequality, and asociety-wide yearn for political change: the 2011upcoming elections serving as a watershed.
Prominent personalities such as Elbaradei and AmrMousa will seek presidency.
Egypt¶s complicity in the µGaza siege¶ is a potentialrallying point, while Islamic consciousness is shapingthe growing pluralism in the social landscape.
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T he upcoming election is also the perfect opportunity forprogressive forces, inside and outside Egypt, to advancedemocratic ideals that are more likely than ever to translateinto concrete political results. People in Egypt havecontinuously shown their willingness to embrace amore democratic and even more liberal society. The2011 elections could be the perfect opportunity for real political change.
A democratic political transition could verywell take place in Egypt in 2011. But it will happen only if the United States shifts to anon-interventionist policy vis-à-vis Egypt «
T he upcoming election is also the perfect opportunity forprogressive forces, inside and outside Egypt, to advancedemocratic ideals that are more likely than ever to translateinto concrete political results. People in Egypt havecontinuously shown their willingness to embrace amore democratic and even more liberal society. The2011 elections could be the perfect opportunity for real political change.
A democratic political transition could verywell take place in Egypt in 2011. But it will happen only if the United States shifts to anon-interventionist policy vis-à-vis Egypt «
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Arab World¶s ExceptionalismArab World¶s Exceptionalism
Democratic movements and political dynamismin non-Arab ME countries:
1. Iran:
- The popular revolution in 1979
- The rise of reformist movement in 1997: ³Islam-D
emocracy´ Synthesis- The Green Movement in 2009
Democratic movements and political dynamismin non-Arab ME countries:
1. Iran:
- The popular revolution in 1979
- The rise of reformist movement in 1997: ³Islam-D
emocracy´ Synthesis- The Green Movement in 2009
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The Iranian Model: Independence and
Pluralism
The Iranian Model: Independence and
Pluralism 31st anniv. of the revolution The green mov¶t rally 31st anniv. of the revolution The green mov¶t rally
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The 1979 Revolution: Toppling of a pro-US
Autocracy
The 1979 Revolution: Toppling of a pro-US
Autocracy
A revolution that ended the
reign of US¶ most powerful
Ally in the region.
Greatest number of mass
protests/participation in human
History
A site of numerous competitivepresidential elections
A revolution that ended the
reign of US¶ most powerful
Ally in the region.
Greatest number of mass
protests/participation in human
History
A site of numerous competitivepresidential elections
Qui i
i i ure.
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The Turkish Model: Economic Dynamism and
Islamic Democracy
The Turkish Model: Economic Dynamism and
Islamic Democracy
The election of Justice and Development Party
AKP in 2002 ushered in a new era of politics
A decisive move towards µcivilian politics¶,
political reform, and social pluralism
Successful rates of sustained economic growth
The election of Justice and Development Party
AKP in 2002 ushered in a new era of politics
A decisive move towards µcivilian politics¶,
political reform, and social pluralism
Successful rates of sustained economic growth
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I
sraelI
srael µApartheid¶ regime or liberal democracy?
1. The country claims to be the only democraticcountry in the region
2. Invited by the OECD to be a member country
3. R esembling many aspects of liberal democracyalong Western European lines, albeit plagued byserious defects.
4. Political leaders voted based on elections: µelitecirculation¶ and organized electoral uncertainty
µApartheid¶ regime or liberal democracy?
1. The country claims to be the only democraticcountry in the region
2. Invited by the OECD to be a member country
3. R esembling many aspects of liberal democracyalong Western European lines, albeit plagued byserious defects.
4. Political leaders voted based on elections: µelitecirculation¶ and organized electoral uncertainty
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Arab World: troubled democratic
vestiges
Arab World: troubled democratic
vestiges
The 1991 elections in Algeria
The Lebanese system: ethnic-sectarian
conflict, and foreign intervention
The 2006 election in Palestine
The 1991 elections in Algeria
The Lebanese system: ethnic-sectarian
conflict, and foreign intervention
The 2006 election in Palestine
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The Egyptian and Tunisian Revolutions in
2011: the Arab World on the Cusp of
transformation
The Egyptian and Tunisian Revolutions in
2011: the Arab World on the Cusp of
transformation Unprecedented, spontaneous, and ³promising´ - it
broke the barrier of fear and intimidation
US and the military played a constructive roleduring the course of the uprising
Led to the collapse of autocratic top US¶ regionalallies
Largely secular, non-violent, broad-based,
domestic-politics-oriented, and swift in µsuccess¶
Unprecedented, spontaneous, and ³promising´ - itbroke the barrier of fear and intimidation
US and the military played a constructive roleduring the course of the uprising
Led to the collapse of autocratic top US¶ regionalallies
Largely secular, non-violent, broad-based,
domestic-politics-oriented, and swift in µsuccess¶
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The Role of Social MediaThe Role of Social Media
Egyptian Youth: Admittedly inspired by the GreenMovement in Iran in 2009
Facebook becoming a platform for debates,organization of protests, and mobilization of thepublic
Caught global attention: international mediaputting pressure on the state to refrain frommassive crackdown
Egyptian Youth: Admittedly inspired by the GreenMovement in Iran in 2009
Facebook becoming a platform for debates,organization of protests, and mobilization of thepublic
Caught global attention: international mediaputting pressure on the state to refrain frommassive crackdown
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The Egyptian and Tunisian
Revolution
The Egyptian and Tunisian
Revolution Both Southern Mediterranean and in proximity to
the E.U.
Aggressively liberalized economies, high levels of corruption, rampant unemployment and poverty,huge income inequality, and non-oil-rich.
Autocratic leaders reliant on µinternal securityforces¶, but, with relatively µprofessionalized¶armies.
Both Southern Mediterranean and in proximity tothe E.U.
Aggressively liberalized economies, high levels of corruption, rampant unemployment and poverty,huge income inequality, and non-oil-rich.
Autocratic leaders reliant on µinternal securityforces¶, but, with relatively µprofessionalized¶armies.
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QuickTi
c r ss r r t s t is ictur .
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The Spark The Spark
The Self-Immolation
of Mohamed
Bouazizi
of Sidi Bouzid in
December 17
Led to massive outrage at the government and the
system across Tunisia, ending in the ouster of thepresident
then protests spread across the region
The Self-Immolation
of Mohamed
Bouazizi
of Sidi Bouzid in
December 17
Led to massive outrage at the government and the
system across Tunisia, ending in the ouster of thepresident
then protests spread across the region
QuickTime� and a decompr essor
ar e needed to see t is pictur e.
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ComparablesComparables The Iranian R evolution in 1979
EDSA R evolution in 1986
Suharto¶s demise in 1998 after - after 30 years of leadership
People Power R evolution in Eastern Europe andCaucasus
The Iranian R evolution in 1979
EDSA R evolution in 1986
Suharto¶s demise in 1998 after - after 30 years of leadership
People Power R evolution in Eastern Europe andCaucasus
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Egypt: military tutelage or pluralistic
democracy?
Egypt: military tutelage or pluralistic
democracy?
Egypt¶s pivotal role in maintaining the regional
order means that the military - the key to therevolution¶s success - could play a decisive role inthe post-Mubarak era.
Depending on the military¶s maneuvers, therevolution could take different directions.
Egypt¶s pivotal role in maintaining the regional
order means that the military - the key to therevolution¶s success - could play a decisive role inthe post-Mubarak era.
Depending on the military¶s maneuvers, therevolution could take different directions.
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The Turkish model ± the state makes a transition toa post-Mubarak scenario, but the military retains acentral political role. In case the democratic processfails to create a stable political consensus or seemsto be exploiting populism at the expense of the state,the military will step-in. The military will also do itsbest to retain control on or influence the defense andforeign policy (e.g. ties with the U.S. and Israel)
The Pakistani model ± there would be a transitionto a post-Mubarak situation, but the elections wouldonly bring-in a µsham¶ civilian government, which is
not in control of all key organs of the state. Inreality, a parallel state would run all intelligence,security, and defense organs of the state - the threatof coups would constantly threaten the governemnt.
The Turkish model ± the state makes a transition toa post-Mubarak scenario, but the military retains acentral political role. In case the democratic processfails to create a stable political consensus or seemsto be exploiting populism at the expense of the state,the military will step-in. The military will also do itsbest to retain control on or influence the defense andforeign policy (e.g. ties with the U.S. and Israel)
The Pakistani model ± there would be a transitionto a post-Mubarak situation, but the elections wouldonly bring-in a µsham¶ civilian government, which is
not in control of all key organs of the state. Inreality, a parallel state would run all intelligence,security, and defense organs of the state - the threatof coups would constantly threaten the governemnt.
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The Military Steps asideThe Military Steps aside
The Indonesian model ± there would be a µregimechange¶, and the introduction of popular electionswould usher in a period of stable democratic politics± probably under the leadership of Elbaradei andother secular democrats - and graduallydemocratization would turn the military into a moreµprofessionalized¶ institution.
The Iranian model - a new regime with a markedlydifferent ideology takes over the regime, andfundamentally alters the domestic political order andthe foreign policy.
The Indonesian model ± there would be a µregimechange¶, and the introduction of popular electionswould usher in a period of stable democratic politics± probably under the leadership of Elbaradei andother secular democrats - and graduallydemocratization would turn the military into a moreµprofessionalized¶ institution.
The Iranian model - a new regime with a markedlydifferent ideology takes over the regime, andfundamentally alters the domestic political order andthe foreign policy.
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Ripple Effects Across the RegionRipple Effects Across the Region
Types of states:
1. Oil-rich US¶ allies
2. R esource-poor US¶ allies
3. Non-US allies
Types of states:
1. Oil-rich US¶ allies
2. R esource-poor US¶ allies
3. Non-US allies
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Some basic points:Some basic points:
Oil-rich countries, especially Qatar, Kuwait, andUAE, have strong µfiscal leverage¶ to stave-off amomentum for growing protests
Meanwhile, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia haveserious unemployment, inequality, and sectarianconcerns - trouble in the Persian Gulf is even moreµalarming¶
Libya, caught between Tunisia and Egypt, mighthave a more precarious situation: highunemployment, overstretched budget, and lowincome.
Oil-rich countries, especially Qatar, Kuwait, andUAE, have strong µfiscal leverage¶ to stave-off amomentum for growing protests
Meanwhile, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia haveserious unemployment, inequality, and sectarianconcerns - trouble in the Persian Gulf is even moreµalarming¶
Libya, caught between Tunisia and Egypt, mighthave a more precarious situation: highunemployment, overstretched budget, and lowincome.
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The Situation outside the oil-rich Persian
Gulf:
The Situation outside the oil-rich Persian
Gulf: Yemen, Jordan, and Algeria are in a more difficult
situation:
- preexisting sectarian and secessionist movements
- Deep economic woes
- Limited room for µfiscal appeasement¶
- Unpopular alliance with the US
On the other hand, Syria - with a protectedeconomic system and booming ties with Turkeyand Iran - has been remarkably µsilent¶ so far.
Yemen, Jordan, and Algeria are in a more difficultsituation:
- preexisting sectarian and secessionist movements
- Deep economic woes
- Limited room for µfiscal appeasement¶
- Unpopular alliance with the US
On the other hand, Syria - with a protectedeconomic system and booming ties with Turkeyand Iran - has been remarkably µsilent¶ so far.
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Bahrain and Libya: deepening
crisis
Bahrain and Libya: deepening
crisis Both are relatively large oil exporters
So far, the only major oil producing countrieswitnessing ongoing protests and violence
The unrest is already having a considerable impact
on oil prices - affecting global economic recoveryand food prices
Libya is a case of humanitarian crisis
Both are relatively large oil exporters
So far, the only major oil producing countrieswitnessing ongoing protests and violence
The unrest is already having a considerable impact
on oil prices - affecting global economic recoveryand food prices
Libya is a case of humanitarian crisis
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Qui i e and a
de o p e oa e needed o ee hi pi u e
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The Perils of TransitionThe Perils of Transition Bahrain - it is at the intersection of Iran-Saudi/US
rivalry
The element of Shia-Sunni issues
Libyan military in tatters - lack of professionalism
Tribal societies - lack deep democratic-civictraditions; threat of inter-tribal conflict
Bahrain - it is at the intersection of Iran-Saudi/USrivalry
The element of Shia-Sunni issues
Libyan military in tatters - lack of professionalism
Tribal societies - lack deep democratic-civictraditions; threat of inter-tribal conflict
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The Changing Balance of PowerThe Changing Balance of Power
In 1979, US¶ top ally, Iran, makes a radical shift inits orientation, while Egypt becomes a staunch allywith its peace treaty with Israel in the same year.
Mubarak and BenA
li out of power, and other USallies in Algeria, Jordan, Yemen, and Bahrainunder increasing popular pressure
Turkey and Iran - bolstered by its rising allies inLebanon, Palestine, and Iraq - as the pivotal,independent, and assertive indigenous powers inthe region
In 1979, US¶ top ally, Iran, makes a radical shift inits orientation, while Egypt becomes a staunch allywith its peace treaty with Israel in the same year.
Mubarak and BenA
li out of power, and other USallies in Algeria, Jordan, Yemen, and Bahrainunder increasing popular pressure
Turkey and Iran - bolstered by its rising allies inLebanon, Palestine, and Iraq - as the pivotal,independent, and assertive indigenous powers inthe region
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The Israeli Variable:The Israeli Variable:
Ensuring Cold War with Iran
The Mavi Marmara Incident and impact onIsrael-Turkey R elations
Fall of Mubarak and rise of democraticleaders - most with µcritical¶ views on µsiegeof Gaza¶
Ensuring Cold War with Iran
The Mavi Marmara Incident and impact onIsrael-Turkey R elations
Fall of Mubarak and rise of democraticleaders - most with µcritical¶ views on µsiegeof Gaza¶
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Reconfiguring US¶ Foreign PolicyReconfiguring US¶ Foreign Policy
Need to re-examine the false doctrine of µstability-democracy trade-off¶
Supporting democratization beyond Israel-USbilateral security partnership
Accept the possibility of more µindependent¶ anddemocratic governments with popular-basedforeign policies
Need to re-examine the false doctrine of µstability-democracy trade-off¶
Supporting democratization beyond Israel-USbilateral security partnership
Accept the possibility of more µindependent¶ anddemocratic governments with popular-basedforeign policies