Penn State Weather CampsSat I - Sat II - NWS - Radar - Radar

sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3

-> IR emission PROP to ?

-> Temp and Height ?

Basic Forecast Guidelines

Basic Forecast Guidelines

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Know what to expect! = Climo.JUNE 22

Basic Forecast Guidelines

Climatology Forecast = averages for today

Persistence Forecast = yesterday’s values

Modified Persistence -> Yesterday = First Guess -> Modify based on changes

Conceptual Models

Basic Forecast Guidelines

What causes temperature to change?◦Cloud cover:

Day Vs. Night◦Precipitation:

When it rains T’s tend to be higher/lower? Why?◦Wind and Fronts:

Direction◦N vs. S

Speed◦Day Vs. Night

Basic Forecast Guidelines

Basic Forecast Guidelines

Basic Forecast Guidelines

Penn State Weather Camps

Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines

Sat I - Sat II - NWS - Radar - Radar

sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3

Afternoon stuff

Radar

NAM model

GFS model

SFC maps

SPC 6/16-17 Event

SPC terms

Basic Forecast Guidelines

What causes rain?◦Need clouds!

Will any ole cloud do?◦Moisture supply

Bodies of water – Moisture content of air◦Upward motion:

How does this affect clouds/precip.? Mechanisms for “lift”

◦Fronts – Topography – Low Pressure – Jet stream dist.

◦(In) stability: Warm down low … cold up high!

Basic Forecast Guidelines

The “Models” ◦Simulate future state of atmosphere◦Higher resolution / lower resolution

The “Models” ◦Lower Res. (GFS)◦Higher Res. (NAM)◦Higher Res. (HRRR)

Your competition !!!

◦The National Weather Service

◦The Weather Channel

◦Accuweather

◦The guy or gal to your left and right