pei’s changing climate: both good and bad
TRANSCRIPT
PEI’s Changing Climate:Both Good and Bad
Adam FenechUPEI Climate
Rotary Club of SummersideJuly 17, 2012
1
What is sensitive to climate?
2
WEST NILE VIRUS
when Tmean>30°C, 90% Efficiency of Culex Pipiens to transmit West Nile virus to humans (Dohm et al., 2001)
3
SOUTHERN PINE BEETLE
when Tmin<-16°C, Dendroctonus frontalis is unable to survive a winter (Ungerrer et al., 1999)
4
PREMIUM GOLF DAYS
when daily Tmean>18°C and Tmean<28°C, * 80.7% where Pdaily >0 and <2.5mm, *64.7% where Pdaily >2.5mm and <5mm, *0 where Pdaily >10mm, and *0 where previous day’s Pdaily >20mm, people play golf(Scott and Jones ,2006)
5
CRIME
when daily Tmean=26°C, peak physical assaults (crime)reported in Toronto (Boyanowsky, 2007)
6
What is NOT sensitive to climate?
7
What is NOT sensitive to climate?
8
Has PEI’s Climate Changed in the
Past 100 years? Past 50 years? Past
30 years?
Warmer? Colder?
No Change?
Don’t Know!
Don’t Care!
9
1◦C
3
4
5
6
7
8
◦C
Annual Mean TemperatureCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
1873 to 2011
Temperatures
Increases Mostly from Winter Night time Lows
3
1873
1883
1893
1903
1913
1923
1933
1943
1953
1963
1973
1983
1993
2003
Year
10
Monthly Temperatures – 100 Years Later
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.9
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
C
Difference between 1881-1910 and 1981-2010 in the Monthly Mean TemperaturesCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
0.4 0.4
0.5
0.40.3
0.2
0.3
0.6
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
◦C
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
1873
1883
1893
1903
1913
1923
1933
1943
1953
1963
1973
1983
1993
2003
# of days Tmax> 27.5◦C
Year
Extreme Hot DaysCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
1873 to 2011
Extreme Hot >27.5◦C
Over previous 138 years
1937 experienced most extreme hot days at 24
Extreme Cold DaysYear
0
5
10
15
20
25
1873
1883
1893
1903
1913
1923
1933
1943
1953
1963
1973
1983
1993
2003
# of days Tmin<-20◦C
Year
Extreme Cold DaysCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
1873 to 2011
Extreme Cold <-20◦C
12
Is March 2012 the warmest March
in the past 30 years?
13
Is March 2012 the warmest March
in the past 30 years?
3
4
5
Differences from Climate Normal (1981-2010)in March Mean Temperatures
Charlottetown, PEI 1981 to 2012
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
◦C
Year
14
Has PEI’s Climate Changed in the
Past 100 years? Past 50 years? Past
30 years?
Wetter? Drier?
No Change?
Don’t Know!
Don’t Care!
15
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
19001873
1883
1893
1903
1913
1923
1933
1943
1953
1963
1973
1983
1993
2003
mm
Annual Total PrecipitationCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
1873 to 2010
Ø(↓2%)
1873
1883
1893
1903
1913
1923
1933
1943
1953
1963
1973
1983
1993
2003
Year
PrecipitationNo real change over 138 years but much drier in past 30 years
16
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
Monthly PrecipitationCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
1981 to 2010
Past 30 years, rain in prime summer months
has increased
-0.60
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
% change
17
Past 30 years, rain in prime
growing months has decreased
18
Is this PEI’s driest
May/June/July on record?May/June/July on record?
19
Amount of rain from May 1 to July 10courtesy of CBC News
20
50
60
Premium Golf DaysCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
1981 to 2010
13 days
21
0
10
20
30
40
1981 1991 2001
# of days
Year
Note: raw climate data used
Looking Into PEI’s Future
22
Temperatures in 100 years= Boston, Mass
23
Conclusions
• Climate influences everything!
• PEI climate changing “warmer and drier”
• Winter night-time lows driving temperature increase “climate change happens while you’re sleeping”
• Extreme hot days going up, while extreme cold days • Extreme hot days going up, while extreme cold days going down
• Premium golf days increased by almost two weeks over past 30 years (raw data)
• Future climate like Boston, Mass
24