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PORTFOLIO PICKS

STOCK PICKS FOR NOVEMBER 2017

October 28, 2017

COMPANY SECTOR CMP (INR)

RATING MARKET

CAP(INR CR) POTENTIAL

TARGET POTENTIAL

UPSIDE

LARSEN & TOUBRO Capital Goods

1225 BUY 171356 1460 19.18%

COCHIN SHIPYARD Ship Building 571 ACCUMULATE 7751 650 13.78%

GRASIM INDUSTRIES

Diversified 1187 ACCUMULATE 78223 1350 13.73%

ICICI LOMBARD GI Insurance- Non Life

683 ACCUMULATE 30959 750 9.81%

KANSAI NEROLAC Paints 502 BUY 27030 580 15.50% Time horizon of the recommended stock picks: 12 months. Stock prices in INR.

Equity Market Outlook:

Indian equity markets rebounded strongly in the month of October on back of reform initiatives by

Central Government in PSU Banks and strong global growth outlook amid benchmark indices hit fresh

record highs. Strong flows from domestic Mutual Fund industry in October so far helped the market to

rise 5.46% (Upto October 27, 2017) and absorbed the selling by foreign portfolio investors to large

extent. Recent announcement on PSU bank re-capitlisation could help the PSU banking system to

bring back them to the lending market and help them to resolve stressed loans. This move is front-

loaded and could spur higher economic activity over medium term.

However, the relative expensive valuation and slowing economic growth in India compared to other

prominent emerging markets could be the reason for recent FPI out-flows from Indian equities. Indian

markets trade at price-to-earnings ratio of 24 while Brazil trades at 17 times, China at 15 times, South

Africa at 15 times and Russia at 7 times. This relative cheap valuation of other emerging markets and

slowing economic growth could be attributed for current fund outflows by foreign portfolio investors. FPI

flow could come back with earnings recovery and higher economic growth prospects in medium term.

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However flows from domestic institutional investors were quite strong and expected to remain strong in

near term. Benchmark Nifty rose nearly 5.46 percent in the month of October amid volatility (data till

October 27, 2017). Recent rally in last few months has made stock prices overvalued in some sectors

and pockets of markets and risk reward is not favorably placed for short term. However, strong liquidity

and expectations of faster recovery in earnings, stability in political establishment in India could provide

support the markets at lower levels and India remains a "buy on dip Markets" .We are cautiously

optimistic on Indian equities over medium term.

US Fed sets the process to wind down its massive USD 4.5 trillion balance sheet starting from October

this year is once-in-a-generation change in the US already named as the ‘Great Unwinding’ may cause

nervousness in financial markets to some extent as this is happening first time in history. European

Central Bank (ECB) also planned to reduce monthly bond buying program to 30 billion euros from

current 60 billion euros starting from January 2018 with assurance of extending QE program beyond

September 2018 if necessary.

However, Gradual approach of Fed and ECB could mitigate the risk of adverse effects on market

functioning or outsized effects on interest rates. The process comes as the Fed and ECB is on a

gradual path towards interest rate hike cycle. Fed is expected to hike interest rate by 25 bps

by December 2017. Announcement of new Fed Chair likely in next few days and any hint of

continuation of current Fed policy could be positive for market performance.

Market likely to be volatile in near term as valuation is stretched in near term. Geo political and

protectionist policies are the biggest risk in equity markets performance globally. Earnings recovery

cycle may kicks in the early 2018 and increase in government's spending would help to capex recovery

in 2018. We are positive in private banking, construction & capital goods and cement companies in

India over next 12 months.

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UPDATE ON OCTOBER 2017 STOCK PICKS

STOCK CALL INITATED

AT (INR) DATE

POTENTIAL TARGET

RATING PRICE(27 OCT

2017)

HERO MOTOCORP 3727 27-Sep-17 4350 BUY 3787

GODREJ PROPERTIES 594 27-Sep-17 700 BUY 658

EVEREADY IND LTD 299 27-Sep-17 350 BUY 328

HDFC LTD 1719 27-Sep-17 1900 ACCUMULATE 1687

TCS 2495 27-Sep-17 2750 ACCUMULATE 2566 Performance reports of recommended stock return in this report are carried on cash closing price and the call deemed to be open (for 12 months) on F&O expiry date of respective month until target is revised downward/upward depending on companies’ future performance.

How Benchmark Index- Nifty moved in OCTOBER 2017

OPEN: 9893 HIGH: 10366 CLOSE: 10323

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Global Economy Update:

1) China economy growth continues in Q3:

Help from heavy lending by state owned banks and healthy Govt. expenditure helps the economy to

maintain it’s growth rate of 6.8% in Q3. Also the others macro parameters are like retail spending,

housing sales and trade figures are suggesting a steady growth momentum. Also factory output for

year to quarter was grown by 6.6% and the fixed assets investment grown by 7.5%, shown slide

improvement but missed the estimated figure.

2) US Economy yet to back in growth path:

As per the September data released the homebuilding was one year down, probably this would give a

negative impact to the Q3 GDP. As per the commerce department building permits fell 4.5% to 1.215

million units in September and in South the activity dropped 5.6%. Also as per the report by Mortgage

Bankers Association unemployment is at more than a 16.5 years low of 4.2%, and wages are rising

steadily and mortgage rates remain close to historic lows.

As per the Federal Reserve industrial production increased 0.3% September month after drop of 0.7%

in August. As per the central bank on Industrial Production data - “continued effects of Hurricane

Harvey and, to a lesser degree, the effects of Hurricane Irma combined to hold down the growth in total

production in September by a quarter percentage point.”

Also to boost the disposable income and corporate earning Trump eying to reduce the tax rate from

35% to 20%. A 15% cut in direct tax would helps to increase the household income by $4,000 and $9,000

a year.

3) World oil prices recently inched up to 2 years high:

World Oil prices have inched up to 2 years high, due to improvement in World economy growth and

production cut extended by OPEC members. Also the higher Brent Crude prices due to impact from

speculating prices. Recent Hurricane Harvey has affected the one-third of the U.S.’s refining

capacity off-line, as the affect domestic producers with fewer buyers for their output. After falling

steadily since April, U.S. crude stocks rose by 15 million barrels in the first three weeks of September,

according to the Department of Energy. Also “The outlook for Iraq’s oil supply from the Kirkuk oil fields

remains uncertain following an offensive by Iraqi security forces that started on October 15 in response

to the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) independence referendum held in

September.”

javascript:void(0);javascript:void(0);http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/16/news/economy/white-house-corporate-tax-cut-workers/index.html?iid=ELhttp://money.cnn.com/2017/10/16/news/economy/white-house-corporate-tax-cut-workers/index.html?iid=ELhttp://fortune.com/2017/08/28/hurricane-harvey-oil-refining/http://fortune.com/2017/08/28/hurricane-harvey-oil-refining/

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Indian Economy Wrap: Key Statistics:

1) Big boost for seek PSU Banks, as GOI announces a big recap scheme of Rs. 2.11 lakh crore: On

October 24 Finance Ministry announces a big recapitalization plan of Rs. 2.11 lakh crore for PSU

banks. The plan would be spread over 2 years and the capital would be supported by recap bond of Rs.

1.35 lakh crore and 0.76 lakh crore by Budgetary support & market raising. As per the statement by

Department of financial services "There is also a differential approach which one is envisaging where

performance and potential of each bank and their regional characters, national character; internationally

who can be the big one can all be factored in." we expect that the recap scheme would helps the

lending power of PSU banks and the recent highway policy would helps to pick up the credit growth.

The big reforms in banking sector would give a new thrust for investors and would support towards

future growth.

2) Indian Economy is set to go higher after a GDP decline to 5.7% in last Quarter: India’s GDP growth

unexpectedly grew by 5.7 % a steep decline in last three consecutive quarters after demonetization. Q1

GDP growth slowed due to implementation of GST led by dealers destocking. However the

environment is set to improve soon and the September month’s data are suggesting that the Economy

growth has been bottom out and is set to grow from the current level. During September IIP grew by

4.3% driven by strong performance of mining and power sector coupled with capital goods sector.

During the month mining activities grew by 17.4% and electricity grew by 8%. Meanwhile during the

month CPI remained at 3.28% as against 4.39% in last year September month. WEO expects “In India,

growth momentum slowed, reflecting the lingering impact of the authorities’ currency exchange initiative

as well as uncertainty related to the midyear introduction of the countrywide Goods and Services Tax”.

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STOCK PICKS

Company Data

Market Cap (cr) 171356

52 week high (Rs) 1251

52 week low (Rs) 864

3m average volume NSE 1,871,050

Beta 1.74

Face value ( Rs ) 2

Shareholding (%) Q2FY 2018

Promoters 0.0%

Institutions 56.4%

Non-Institutions 43.6%

Key Financials

FY17 FY16 FY15

Net Sales (Cr) 109311 101122 92004

EBITDA (Cr) 18264 16705 17106

PAT (Cr) 5784 4138 5253

Net Profit Margin (%) 6.1% 5.5% 4.8%

EPS (RS) 42.1 30.6 32.1

Book Value (Cr) 50216 44180 40893

P/E 29.7 40.9 39.0

P/BV 2.9 2.6 3.9

RoNW(%) 14.3% 13.1% 11.3%

RoCE(%) 11.4% 11.1% 10.5%

Larsen & Toubro Ltd. Sector: Capital Goods NSE CODE: LT

BUY | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 1225 | Target: Rs 1460

TECHNICAL VIEW:

Stock has given breakout around 1204, above its

wedge pattern with good volume build up at current

levels.It consolidated around its 50ema for last 4

months and after formed flag pattern formation

where it took multiple support around 1111 levels

and recently broke important supply zone of 1200

with strong volumes indicating strength in the stock

for coming months.

It shows buying signal for the stock for long term

triangular breakout target of 1460 in long term.

During Q1FY18 overall revenue from operation

grew by 10% to Rs. 240 bn. led by strong domestic

execution and muted overseas execution. While

EBITDA grew by 9% to 21 bn. However expect that

the margin would improved by 25-40 bps in FY18.

During the quarter consolidated order book stood at

Rs 262860 crore, up by 2% YoY. International order

book constitutes around 26% of total order book.

Order inflow was muted largely due to muted

environment and a one large order of Rs 6000 crore

of Aramco in June 16 quarter. Domestic

infrastructure segment saw a 27% increase in order

inflow in June 17 quarter.

Outlook

12-14% growth in order inflow continues to remain

for FY 18.

Robust pipeline of order book of Rs 6 lakh crore

pipelines exists for the company in FY 18.

Expect Revenue to grow by around 12% in FY 18.

New highway project (Bharatmala) recently

announced by GOI with an estimated investment of

Rs. 6.9 lakh crore, we expect that would give a

strong order inflow going forward.

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Company Data




3m average volume NSE N/A

Beta N/A

Face value ( RS ) 10

Shareholding (%) Q2FY2018

Promoters 75.0%

Institutions 13.7%


Key Financials

FY17 FY16 FY15

Net Sales (Cr) 2057 1985 1838

EBITDA (Cr) 530 499 167

PAT (Cr) 312 291 235 Net Profit Margin (%) 15.1% 14.7% 12.6%

EPS (RS) 27.6 25.7 20.7

Book Value (Cr) 2031 1824 1561

P/E 23.6 NA NA

P/BV 2.57 Na NA

RoNW(%) 15.4% 16.0% 15.1%

RoCE(%) 14.3% 14.8% 13.8%

Cochin Shipyard Ltd. Sector: Ship Building NSE CODE: COCHINSHIP

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 571| Target: Rs 650

TECHNICAL VIEW:

The stock has formed double bottom formation around 520

and formed W pattern formation. This pattern formed is

with strong volumes and in the upmove from 520 to 575

was with single bullish weekly candlestick pattern

We expect the stock to keep its uptrend and we expect

pattern wise target of 650 in timeframe of around 1 year.

Cochin Shipyard, a public sector enterprise, is one of the

most stable companies in the Indian shipbuilding and ship

repair sector. Over the years, the company has emerged as

a premier player in the Indian shipbuilding segment with

expertise in design, engineering and project

implementation. It is also a market leader in the Indian

ship repair segment with a market share of around 39

percent and has undertaken repairs of most complex ships

of the country. As on FY17, shipbuilding constitutes 74

percent of the topline while ship repair comprises the

remaining 26 percent.

Outlook

We believe Cochin Shipyard's strong order book (Rs 2,856

crore) plus L1 status of Rs 5400 crore, bidding pipeline

(around Rs 11,900 crore), core competency in both

shipbuilding & ship repair (especially defence), debt-free

status, best-in-class working capital cycle, reliability in

execution and being a natural beneficiary of large &

critical government projects place it in a sweet spot.The

company is consciously improving its business mix by

increasing the share of ship-repairs orders (2x profitable

than shipbuilding business) in its order book.

The company enjoys strong competitive advantage due to

its large dry dock capacity. This leads to large defence

vessels like aircraft carriers coming only to Cochin

Shipyard for its repairs/ refits. Cochin Shipyard is also

building a new larger size shipbuilding and ship repair

facility at a cost of Rs 2,768 crore. This new capacity is

likely to enable the company to build larger ships and

repair more vessels.

Cochin Shipyard has a strong balance sheet with debt of

Rs 123 crore and cash of Rs 1,600 crore. We recommend to accumulate Cochin Shipyard with 12 month price target of Rs 650.

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Company Data




3m average volume NSE 976,880

Beta 1.28

Face value ( RS ) 2

Shareholding (%) Q2 FY 2018

Promoters 40.1%

Institutions 39.6%


Key Financials

FY17 FY16 FY15

Net Sales (Cr) 35628 36218 32438

EBITDA (Cr) 8332 6996 5673


EPS (RS) 67.8 252.7 189.8

Book Value (Cr) 31386 25831 23140

P/E 17.8 4.8 6.4

P/BV 1.6 1.4 1.4

RoNW(%) 10.1% 9.1% 7.6%

RoCE(%) 6.1% 5.3% 4.3%

Grasim Industries Ltd. Sector: Diversified NSE CODE: GRASIM

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 1187 | Target: Rs 1350

TECHNICAL VIEW:

Stock has given given breakout around 1211 after

forming symmetrical triangle pattern,. It has also taken

support at 100ema and 200ema and move up, indicating

positive rally in the stock for coming months.

Momentum oscillators RSI and Slow Stochastic are in

strength at current levels with other trend indicator ADX

moving up, all indicating uptrend for the stock.

We expect that the stock will breakout of the pattern

formed and we expect target price of 1350 in 1 year

timeframe.

Grasim operates business in different segments namely

VSF, Chemical and cements.

During the quarter VSF business grew by 11% in terms

of revenue to Rs. 1836 crore, with an EBITDA margin of

8%. The business was impacted by Destocking in

domestic market ahead of GST implementation.

Chemical business saw 20% revenue growth in Q1 to Rs.

1084 crore, with an EBITDA margin of 5% with this the

company reported highest ever quarterly margin. The

volume growth for the quarter was 4%, impacted by

Excess supply of Chlorine remains an overhang for the

industry.

During the quarter the company reported 7% growth in

cement business with an EBITDA margin of 11%. The

volume was grown by 1%, weak volume growth largely

due to muted cement demand, destocking by dealers for

implementation of GST.

Outlook

Business outlook expected to remain stable for FY18;

Company’s continued focus on expanding usage and

application of VSF in domestic textile market would

drive the growth.

Chemical business growth expected to be stable for the

year, supported by growth in user industries like Textile,

Aluminum, Paper, Soap and Detergent etc.

Favorable outlook for cement industry (Affordable

housing, Infrastructure spending) would ensure the

growth.

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Company Data




3m average volume NSE N/A

Beta N/A

Face value ( RS ) 10


Promoters 55.9%

Institutions 13.1%


Key Financials

FY17 FY16 FY15

Net Sales (Cr) 981 709 740

PBITDA (Cr) 880 704 704


EPS (RS) 14.3 11.3 13.1

Book Value (Cr) 3725 3235 2885

P/E 47.8 NA NA

P/BV 8.3 NA NA

RoNW(%) 17.2% 15.6% 20.3%

RoCE(%) 13.1% 14.2% 18.1%

ICICI Lombard General Insurance Ltd. Sector: Insurance– Non Life NSE CODE: ICICIGI ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 683 |Target: Rs 750

ICICI Lombard is a leading general insurance private

sector company in India with a Gross Written Premium of

Rs. 109.6 billion as on FY17. The company has well-

diversified portfolio comprising of Motor insurance at

38%, health and personal accident at 17%, crop insurance

at 25% and property at 20% of GDPI.

During H1FY18 Gross Direct Premium increased to 64.94

billion compared to ` 55.65 billion last year same period,

registering a growth of 16.7%. During Q2FY18 risk

selection has resulted in an improvement in loss ratio to

78.5% in Q2 FY2018 from 83.8% in Q2 FY2017. Claims

incurred include losses of Net claims of ` 0.18 billion on

account of the recent floods in Q2 FY2018.

During the quarter PAT grew at 19.3% to 2.04 billion

compared to 1.71 billion in Q2 FY2017. ROE improved

by 20 bps Y-o-Y, i.e. was 20.2% in Q2 FY2018 compared

to 20.0% in Q2 FY2017.

Outlook:

Have broad network of distribution partner would give a

strong competitive advantage to expand customer base and

new product offerings.

Continues focus on innovative products offering to retail

health segment and SME segment would bring a good

growth.

Well diversified products mix (motor, health & personal

accident, crop, fire, marine, engineering insurance) helping

to leveraging the overall business.Through digitization and

focus on specialized products for SMEs would helps to

capture the SMEs segment.

During FY17 the company earned premium of Rs. 6157

crore, grew by 9.1% CAGR in last 4 years, where their

PAT has been grew by 5.36% CAGR to Rs. 641 crore. We

believe the company will maintain it’s growth rate going

forward by catering new products and continuous focusing

on product development with diversified product portfolio.

The company currently traded on a PE of 47.8X on FY17

EPS and 8.3x of FY17 BV; we expect the strong growth

outlook would bring up the rating near future. Therefore

we giving a buy call on current level with TP of 750

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Company Data




3m average volume NSE 189,734

Beta 0.70

Face value ( RS ) 1.00


Promoters 75.0%

Institutions 15.3%


Key Financials

FY17 FY16 FY15

Net Sales (Cr) 4042 3859 3570

EBITDA (Cr) 835 602 472


EPS (RS) 9.4 16.6 5.1

Book Value (Cr) 2814 2295 1601

P/E 51.5 29.2 94.9

P/BV 7.2% 6.6% 7.3%

RoNW(%) 18.1% 38.9% 17.1%

RoCE(%) 17.4% 36.7% 15.6%

Kansai Nerolac Ltd. Sector: Paints NSE CODE: KANSAINER

BUY | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 502 |Target: Rs 580

Kansai is the well known player and also 2nd largest paint

company in India. Company’s products include

Decorative, Automotive, Auto Refinish, and Performance

Coating and Powder Coating segments of the market.

During Q2FY18 sales grew sales grew 3% to Rs 1164.38

crore, operating profit margin improved 150 basis points to

19.0% which saw OP grow 12% to Rs 221.32 crore; As

depreciation grew 9% to Rs 18.70 crore, PBT grew 3% to

Rs 216.78 crore. The continue affect of higher raw

material prices impact the margin.

The company is the market leader in industrial paint

industry, supplied to major automotive companies in India

as well as major Industrial houses. With growing demand

in automobile sector would give major benefit to Nerolac.

Also the focus on developing innovative products in

Decorative Paints segment would give extra benefit to

capture the market.

The company’s industrial business is expected to do well

by rising consumer goods demand. And the company is

strengthening its presence by supplying to Fans, Drum &

Barrels, Construction Equipment, Helmet, LPG etc. and

has further strengthened its share in segments like Auto

Ancillaries, Furniture, and White Goods industry.

Management believes implementation of GST and its

broader acceptance coupled with a good monsoon, demand

would be healthy across segments.

TECHNICAL VIEW:

The stock is in a long term uptrend following classical step

and ladder formation correcting 36.8% Fibonacci

retracement after substantial upmove. Currently it is in its

3rd upmove.

With momentum indicators RSI being in strength showing

uptrend. Weekly ADX has not turned negative in its entire

historical upmove which shows inherent strength in the

stock.

The third upmove is usually the highest move and we

expect the stock rally till 580 in long term

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Disclaimer

RATING PARAMETER

BUY We expect the stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12

months

ACCUMULATE We expect the stock to deliver 6% - 15% returns over the next 12 months

REDUCE We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 12

months

SELL We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 12 months NOTE Target prices are for a period of 12-month perspective. Returns stated in the

rating parameter are for our internal benchmark.

TECHNICAL CALL RATING PARAMETER

BUY A condition that indicates a good time to buy a stock. The exact circumstances of the signal will be determined by the

indicator that an analyst is using.

SELL A condition that indicates a good time to sell a stock. The exact circumstances of the signal will be determined by the

indicator that an analyst is using.

STOP LOSS An instruction to the broker to buy or sell stock when it trades beyond a specified price. They serve to either protect

your profits or limit your losses.

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`

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I/We, author/s (Research Team) and the name/s subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my/our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. I/we (Research Analyst) also certify that no part of my/our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. I/we or my/our relative or PSL may have financial interest in the subject company. Also I/we or my/our relative or PSL or its associates does not have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report. Since associates/group of PSL is engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/s mentioned in this report. I/we have not served as officer/director etc in the subject company.

Peerless Securities Limited: Registered Office: Peerless Mansion, 1 Chowringhee Square, 2nd Floor, Kolkata 700069.

Telephone No.: 033 4050 2700, Fax No.: 033 2243 6941. Website: www.peerlesssec.co.in

SEBI Registration No.: NSE INB/INE/INF 230821137, BSE INB010821131, BSE Currency- SEBI registered; AMFI ARN 2103, NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-96-99,

DP ID: IN300958; CDSL: IN-DP-CDSL-505-2009; Research Analyst INH300002365, CIN: U67120WB1995PLC067616

Our research should not be considered as an advertisement or advice, professional or otherwise. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors including their financial condition, suitability to risk return profile and the like and take professional advice before investing. Investments in securities are subject to market risk, please read all the related documents carefully before investing. Please read the SEBI prescribed Combined Risk Disclosure Document (refer to SEBI website) prior to investing. Derivatives are a sophisticated investment device. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors before actually trading in derivative contracts.

Compliance Officer: Mr. Raj Kumar Mukherjee. Call: 033-4050-2700, Email: [email protected]

Peerless Securities Limited Registered Office: 1, Chowringhee Square, 2nd Floor, Kolkata- 700 069 Phone: +91-33-4050-2700/6450-2002/2243-5942, Fax: +91-33-2243 6941 Institutional Office: 11-A, Mittal Towers, 1st floor, Nariman Point, Mumbai – 400 021 Phone: +91-22-2284 1411, 22-6630 3810, Fax: +91-22-2284 1316

Name E-mail

Amartya Ray [email protected]

Kaushik Hore [email protected]

SEBI REGN. NO. NSE: INB/INF 230821137, BSE: INB 010821131, NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-96-99, CDSL: IN-DP-CDSL-505-2009, ARN - 2103
http://www.peerlesssec.co.in/http://www.nseindia.com/http://www.peerlesssec.co.in/http://www.sebi.gov.in/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

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