peak oil professor leonard rodberg department of urban studies office powdermaker rm 250a email...
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Peak Oil
Professor Leonard RodbergDepartment of Urban Studies
Office Powdermaker Rm 250A Email [email protected]
Telephone 718-997-5134
Global Climate Change and Public Policy
US Oil Production and Imports
2004
The Time Course of Production of any Non-renewal Resource according to M. King Hubbert
It Gets Harder and Harder to Find Oil
Hubbert Curve for US Oil Production - 1956
US Oil Production and Imports
2004
The Paper that Started It All…
*Publication No. 95, Shell Development Company, Exploration and Production Research Division, Houston, Texas
**Chief Consultant (General Geology).
World Energy Use by Fuel
Hubbert Curve for World Oil Production - 1956
The Decline of New Oil Discoveries
Oil Production Worldwide
The Optimists’ View
Taking the Long View: The History of the Human Race
according to M. King Hubbert
It’s Getting Warmer
And the Sea Level is Rising
Greenhouse Effect
What are the Greenhouse Gases?• Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
• Methane (CH4)
Principal Source: Burning of Fossil Fuels: Oil, natural gas/methane, coal Hydrocarbons (CnHm)) + Oxygen (O2) CO2 + H2O
Also Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
Radiative Forcing Components
Carbon, and Fossil Fuels, are the Culprit
The Concentration of CO2 is Growing
Impacts Worldwide
GLOBAL WARMING: Early Warning GLOBAL WARMING: Early Warning SignsSigns
Fingerprints and HarbingersHeat waves and periods of unusually warm weather
Sea level rise and coastal flooding
Glaciers melting
Arctic and Antarctic warming
Spreading disease
Earlier spring arrival
Plant and animal range shifts and population declines
Coral reef bleaching
Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding
Droughts and fires
www.climatehotmap.org
U.S. Carbon Stabilization via Wedges
Source: Lashof and Hawkins, NRDC, in Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September 2006, p. 57
Wind ElectricityWind Electricity
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:
One million 2-MW windmills displacing coal power.
Today: 50,000 MW (1/40)
Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany
(Danish Wind Industry Association)
Wind Electricity
Photovoltaic Power
ElectricityElectricityNuclearNuclear
Site: Surry station, James River, VA; 1625 MW since 1972-73.Credit: Dominion.
A revised goal: retrievable storage Natural-U plants (no enrichment), no reprocessingUniversal rules and international governance
Phase out of nuclear power creates the need for another half wedge.
Nuclear ElectricityEffort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:
700 GW (twice current capacity) displacing coal power.
Biofuels
Efficient Use of ElectricityEfficient Use of Electricity
lightingmotors cogeneration
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:
.25% reduction in expected 2055 electricity use in commercial and residential buildings
Target commercial and multifamily buildings.
Efficient Use of Electricity
Efficient Use of FuelEfficient Use of Fuel
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:
Note: 1 car driven 10,000 miles at 30 mpg emits 1 ton of carbon.
2 billion cars driven 10,000 miles per year at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg.
2 billion cars driven, at 30 mpg, 5,000 instead of 10,000 miles per year.
Property-tax systems that reinvigorate cities and discourage sprawl
Efficient Use of Fuel
Carbon StorageCarbon Storage
Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA Graphic courtesy of David Hawkins
Sleipner project, offshore Norway
Carbon Storage
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:
3500 Sleipners @1 MtCO2/yr
100 x U.S. CO2 injection rate for EOR
A flow of CO2 into the Earth equal to the flow of oil out of the Earth today
Reforestation and Land Conservation
NYC Energy Profile 1979
Saving Energy in NYC
Source: L. Rodberg and G. Stokes, The Village Voice, Feb. 18, 1980
PlaNYC Mitigation Measures
PlaNYC Wedges
Planning for a Major Hurricane
Both Adaptation and Mitigation:Mayor’s PlaNYC Adapts to Some
Inevitable Climate Change
• Protect our city’s vital infrastructure
• Work with vulnerable neighborhoods to develop site-specific strategies
• Launch a citywide strategic planning process for climate change adaptation