“Peak Oil” – It’s coming

Dave Kilsby

ASPO Australia

It can’t be ignored

Why does it matter?

time

qu

anti

ty/y

ear

Demand

Supply

rising pricesharder procurementfalling EPR

we are somewhere near here

Forecast Transport Energy Consumption Growth for

AustraliaSource: Energy White Paper 2004

ASPO Australia

aims to:

• encourage the acknowledgement and study of Peak Oil particularly as it affects Australia

• be a source of independent information for businesses, governments and communities

• collaborate with other bodies to help prepare and implement relevant policies and strategies

• promote awareness of the issue of peak oil and gas

ASPO Australia Working Groups

• Oil & gas industry• Biofuels• Indigenous & Remote

Communities• Agriculture, fisheries

& food• Finance & economics

• Urban & transport planning

• Social services• Active transport• Construction industry• Health sector

• Defence

+ working groups for NSW, Victoria, Queensland, ACT, WA, SA

How much oil and gas is there? (ASPO 2005 estimate)

What about Australia? Haven’t we got plenty of our own oil?

Not for much longer! (Geosciences Australia)

Recent oil price fluctuationsWeekly average closing price for Nymex crude

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Week (Week 1 - early June 2004)

US

$/b

arr

el

Unreliability of ABARE forecasts3, 6, 9 and 12 month forecasts

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Dec-99 Apr-01 Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05

Oct-06

Date

WT

I p

rice

, U

S$/

bb

l

3 month prediction

6 month prediction

9 month prediction

12 month prediction

actual price

VAMPIRE(Source: Dodson & Sipe, Griffith University,2006)

Alternatives to cars (from Sydney Metro Strategy)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Tonnes Tonne-km

AirSeaRailRoad

Domestic freight task % moved by mode 1999-2000

Alternative transport fuels?

• Renewables

• Biofuels

• Conventional oil

• Unconventional oil

• Natural gas

• Coal

• Nuclear

• Hydrogen

Conclusions

• Transport over 40% of final energy use in Australia

• Transport heavily dependent on liquid fuels (oil)

• The age of cheap oil is almost over• Short-term urgency in planning for

post-oil age• More mitigation options in cities than

in rural areas

What to do?• Commonwealth to become involved• “Do nothing” not an option• No magic bullet • ASPO Australia advocates

– community engagement, individualised marketing, fuel tax escalator, tradeable fuel allocation system

• Leadership required • Buy time!

For further information

• www.sydneypeakoil.com – Sydney Peak Oil Group

• www.aspo-australia.org.au– ASPO Australia

• www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/rrat-ctte– over 180 submissions to an Inquiry into oil supply &

alternative fuels: …/oil_supply/submissions/sublist.html

• www.peakoil.net– ASPO

• www.energybulletin.net– (one of many good international sites for Peak Oil info)