Peak Oil: Implications for Peak Oil: Implications for Sustainable Natural Resources Sustainable Natural Resources

ManagementManagement

David L. TraugerDavid L. TraugerVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State UniversityVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

J. Edward GatesJ. Edward GatesUniversity of Maryland Center for Environmental University of Maryland Center for Environmental

ScienceScience

USDA Forest Service Sustainable Operations USDA Forest Service Sustainable Operations SummitSummit

November 18-20, 2008November 18-20, 2008

IntroductionIntroduction

Contemporary natural resources management Contemporary natural resources management is highly dependent on cheap, abundant is highly dependent on cheap, abundant energyenergy

A critical evaluation of implications of Peak Oil A critical evaluation of implications of Peak Oil is needed in order to anticipate and plan for a is needed in order to anticipate and plan for a range of “futures”range of “futures”

We will face great challenges as well as We will face great challenges as well as opportunities in different biogeographic opportunities in different biogeographic regions as we adjust to new realities during regions as we adjust to new realities during the coming decadesthe coming decades

Global Peak OilGlobal Peak Oil

Energy governs how we do our jobsEnergy governs how we do our jobs – Powering facilities, computers, generators, Powering facilities, computers, generators,

or motor vehiclesor motor vehicles– Consuming food energy hiking to the next Consuming food energy hiking to the next

observation or sampling point observation or sampling point – Manufacturing some useful field or Manufacturing some useful field or

laboratory device or tool laboratory device or tool

Much of what we describe here will Much of what we describe here will be influenced by future economic be influenced by future economic conditions and whether we can avoid conditions and whether we can avoid collapsecollapse

Management Implications Management Implications of Peak Oilof Peak Oil

Impacts on BudgetsImpacts on Budgets

Impacts on OperationsImpacts on Operations

Impacts on MaintenanceImpacts on Maintenance

Impacts on PersonnelImpacts on Personnel

Impacts on BudgetsImpacts on Budgets

Expensive, increasingly scarce oil Expensive, increasingly scarce oil will not only affect our ability to drive will not only affect our ability to drive our cars and trucks, but…our cars and trucks, but…

Costs of everything will go up Costs of everything will go up dramaticallydramatically– Effects will ripple throughout our national economyEffects will ripple throughout our national economy– Significantly impact institutional and agency Significantly impact institutional and agency

budgetsbudgets

Major Budgetary ImplicationsMajor Budgetary Implications

Greater justification of expenditures and a Greater justification of expenditures and a sharper focus on setting program prioritiessharper focus on setting program priorities

Mandated high efficiency in both Mandated high efficiency in both operations and equipmentoperations and equipment

Curtailment or elimination of obsolete or Curtailment or elimination of obsolete or inefficient programs or operationsinefficient programs or operations

Sharing of resources and responsibilities Sharing of resources and responsibilities among personnel and different agenciesamong personnel and different agencies

Impacts on OperationsImpacts on Operations Operations may be focused within Operations may be focused within

autonomous administrative regionsautonomous administrative regions- - Movement of personnel around the Movement of personnel around the

country or state or province may be too country or state or province may be too costlycostly

Greater reliance on electronic Greater reliance on electronic communications using renewable communications using renewable energy sourcesenergy sources

- - Brownouts and blackouts may affect theBrownouts and blackouts may affect the

electrical grid’s dependabilityelectrical grid’s dependability

Forests, Refuges, Parks, and Forests, Refuges, Parks, and other Public Landsother Public Lands

Lack of disposable income may mean Lack of disposable income may mean fewer visitations by the publicfewer visitations by the public– Declines in ecotourism leading to economic Declines in ecotourism leading to economic

nonviabilitynonviability

Pressure to privatize or open public lands Pressure to privatize or open public lands for needed revenues to operatefor needed revenues to operate– Directly for income to support operationsDirectly for income to support operations– Indirectly for metals, minerals, hydrocarbons, Indirectly for metals, minerals, hydrocarbons,

geothermal, wood, biomass, etc.geothermal, wood, biomass, etc.

Species ManagementSpecies Management Recreational hunting, fishing, and camping likely Recreational hunting, fishing, and camping likely

will declinewill decline – Increase in poaching and timber theft for subsistenceIncrease in poaching and timber theft for subsistence

Rare, threatened, and endangered speciesRare, threatened, and endangered species– Increase in extirpation and extinctionIncrease in extirpation and extinction

Greater emphasis on law enforcementGreater emphasis on law enforcement

Exotic and invasive speciesExotic and invasive species– Control may be too expensiveControl may be too expensive

Habitat and landscape restorationHabitat and landscape restoration– Let’s work with nature!Let’s work with nature!

Inventories, Monitoring, and Inventories, Monitoring, and ResearchResearch

Research activitiesResearch activities– Greatly reduced capability Greatly reduced capability – Focus on rigorous and integrated adaptive Focus on rigorous and integrated adaptive

resource managementresource management

Activities dependent on extensive use of Activities dependent on extensive use of manned, motorized craftmanned, motorized craft– Severely compromised, e.g. Routine patrols, Severely compromised, e.g. Routine patrols, Fire fighting, Breeding Waterfowl Surveys, Fire fighting, Breeding Waterfowl Surveys, Big Game SurveysBig Game Surveys

Surveys using volunteersSurveys using volunteers– Breeding Bird Survey, etc., may become Breeding Bird Survey, etc., may become

difficult to maintaindifficult to maintain

Remotely accessed or automated Remotely accessed or automated monitoring systemsmonitoring systems– Expansion of their applicationExpansion of their application– Role in law enforcementRole in law enforcement

Increased costs will mean that there Increased costs will mean that there will be even fewer incentives to travel will be even fewer incentives to travel long distances to meetings, long distances to meetings, particularly via jet planesparticularly via jet planes– InternationalInternational– NationalNational– RegionalRegional– StateState

TravelTravel

Impacts on MaintenanceImpacts on Maintenance

Reduction of many types of Reduction of many types of maintenance and repairmaintenance and repair– Road maintenance and other access pointsRoad maintenance and other access points– Non-essential infrastructure, e.g., visitor Non-essential infrastructure, e.g., visitor

servicesservices

Recovery from catastrophic events Recovery from catastrophic events will be problematicwill be problematic– Wind storms, wild fires, tornadoes, floods, Wind storms, wild fires, tornadoes, floods,

hurricanes, etc.hurricanes, etc.

Maintaining levees, dikes, and other Maintaining levees, dikes, and other impoundments will be expensiveimpoundments will be expensive- Especially in coastal areas where sea Especially in coastal areas where sea

level rise is predictedlevel rise is predicted

Retrofit, Repair, and Recycling will Retrofit, Repair, and Recycling will be new watchwordsbe new watchwords

Impacts on PersonnelImpacts on Personnel Adjustment in types of positionsAdjustment in types of positions

– Less centralization or hierarchical organizationLess centralization or hierarchical organization– Greater decision-making autonomy by regional or Greater decision-making autonomy by regional or

local managerslocal managers– Flexibility and adaptability in the workplace with Flexibility and adaptability in the workplace with

emphasis on re-training and less specializationemphasis on re-training and less specialization

Fewer researchers and more personnel Fewer researchers and more personnel involved with law enforcementinvolved with law enforcement

Fewer volunteers Fewer volunteers

More “public works” programsMore “public works” programs– Similar to old Civilian Conservation CorpsSimilar to old Civilian Conservation Corps– But, will governments have the revenues?But, will governments have the revenues?

Sustainable approaches will be an Sustainable approaches will be an overriding goaloverriding goal

Demand for personnel with particular Demand for personnel with particular skillsskills– Law enforcementLaw enforcement– Adaptive resource managementAdaptive resource management– Remote sensing and GISRemote sensing and GIS– Information technology and electronic Information technology and electronic

communicationcommunication– Equipment maintenance and repairEquipment maintenance and repair– Care of livestock, i.e., pack animals and horses!Care of livestock, i.e., pack animals and horses!

Universities — declining budgets, declining Universities — declining budgets, declining student enrollments, declining research student enrollments, declining research dollars, and downsizing facultydollars, and downsizing faculty– Fewer students going into forestry, wildlife, fisheries, and Fewer students going into forestry, wildlife, fisheries, and

other conservation fields due to costs and lack of jobsother conservation fields due to costs and lack of jobs– Emphasis on training fewer post-graduatesEmphasis on training fewer post-graduates– Major universities will undergo contraction in many disciplinesMajor universities will undergo contraction in many disciplines– Smaller colleges and universities nearer to home may Smaller colleges and universities nearer to home may

weather the storm betterweather the storm better

Approaches to education and training will Approaches to education and training will change and evolvechange and evolve– Alternatives to attending universityAlternatives to attending university

» Distance learning and training technologies, e.g., CDs, DVDs, Distance learning and training technologies, e.g., CDs, DVDs, web, interactive video network web, interactive video network

» Scattered faculty offer a coherent program of specialized training Scattered faculty offer a coherent program of specialized training to a wider audienceto a wider audience

OpportunitiesOpportunities Will we be able to react quickly enough?Will we be able to react quickly enough?

Duplication and waste will be less tolerated Duplication and waste will be less tolerated due to high costs and focus on due to high costs and focus on sustainability sustainability

Decision making will be streamlined and Decision making will be streamlined and entrusted to those on the “front lines”entrusted to those on the “front lines”– Innovative, logical, multi-taskes, risk takersInnovative, logical, multi-taskes, risk takers– Initiative and success rewardedInitiative and success rewarded

Employees will be challenged by a dynamic Employees will be challenged by a dynamic work environmentwork environment– Novel situations and conditionsNovel situations and conditions– Need for adaptability and innovationNeed for adaptability and innovation

Can We be Proactive?Can We be Proactive?

Most budget adjustments and expenditures Most budget adjustments and expenditures must be made early while energy is still must be made early while energy is still relatively cheap and abundant and before relatively cheap and abundant and before other costs rise…the future is NOW!other costs rise…the future is NOW!

However, could be a difficult task given flat However, could be a difficult task given flat or declining budgets and inflationary or declining budgets and inflationary pressurespressures

Doing more with less will surely take on new Doing more with less will surely take on new meaning for allmeaning for all

Efficiency and ConservationEfficiency and Conservation

History shows that savings due to increased fuel-efficiency can easily be wiped out by “increased population (number of drivers) and energy use (travel)”

Not a strategy to enable “business as usual,” but one to effect a net reduction in oil consumption

Must be coupled with the eventual elimination of greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels

Solar and WindSolar and Wind

Retrofitting Retrofitting existing facilities existing facilities and operating field and operating field equipmentequipment– Example: Eastern Example: Eastern

Neck National Neck National Wildlife Refuge on Wildlife Refuge on Maryland’s upper Maryland’s upper Eastern ShoreEastern Shore

Prediction: Budget pressures will force consolidation of Prediction: Budget pressures will force consolidation of natural resources agencies across the U.S. natural resources agencies across the U.S. Government in the next 5 years.Government in the next 5 years.

Flash: Creation of a Flash: Creation of a Earth Systems Science AgencyEarth Systems Science Agency proposed byproposed by merging National Oceanic and merging National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. Geological Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. Geological Survey.Survey.

Question: Can the USDA Forest Service, U. S. Fish Question: Can the USDA Forest Service, U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Bureau of Land Management, and Wildlife Service, Bureau of Land Management, and National Park Service be far behind? Hummm… and National Park Service be far behind? Hummm… Natural Resources Management AgencyNatural Resources Management Agency has a certain has a certain ring to it!ring to it!

ConclusionsConclusions Peak Oil will force drastic changes in Peak Oil will force drastic changes in

natural resource management programs natural resource management programs and prioritiesand priorities

Major challenge to protect and manage the Major challenge to protect and manage the integrity of our forests and other biotic integrity of our forests and other biotic systemssystems

Greater emphasis on Greater emphasis on REALREAL sustainable sustainable resource management strategies resource management strategies

Whether we leave a natural heritage for our Whether we leave a natural heritage for our descendents and future generations will descendents and future generations will depend on the pathway we take now!depend on the pathway we take now!