peak oil futures
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Peak Oil Futures: a possible transport scenario to 2030 and its consequences, using the “4see” model
By Simon Roberts, Arup (Foresight, Innovation and Incubation Group)
15th November 2011
For APPGOPO, Westminster
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• “Peak oil” is a global problem..→
• ..but take a UK perspective
• How might the UK prepare?
• Apply Arup’s “4see” model (socio-economic and energy)
• Develop an example scenario (not a forecast) of possible feasible proactive steps to reduce oil dependency
Global oil demand for 1920-2008 with extrapolations to 2050.
ITP
OE
S R
epor
t 2, F
ebru
ary
2010
Introduction
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Challenge for the scenario
• Acceptable by society: - acknowledge driving behaviour
• Technically feasible: - scaleable over next 10 years
• Economically affordable: - not bankrupt UK economy
• Politically acceptable: - check side effects on economy
• Data sources: - use official statistics and other reputable sources
Scenario constraints
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• Petroleum products (pet-prod) use in transport →
• Chart shows the main users: - vans (LGV) - trucks (HGV) * - aviation - cars *
• Total oil (petroleum products) use by UK, historical data →
Use in the UK of petroleum products
Total petroleum products consumed4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ/y
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4see model
Introduction to one part of the model
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Cars
Cars
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Cars: data for numbers of
Cars data
Size of car fleet32,000
24,000
16,000
8,000
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
k
New cars per year3,200
2,400
1,600
800
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
k ve
h/y
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Cars: stocks-and-flows model
Cars stocks and flows
New cars per year3,200
2,400
1,600
800
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
k ve
h/y
Size of car fleet32,000
24,000
16,000
8,000
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
k14.5 years
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Cars: data for fuel use and distance travelled
Cars data
Total car km440,000
330,000
220,000
110,000
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
M v
eh k
m/y
Pet-prod use by cars1,200
900
600
300
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ/y
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Cars: process flows model
Cars process flows
Average car km per year20
15
10
5
01990 1998 2006 2014 2022 2030
k km
/(y*v
eh)
Average car fuel consumption0.004
0.003
0.002
0.001
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ/M
veh
km
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Cars: full model, trended forward
Cars model
14.5 years
New cars per year3,200
2,400
1,600
800
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
k/y
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Trucks
Trucks
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13 Trucks model
Size of truck fleet600
450
300
150
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
k
New trucks per year60
45
30
15
01990 1998 2006 2014 2022 2030
k ve
h/y
Average truck km per year80
60
40
20
01990 1998 2006 2014 2022 2030
k km
/(y*v
eh)
Average truck fuel consumption0.016
0.012
0.008
0.004
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ/M
veh
km
New trucks per year80
60
40
20
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
k ve
h/y
Average truck km per year80
60
40
20
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
k km
/(y*v
eh)
Average truck fuel consumption0.016
0.012
0.008
0.004
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ/M
veh
km
10.2 years
Trucks: stocks-and-flows and process flows model
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Scenario
Developing the transport part
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• Cumulative costs of measures to reduce use of petroleum products by transportation →
Business as usual (BAU)
• Total consumption of petroleum products used by all transportation →
Developing scenario I
Petroleum products for transport2,400
1,800
1,200
600
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ/y
£(1990) cost of measures16,000
12,000
8,000
4,000
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
AM
£/y
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• The upper estimate assumes 10% supply from first generation biofuels because biofuels will also be important to achieving the Fuel Quality Directive
• A significant proportion of UK biofuels are currently sourced abroad
• Difference between AEA’s upper and lower estimates in 2030 is 2,000 Ml/y (53 PJ/y)
• First generation technologies for biofuel: - bioethanol technologies use
sugar beet or wheat - biodiesel processes use rape seed
oil, palm oil or soy oil
"Analysis of Renewables Growth to 2020", AEA Techology, March 2010, July 2011
Bioliquids
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• Bioliquids - Additional 53 PJ/y (2,000 Ml/y)
in 2030
Developing scenario I
Petroleum products for transport2,400
1,800
1,200
600
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ/y
£(1990) cost of measures16,000
12,000
8,000
4,000
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
AM
£/y
↓
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• Cars energy efficiency - Lightweighting 10% - Low rolling resistance tyres 3% - Improved aerodynamics 3% - Direct injection and lean burn
11% - Variable valve actuation 6% - Downsizing engine capacity with - turbocharging or supercharging
12% - Dual clutch transmission 4% - Stop–start 3% - Stop–start with regenerative
braking 7% - Electric motor assist 7% - Reduced mechanical friction
components 4%
“By adopting a small selection of the most cost-effective technologies, 30 per cent efficiency savings could be achieved for the average new vehicle, relative to today’s equivalent model.”
Interim analytical report , October 2007
Car energy efficiency
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• Bioliquids
• Energy efficiency of new cars - “by adopting a small selection of
the most cost-effective technologies”
- 30% improvement - £1,500 per vehicle (in 2007) - 50% of all new cars
Developing scenario I
Petroleum products for transport2,400
1,800
1,200
600
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ/y
£(1990) cost of measures16,000
12,000
8,000
4,000
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
AM
£/y
↓
↑
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Trucks energy efficiency:
• Aerodynamically shaped trailers
• Aerodynamic fairings
• Spray reduction mud flaps
• Low rolling resistance tyres
• Single wide tyres
• Automatic tyre pressure adjustment
• Vehicle platooning
Ricardo report, March 2010
Truck energy efficiency
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• Bioliquids
• Energy efficiency of new cars
• Energy efficiency of new trucks - 44% improvement - £16,300 per truck (in 2009) - 50% of all new trucks
Developing scenario I
Petroleum products for transport2,400
1,800
1,200
600
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ/y
£(1990) cost of measures16,000
12,000
8,000
4,000
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
AM
£/y
↓
↑
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1999: Peugoet 106 electric with on-street charging point, opened by Kate Hoey MP 2004: 1kWp PV array on roof providing 2/3 of electricity for EV
Prius hybrid (2000) Vegetable oil filling diesel VW camper
Personal experience
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"Rev
iew
of l
ow c
arbo
n te
chno
logi
es fo
r hea
vy g
oods
veh
icle
s“ A
pril
2010
Cars trips and fuel use
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24 Opel/Vauxhall Ampera, range-extended EV
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• Bioliquids
• Energy efficiency of new cars
• Energy efficiency of new trucks
• Plug-in hybrid/ ranged-extended EV - range 35km corresponding to
57% of usage - but presume plugged in for only
2/3 of potential electric range - £6,500 per vehicle (in 2007)
from The King Review - 50% of new vehicles
Developing scenario I
Petroleum products for transport2,400
1,800
1,200
600
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ/y
£(1990) cost of measures16,000
12,000
8,000
4,000
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
AM
£/y
↓
↑
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Natural & bio Gas Vehicle Association (NGVA)
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• Bioliquids
• Energy efficiency of new cars
• Energy efficiency of new trucks
• Plug-in hybrid/ranged-extended electric vehicle
• Compressed natural gas (CNG) on new cars - £5,000 per vehicle (in 2003) - 50% of new vehicles - convert 1,300 filling stations
Developing scenario I
Petroleum products for transport2,400
1,800
1,200
600
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ/y
£(1990) cost of measures16,000
12,000
8,000
4,000
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
AM
£/y
↓
↑
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• Increased gas use… →
“2050 Pathways Analysis” DECC
• Onshore wind: - Level 1: 11 GW - Level 2: 20 GW - Level 3: 31 GW
• Offshore wind: - Level 1: 8 GW - Level 2: 46 GW - Level 3: 68 GW
• …offset by wind turbines →
Offset gas use by wind turbines
Total consumption of gas4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ/y
Total consumption of gas4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ/y
↑
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• Bioliquids
• Energy efficiency of new cars
• Energy efficiency of new trucks
• Plug-in hybrid/ranged-extended electric vehicle - With extra 9 GW onshore
• Compressed natural gas (CNG) on new cars - With extra 27 GW offshore
Developing scenario I
Petroleum products for transport2,400
1,800
1,200
600
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ/y
£(1990) cost of measures16,000
12,000
8,000
4,000
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
AM
£/y
↑
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• Bioliquids
• Energy efficiency of new cars - 25% of new cars
• Energy efficiency of new trucks - 50% of new trucks
• Plug-in hybrid/ranged-extended electric vehicle - 25% of new cars - With extra 3.5 GW onshore
• Compressed natural gas (CNG) on new cars - 25% of new cars - With extra 17 GW offshore
Developing scenario II
Petroleum products for transport2,400
1,800
1,200
600
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ/y
£(1990) cost of measures16,000
12,000
8,000
4,000
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
AM
£/y
↓
↑
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• Cost compared to GDP: - 0.76% →
• Does this low proportion mean the economy can “afford” the investment?
• What side effects across the economy might result from systemic interaction?
Cost of measures compared to GDP
Measures cost as proportion of GDP0.02
0.015
0.01
0.005
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
↑
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GDP
Another part of the 4see model
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33 Supply and Use Tables for deriving GDP
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Output Expenditure ↓ ↓
GDP from production by three larger economic sectors (2008)
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GDP(output) GDP(expenditure) ↓ ↓ ↓
GDP from production by three larger economic sectors (2008)
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Sector dependency (intermediate consumption) ↓
GDP from production by three larger economic sectors (2008)
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Destination of final demand ↓
GDP from production by three larger economic sectors (2008)
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Investment maintains and grows assets ↓
GDP from production by three larger economic sectors (2008)
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Sector inputs: fuels, electricity, jobs ↓
Inputs to the economy
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One sector alone: service sector
Service sector
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Economic sector: stocks-and-flows, process flows
Service sector stocks-and-flows and process flows
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Measures increase investment proportion of GDP
GDP expenditure components over time
↓
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Side effects of measures
Systemic consequences suggested by the 4see model
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44 Unemployment
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Unemployment
• Increased by 0.4 percentage points →
• 150,000 more unemployed
• Results from differing jobs intensity of goods and services
Growth
• Annual growth peaked at 4% in the past →
• Scenario here has growth of about 1.8% →
Economic growth and unemployment
Growth of GDP per year0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
per y
Unemployment rate (%)12
9
6
3
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
perc
ent
↑
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• Oil refineries - historical constant capacity - so constant demand for crude - and constant output
• Therefore, - as less petroleum products are
used, - more petroleum products exported
• Trade in fuel: derive price from actual trading costs (from the “Pink Book”) →
• Reference price to basket of 27 economies using REER (Real Equivalent Exchange Rate)
Trading price of fuels with respect to a basket of currencies
Crude oil price12
9
6
3
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
FM£/
PJ
Petroleum products price12
9
6
3
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
FM£/
PJ
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• Imports of goods (less fuel) increased (lower level on chart of net exports) →
• Cost increase of M£4,000/y (at 1990 prices)
• Imports of fuel decreased (higher level on chart of net exports) →
• Cost reduction by M£6,000/y (at 1990 prices)
Changes in trade
Fuel net exports14,000
0
-14,000
-28,000
-42,0001990 2000 2010 2020 2030
EM£/
y
Goods (less fuel) net exports0
-30,000
-60,000
-90,000
-120,0001990 2002 2014 2026
EM£/
y↓
↑
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• Effect on CO2 emissions compared to BAU (reference case)
• Reduction by 40 MtCO2/y in 2030 →
• Implementation of low-carbon measures for other parts of economy not considered in this scenario
CO2 emissions
Total CO2 emissions600
450
300
150
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
MtC
O2/
y
↓
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Final comments
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Generation:
• Biomass electricity
• Bioenergy boilers
• Solar thermal hot water
• PV (photovoltaics)
• CCS (carbon capture and sequestration)
• CSP (concentrator solar power) electricity transmitted from North Africa
Consumption:
• Efficiency in workspace, warehouse and retail
• Aviation efficiencies
• Passiv haus new housing
• Double glazing
• Loft insulation
• Cavity wall insulation
• Solid wall insulation
• Heat pumps
• LED lighting
Other measures in the 4see model
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• GDP analysis blind to ownership within economy
• If full cost of measures were put onto use of petroleum products then..
• ..about 20p per litre (at current prices) →
Possible payment system
Measures cost per litre of fuel0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
£cur
r/litr
e
↑
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• 1,300 CNG refuelling stations
• 3.5GW increase in onshore and 17GW in offshore wind
• Unemployment up 150,000
• Fuel imports down M£1,100/y (1990£)
• Goods imports up M£600/y (1990£)
• CO2 emissions reduction 40MtCO2/y
• Cost 0.7% GDP as 20p/litre on fuel
• Petroleum products 22% reduction in 2030: - 2% from biofuels - 3% from efficiency of cars - 4% from efficiency of trucks - 3% from plug-in hybrid or range-
extended EV - 9% from CNG fuelled
Scenario II
Petroleum products for transport2,400
1,800
1,200
600
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
PJ/y
↓
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Observations from applying the 4see model to reduce petroleum products use by transportation
• Main pet-prod users: cars, HGVs, LGVs, aviation • Note trends in vehicle ownership and driving behaviour • Apply a combination of technology and fuels • The 4see model can calculate marginal costs to the economy • A shift from final consumption (of GDP) to investment might
increase unemployment • Comparing changes in value of imported fuel to imported goods
could show a benefit • This scenario is a starting point for examing the system
interactions and sensitivies of these issues
Conclusions
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55 Supply Table
Supply Table
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56 Use Table
Use Table
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57 Factor incomes
Factor incomes
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58 Final demand
Final demand