peak oil by dušan doliak. are we running out of oil? how do we know? why should we care? what...
TRANSCRIPT
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Peak oilBy Dušan Doliak
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Are we running out of oil?
How do we know?
Why should we care?
What next—what can we do?
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“We’re in the midst of a once-in-a-lifetime set of economic conditions. [This] is not [temporary] recession. Rather, the economy is resetting to a lower level of business and consumer spending ...”
Steven BallmerChairman, Microsoft Corp.
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Oil originates from the decomposition of microorganisms that got buried under geologic formations in the sea millions of years ago.
In some cases the sea retreated, which explains why oil is also found on land.
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Before the first oil well was dug in Pennsylvania in 1859 Mother Nature had made about two trillion barrels of oil and scattered it unevenly around the world.
By 2004 we’ve used up about 0.9 trillion. In other words we’re near the half-way point.
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Peak Oil Discoverer: Dr. King HubbertShell Oil Geologist/ Petroleum Scientist
1956 – predicted 1970 as U.S. Peak Oil year
Came as predicted
1903-1989
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ASPO: Association for the Study of Peak OilEuropean scientists & oil geologists from 12 countries
Formed to address world leaders lack of concern for peak oil
ASPO meeting 2003 May 28, Paris, France
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ASPO View
Note plateau of conventional oil and U.S. PeakHeavy, deepwater, polar oil very expensive
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Global Oil Discoveries
ExxonMobil 2003
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Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management
Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader (commissioned by US Department of Energy, February 2005)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.
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A second coal study…
From “The Future of Coal” report to the European Commission from the Institute for Energy (in draft)
“[T]he world could run out of economically recoverable … reserves of coal much earlier than widely anticipated.”
“The amount of actual recoverable coal is … less than the widely published estimates of reserves.”
“[C]oal might not be so abundant, widely available and reliable as an energy source in the future.”
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pokles
produkcie
ropy v UK
77%-ný rast dovozu v roku 2011
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POKLES PRODUKCIE ROPY V SEVERNOM MORI-48%-NÝ POKLESEXPORTUV ROKU 2011
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Ročná globálna spotreba ropy je 1 kubická míľa.Jej nahradenie by vyžadovalo:
200 Three Gorges priehrad
2,600 jadrových elektrární 5,200 uhoľných elektrární 1,642,500 veterných turbín 4,562,500,000 solárnych panelov
V podmienkach finančnej krízy ???
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