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Production Cost Model (PCM) Data Work Group

(PDWG)2017-18 Work Plan

WECC, RAC, DS Committee[August 14, 2017]

Revision History

Date Version Description Author/Editor

08/15/2017 1.0 First Draft Jamie Austin

J. Austin “Draft” PDWG Work Plan 2017-2018 August 14, 2017

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Table of Contents

Introduction................................................................................................................................................3

Primary Responsibilities of the PDWG:..................................................................................................4

Scope of Work.............................................................................................................................................5


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IntroductionThe Production Cost Model (PCM) Data Work Group (PDWG) is one of the three organized working groups of the Data Subcommittee (DS), under the Reliability Assessment Committee (RAC). PDWG is responsible for (i) the development of PCM data not otherwise originating with the regional planning groups, and (ii) verification of PCM data. This data is intended to be used to support reliability assessments, the Anchor Data Set (ADS) and other production cost models as needed by WECC stakeholders.

Beginning in 2006, and until its dissolution in mid-2017,the DWG under TEPPC was had has been instrumental in enhancing the quality of the PCM database since 2006. The DWG useduses publicly available information to populate the database. This information was is a collection of data collected by WECC, WECC committees and task forces, as well as by outside entities. PDWG is will be taking on these responsibilities under the RAC DS.

The PCM database describes information used to model the dispatch of an interconnected the Western Interconnection Bulk Electric System, such as the Western Interconnection. Studies based on the PCMTEPPC database use generator location, load allocation across buses, transmission topology information, among other things, from the interconnected network to model the interconnected networkpower flow case. facilitate working with the input data and study results, covering transmission systems and equipment and how they are interconnected (including the power flow network and generator bus mapping). This modeling information describes how the hardware in the system behaves given certain system circumstances.

Power flow loads just cover a single instant-in-timehour, (e.g., a nominallypseudo-coincident summer peak hour). PDWG, in collaboration with the regional planning groups, will use the start with the L&R monthly peak and energy forecasts provided in the L&R submittals to WECC, in combination with , determines what hourly load profiles to use from FERC 714 data, to develop 8760-hour load forecasts for the different load regions modeled in the PCM. and breaks down the monthly data to the bus, Area loads are distributed to the bus level through the use of Ubus-level the distribution of load factors in the factor from the WECC\ADS power flow “seed case,” the hourly loads for each load region modeled in the PCM will be distributed to the individual load buses within those regions. After all is assembled, The PDWG will validates the bus-level hourly forecast to identify and address any make sure all anomalies. are fixed… tThis is one of the examples of how PDWG “develops” data that will be used in for the PCM hourly dispatch.

Consistent with the TEPPC Common Case, the ADS database will continue to be in public domain. ConsistentlyhenceAccordingly, data development covers assumptions and public data used to create needed proxy data that replaces unattainable, sensitive and confidential data, covering: Hheat Rrate Ccurves, Pplant Rramp rates (-up and Ramp-down), startup costs, Forced Outage Rates (FOR), planned Mmaintenance periods, forecast Ffuel Pprices, hourly energy shapes (loads, for energy efficiency (EE) programs, for additional achievable energy efficiency (AAEE), AEE, distributed generation (DG), Wwind resources, Ssolar resources, Hrun-of-river hydro resources), etc. Entities that have some of this data


GLD, 09/18/17,

Without further clarification, I am concerned about what “development” means in this statement. The planning regions will provide power flow data through the MOD32 process and PCM data through an as yet undefined process; both of which go into the ADS. It is the planning region’s responsibility to ensure that the power flow and PCM data that is provided to WECC are consistent with their regional plans; no alternation of that data is allowed before going into the ADS.

GLD, 09/18/17,

You can ignore the following redlines. I was attempting to clarify the thoughts.

Strack, Jan, 09/27/17,

Added some language to, hopefully, bridge the gap between Gary and Jamie.

Jamie Austin, 09/19/17,

The planning regions will provide the topology (power flow data as you describe), however, “development” is the right word to use and it covers data that constitute the hourly dispatch as specified later in this document.

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may consider the data to be commercially sensitive Such data is or otherwise confidential. and it is not shared by entities as it competitive information.

This Work Plan is intended to provide more details on how and what will be covered by PDWG.

Use of the A PCM simulation dataset produces economic dispatch information. The economic dispatch is designed to serve all modeled loads through the dispatch of generation based on variable operating costs and is subject to generator operating parameters and transmission system constraints. Accordingly, the PCM and therefore model information must also include transmission system operating parameters (impedances and facility ratings), load forecasts, fuel prices, and generator operating parameters.

The PDWG is responsible for the collection, development of the proxy data to replace what is deemed confidential, for the development of PCM data not otherwise originating with the regional planning groups and for the verification of this dataPCM all data for covering the entire WECC interconnection. However, PDWG is nottThe regional planning groups regions are responsible for the collection, development and verification of information for potential future infrastructure additions, such as incremental transmission additions, and the mapping of future resources to specific buses, and matching individual generators in the ADS power flow “seed case” to the corresponding generator names in the starting point PCM. The regional planning groups are further responsible for ensuring information developed and/or used by the regional planning groups in their regional plans is provided to WECC through the regional planning groups’ respective data submitters.

The method Methodology for uploading transmission topology, generator location data, bus-level load distributions, and other data ultimately necessary to export an hour from the ADS PCM for purposes of creating an ADS power flow/stability case, dating the data requires using the “round trip” process (integral to building the ADS). ; tThis entails developing and ensuring interoperability of the network elements between the power flow “seed case” and the starting point PCM case. The “ADS 2028” database will be initiated using the ADS 2026 Seed Cases (power flow and PCM) that allows for capturing the regional planning groups’ WPR transmission plans and generator mapping/name matching. The and developed through the WECC base case development process will be used by the regional planning groups and their respective data submitters to develop and submit to WECC, the data necessary for WECC to create a year 2028 .power flow “seed case.” WECC will use the year 2028 power flow “seed case” to import transmission topology, generator location data, bus-level load distributions, and other data into the 2026 PCM in order to create the draft ADS 2028 PCM.

Since organizations (e.g., the Rregional planning groups) may have different study years and different forecasts [“forecasts” of what?], the following should be used to guide development of are needed for the datasets:

Data should be collected in modular blocks reflecting different assumptions to meet different needs

The databases must provide an accurate representation of the existing grid Accurate data is critical to model validation and development of model parameters Enables back cast


GLD, 09/18/17,

And the 2026 PCM case


My attempt to reconcile comments by Jamie and Gary.

GLD, 09/18/17,

Without further clarification, I am concerned about what “development” means in this statement. The planning regions will provide power flow data through the MOD32 process and PCM data through an as yet undefined process; both of which go into the ADS. It is the planning region’s responsibility to ensure that the power flow and PCM data that is provided to WECC are consistent with their regional plans; no alternation of that data is allowed before going into the ADS.


The planning regions are responsible for providing the topology and for mapping the resources. PDWG is responsible for the rest.

GLD, 09/18/17,

The PDWG is not responsible for development of PCM data for the ADS; the planning regions are responsible for that. The PDWG is responsible for the collection and verification of this data. The JPTRTF proposal accepted by the WECC Board notes this many times (ex. See sections 11, 11.3, Appendix B1, etc.)

Jamie Austin [2], 10/03/17,

First sentence was added to address Fred’s concer.


Fred Heutte suggested:…As you have often noted, the TEPPC (now ADS) data is, in general, public data. I think it might be useful to state this in the work plan and that non-public data will be limited to where it is mandated (e.g. CEII) or public sources are not feasible.

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It should be easy to determine what changes to the existing grid were made to arrive at Aany future view of the grid should be able to show what specific changes are made from the existing grid

The production cost model simulates the system across all hours of a year and must. The Sstatus of equipment and settings in the PCM may be different from the imported power flow case, but the PCM model must have the same topology as the power flow “seed case”base cases.

The ADS process calls for on a fundamental change and, closer coordination among of the regional planning groups regions and their respective WECC the Data Submitters. Major benefits to cooperative development include:

Regional planning groups to support data development (e.g., resource mapping/name matching) Regional planning groups to provide feedback on their respective systems (e.g., topology and

related data, review L&R balance, imports\exports, etc.) Regional planning groups to provide feedback on dispatch (e.g., plant performance, path flows,

etc.)Primary Responsibilities of the PDWG:

To the extent not otherwise originating with the regional planning groups Ccollect and verify the existing infrastructure information, supplemental to the SDWG collection process, for

o Generators

Incremental additions: technology definition, work with the regional planning groups regions on generator mapping/name matching information

Plant retirements; latest information from State Government Agencies, National Labs, Regions, etc.

To the extent not otherwise originating with the regional planning groups, Ccollect and verify the following modeling information

o Generator operating parameters, unit commitment information (e.g., Pmax, Pmin, ramp rates, startup costs, etc.)

o Transmission operating parameters - Nomogram definitions, Path Ratings

o Loads, detailed information on elements typically netted from Loads: EE, DG, Small Hydro, Pumps, SS, etc.

Collect and verify forward-looking information on

o Fuel price assumptions

o Emissions prices

o Wheeling costs

Assist in the development of energy data and assumption (e.g., deciding on the coincident year for energy profiles)



After providing the additional details, Stephanie has agreed these are not duplicative tasks by SDWG.

Imamovic, Stephanie, 08/31/17,

Similar comment. This sounds like the SDWG collection of the system data. If this is different, can you provide some more detail? Otherwise, can this be deleted?


Won’t the transmission parameters come from regional planning groups through their respective WECC data submitters (i.e., through the 2028 power flow seed case)?


I’m confused. Won’t plant retirements come from regional planning groups through their respective WECC data submitters (i.e., the 2028 power flow seed case)?


I’m confused. Won’t incremental generator additions come from regional planning groups through their respective WECC data submitters (i.e., the 2028 power flow seed case)?

GLD, 09/18/17,

PDWG responsibilities for the ADS and for WECC (presume common case will remain) are not the same. This should be pointed out in the work plan. For the ADS, responsibilities are for collection and validation only. The planning regions are responsible for developing their PCM data through their regional processes. The PDWG will be responsible for developing the common case. The planning regions through their involvement with the RAC entities may agree to certain alignments in data development, but that has to be done through WECC processes where consensus between the planning regions and other WECC stakeholders can be reached.

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o Load profiles (based on WECC member reporting, regions reporting)

o RPS Resources (e.g., wind and solar hourly profiles)

o DER, EE &DSM hourly profiles

Assist in the validation process of newly created ADS case studies.

Maintain and improve “round trip” capabilities between power flow base case and PCM.

[I understand that the PDWG will be focused on ADS-related activities initially. However, I think we should at least include a short statement in this document explaining that in addition to supporting development of the PCM component of the ADS, the PDWG will be responsible for the production cost modeling elements of the RAC Studies Subcommittee’s (StS’s) annual study program. We should expect that the StS’s annual study program will include a number of PCM cases that will use the final ADS PCM as the “starting point” to create different PCM cases (having different data and/or modeling assumptions) that explore issues of importance to WECC and its stakeholders.]

In addition to supporting development of the PCM components of the ADS, the PDWG will coordinate with other RAC committees as follows:

1. Collaborate on developing the data needed to support StS’s annual study program (e.g., develop other than average conditions data that constitutes the ADS dataset). PDWG will "actively coordinate with the Studies Subcommittee and Scenario Development Subcommittee to assist with the development of studies and scenarios".

2. Collaborate with other RAC work groups to ensure that WECC collects the data necessary to support the production cost model.

a. Develop processes to combine the data of the Interconnection-wide case created by the SDWG and the production cost data developed by PDWG, and to support development of the ADS.

b. Coordinate with other WECC Committees to develop consistent assumptions that lead to consistent data; ensure interchangeability of data between the power flow and PCM databases; and ensure that there is consistent data representation in both power flow and PCM software programs.

c. Provide a forum for discussing issues related to PCM data collection.



Fred Heutte added comment:It might be good to add a sentence or two stating that PDWG's intention is to produce and update consistent documentation on its work both to keep current efforts aligned and to provide input to improve the ADS and study programs going forward.


Fred Heutte commented:I agree with Jan and based on my experience with the SPSG, it's not just a passive responsibility but that the Studies Subcommittee and Scenario Development Subcommittee should include the Data Subcommittee and particularly PDWG in the development of their work so that we don't end up with unrealistic assumptions (this was a problem more than once with the SPSG).Maybe the way to do this is add a little language saying the PDWG will "actively coordinate with the Studies Subcommittee and Scenario Development Subcommittee to assist with the development of studies and scenarios," or something like that.* It might be good to add a sentence or two stating that PDWG's intention is to produce and update consistent documentation on its work both to keep current efforts aligned and to provide input to improve the ADS and study programs going forward.

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Scope of WorkPDWG works closely with other RAC work groups in study case preparation and analysis. The table below defines the scope of work for the PDWG during calendar year 2017.

2017 PDWG Scope of Work

Implemented Pending

Loads

Compare regional forecasts to the LRS forecast (i.e., CEC, COLGRID, NTTG, CAISO, WestConnect)

Update load shapes for the 2026 common case and sensitivity cases. (PDWG will coordinate this effort with the PMWG and Hydro Modeling Task Force HMTF).

Scenario Studies and Sensitivities Address the need to acquire load data for

running sensitivities. Back out California hydro pumps from loads;

collect corresponding load shapes. Confirm using multiple seasons “shift

factors”, instead of just one with one season power flow case.

Should we use the new LRS data collected in March 2017?

The 2026CC – V1.7 has LRS loads submitted in March, 2015 (loads developed in 2014, making the forecast 3 – years old)

o Work with LBNL to validate DSM and Efficiency programs data.

Reinstate Station Service loads consistent with power flow modeling to address “round-trip” needs; adjust Pmax to align with values used thermal generator heat rate values.

Revisit using Net Qualifying Capacity (NQC) values for California plants; make consistent with values used in power flow

o Pmax: NQC used for California plants already nets the SS loads.

Negative load should not be included in the net area load for reporting. For all practical purposes it’s a generator and should have a separate reporting field or be modeled as a generator

BTM – PV modeled in 2026CC: o Revisit whether the “spill box” should be

checked. (To make BTM – PV “must run,” the “spill box” should be unchecked.)

o Revisit variable O&M price. (-$100/MWh does not seem appropriate.)

o Revisit “dispatch price.” (-$100/MWh does not seem appropriate.)

o Uses the same allocation to busses as area load distribution. This ignores what was approved by TAS: (primary underlying cause for “dumped energy”)

o Model on the supply using the NREL



Why is the age of the load forecast in the 2026 CC relevant? I thought the plan was to use the most recent L&R submittals to WECC to set the monthly energy and peak loads for the draft 2028 ADS PCM?


Isn’t the WECC Loads & Resources Subcommittee (“LRS”) defunct?


Not clear what these “shift factors” are. Needs explanation.


Where can WECC stakeholders find this comparison?

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Implemented Pending

hourly shapes; GridView can model a single hourly shape that is already used for native load.

o The criteria to model BTM-PV on the supply side include placing generators on large load busses, not to exceed 50% of the native load.

Resources

Plant retirement –

Validate LRS plant retirement data, update as needed.

Fossil Plants –

Review and update key generator parameters for coal, combined cycle, and nuclear plants. The following generator parameters will be reviewed and updated: Estimate the additional maintenance cost incurred when traditionally base loaded units are cycled to integrate load and variable resources.

Determine useful metrics for observing the movement in the dispatch (ramping/cycling) of a set of units in the dataset. This metric will be used to compare how the movement in the dispatch of a set of generators changes between scenarios.

Emissions costs

Data for storage technology and associated costs

Coordinate work with the Modeling Work Group (MWG) and StWG to better integrate the variable resources in the 2026 scenarios.

Revisit assumptions for: startup costs (fixed O&M costs, variable O&M costs), ramp rates, and minimum up/down times.

Plant Maintenance Schedule –

About a 1/3 of the schedule maintenance is during the fall while historically thermal maintenance is between: Apr 1-16 through late Jun to after Jul.

Islanded generation –

100 + generator are connected to a branch that is “Open”

The staff implemented resource (generator) bus mapping/name matching supplied by three of the four regions, leaving out edits

Unmapped/unmatched generators were temporarily placed on “swing buses”, causing fictitious congestion on export and/ or dumped



Not clear about this. Won’t resource retirement information come into the ADS through the upload of the 2028 power flow seed case?

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Implemented Pending

submitted by CAISO energy. This needs to be rectified for the Anchor Case (round-trip).

Generator Operating Parameters –

Use the CEMS, GADS, and other publicly available data sources to improve the generator operating parameters in the 2026 scenarios.

Min Capacity Unit Capacity Segments Heat Rates Up/Down time Ramp up/down rate Startup costs Scheduled Maintenance

Plant Forced Outages (FOR) and Plant Maintenance Schedule –

Implement the newly developed FOR and Maintenance data for Coal Plants in the 2026CC

Wind and Solar Data – 2024 CC profiles Wind Data –

Implement the newly developed wind profiles by PNNL, using the NREL 2009 data.

Revisit variable O&M price. (There is reason to believe that O&M costs vary materially with hours of operation. $0/MWh would therefore not be appropriate.)

Revisit “dispatch price.” (Existing generators, and planned generators with near-term in-service dates, are eligible for Production Tax Credits. Accordingly it seems logical to model opportunity costs for these generators. A $0/MWh dispatch price seems, therefore, to be inappropriate for these generators. Some level of a negative dispatch price would reflect the opportunity costs associated with curtailing these resources.)

Solar Data –

Solar resources mapping/name matching to bus


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Implemented Pending

has to be consistent with the ISO definition; this is critical for the success of ADS and the implementation of “round trip”.

We’ve been struggling with developing the new NREL solar profiles for California solar. Issues:

o The CPUC RPS calculator assigns new generic resources by CREZ, and does not sort them to the busbar/ geographic level. That role is handed off to the CAISO.

o The CAISO is unable to reveal the location assumptions for confidentiality/legal reasons.

o The CEC assisted by mapping/name matching most of existing plants but could not process future plants as they are given generic names in the 2026CC (many of the generic names in the case come from the 2024CC and do not line up with new generic names in the CPUC RPS calculator – version 6.2)

For geo-coordinates beyond existing/ contracted resources, it looks like we might need to decide on a new methodology. [Why?]

The other complexity is knowing how much solar to add? There has been NO “gap analysis” done for the 2026CC; E3 conducted a “resource adequacy analysis” which is not the same. E3 over builds to allow for curtailment and it appears 100% of the over builds is solar. This begs the question: how much RPS do we currently have 40%, 50% or 75%?

Hydro Data –

Work with the HMTF to collect “new” hydro data that matches “new” load shapes (e.g., if a decision is made to use 2009 load shapes; hourly hydro will be needed for year 2009).

Determine if additional hydro data is needed for running sensitivities?

Assist the HMTF on collecting data for modeling hydro dynamically.



Not understanding this issue. The 2028 power flow seed case uploaded into the PCM should contain enough renewable resources to satisfy any RPS “gap.”


Not understanding this issue. The 2028 power flow seed case uploaded into the PCM will connect all RPS resources to a bus. What location information, then, is the CAISO unable to provide?

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Implemented Pending

Hydro Monthly Energy Hydro – min cap Hydro – fixed hour shape

Fuel Prices

Update Fuel Prices

Inflation Rate

Transmission

Collect data for Transmission Forced Outages. Work with StWG and SDWG committees to mitigate long term issues that have been perpetuated with the process of building power flow cases at WECC; no two power flow cases have same bus numbers for all existing generators

Power flow cases for different seasons or other conditions must be consistent

The topology in the power flow and production cost datasets must be identical, or a definitive mapping must be available

Individual generators in the power flow may be represented as composite plants in the production cost for efficiency or proper dispatch

Wheeling costs

Emissions

Collect Emission data


Implemented Pending

“Round Trip Process”



What group is SMWG? Is this the appropriate acronym?

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Implemented Pending

Work with WECC staff and RAC committees on a data editing process that is friendly to the “Round Trip”. Example:

Resource and Transmission changes needs to be initiated in the power flow. Iterate using the round trip to assure maintaining consistent definition (including reactive) in both models.

o PCM stores the initial import reactive dentition and it uses it for the one hour exports.

Coincident Energies Year

(needed for the coincident dispatch of the Wester Interconnect)

Select a coincident Energies Year

Loads

Should we use the new LRS data collected in March 2017, or that collected in 2018?

o Work with LBNL to validate DSM’ and Efficiency programs’ data.

Develop hourly Energy Shapeso Loadso EEo DSM

Work with SDWG and other RAC committees to close the gap on the representation of:

o Composite Load Modelo Station Service (SS) loadso Multi-Season Load Modelso EEo DGo Consistent Criteria for modeling BTM-PV

Resources

Fossil Plants –

Review and update key generator parameters for



“Consistent” with what?


Not sure what this is. If we are using L&R data provided to WECC by data submitters, then we have monthly peaks and energy by load area. Wouldn’t this address “multi-season” loads?

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Implemented Pending

coal, combined cycle, and nuclear plants. The following generator parameters will be reviewed and updated: Estimate the additional maintenance cost incurred when traditionally base loaded units are cycled to integrate load and variable resources.

Revisit “must-run” status of nuclear plants (does it make sense to assume nuclear plants will run when market clearing prices are below variable operating costs of a nuclear plant for extended time periods – e.g., during the spring months?)

Determine useful metrics for observing the movement in the dispatch (ramping/cycling) of a set of units in the dataset. This metric will be used to compare how the movement in the dispatch of a set of generators changes between scenarios.

Emissions costs

Data for storage technology and associated costs

Coordinate work with the PCM Modeling Work Group (PMWG) and StWG to better integrate the variable resources in the 2026 scenarios.

Geothermal Plants –

Revisit “must-run” status for these generators. (Assuming O&M costs for geothermal units vary materially with hours of operation, there may be time periods of the year (e.g., spring) when it is economical to shut-down these units.)

Revisit variable O&M price for these units. (There is reason to believe that O&M costs vary materially by the hours of operation for these units.)

Revisit start-up costs for these units. (It may be especially costly to shut-down and restart



What group is StWG? Is this the appropriate acronym?

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Implemented Pending

some geothermal units.)

Review and update Resource mapping to account for incremental changes since the ADS Seed Case

Generator Operating Parameters –

Use the CEMS, GADS, and other publicly available data sources to improve the generator operating parameters in the 2026 scenarios.

Min Capacity Unit Capacity Segments Heat Rates Up/Down time Ramp up/down rate Startup costs Scheduled MaintenanceWind and Solar Data – Use ADS Seed Case profiles

Fine tune to cover incremental changes to draft 2028 ADS associated with 2028 L&R submissions

Hydro Data –

Work with the HMTF to collect “new” hydro data that matches “new” load shapes (e.g., if a decision is made to use other than the 2009 load shapes; hourly hydro will be needed).

Hydro Monthly Energy Hydro – min cap Hydro – fixed hour shape

Fuel Prices

Update Fuel Prices Inflation Rate

Transmission



This needs more detail. My understanding is that this will be done in collaboration with the regional planning groups.


Not clear what “incremental changes” are being contemplated.

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Implemented Pending

Import the WPR latest updates

Implement Updates from the WPR Work with SMWG and SDWG committees to

mitigate long term issues that have been perpetuated with the process of building power flow cases at WECC; no two power flow cases have same bus numbers for all existing generators

Power flow cases for different seasons or other conditions must be consistent

The topology in the power flow and production cost datasets must be identical, or a definitive mapping must be available

Individual generators in the power flow may be represented as composite plants in the production cost for efficiency or proper dispatch

Wheeling Costs Update

Emission Costs Update



What group is SMWG? Is this the appropriate acronym?

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