semiconductor & display trends - defense logistics … & display trends november 2016...
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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Semiconductor & Display Trends
November 2016
Technology
Vice President & Chief Analyst
+1 (310) 524-4083
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Electronics & semiconductorforecast outlook
The Start of a New Cycle
2
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Electronics market – Growth goes negative for 2nd time in 14 years
3
• Five year CAGR = 2.2%
• Industrial Electronics leads growth followed by Automotive, Consumer & Wired Comm
• Industrial Electronics passed Data Processing as largest market in 2012; Wireless followedin 2013
10.3%
7.9% 8.3%
6.0%
2.6%
-8.4%
13.3%
7.4%
3.6% 4.0% 4.1%
1.9%
-0.3%
2.7%3.3%
2.2%3.0%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year-
on-Y
ear
Gro
wth
Global Electronic Systems Revenue2015 WW Revenue = $2.08 T
Source – IHS Application Market Forecast Q3 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Electronics growth weighed down by Wireless & Data Processing
4
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
WW
Ma
rke
t C
AG
R F
ore
ca
st
’15 t
o ‘2
0
2016 Growth
Wireless
Automotive
Industrial
Consumer Wired
Data
Processing
Source – IHS Application Market Forecast Q3 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Quarterly semiconductor forecast
5
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Q1
'08
Q2
'08
Q3
'08
Q4
'08
Q1
'09
Q2
'09
Q3
'09
Q4
'09
Q1
'10
Q2
'10
Q3
'10
Q4
'10
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
'15
Q1
'16
Q2
'16
Q3
'16
Q4
'16
Q1
'17
Q2
'17
Q3
'17
Q4
'17
Q2 & Q3 2016 surge to solid growth; Boost full year to only -1.1% decline
Source – IHS Application Market Forecast Q3 2016
Quarter-to-Quarter Growth
Supply ChainSeizes
‘Snap Back’More Than Anticipated
Alignment with Weak Electronics
Seasonality
Q2 Becomes New Peak
Weak 2015 Start
WeaknessContinues
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Annual semiconductor outlook
6
23.6%
4.1%
10.3%
3.9%
-5.1%
-10.9%
34.1%
1.3%
-2.5%
6.4%8.3%
-2.0%-1.1%
4.8% 5.1% 4.3% 4.0%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year-
on-Y
ear
Gro
wth
• Semiconductor market growth outlook – Next four years challenging
• June 2016 begins tenth semiconductor industry cycle– mid-single digit growth
• Long-term outlook sees five-year CAGR of only 3.4%
Global Semiconductor Revenue
2015 Revenue = $347.1B
Source – IHS Application Market Forecast Q3 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Historical 12 month moving average
7
Source – WSTS
PC Multimedia PC WWW Mobile Phone /
Mobile PC
GUI PCConsumer
Electronics
Economy
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
June 2016 – Start of the tenth semiconductor cycleMost cycles last roughly four years
8
Source – WSTS
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
3/12 and 12/12 moving averages
9
Source – IHS Application Market Forecast Q3 2016
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
Ma
r-03
Aug
-03
Ja
n-0
4
Ju
n-0
4
Nov-0
4
Apr-
05
Sep
-05
Fe
b-0
6
Ju
l-0
6
Dec-0
6
Ma
y-0
7
Oct-
07
Ma
r-08
Aug
-08
Ja
n-0
9
Ju
n-0
9
Nov-0
9
Apr-
10
Sep
-10
Fe
b-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
y-1
2
Oct-
12
Ma
r-13
Aug
-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Nov-1
4
Apr-
15
Sep
-15
Fe
b-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Dec-1
6
Ma
y-1
7
Oct-
17
IHS 12/12 Average IHS 3/12 Average
IHS 12/12 Average Fcst IHS 3/12 Average Fcst
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
WW
Ma
rke
t C
AG
R F
ore
ca
st
’15 t
o ‘2
0
2016 Growth
Wireless
Automotive
Industrial
Consumer
Wired
Data
Processing
New semiconductor growth drivers for next 5 years
10
Source – IHS Application Market Forecast Q3 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Historic alignment between economy and electronics Semiconductor growth profile continues to predict accurately
11
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Real
GD
P G
ro
wth
Ele
ctr
on
ic E
qu
ipm
en
t an
d S
em
ico
nd
ucto
r R
ev
en
ue G
row
th
Electronic Equipment OEM Factory Revenue Semiconductor Revenue WW Real GDP
Source – IHS Global Insight and IHS Technology
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Semiconductor manufacturing trends
12
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Capital expenditure provide verification for long-term growth opportunities as well as a technology roadmap
• Expenditures supporting Logic (Foundry) and Memory continue tofuel long-term industry revenue growth
CapEx by Technology 2010 - 2019
13
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
CapEx by Company 2015 & 2016
2016 capital expenditure forecast by company
• Expenditures for capital are focused on next generation technologyand expansions in China
> Samsung, TSMC, Intel, Globalfoundries, UMC and SMIC are all focused onadding capacity in China
14
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Technology migrations drive 2nd half revenue
• Foundry revenue is driven by demand for advancedtechnology supporting Handsets, Graphics and computing
> 28 nanometer – Apple, MediaTek, Qualcomm, Xilinx, Nvidia, AMD,Huawei, HiSilicon, Spreadtrum
> 20 nanometer – Apple, Qualcomm, Xilinx
> 16/14 nanometer – Apple, Qualcomm, MediaTek, Xilinx, Nvidia, AMD, IBM, HiSilicon, Spreadtrum
> 10 nanometer - Apple, Qualcomm, MediaTek, HiSilicon
> 7 nanometer - Apple, Qualcomm, MediaTek, Xilinx, HiSilicon, Lenovo, IBM, AMD
28 nanometer
20 nanometer
16 / 14 nanometer
10 nanometer
7 nanometer
2011 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
15
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USA & Canada26.6%
European Union22.1%Emerging
Europe5.0%
Rest of Asia-
Pacific17.7%
China14.7%
Latin America
7.7%
Middle East3.2%
Africa3.0%
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS2015 Total = $73.3 T
China Has Become a Global Economic Powerhouse
16
China has the largest economy outside of the US and is a leader in its region
Share of World GDP, Nominal (2015)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Ch
ina
Sh
are
of
Wo
rld
wid
e
GDP, Nominal
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
Top Ten Countries by GDP, Nominal
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Workforce, infrastructure &technology have driven high-quality / low-cost productioncenters and China dominance ofelectronics production
Foxconn is the modern driver of the“company town / city” in China
Other countries such as the UShave lost critical skills/abilitiesto compete in the world ofmanufacturing in many keysectors
China Dominates Production of Electronics:Local markets growing to complement exports
17
Consumer and Mobile Electronics Production Revolve around China
Production Trends
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
To
tal M
ark
et
Wir
ele
ss
Co
mm
un
icati
on
s
Co
nsu
me
rE
lectr
on
ics
Da
ta P
roces
sin
g
Au
tom
oti
ve
Ele
ctr
on
ics
Wir
ed
Co
mm
un
icati
on
s
Ind
ustr
ial
Ele
ctr
on
ics
Ch
ina
Sh
are
of
Wo
rld
wid
e P
rod
uc
tio
n -
2015
Percent
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
China’s Share of WW Production
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
China – Development of a domestic supply chain
• Development of a semiconductor industry began with Project909 in 2000
> Semiconductor companies that were state owned were privatized
> HHNEC, SGNEC, ASMC were the initial companies founded as JV’swith multinational companies
• Technology development was limited due to US and Taiwanlaws
• SMIC became the first company to successfully developadvanced technology using 300mm wafers
> SMIC formed a JV with Elpida Memory in order to manufactureDRAM
• China’s goal: “Made in China Policy 2025”
> 40% self-sufficient by 2020 and 70% self–sufficient by 2025
18
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China – Global challenges facing China
• China is the worlds largest purchaser of semiconductorsaccounting for more than 55% of global consumption
> China is also the worlds largest exporter of electronics systems
• China is aggressively adding capacity in order tomanufacture components to reduce the volume ofsemiconductors imported
• Semiconductor technology manufactured in China’s domesticfabs remains 3 generations the market leaders
> Advanced technology accounts for more than half of China’ssemiconductor imports
19
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Manufacturing expansions in China
• Expansion in Chinese wafer fabs is focused on 300 mm
> Technology deployment targets ranges from n-1 to legacy “Morethan Moore”
Wafer Fab Expansions by Year in China
20
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Chinese wafer capacity expansions will outpace short-term demand
• Global semiconductor industry continues in a slow growth period through 2020and possibly 2022
> Domestic demand must increase substantially in order to fill fab capacitybeyond 2017
Forecasted Capacity Expansions within China and Global Semiconductor Industry Revenue
21
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Displays
22
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Demand Driven By TV Area & New Applications
23
Display Long Term Forecast ( Area Base, Million Square Meters ) 2014 – 2022
© 2016 IHSSource: IHS
172
239
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Others
Office Appliance
Head Mount Display
Smart Watch
Public Display
Plasma TV
OLED TV
Mobile Phone
Mobile PC
LCD TV
Home Appliance
E-Book
Desktop Monitor
Automobile Monitor
CAGR 5%
CAGR 11%
CAGR 4%
CAGR 35%
CAGR 14%
CAGR 145%
CAGR -1%
CAGR 6%
CAGR 72%
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Growth engine: Demand for larger size TV
LCD TV Panel Average Size (inch)
© 2016 IHSSource: IHS
24
• Big size jump within these years : 39.2”@2015, 41.4”@2016, 42”@2017
• 2016 : 4x” segment surpass 3x” segment. 2018: 6x” segment surpass 5%.
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
32”
42”
44”
1” per year.
Average Size move from 32” to
42”
32” stable
40”-45” Mainstream
55” Growth
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Possible restructure/shutdown of fabs in 2016-2017 • Struggling financial issues, low utilization, and low efficiency push panel makers to shut down fabs.
25
Possible fab shutdowns, 2016-2017
Panel
Maker Fab Gen/Glass Size Original Capacity Tech. Utilization now Products Ramp-up year Depreciated Year
Original EOL
Year
Samsung
Display
L6 Gen 5 120K/M a-Si 70-80% Mobile 2003 2009 2018
L7-1 Gen 7 155K/M a-Si 95% 40” TV 2005 2011 2018
AUO
L3C Gen 3.25 60K/M a-Si 35% Mobile 1999 2006 2017
L4A Gen 3.5 25K/M+ 35K/M Touch a-Si 50-60% Mobile, Touch 2001 2008 2017
L3D Gen 3.25 50K/M + 15K/M LTPS a-Si 0% Mobile, Touch 2001 2008 2015/End
L5A Gen 5 50K/M a-Si 60-70% Mobile, NB 2003 2009
L5D Gen 5 75K/M a-Si 50-60% Mobile, NB 2003 2011
Innolux
T0 Gen 4 20K/M a-Si+EPD 50% Mobile 2004 2009 2017
T1 Gen 5 60K/M a-Si 60% Mobile 2004 2010 2018
Fab1 Gen 3.25 70K/M a-Si 60-65% Mobile 1999 2005 2018
Fab2 Gen 3.5 85K/M a-Si 45-50% Mobile 2001 2007 2018
Fab3 Gen 5 145K/M a-Si 85% Mobile, NB 2003 2010
LG Display
P2 Gen 3.25 85K/M a-Si 52% Mobile, NB 1997 2004
P3 Gen 3.5 92K/M a-Si 50% Mobile, NB 2000 2004 2018
P4 Gen 5 150K/M a-Si 65% Mobile, NB 2002 2008 2019
P5 Gen 5 100K/M a-Si 62% Mobile, NB 2002 2007 2018
BOEB1 Gen 5 75K/M a-Si 0% Shift to MEMS 2004 2012 2016
B2 Gen 4 45K/M a-Si Stop Mobile 2008 2016 2016
CPTT2 Gen 3.5 73K/M a-Si <20% Mobile 2001 2007 2018
T1 Gen 3 35K/M a-Si <50% Mobile 1999 2006
Sharp Taki No.2C Gen 3.5 45K/M a-Si <45% Auto, Mobile 2000 2005
Taki CGS B Gen 4 95K/M a-Si, In-Cell <50% Mobile 2003 2010 2018
JDI
Mobara V3
LTPS Gen 4 40K/M LTPS <50% Mobile 2002 2012 2016
STL Higashiura
#1& #2Gen 3.25 36K/M LTPS+OLED <50% Mobile 1999 2007 2017
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Capacity Area Growth vs. Demand
• 1H’16 : Oversupply. 2H’16 : Tightness. The panel price increase in 2H’16 has somehow reflected
the tightness in ’17 and ’18.
• 2017 and 2018 will be tight due to fab restructure and LCD TV area growth. To cope with the
tightness, panel makers might have to pull in new fab construction schedules.
• In reality, the LCD TV demand will be influenced by the panel price increase in 2017-2018.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
LA LCD, AMOLED, AMEPD Demand Y/Y% 6% 14% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5%
TFT Capacity for AM Applications Y/Y% 5% 5% 7% 6% 2% 4% 7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Ye
ar/
Ye
ar
Gro
wth
Rate
s (
%)
Display demand area growth vs. capacity area growth
© 2016 IHSSource: IHS
Oversupply
Inventory carried over
from previous year
New TV size/area demand
Shortage
Tightness
Oversupply
Old fab restructure/shutdown
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
NB and Monitor Panel Price Stabilize due to low supply
27
Notebook Panel vs. Demand (Million Units) Monitor Panel vs. Demand (Million Units)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2015 2016 2016Demand
2017 2017Demand
CEC-Panda Sharp Samsung
Panasonic LG Display InfoVision
HannStar CPT Innolux Corp.
BOE AUO
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2015 2016 2016Demand
2017 2017Demand
CEC-Panda Sharp Samsung
Panasonic LG Display InfoVision
HannStar CPT Innolux Corp.
BOE AUO
165M 170M
162M 172M
180M 139M
134M 137M
131M 134M
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Growth engine: Higher resolution
28
Smartphone, Tablet & Notebook PPI Trend (million units)
© 2015 IHSSource: IHS
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500>600 500-600450-500 400-450350-400 300-350250-300 200-250150-200 100-150
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
300-350 250-300
200-250 150-200
100-150 50-100
0
50
100
150
200
250
350-400 300-350
250-300 200-250
150-200 100-150
50-100
400ppi ↑
500ppi ↑
250ppi ↑150ppi ↑
28
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Virtual Reality - Integrated Display Headset List
29
Model NameFacebook HTC Sony FOVE Starbreeze
Oculus Rift Vive Pre PlayStation VR FOVE VR StarVR
Photos
Start Price $599 $799 $399 $500 TBC
Launch Time Mar’16 Apr’16 Oct’16 Q1’16 TBC (Acer)
Display pieces 2 pcs OLED 2 pcs OLED 2 pcs OLED 1pcs LCD 2 pcs LCD
Display
2 pcs 1080x1200
OLED
90mm (3.54’), 456
ppi
2 pcs 1080x1200 OLED
92mm (3.62’), 447 ppi
2 pcs 960x1080 ,3.x” =
1pics of 5.7” , each
960x1080, 387ppi
1pcs of 5.7”
2560 x 1440 LCD
2pcs of 5.5”
(2160x1440) Total
5120 x 1440 LCD
472 ppi
Refresh Rate 90Hz 90Hz 120Hz 60Hz 90Hz
Image credit: Oculus Image credit: Sony Image credit: FOVEImage credit: HTC Image credit: Starbreeze
29
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Display is the most high-price component in VR device
30
Facebook Oculus Rift Tear-Down cost
Display cost = US$69 , 35% of the
total BOM (Bill of Materials) Cost.
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
AMOLEDs From Emerging to Mainstream
31
Examples of Recent Prototypes and Commercialized AMOLEDs
© 2016 IHSSource: Makers, IHS
LGE 77”
Hisense 65”
Skyworth 65”
SDC 55” Transparent OLED1920x1080, 45% transmittance
SDC 55” Mirror OLED1920x1080, 75% reflectance
LGD 18” RollableSDC Galaxy S6 LG G Watch Apple Watch
12.3” Samsung 2-in-1
OLED for automotive applications
Dual-view curved tiling OLED Dell 30” OLED Monitor
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Technology Trend for Smartphone OLED
32
Vs.Galaxy
SGalaxy
S2GalaxyS2 LTE
GalaxyS2 HD LTE
GalaxyS3
GalaxyS4
GalaxyS5
GalaxyS5 Prime
GalaxyS6
GalaxyS6 Edge
GalaxyS6 Edge+
GalaxyS7
GalaxyS7 Edge
Launching Mar. 2010 Apr. 2011 Sep. 2011 Nov. 2011 May. 2012 Mar.2013 Mar.2014 Jun.2014 Mar.2015 Apr.2015 Aug. 2015 Mar. 2016 Mar. 2016
Diagonal Size 4.0” 4.3” 4.5” 4.65” 4.8” 4.99” 5.1” 5.1” 5.1” 5.1” 5.7” 5.1” 5.5”
TSP On-Cell On-Cell On-Cell On-Cell On-Cell On-Cell On-Cell On-Cell On-Cell P1S A-P1S On-Cell A-P1S
Resolution800 x 480/ WVGA
800 x 480/ WVGA
800 x 480/ WVGA
1280 x 720/ WXGA
1280 x 720/ WXGA
1920x1080/ Full HD
1920 x 1080/ Full HD
2560 x 1440/ Quad HD
2560 x 1440/ Quad HD
2560 x 1440/ Quad HD
2560x1440/ Quad HD
2560 x 1440/ Quad HD
2560 x 1440/ Quad HD
PPI 232 217 207 316 306 441 432 577 577 577 515 577 534
Real PPI 154 217 207 210 204 294 288 385 385 385 342 377 342
Substrate Rigid Rigid Rigid Rigid Rigid Rigid Rigid Rigid Rigid Flexible Flexible Rigid Flexible
Pixel Type Pentile RGB Stripe RGB Stripe Pentile Pentile S-Pentile S-Pentile S-Pentile S-Pentile S-Pentile S-pentile S-Pentile S-Pentile
MicroscopeView
( 4 pixels )
# of Sub pixels 8 12 12 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
History of Galaxy S Series’ AMOLED specification
© 2016 IHSSource: IHS
( Source : IHS Report, ‘OLED Strategy, Technology & Market – 2015’)
3
4
5
6
7
Dia
go
nal S
ize (
In
ch
)
iPhone Galaxy
200
300
400
500
600
Pix
el p
er I
nch
(P
PI)
iPhone Galaxy
Su
bstr
ate
Typ
e
iPhone Galaxy
Rigid
Flexible
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
OEMs increasing AMOLED panel adoption
• Samsung’s product lineup change and demand for Chines brands impact the AMOLED
market growth.
33
Samsung smartphone strategy in 2015-2016
© 2016 IHSSource: IHS
Focus on flexible
AMOLED to lead market
and gain high profits
Expand rigid AMOLED to
grab the volume market
Change displays from TFT
LCD to AMOLED
High end
Mid end
Low end
TFT LCD with add-on touch
to meet low cost demandLow end
Overseas brands’ AMOLED smartphones
2014 2015 2016
Model 21 models over 50 models
(55M panels)
over 50 models
(100M panels)
Brand Motorola,
Nokia, Lenovo,
OPPO, VIVO,
Gionee
OPPO, VIVO,
Gionee, Micromax,
Meizu, WIKO,
Huawei, Microsoft,
OPPO, VIVO,
Gionee, Micromax,
Meizu, WIKO,
Huawei, Xiaomi,
Microsoft, BB, HP,
Hisense, Konka
Product High-end Mid to high-end Mid to high-end
Display 4.x-5.x" 4.x-6.0" 4.x-6.0"
Resolution HD, FHD HD, FHD, WQHD HD, FHD, WQHD
Substrate Rigid AMOLED Rigid AMOLED
Started to supply
flexible AMOLED
from Q4 2015
Rigid AMOLED
Increase flexible
AMOLED
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Flexible OLED in SID 2016
34
Samsung Display Rollable 5.7” FHD
© 2015 IHSSource: IHS
BOE Bendable 4.35” WVGA
© 2015 IHSSource: IHS
BOE Foldable 4.35” WVGA
© 2015 IHSSource: IHS
JDI Curved 5.2” FHD
© 2015 IHSSource: IHS
LG Display Curved 12.3” FHD
© 2015 IHSSource: IHS
Tianma Bendable 5.5” FHD
© 2015 IHSSource: IHS
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Considering Foldable ApplicationTypes of flexible display by bending radius and folds
© 2016 IHSSource: IHS
35
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
36
Flexible OLED
Flexible OLED : Nice to Have or must have?
Nice but many substitutes good enough
No substitutes. Make people buy no matter how much it costs
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Semiconductor & Display Trends
November 2016
Technology
Vice President & Chief Analyst
+1 (310) 524-4083