john w. nielsen- gammon texas state...
TRANSCRIPT
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Weather and Climate Extremes
John W. Nielsen-Gammon Texas State Climatologist
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What’s a Weather or Climate Extreme?
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What’s a Weather or Climate Extreme?
• Something unusual • Something high-impact
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Why Do People Care About Weather or Climate Extremes?
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Why Do People Care About Weather or Climate Extremes?
• Something unusual • Something high-impact
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40
-10
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40
-10
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80
0
1989
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80
0
1949
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80
0
1930
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80
0
1899
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40
-10
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40
-10
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115
90
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9.05
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Weekly number of flood reports through November
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0
5
10
15
20
25
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20
25
30
35
15
10 5
0
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0
1
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World record: 21.93” in 2h 45m, Woodward
Ranch, D’Hanis, Texas
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Extreme Weather and Climate Change
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The Four Pillars of Attribution of Trends to Climate Change
The greater the number of solid pillars, the greater the scientific confidence that cause and effect has been identified
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The Four Pillars
Solid observed
trend
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The Four Pillars
Solid observed
trend
Known reason for
change
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The Four Pillars
Solid observed
trend
Known reason for
change
Good modeling
ability
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The Four Pillars
Solid observed
trend
Known reason for
change
Good modeling
ability
No outside
influences
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IPCC SREX
National Centers for Environmental Information
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IPCC SREX
National Centers for Environmental Information
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IPCC SREX
National Centers for Environmental Information
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National Centers for Environmental Information
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National Centers for Environmental Information
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Climate change turned a 96°F day into a 100°F day
National Centers for Environmental Information
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Climate change turned a 96°F day into a 100°F day
Climate change turned a 4°F above normal day into an 8°F above normal day
National Centers for Environmental Information
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Climate change turned a 96°F day into a 100°F day
Climate change turned a 4°F above normal day into an 8°F above normal day
Climate change increased the odds of at least 100°F from 1:50 to 1:7
National Centers for Environmental Information
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Texas Precip thru 2016: +8.5%
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The Four Pillars
Solid observed
trend
Known reason for
change
Good modeling
ability
No outside
influences
✔
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Texas Rainfall
Solid observed
trend
Known reason for
change
Good modeling
ability
No outside
influences
✔ ✖
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Texas Rainfall
Solid observed
trend
Known reason for
change
Good modeling
ability
No outside
influences
✔ ✖ ✖
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Texas Rainfall
Solid observed
trend
Known reason for
change
Good modeling
ability
No outside
influences
✔ ✖ ✖ ✔
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Texas Very Heavy Rainfall
Solid observed
trend
Known reason for
change
Good modeling
ability
No outside
influences
✔ ✔ ✔
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What makes rainfall different from very heavy rainfall?
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IPCC AR5, WG1, Fig. 2.8
56 (50,62)
Tweaked from:
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The Faucet
• Warmer air can carry more water = bigger pipe + 7% per °C
• The effect of weather patterns = turning the handle
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The Faucet
• The size of the pipe matters most when the faucet is wide open
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National Centers for Environmental Information
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National Centers for Environmental Information
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National Centers for Environmental Information
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National Centers for Environmental Information
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Statewide Extreme Rainfall Analysis
• For each county & each year: – Find stations with nearly-complete data – Pick the one with longest period of record
• Stitch together daily precipitation into one long time series
• Find events exceeding threshold • Sort chronologically, find date of middle event
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Time
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Time
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Time
Events less frequent Events more frequent
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Time
Events less frequent Events more frequent
new frequency old frequency
length of first period length of second period =
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*about once every 5000 days
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Probable Maximum Precipitation
• The maximum amount of precipitation physically possible for a given basin over a given duration
• Used for critical infrastructure design – Dams – Nuclear power plants
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Hurricanes
National Centers for Environmental Information
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Problems with Smaller-Scale Extreme Weather Phenomena
• Lack of stability in data record • Low signal-to-noise ratio • No direct information from climate models
National Centers for Environmental Information
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Smaller-Scale Extreme Weather Phenomena
Solid observed
trend
Known reason for
change
Good modeling
ability
No outside
influences
✖ ✖ ?
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Problems with Smaller-Scale Extreme Weather Phenomena
• Low signal-to-noise ratio – Natural (and random) variability drives
individual events and clusters – Small trends have large monetary impact – Once clear trend is detectable, it’s too late
National Centers for Environmental Information
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Hurricanes: The Balance of Evidence
• Increase in peak intensity (1.5 pillars) • Decrease in frequency (1 pillar)
– …but spatially variable (1.5 pillars)
National Centers for Environmental Information
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National Centers for Environmental Information
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National Centers for Environmental Information
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Change in hurricane frequency
National Centers for Environmental Information
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Summary
• Extreme weather – Extremely unusual – Extremely impactful
• Texas gets extremes • Climate change affects extremes
– Not always worse – Often very hard to tell
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Contact Information
• John W. Nielsen-Gammon • [email protected] • 979-862-2248 • http://climatexas.tamu.edu • http://climatechangenationalforum.org • http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov