Modalities for REDD+ Reference Levels: Technical and Procedural Issues

9 June 2011 SBSTA Side Event

Prepared for The Government of Norway

AuthorsArild Angelsen

Norwegian University of Life Sciences &CIFOR

Doug Boucher (Co-Coordinator)Union of Concerned Scientists

Sandra BrownWinrock International

Valérie Merckx European Forest Institute

Charlotte Streck (Co-Coordinator)Climate Focus

Daniel Zarin (Project Leader)Climate and Land Use Alliance

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AcknowledgmentsPeter Aarup IversenMarco AlbaniAlfred GichuKen AndraskoKemen AustinTasso AzevedoD James BakerGirma BalchaWilliam BoydAndrea CattaneoBas ClabbersTim ClairsSteve CorneliusPham Manh CuongAndreas Dahl-Jørgensen

Florence DavietManuel Estrada PorruaMochammad Farhan HelmyJose Carlos FernandezHorst FreibergPeter GrahamNora GreenglassBronson GriscomPablo GutmanPromode KantJagdish KishwanAntonio LaViñaDonna LeeCyril LoiselFabien MonteilsDaniel Nepstad

Michael ObersteinerLydia OlanderErika OordYaw OsafoJim PenmanPer F I PharoAudun RoslandMaria Sanz SanchezSebastian ScholzOsvaldo Stella MartinsBernardo StrassburgDoddy Surachman SukadriNaomi SwickardVictoria Tauli-CorpuzNatalie UnterstellMichael Wolosin 3

Goals of the Report

Describe the issues that UNFCCC negotiators need to address to develop modalities for REDD+ Reference Levels and Reference Emissions LevelsInform and support the SBSTA process that needs to respond to the COP-16 request for these modalities to be ready for COP-17Identify useful follow-up to this report, between July and November.

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What are Modalities?

A set of requirements included in a decision of the COP formulating rules, standards, or terms of reference that help operationalize mechanisms or frameworks established under the Convention.

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Why Reference Levels Matter (1)

Reference Levels/Reference Emission Levels establish business-as-usual (BAU) baselines against which actual emissions are compared.• We refer to these as “RLs” • Emission reductions are estimated as the difference

between RLs and actual emissions. • RLs underpin the credibility of REDD+• The process of establishing RLs can inform development

and implementation of REDD+ policies

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Why Reference Levels Matter (2)

Reference Levels/Reference Emission Levels are also needed to determine the eligibility of UNFCCC Parties for international, results-based support for REDD+, and to calculate that support on the basis of measured, reported, and verified emission reductions. • We refer to this as the “compensation baseline”

(CB).*• CBs underpin the credibility of REDD+ financing. • CBs influence the potential effectiveness,

efficiency and equity of REDD+ funds.*Formerly referred to as crediting baseline 7

Principles

For the Development of RL Modalities

Environmental Integrity

Access

Simplicity

For the RLs Submitted for Adoption

Objectivity

Empirical Basis

Transparency

Independence8

Technical Issues

Scope of REDD+Historic Emissions and Removals• Reference emission levels and forest reference

levels should be developed transparently taking into account historic data, and adjusted for national circumstances (Decision 4/CP15, para 7)

Adjusting for National CircumstancesLinking RLs to Results Based Finance

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Scope of REDD+The full scope of REDD+ is covered by the three categories in the IPCC Good Practice Guidance framework • Forests converted to other lands

o Deforestation• Forests remaining as forests

o Forest degradationo Conservation of forest carbon stocks*o Sustainable management of forestso Enhancement of forest carbon stocks in existing forests

• Other lands converted to forestso Enhancement of carbon stocks through A/R? 10

Historic Emissions and RemovalsExisting data in many countries are of limited value, and new data will need to be collected and compiled Steps and data requirements are relevant at subnational to national scale—key step is to establish a set of national standardsCountries could opt to work in a stepwise fashion:• On selected states/provinces where change in forest cover

historically high, or• On selected activity such as deforestation where national

capacity exists and satellite imagery is freely available

Approaches and data should be consistent with future monitoring system

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Examples of Needed Data

1. Definition of Forest- determines which lands to include

15% cover

30% cover

2. Select which pools to include

3. Measures of C stocks 5. Interpret remote sensing imagery

4. Identify drivers of forest cover change

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National Circumstances

Drivers• Commodity pricesDevelopment Plans and Policies• May affect future rates

of forest conversion• Integrate REDD+ into

national policies• Inflated RL?

Forest Transition Stage• Potential indicators:

deforestation trends, forest cover, GDP/capita

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Linking RLs to Results-Based Finance

Should the Compensation Baseline (CB) be set equal to, or adjusted from, BAU?Considerations relevant to the environmental integrity of a REDD mechanism:• Additionality: Definition and Scale• Effectiveness and Efficiency• Equity• Avoiding International Leakage

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Procedural Issues

UNFCCC Adoption of RLsTemporal Validity of RLsSubnational RLsRelated Processes under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol

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UNFCCC Adoption of RLs

RLs could be adopted through one of several alternative procedural approaches, including: • A single-undertaking top-down process• A country-driven sequential process• Hybrid process: political decision at the

international level and consolidation with country submissions

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Temporal Validity of RLs

RLs may be: • Re-negotiated within a specific timeframe• Re-submitted for review and adjustment • Automatically revised • Reviewed every X number of years e.g. in the

context of national communications

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Subnational RLs

Under an international REDD+ mechanism, Parties would qualify for international results-based support only on the basis of adopted national RLs. Where Parties develop subnational RLs, they would constitute a step toward adopting national RLs.

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Related Processes Under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol

LULUCF• Cancun Agreements – an annex lists reference

levels for estimating emissions from forest management by developed country Parties in a possible second commitment period. Values subject to review

CDM• If ‘enhancement of carbon stocks’ is clarified to

include A/R of lands not currently forested, then rules would be needed on how to integrate existing and possibly future CDM project activities in broader RLs 19

Potential Outline for REDD+ RL Modalities: A Suggestion for SBSTA

PrinciplesGuidelines on RL DevelopmentData SubmissionNotification of Preliminary RLsInternational Adoption of Final RLsData Administration

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Next Items on the Agenda

16:40 – Panel Commentators

17:10 – Audience Discussion and Q&A

18:00 – Adjourn to Reception

www.redd-oar.org

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