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Perspective Gregor Harter Barry Jaruzelski Alex Koster Vanessa Hyde PCs in the Enterprise Reinvention or Demise?

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Page 1: PCs in the Enterprise Reinvention or Demise?booz.com Tokyo Cosmo Takamatsu Partner +81-3-6757-8659 cosmo.takamatsu@booz.com Shigeo Kizaki Partner +81-3-3436-8647 shigeo.kizaki@booz.com

Perspective Gregor HarterBarry JaruzelskiAlex KosterVanessa Hyde

PCs in the Enterprise Reinvention or Demise?

Page 2: PCs in the Enterprise Reinvention or Demise?booz.com Tokyo Cosmo Takamatsu Partner +81-3-6757-8659 cosmo.takamatsu@booz.com Shigeo Kizaki Partner +81-3-3436-8647 shigeo.kizaki@booz.com

Booz & Company

Contact Information

DubaiKarim Sabbagh+971-4-390-0260 [email protected]

Florham Park, N.J.Barry [email protected]

Hong KongEdward TseSenior [email protected]

LondonVanessa [email protected]

MunichGregor [email protected]

São PauloIvan De SouzaPartner+55-11-5501-6368 [email protected]

StockholmMatthew [email protected] SydneyTim JacksonPartner+61-2-9321-1923 [email protected]

TokyoCosmo TakamatsuPartner+81-3-6757-8659 [email protected]

Shigeo [email protected] ZurichAlex [email protected]

Page 3: PCs in the Enterprise Reinvention or Demise?booz.com Tokyo Cosmo Takamatsu Partner +81-3-6757-8659 cosmo.takamatsu@booz.com Shigeo Kizaki Partner +81-3-3436-8647 shigeo.kizaki@booz.com

Booz & Company 1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In light of these changes, players in every enterprise PC market must prepare for a future that looks very different from the present. Prices will drop dramatically, cloud computing and consumer-friendly devices will reduce the centrality of the client PC, and always-on mobility will be the default mode.

Every player with a stake in the enter- prise PC market must be ready with a game plan for the future. CIOs must rethink their device management schemes and ensure that their IT archi-

tectures can support cloud comput-ing and the productive collaboration that executives will demand. OEMs should move quickly into high-growth developing markets while building attractive devices that can support the cloud. Cloud providers and telecom operators need to hasten the adoption of cloud computing while supporting the shift to smaller, more powerful mobile devices. And software players should prepare to take advantage of a browser-based future, in which “soft-ware as a service” matters more than the Wintel duopoly.

Manufacturers of traditional desktop and laptop personal computers for the enterprise face an uncertain future. On every front, their position is under attack. Smartphones and netbooks, linked together through high-speed broadband and cloud computing, undermine the PC’s use throughout the corporate world. Even in those markets where the enterprise PC is most likely to see growth—the developing world, and especially the BRIC countries—its potential may be limited by the head start that mobile phones already have, and by the rise of ultra-low-cost computers.

Page 4: PCs in the Enterprise Reinvention or Demise?booz.com Tokyo Cosmo Takamatsu Partner +81-3-6757-8659 cosmo.takamatsu@booz.com Shigeo Kizaki Partner +81-3-3436-8647 shigeo.kizaki@booz.com

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The enterprise PC market faces unprecedented pressures. Thirty years after its ascendancy, the market is now challenged on multiple fronts. Global infrastructure providers and software and Internet players are pushing cloud computing; Apple’s iPhone and other consumer devices are breaching the traditional divide between work and personal com-puting; and netbooks are outselling notebooks in certain segments, even being bundled into telecommunica-tions providers’ offerings.

At the same time, new technologies such as Pico projectors and foldable screens are changing attitudes toward user interfaces. Usage is shifting toward browser-based collaboration and networked styles of working, while average prices for PCs are plung-

ing below US$500. The potential for PC revenue growth opportunities has shifted to the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), where bat-tles are being waged between PCs and smartphones, and between local and global competitors. In short, the “right to win” for traditional PC makers is no longer guaranteed.

In order to gain a better under-standing of the significant market challenges facing the global PC industry, we conducted extensive panel discussions and interviews with industry thought leaders, including CIOs, CEOs, CTOs, and other senior executives in the technology sector. What are the key trends that will affect the industry’s future, and what can players do to position themselves to respond to those trends?

AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE

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Perhaps the most critical trend faced by the enterprise PC industry is the growing dichotomy between the developed and the develop-ing nations. Given the far greater penetration of PCs in the developed world, the nature and scale of the growth opportunities available there differ substantially from those in the developing world (see Exhibit 1).

Growth in developed markets will depend on the ability of the PC of the future to support the increasing shift to mobility, knowledge economies, and the behavior of the next genera-tion of computer users. The comput-ing needs of developing markets are likely to vary widely, reflecting the different growth paths and use patterns of each nation.

THE DIGITAL DIVIDE

Exhibit 1 Global PC Penetration

1Bar width indicates relative population Source: IDC; Forrester Research; Booz & Company analysis

79%

100

64%

56%

22%16% 16% 15%

12%9%

7%

Chi

na

Mid

dle

Eas

tA

fric

a

Asi

a P

acifi

c

Latin

Am

eric

a

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

Rus

sia

Jap

an

Nor

thA

mer

ica

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

Bra

zil

Ind

ia

Penetration (%)

2%

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

PCs PER CAPITA BY REGION—2008

Ø 17%

Population1

Global Average PC Penetration

Developed Economies

Developing Economies

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Trends in developed markets. How will the PC market in developed countries evolve over the next five years? We see a wide variety of influences affecting these markets, in terms of both how work will get done, and what kinds of technolo-gies and devices will be used to get it done. When we consider each emerg-ing force in terms of its transforma-tional impact as well as its likelihood of realization, a clear picture emerges of the developed world’s five-year “trendscape” (see Exhibit 2).

Of the trends identified in Exhibit 2, four stand out as being the most likely and having the greatest impact:

• Moore’s Law will continue to drive down component costs, resulting in

average prices for PCs in the range of $300 to $500 over the next four to five years.

• Continued globalization and the scarcity of skilled talent will force companies to demand maximum productivity from key workers, causing a further push for full mobility. No longer will workers be limited to mobile e-mail access and the odd WAP portal on cor-porate applications. The exponen-tial growth of mobile broadband flat-rate subscribers, driven by strong 3G and LTE penetration, will further support this trend.

• Companies are employing a new generation of workers with vastly different technology usage patterns

that are focused on social network-ing, personalization of devices, and a browser-centric work style. Indeed, 10 years from now, more than half of the working popula-tion in most countries will have been born after 1980. The pro-liferation of tailored-to-use de- vices will drive designs away from the standard, compromised devices in use today and toward more innovative, use-specific devices.

• A broad swath of industry-leading companies are already supporting the development of cloud comput-ing. As the cloud model takes off, supported by virtualization technologies, software and hard-ware will undergo a radical re- thinking toward nimble, small,

Exhibit 2 Developed Markets Trendscape

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Transformational Impact

Likelihood of Realization

WorkplaceDisappears

Rise of Personal Devices

PrivacyConcerns

Health Scare

Scarce Raw Materials

Virtualization and Cloud Computing

Outsourcing

In-sourcing

User Interface Revolution

Moore’s Law

Increased Mobility

Generational Shift

Family Fragmentation

Female Workforce

Low

Low

High

High

Rise ofKnowledge

Workers

Demographic, Social, and Environmental Trends

Technology Trends

Business Trends

Consumer Trends

Greater Automation

SubsidizedHardware

Device asa Service

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modular, personalizable applica-tions and devices.

Trends in developing markets. PC sales in developing markets will take a very different path from sales in developed countries. In the BRIC countries alone, PC penetration is expected to grow more than 30 percent annually, to more than 500 million by 2012. The trends that will define that path—most notably pric-ing pressure and mobility—will have a significant impact on the overall growth of the market for PCs in developing countries (see Exhibit 3).

Our analysis suggests four major trends that will have a particular impact on the future of the PC in the BRIC countries:

• Price pressure will be relentless. Already, more than 85 percent of PCs there ship for less than $1,000, a price point that represents just 2 percent of per capita GDP in the U.S., but 100 percent of per capita GDP in India. Further price cuts will only increase the willingness of mass-market businesses to buy.

• In these markets, the mobile phone has preceded the PC by several years. In 2008, mobile penetration was 39 percent in India and 49 percent in China,1 while PC penetration remained below 10 percent in both coun-tries.2 Mobile penetration in Russia already exceeds 130 percent. It will be challenging for PCs to usurp mobile phones as the stan-

dard business device in these mass business markets.

• BRIC nations are transitioning to knowledge-based economies. Although this will drive strong PC growth, it remains unclear how quickly and how widely businesses will adopt PCs, or how strong the demand will be for high-end services such as cloud computing.

• Leading local vendors will con-tinue to introduce ultra-low-cost PC designs in the mass market. These vendors already control 20 to 30 percent of their market, thanks to their strong local insight, sharp focus, and lean cost base. Moreover, many of them already enjoy strong government support.

Exhibit 3 BRIC Markets Trendscape

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Transformational Impact

Likelihood of Realization

SmartphoneSubstitution

Device-as-a-Service

Low-PowerDevices

Reduced Educated Workforce

Shift to KnowledgeWork

$10 Notebook Moore’s Law

New Device Entrants

Local Vendors Subsidy

Netbooks

Low

Low

High

High

User Interface Revolution

Microcredit

Mobile Banking

Virtualization andCloud Computing

Demographic, Social, and Environmental Trends

Technology Trends

Business Trends

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Based on the four most likely trends for both developed and developing markets described above, we have distilled seven possible future scenarios across those markets. The accompany-ing graphic (see Exhibit 4) presents the most extreme versions of these seven scenarios in order to draw out the most significant implications of each. Although these scenarios provide dis-tinct and sometimes mutually exclusive perspectives on the various possible evolutionary paths of the enterprise PC industry, it is more likely that they will coexist to some degree.

Each of the three scenarios for the developed markets builds upon the key trends of continued cost reduction, moves toward virtualization and cloud services, and assumes greater device convergence:

• “Plain Vanilla Cost Cutter”: The global recession will drive corporate IT toward a path of permanent cost reduction. BRIC players will leak disruptively cheap devices to the developed markets and price erosion will bottom out below $50.

SEVEN SCENARIOS

Exhibit 4 Seven Scenarios for Tomorrow’s PC Industry

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Plain Vanilla Cost Cutter

Developed Markets BRIC Markets

Cloud-Sourcing Rules

Consumer-LovedDevices

BusinessBoom

KnowledgeMarkets

Dirt-CheapWorkplace

Mobile Future

Evolution toward cheaper devices and ongoing rise of net-books

Recession causes long-term cost reductions

CIOs lose power to CFOs and slow legacy technology replace-ment

Prices driven down to $50 for high share of enterprises as BRICs leak cheap devices

Transition to thin clients, supplied by IT service providers

Paid as a part of monthly fee, with applications and storage in the cloud

High adoption of outsourced IT

Assumes increased collaboration and strict focus on core capabilities

Convergence into single, multi-form-factor personal device Supported by pervasive connectivity and migration of enterprise data and applications to the cloud

Combining work-place, smartphone, personal entertain-ment, and social networks

Strong take-up of PCs by large and SME businesses driven by ongoing GDP growth

Light application usage in mass business

Incremental cheaper pricing, with smaller and faster form factors

Niche markets for complex applications and cloud computing

Migration to know-ledge-based econo-mies and moderni-zation drives mass business take-up of applications and PCs

Strong take-up of PCs and applications by large and SME busi-nesses

Increasing virtuali- zation of applications

National vendors drive step change in PC prices (less than $100 in short term) and form factors (virtually disposable)

Very basic and cheap form factors and new business models drive mass-business take-up

Open source comput-ing much more pre-valent

Cheap mobile services enable PC substitution by mobile phones in mass business

Stronger mobile penetration already in place

Majority of mass business market uses only basic e-mail and Internet, mobile banking, and mobile commerce

Large businesses use notebooks

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

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• “Cloud-Sourcing Rules”: Corporate IT will substantially shift to cloud-based outsourcing, driven by the benefits of process innovation and cost reduction, as well as a renewed focus on core competencies. Devices will be pur-chased as part of service provision-ing contracts.

• “Consumer-Loved Devices”: Today’s multitude of devices will converge into a single, modular personal device employed for both private and business use. It will

combine a smartphone, a work-place computer, and a personal entertainment device. Enterprises will allow for “bring your own” devices and will stream application content from the cloud to these devices, perhaps even eliminating client devices for staff.

The four scenarios for the BRIC mar-kets are dependent on the degree of economic growth there, the likelihood of replacement of mass-market busi-ness PCs with smartphones, and the extent of disruptive pricing:

• “Business Boom”: A large market of local small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and large companies will emerge, seeking simple PC-based workplaces, further fueling growth for low-end PCs.

• “Knowledge Markets”: The move in these economies toward higher skills will accelerate, and the grow-ing number of knowledge workers will take on the IT usage patterns of knowledge workers in developed markets.

Corporate IT will substantially shift to cloud-based outsourcing, driven by the benefits of process innovation, cost reduction, and a renewed focus on core competencies.

Page 10: PCs in the Enterprise Reinvention or Demise?booz.com Tokyo Cosmo Takamatsu Partner +81-3-6757-8659 cosmo.takamatsu@booz.com Shigeo Kizaki Partner +81-3-3436-8647 shigeo.kizaki@booz.com

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• “Dirt-Cheap Workplace”: Demand structures and local players intro-ducing disruptively low-cost PCs in dramatically different form factors will drive the market toward an all-in PC with minimum func-tionality at the lowest cost, where innovation is commoditized.

• “Mobile Future”: The rollout of mobile broadband and lower-cost smartphones will severely cannibal-ize PC growth.

As noted above, it is unlikely that any of these seven scenarios will happen

in their purest form; instead, various combinations will materialize, with both positive and negative effects on market players, depending on their current position in the value chain. The Business Boom and Knowledge Markets scenarios would drive high PC volumes in BRIC markets, pro-viding strong growth opportunities for both global and local PC manu-facturers. The two scenarios based on disruptive pricing, Dirt-Cheap Workplace and Plain Vanilla Cost Cutter, would likely result in signifi-cantly lower revenues for manufac-turers, as falling prices would negate

the value of volume growth. The Consumer-Loved Devices and Mobile Future scenarios would mean a shift in value from traditional PC manufactur-ers to other device manufacturers or telecommunications providers. Finally, Cloud-Sourcing Rules would see value migrate away from hardware to solu-tions providers.

Ultimately, however, no one is immune to the consequences of any of these scenarios. Every player in the global PC market will need to transform its business model to adapt to a very different future.

Every player in the global PC market will need to transform its business model to adapt to a very different future.

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As uncertain as the PC market of the future will be, our discussions with industry leaders have led us to believe that the PC industry’s evolu-tion will be guided by four dominant characteristics.

BRIC countries will drive growth and influence the global PC market. Going forward, the BRIC nations will be the only revenue growth engine for the global enterprise PC market. These markets will be highly dynamic, demanding the speedy evolution of form factors, price, and functionality. National vendors will have distinct advantages: Their local market insight and lean cost base will enable them to develop customized, ultra-low-cost devices. The proliferation of no-frills devices will also affect the G8 coun-tries, cannibalizing certain segments

of those markets. To compete, global players must be able to gain in-mar-ket insights into changing trends in real time, and to take these insights back to developed markets.

The march toward the cloud vision is unstoppable. There is unprecedented enthusiasm for cloud-based services, with almost all industry participants attempting to find their position within this market. CIOs are finally beginning to perceive that the benefits of the cloud are greater than the potential downsides, and take-up is expected to grow significantly in the near future (see Exhibit 5).

“Horizontal” applications, including those involving collaboration, com-munication, and storage, will move to the cloud first. Legacy mainframe

CUTTING THROUGH THE SMOKE

Exhibit 5 How CIOs Perceive Cloud Computing

Source: Forrester Research, 2009

Lower Costs 70%

Increase Manageability 57%

Improve Security 54%

Enable Remote Access 49%

Reduce Consumption 30%

Improve Compliance 24%

Other 3%

Supports cloud trend

Unclear

Slows down cloud trend

CIO PERCEPTIONS

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applications may follow in due time—or become obsolete. The immediate effects will include the shift of some intelligence away from client devices, an increased role for service provid-ers, a shift in software capabilities, the fragmentation of computing plat-forms, and the merger of the operat-ing system and the browser.

The BRIC nations will find cloud computing particularly attractive; it will be fueled by fast-proliferating wireless data coverage and the abil-ity to use cloud-based services to fill skills gaps. The economics of the cloud—its scale and flexibility—are particularly well-suited to the expected rapid growth in BRIC markets, especially as concerns about legacy infrastructure and security decrease.

Consumer insight and design capabili-ties remain key competitive advan-tages. The post-1980s generation, which is used to a fundamentally different work style, will enter the corporate workforce over the next few years. This new generation will blur the boundaries between business and personal life, and total mobil-ity will matter far more than it does now. Privacy and security concerns will play a subordinate role. As a consequence, the kinds of devices available will fragment and become more tailored to individual usage. Users’ power to choose their preferred devices will increase, making design and ease of use even more important.

The boundaries between wireless communications and PC-based computing will blur. PCs and smart-

phones will continue to converge. For selected segments, they may merge into a single device, but this will remain a niche in the next five years. They will, however, continue to eat into each other’s markets. The result will be a continuum of form factors ranging from cell phones to notebooks—netbooks are just the first foray in this direc-tion. The fight will be particularly fierce in the BRIC nations, where the mobile phone precedes the PC by a decade for most people.

In addition, the role of telecommuni-cations service providers will continue to grow. They are well positioned to credibly claim a share of the business PC market, especially in developed markets, where subsidized, postpaid offerings are the norm.

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Given these four characteristics of the coming global PC market, industry participants would be wise to move quickly to position themselves for a rapidly changing future. Our recom-mendations lay out how the industry’s key players can best prepare for that future (see Exhibit 6).

Chief information officers. CIOs should realign their priorities. In the near future, enterprise PCs in major corporations are likely to be replaced

by an allowance given to end-users for their preferred personal devices. As the CIO of a major technology company put it, “As of 2010, we will not provide PCs to the large share of our employees who do not have security constraints. Instead, they can work with whatever devices they have: PCs, PDAs, smartphones, etc.”

As a consequence, CIOs should evolve their IT architecture to embrace the cloud and maximize the productivity

WHAT NEXT?

Exhibit 6 Recommendations Summary for Selected Industry Participants

Source: Booz & Company analysis

CIOS

NO

W

OEMS(PCs, Mobiles, Consumer Electronics)

CLOUD AND TELECOMMUNICATIONSSERVICE PROVIDERS

INDEPENDENT SOFTWAREVENDORS (ISVS)

- Enable your systems to support multiple operating systems and devices

- Innovate on Web-based collaboration and unified communications

- Go BRIC and establish native local design and go-to-market capabilities

- Define role in the cloud

- Excel at understanding consumer needs and design

- Build BRIC capability

- Solve security and compliance issues

- Embrace non-Wintel platforms

- Define role in Web services business models

- Innovate in collaboration—the renewed global business imperative

2 to

5 Y

EA

RS

- Take PC management off your priority list

- Refocus on architecture and embrace the cloud

- Act to support personal device proliferation

- Make quantum leap in usability and design

- Partner across converging device categories

- Gain substantial share of OEM device end-user value

- Innovate at the user end on design and usability

- Rethink software: cloud-based, browser-based, and Web-services- based

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of their top employee resources through innovation in collaboration and uni-fied communications. Several execu-tives told us that “consumers will quickly define the requirements, and will use their personal devices and services for work to maximize their personal productivity.” CIOs therefore have to define their corporate policy on this sooner rather than later.It may be that the recent economic slump will retard these changes. Several of the executives we inter-

viewed thought so, noting that “tech-nology shifts usually take longer than expected” and that “the recession will lead people to focus on short-term cost-effectiveness, which will slow down disruption.”

OEMs. Manufacturers of PCs, mobile devices, and consumer electronics are already struggling with market pressures. This pressure is likely to increase as value shifts away from the dominant Wintel model. The

winners will be the firms that are able to transform quickly enough to the new market realities.

It will be essential to build a cre- dible presence in BRIC markets, as they will be the center of growth, while leaking their products into developed markets. A local assembly and sales outlet will not be sufficient. Designs, form factors, operating systems or chipsets, and go-to- market strategies in BRIC nations

“As of 2010, we will not provide PCs to the large share of our employees who do not have security constraints. Instead, they can work with whatever devices they have: PCs, PDAs, smartphones, etc.”

— CIO of a major technology company

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are all likely to differ significantly from those in other regions. The difficulty of approaching these markets is illustrated by one enter- prise software company executive: “All the Western technology players know that the next battle is in the BRIC countries, but they have yet to see the fruits of their efforts in those regions.”

In parallel, devices will increasingly have to interact with the cloud and

will potentially be delivered as part of a cloud service. OEMs will therefore have to define their position—either participating in cloud provisioning to end customers or being reduced to a supplier to cloud players and telecom-munications companies. The big un- known is how much of the device’s value will be retained by the service providers. However, if long-term trends in both IT and telecommunications ser-vices are any indication, it will be the hardware providers that will suffer.

Finally, categories will merge, overlap, compete, interact, and re-fragment. A sustainable position in smartphones and netbooks today will be a valu-able asset in developing winning designs. At the very least, a partner-ship with mobile device vendors could help PC manufacturers share in some of the value that is migrating to smaller mobile devices. This vision was shared by several interviewees, including the CEO of one IT services provider: “As soon as advances in the

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technology make it possible to break the screen-size limitation, people will start using a single device for all their computing needs, and it is likely to be closer to the smartphone form factor than the notebook PC.”

Cloud and telecommunications service providers. Virtualization, the shift in enterprises’ focus to core activities, and pervasive broadband will provide a strong base for cloud players to drive significant take-up in adoption. Although a number of players are already participating in this market, the winning formula has yet to emerge.

Service providers such as Amazon and Google, telecom operators, and OEMs all need to establish their roles in this market. To ensure that the maximum growth opportunity is realized, efforts will have to be made to remove the remaining hurdles of security and high transformation costs.

Every player should be considering BRIC opportunities as part of its cloud plans. These markets could see strong growth in cloud services as they seek to close capability gaps, such as in-house networking capabil-ity, by purchasing IT as a service.

Analysts estimate, for example, that the Chinese software-as-a-service market will grow from $24 billion in 2008 to $77 billion in 2012, driven by platform operators like Alibaba and Digital China.3

Telecommunications players have already entered the netbook resale business, and are set to capture a sizable percent of the flow in netbooks in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia for 2009. Although this has so far been primarily a consumer trend, operators could also be a strong player in the business segment, bun-

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dling connectivity, cloud services, and client devices, and thereby capturing some of the current PC market value.

Large infrastructure software players and independent software vendors. Most of the prominent software vendors have started to adopt the cloud, the Web services paradigm, and a browser-based future—even if some did so only after major resis-tance. Given the redefinition of the enterprise PC, these players would be well advised to go one step further, embracing Wintel-independent or

Wintel-agnostic platforms. Most also still need to find a viable business model in the cloud environment, either by providing services themselves or by focusing on the software and delivering it broadly through partner networks.

One software company strategy executive summarized it this way: “The only reason people buy Windows is because of the library of applica-tions that comes with it, and especially Office. As soon as Office and other Windows applications are deliv-

ered from the cloud—and that will be soon—the device and operating system will become fairly irrelevant.”

This view also supports another key point: the reemergence of col-laboration. Across all regions, the boundaries between businesses, the scarcity of top talent, and the decline in travel require innovation in com-munications and workflow manage-ment. Innovative solutions in this space, based on cloud infrastructure, will be the clear winners in tomor-row’s PC market.

“As soon as Office and other Windows applications are delivered from the cloud—and that will be soon—the device and operating system will become fairly irrelevant.”

— Software company strategy executive

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The enterprise PC market faces un- precedented pressure. In the devel-oped nations, the PC market is expected to contract. Value will migrate to service providers that can take advantage of the unstoppable migration to cloud-based services or be priced away through ultra-cheap devices. Form factors will converge, and makers of innovative consumer devices will have a strong right-to-win in the enterprise PC market.

Significant growth is expected in the developing BRIC nations, although it may be slowed by ultra-cheap devices and the substitution of mobile devices for PCs. National low-cost vendors will have a strong role to play in their local markets. There is a major opportunity for large enterprises in BRIC nations to leap straight to cloud-based and virtualized services.

Taken together, these trends suggest the steps that should be taken by each industry participant:

• CIOs should refocus their activi-ties on architecture and embrace the cloud, increase their organiza-

tion’s flexibility and ability to run multiple operating systems and devices, and act on personal device proliferation.

• OEMs must go to the BRICs for growth, define their position vis-à-vis the cloud, embrace converging device categories, and redouble their efforts on consumer usability and design.

• Cloud and telecommunications service providers will have to focus their efforts on solving key adoption problems, and prepare themselves to drive growth in both developed and BRIC markets.

• Software makers should embrace Wintel-independent or -agnostic platforms and establish a viable business model in the cloud environment.

There is no doubt that the changes in the enterprise PC market will be significant. All participants must now prepare to establish their position in an increasingly dynamic market.

CONCLUSION

Page 19: PCs in the Enterprise Reinvention or Demise?booz.com Tokyo Cosmo Takamatsu Partner +81-3-6757-8659 cosmo.takamatsu@booz.com Shigeo Kizaki Partner +81-3-3436-8647 shigeo.kizaki@booz.com

17Booz & Company

About the Authors

Gregor Harter is a Booz & Company partner based in Munich. He serves leading ICT and telecommunications service provider clients across the globe. His more than 20 years of experience covers growth strategies and all as-pects of business transforma-tions along the evolution of the industry.

Barry Jaruzelski is a Booz & Company partner based in New Jersey. He leads the firm’s work for high-technology and industrial clients. He spe- cializes in corporate and product strategy and the trans-formation of core innovation processes.

Alex Koster is a Booz & Company principal based in Zurich. Working primarily in technology, telecom-munications, and Internet indus-tries, he specializes in growth strategies and new business models.

Vanessa Hyde is Booz & Company associate based in London. She spe-cializes in market growth and turnaround, product, and innovation strategy across the technology and telecommuni-cations industries.

Endnotes

1 Merrill Lynch Global Wireless Matrix 2008. Penetration is the percentage of the total population.2 Forrester and Booz & Company analysis.3 Analysys Mason; Booz & Company analysis.

Page 20: PCs in the Enterprise Reinvention or Demise?booz.com Tokyo Cosmo Takamatsu Partner +81-3-6757-8659 cosmo.takamatsu@booz.com Shigeo Kizaki Partner +81-3-3436-8647 shigeo.kizaki@booz.com

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