pax urbana - cover story from terra green magazine may 2013

8/12/2019 Pax Urbana - Cover Story from Terra Green Magazine May 2013

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Pax Urbana


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Complexity and Vulnerability

in Modern Cities: How do wemake them more resilient? Im p acto f

S eaL eve lRis eo nSm allI sla ndS tate san dC oas talC ou ntrie s


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28| TERRAGREEN|MAY2013

The Urban Ape

T

he year 2008 witnessed a remarkable

threshold in the history of humanity;

for the first time in the 200,000-yearhistory of our species, and in the 10,000-

odd year history of civilization, there are

more people living in cities and urban areas

than people living rural communities in the

countryside. Out of the seven billion people

living on the planet today, over three and a

half billion live in cities. In 1900, around 14

per cent of the worlds human population

lived in cities and only 12 cities worldwide

had populations exceeding 1 million

people. A hundred and dozen years later,

51 percent of us live in urban areas of some

sort and 400 cities have populations that

exceed 1 million people19 of whom havepopulations in excess of 10 million. This is

an extraordinary shift in the way we live,

one that alters a paradigm that has existed

for thousands of years. The consequences

of this recent change will take time to play

out in full, but we are already witnessing

some of the repercussions of this global

shift in lifestyles. While cities offer numerous

advantages in trade, communication,

culture, and social interaction, they are also

hungry, thirsty, and demand energy, this

results in cities requiring a constant influx

of resources to keep afloat. Most modern

cities today are not planned; they greworganically from smaller settlements that

happened to be in geographically strategic

locations. Their growth was a result of

them being opportunely located near a

valuable natural resource such as a harbour,

Modern cities are highly complexsystems, a giant mesh of interconnected

networks and systems that togetherform the basis of what we call urbanliving. A city is a giant machine thatdepends on the consistent performanceof thousands, even millions, of littleindividual cogs for the whole to functioneffectively. However, with this complexitycomes vulnerability, modern cities arenow more prone to attack and disasterthan those of yore. With more peopleliving in cities than in any time in humanhistory, the necessity to ensure thatthese urban environments are resilientand capable of surviving independentlyis crucial. The principles of sustainable

development, when merged with ideasin urban planning and renewable energycan help with that. Harish Alagappainvestigates


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29TERRAGREEN|MAY2013 |

or near gold mines, or oil fields, or being

at a strategic crossroad that allowed it to

dominate overland trade routes. No city

was designed to be capable of sustaining

the kinds of populations that live in them

today, and this makes them especially

vulnerable. Cities are not simple structures,

they are a complex web of interconnectedsystems that cater to the never-ending

demands of their denizens and institutions,

and this web is constantly being built and

rebuilt, all the while being required to work

during the interregnum. This complexity,

when compounded with the fact that most

modern cities do not produce much in

terms of the physical resources required to

keep the people living in them alive and in

good stead, is a constant challenge to urban

planners and policy-makers. The complexity

and vulnerability of modern cities pose a

threat to the very fabric of civilization, a

word that in itself comes from the Latin for

city. With imminent issues resulting from

resource scarcities and climate change

on the horizon, and the resultant social,

political, and potentially military disruptions

that may emanate from them, ensuringthat cities, and the large mass of humanity

living within them, are sustainable, safe, and

resilient is going to be crucial to preventing

a catastrophic global collapse.

The Birth of a CityFour out of the five most populous cities

on EarthShanghai, Istanbul, Karachi,

and Mumbaiare ports. Seven of the ten

most populated cities on Earth are located

at the sites of natural harbours, and the

remaining three are on the banks of major

river systems. This should tell us the first

basic truth about cities; much like the

wildlife they end up destroying, they grow

spontaneously over a long period of time

from relatively humble beginnings. Human

beings have lived in semi-permanent and

even permanent settlements since over20,000 years ago, much before the invention

of agriculture. The township of atalhyk,

located in Southern Turkey, was one of the

early humanity largest settled townships.

The people of atalhyk were probably

a mix between hunter-gatherers and early

farmers, but the town represented a huge

leap forward in the way human beings lived

and interacted with each other and with

their surrounding environment.

The township was not very different

from many of the slums and shantytowns

we see popping up in cities all over the

world, like the vast slums of Mumbai or thefavelas of Rio de Janeiro, because similar

to these slums, they were built by people

looking to settle down, who did not have

many resources or extensive knowledge

of building, and to whom safety came in

numbers. The first requirement for a city,

it turns out, is a sense of community, that

ineffable trait of humanity that finds solace

and comfort in the presence of our fellow

men and women. atalhyk was an

exercise in laissez-faire socialism, there is no

archaeological evidence of administrative,

military, or religious authority. The men

and women of atalhyk seemed toshare similar rightsperhaps for the last

time in a major city until the middle of the

20th Centuryand there is no evidence

of warfare or institutionalized religion. It

was, in essence, the kind of community

Cities are not simple structures,they are a complex web of

interconnected systems that cater to the

never-ending demands of their denizensand institutions, and this web is constantlybeing built and rebuilt, all the while beingrequired to work during the interregnum.This complexity, when compounded withthe fact that most modern cities do notproduce much in terms of the physicalresources required to keep the peopleliving in them alive and in good stead, is aconstant challenge to urban planners andpolicy-makers

Complexity and

Vulnerability in

Modern Cities


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that would have warmed the cockles of

the heart of a die-hard, Das Kapital-reading,

proletariat-advocating Marxist. Of the

social and political structure of perhaps

humanitys first city, BBC journalist, historian,

and political commentator Andrew Marr

said of atalhyk (tongue firmly in cheek)

that the problem with such authority-free

communes or settlements is that they are

inherently unstable social structures and

disintegrate very rapidly, the residents of

atalhyk could only maintain it for it

some 1,500 years.

While atalhyk was the largest urban

settlement in the era before civilization

proper, the real genesis of city life began in

the valley of the rivers Tigris and Euphrates

in the Middle East, in the modern-day

countries of Syria and Iraq. Here, we saw

some of the earliest large settlements that

grew into centres of Civilization; a word

that comes from the Latin civiliswhich

also gives us words such as civil, civic,

civilianwhich in itself comes from the

Latin civis, meaning citizen, and civitas,

meaning city. In the ancient world, to

be civil-ized was to be living in a city.

Civilization was born in the city, or the city

was borne out of civilization. The cyclical

relationship between the two can be seen

even today, it is common for city-dwellers

in countries around the world to think of

the rural brethren as slightly duller, blunt

instruments who lack the sophistication,

intelligence, and social graces of the people

living in cities.

The birth of the city came from

the conglomeration of people, goods,

and ideas. The worlds first cities as we

know them were probably formed by

the people of the ancient civilization of

Sumerwhose other contributions to

human history include writing, the wheel,

pottery and many morenear the banks

of the Euphrates River, downstream near

their mouths in the Persian Gulf. Cities

such as Uruk, Lagash, Eridu, Ur, and Kish

were settlements that served as both

administrative and trading centres. These

cities were the largest and most important

in the world for hundreds, even thousands

of years between around 500 to 700 BCE

What makes a city possible in the first

place is the idea of what I like to call energyprofits. If one looks at the work a farmer

does in taking care of his or her land,

planting and harvesting food crops, and

subsequently selling those crops in the

market (or paying some as tribute, as was

common in the ancient world), the amount

of food the farmer produces is far greater

than what he and his family need to survive.

Indeed the average farmer in the ancient

world could produce enough food to feed

ten or more people for the entire year. What

this does is leave the remaining nine or so

people free to pursue other things. Farming

is a labour-intensive activity, and farmershave little time to pursue hobbies. However,

people who do not need to farm can work

as potters and end up inventing the wheel,

or as traders who need a system to keep

track of transactions and end up inventing

writing, or as kings and priests who promise

salvation and protection, but are really

only out to pillage and loot what they

can for themselves. Traders would build

settlements in places that allowed them the

quickest access to multiple trading locations

simultaneously, which would grow rich

from the trade. These settlements would

attract artisans and more traders, tradingmore diverse and exotic goods. Kings would

set up their courts there, soldiers would be

needed to guard it, and priests would set up

temples. And hey presto, before you could

say urban development, a city is born.

While atalhyk was the largesturban settlement in the era before

civilization proper, the real genesis of citylife began in the valley of the rivers Tigrisand Euphrates in the Middle East, in themodern-day countries of Syria and Iraq.Here, we saw some of the earliest largesettlements that grew into centres ofCivilization; a word that comes from theLatin civilis which also gives us wordssuch as civil, civic, civilian which in itself

comes from the Latin civis, meaningcitizen, and civitas, meaning city. In theancient world, to be civil-ized was to beliving in a city


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ComplexityThe first major concern consequential to the

complexity of major cities emerges from the

fact that the mesh of interconnectedness

that defines these cities is gargantuan

in size and intricate in its layout. No one

can clearly comprehend the vastness of

the networks that underlie the seemingly

normal and mundane orderliness of

most cities. Yet, every aspect of civic

administration affects a dozen others, and

those dozen provide feedback to the first

in an infinite loop of mutating data. Within

this mesh of interconnected networks, the

famous principle of the Butterfly Effect can

come into play. The primary thrust of the

Butterfly Effect is that complex systems

display Sensitive Dependence on Initial

Conditions; that is, a minor change in the

initial conditions can have a chain reactionthat can trigger a much more substantial

outcome. The name Butterfly Effect comes

from a famous example elucidated by

noted American mathematician Edward

Norton Lorenz in 1972, which states that

the flapping of a butterflys wings in Brazil

can cause a tornado in Texas. Similarly, in

a complex system such as a large urban

conglomeration, a small change in the initial

conditions can have potentially devastating

consequence. Nowhere has this point been

as clearly illustrated as the global economic

recession that we are all in the midst. The

worlds banks and financial markets, aclosely interconnected mesh of information,

were brought to their knees by what should

have been a localized problem; increased

interest rates caused people to fault on the

houses mortgage payments which resulted

in the sub-prime mortgage lending crisis

that eventually created the global economic

recession. The inability of sub-prime lenders

to recover their loans in the United States

of America led to a spiralling chain reaction

that ended up destroying one of Britains

biggest banks and some of the USAs oldest

financial institutions, which has since

affected countries such as India and China,

as the developed worldthe primary

market for their Indias service economy and

Chinas manufacturing economyis now

able to afford fewer goods and services,

which is affecting the growth of these two

emerging giants. As economic growth in

these countries stall, inflation increases,

causing civil unrest and unhappiness with

the ruling government in democratic India.

As odd as it may sound, Indias 2014 General

Election could have been decided by a sub-

prime mortgage crisis in the United States

in 2007.

The complex interconnectedness of a

citys various life support systems implies

that it is possible to cripple a major citys

entire civic infrastructure by disabling just

one aspect of the system. This vulnerability

is even more profound when one considers

the fact that there have been attempts to

do the same on numerous occasions

On March 20, 1995, Japanese cult

group and terrorist organization Aum

Shinrikyo (currently renamed to Aleph)

whose members believe a doctrine of

absorbing the worlds sins and preparing

for an imminent doomsdayattacked the

Tokyo underground metro rail network byreleasing the dangerous and extremely

poisonous neurotoxin Sarin in a gas form

in crowded train compartments. Thirteen

people died and over a thousand suffered

breathing problems as a consequence

of the attack. The death toll was limited

because the mixture was impure and the

quantities used were small (around 900ml).

A single pinhead of pure Sarin is enough

to kill a fully-grown adult. Nevertheless

the attack was an indication of how one

aspect of a major citys infrastructure can

be crippled, leading to a chain reaction that

can eventually shake the foundations of

civilization itself. Modern cities are heavily

dependent on the input and constantexchange of energy and information,

both from outside to within the city

and also throughout the city via its civic

network. With the advent of the internet,

the possibility of cyber-attacks has again

highlighted the defenceless nature of

modern cities. Without almost all major

functions handled by computers that are

connected to the internet, a well planned

and executed act of violence on a citys

cyber infrastructure can have devastating

consequences.

The impact of the super-storm Sandy

on the United States eastern coast wasdevastating; cities such as New York and

New Jersey were subject to floods, storm

surges, and damages worth billions of

dollars. As Americas major cities reeled a

chilling realization came to the fore, this

was just the beginning. The impasse on

climate change has resulted in even greater

amounts of carbon being pumped into

our atmosphere, affecting global climate in

ways whose impacts are difficult to foretell.

However, scientists agree that the question

is no longer that of trying to stop climate

change, but of adapting to it. With greater

variability in global climate will come morestress on the infrastructure of our cities in

the form of storms, hurricanes, droughts,

and heat waves. A key point of mitigating

the impacts of climate change and adapting

to an uncertain and changing climactic

Complexity and

Vulnerability in

Modern Cities


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future will be making cities resilient and

adaptable to these impacts. It will be

necessary for global leaders, architects,

civic engineers, and urban planners to

find ways in which some of the worlds

major cities can be adapted to surviving

in this brave new world. As cities expand

outwards and the distance between two

urban conglomerations is eroded to form

a megapolis, the energy consumed and

the potential threat of climate change

disaster will increase exponentially. These

megapoli can be shining beacons of mans

conquest of nature and his ability to not

depend on the environment for survival,

but rather shape his environment around

him. However, while we do not have a full

understanding of the impacts of climate

change and their effects on global urban

denizens, it will be crucial for city officials

across the world to build systems that will

be able to absorb these shocks and emerge

stronger as a consequence.

A DelicateJugular Vein

Cities usually grow on the shores of

seas along major trading routes near nice,

large natural harbours that can take the

load of many ships entering and leaving

at once; or near river valleys that provide

a transportation route and a source of

water for the city s denizens. As humanity

marched forward, the organization grew

ever more complex. Farmerswhose high

energy-profit toil allowed everyone else

in the city to do something other than

trying to find foodsoon found him or

her muscled out of contention as cities

grew larger and more complex. Farming

communities are spread out over vast

distances occupying large tracts of land,

and as all city-dwellers know, the single

most valuable commodity in a city is space.

As transportation networks grew, all roads

would lead to the city, be it Rome, Harappa,

or Trantor. These roads, these transportation

networks are now the key to the survival ofa city. Fast forward to today and look at a

city like Delhi. The food that feeds the city s

11 million inhabitants comes from farms

stretching from Punjab to Uttar Pradesh.

The electricity that powers the city comes

from thermal power plants all over Northern

India as well as Hydroelectric Dams in the

Himalayas. Despite the fortune of having a

river flow through it, large-scale industrial

pollution on the likes of which one rarely

sees people do to their own river and

primary source of fresh water, has left the

River Yamuna almost entirely incapable of

supporting life and her waters are regarded

as dangerously toxic. Thus, for water, Delhihas to depend on the Delhi Jal Board (DJB),

which sources fresh water from the Ganges

and Yamuna Rivers (further upstream),

before the cities of the North Indias plains

leave them polluted beyond recognition

Despite these efforts, Delhi still falls

close to over 300 million gallons a day

(MGD) short of meeting the needs of the

inhabitants of the Indian capital. This is

made up for by private citizens using tube

wells and pumps to access groundwater.

However, 11 million people accessing the

limited groundwater of a city that receives

only moderate rainfall can have dangerous

long-term repercussions on the soil. Citiestoday are complex organisms that are

closely connected through a series of

sinewy nerves that form its electricity, food,

water, and information networks. As more

people migrate to these cities, and as now,

The inability of sub-prime lendersto recover their loans in the United

States of America led to a spiralling chain

reaction that ended up destroying oneof Britains biggest banks and some ofthe USAs oldest financial institutions,which has since affected countries suchas India and China, as the developedworld the primary market for theirIndias service economy and Chinasmanufacturing economy is now ableto afford fewer goods and services,which is affecting the growth of these twoemerging giants. As economic growth inthese countries stall, inflation increases,causing civil unrest and unhappinesswith the ruling government in democraticIndia. As odd as it may sound, Indias

2014 General Election could have beendecided by a sub-prime mortgage crisisin the United States in 2007.


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there are more human beings living in cities

than in the countryside, the vulnerability of

these cities is only increasing every day.

The law of diminishing returns can

also play a key role in the instability of

complexity global cities in the near future.

Cities are kept alive by the act of constantly

pumping energy into them, energy in the

form of electricity, automotive fuel, food,

water, and other supplies. Few global cities

possess these resources, or the means

to convert raw resources into finished

products used by the people, within city

limits. All the things that the city needs

to survive has to be brought to it. These

networks are critical to a citys survival,

without a seemingly never-ending of trucks,

trains, planes, and ships bringing in food to

feed millions, pylons carrying Mega Watts of

electrical energy, pipelines bringing in water

and natural gas and drainage systems that

clear the city of filth, most cities would not

be able to survive for very long, especially

not ones that are noted for being centres

of finance or communication as opposed

to manufacturing or trade. The city of

Sarajevo, the capital of the nation of Bosnia

and Herzegovina, was the epicentre of the

Bosnian War in the 1990s. After the fall of

the Soviet Union, the various communist

governments (commonly referred to as the

Commonwealth of Independent States)

that constituted the erstwhile USSR each

went through a bout of revolution and

political upheaval, but few places were asbrutally affected as the former Socialist

nation of Yugoslavia. As various political

and social factions within the country

began to clamour for independent states,

Sarajevo became the focal point for the

newly independent state of Bosnia and

Herzegovina. Blockaded and constantly

attacked by Serbs who wished to form

the independent state of the Republic

Srpska (the Serbian Republic), the people

of Sarajevo witnessed the collapse of urban

infrastructure over a period of almost 4

years. The siege, which began in April

1992, cut-off supplies of food, water, fuel,

electricity, and all the other essentials that

a city needs to survive. Surrounded by

military forces, there were ration queues

for water, constant bombardments, no

medical supplies, and few military supplies

to defend themselves. By the time the city

was liberated in February 1996, over 11,000

people had died, and a further 56,000

were wounded. The Siege of Sarajevo was

a showcase of how dependent a city is on

supplies from the outside, and how fragile

the intricate web of interconnectedness is

in modern urban settlements.

Moving ForwardThe question of complexity and

vulnerability in modern cities is a difficult

proposition for urban planners, but

solutions are being solicited. One of the

major issues faced by modern cities is water,

the most essential ingredient for human

life. Rainwater harvesting is becoming

more and more common in cities that

experience substantial rainfall, this is an

essential piece of civic planning that needs

to be implemented in cities in India, whererainfall is not distributed over the year but

occurs specifically during the monsoon

months from June to September. Energy

generation is an issue worldwide, and

cities consume most of energy produced

on Earth. Renewable energy technologies

can help make cities more self-sufficient in

their energy needs, utilizing solar energy,

and since most major cities are located on

the coast, the potential of offshore wind

and tidal energy to power a city are ideas

that many experts in the field of sustainable

development and renewable energy

technology are seriously considering as

solutions to ensuring modern cities areenergy secure. Perhaps the biggest issue

for cities in the 21st century will be that

of food. With more than half the global

population now living in cities, the pressure

on agrarian populations to sufficiently be

able to provide over 3.5 billion people with

their most basic need, food, is immense.

Making cities food secure is a challenge that

would require the substantial assistance

of science to engineer food crops that

give higher yields and are more resistant

to failure, along with pesticides, fertilizers,

and germicides that not only protect the

crop and help it grow, but also protect the

farmer and the consumer and help the soil

maintain its richness. As greater energy is

put into a city, the greater is the energy that

will be required to maintain it at where it

is, and ensuring this energyin the form

of electricity, fuel, food, and wateris not

halted will be the responsibility of future

urban planners and administrators. Cities

are the foundation of civilization, they allow

people from various cultures, communities,

and with different ideologies to interact

and exchange ideas. Humanitys most

fascinating ideals, democracy, writing,

civic administration, and the rule of law, all

emerged from the vibrant intermingling of

minds and bodies that one witnesses in the

great cities of the world. As these cities now

appear to consume most of humanity, it is

our responsibility to ensure their continued

security and resilience. #

Complexity and

Vulnerability in

Modern Cities

pax urbana - cover story from terra green magazine may 2013

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