pavel kabat...the state and prospects of water resources in south east asia: a case for a new...
TRANSCRIPT
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The state and prospects of water resources
in South East Asia:
a case for a new sustainability approach?
Pavel Kabat
Professor and Chair Earth System Science and Climate Group; Wageningen UR; The Netherlands (www.ess.wur.nl)
Director, Dutch Royal Academy of Sciences and Arts Institute
(www.waddenacademie.knaw.nl)
As of Feb. 1, 2012: Director, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria (www iiasa ac at)
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Monsoon Asia…..
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Monsoon Asia:
One of the most active human development
regions
Long history of civilization: more than 5000 years
57% of world population (2005)
Most rapid development in last decades
Continuous development in 21st century
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Monsoon Asia…..
Most rapidly industrializing & urbanizing part of the world
GHG emissions to double in next 20 years, Asia will exceed OECD emission by 2025
Asian cities are the “dirtiest” in world, 2x world average in pollutants
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4 critical zones in monsoon Asia
coastal
mountain
Semi-arid urban
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Water
Use
in km
^3 pe
r yea
r
AgricultureIndustryHouseholdsReservoiresTotal
Worldwide Water Use by Sector
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Worldwide Water Use by Region
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
EuropeNorth AmericaAfricaAsiaSouth AmericaAustralia& Pacific
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The current situation
1 billion people without access to safe drinking water
1.4 billion people in watersheds with < 1000m3/capita/yea
2.4 billion people with poor sanitation
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1950
World Cities exceeding 5 million residents
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2015
World Cities exceeding 5 million residents
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Precipitation transform curve:
runoff
DischargePrecipitation
urbanized area
rural area
Time
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Vulnerability projections
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Countries affected by destructive flooding since 1990
Nature, 2002.
Frequency of large floods has increased substantially during the 20th
century.
4 x CO2 : in some areas 100-year flood corresponding to control period can occur every 2-5 years.
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IPCC 4AR:
Most vulnerable regions are : Africa, Asian megadeltas, small islands, the Arctic.
Most vulnerable sectors are: water (espec in the dry tropics), agriculture (espec in low latitudes), human health in countries with low adaptive capacity, some ecosystems: viz. coral, sea-ice biomes, coastal ( eg mangrove and saltmarshes), tundra/boreal/mountain
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IPCC 2007
ALL WATER RELATED (WATER DEPENDENT)
SECTORS
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Smoothed annual anomalies for precipitation (%) over land from 1900 to 2005; other regions are dominated by variability.
Land precipitation is changing significantly over broad areas
Increases
Decreases
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Monsoon rainfall is the main water resource of the region;
High frequency of climate related disasters, such as flood, drought and heat wave, cause great damages of the region;
Response of ecosystems to the monsoon climate
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Evidence of potential impacts of human
activities on monsoon climate….
1. Changing monsoon climate under greenhouse effect
2. Impacts of anthropogenic aerosols ( sulphate aerosols , black carbon, ABC, etc) on monsoon climate
3. Impacts of large scale changes of land use /cover on monsoon climate
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Changing monsoon climate under greenhouse effect
e.g.
Increasing summer monsoon rainfall and variability in South Asia;
Weakening of winter monsoon over Asia continent;
Early onset of Indian summer monsoon
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Weakening of winter monsoon under global warming (IS92a,ECHAM4)
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Glaciers and frozen ground are receding
Area of seasonally frozen ground in NH has decreasedby 7% from 1901 to 2002
Increased Glacier retreat since the early 1990s
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Glacier melt in the Himalayas
1989
2000
1978
1996
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Ganges
Brahmaputra
Meghna
GBM BASINS The GBM Basins drain 1.72 Mi km2 area93% of the area outside Bangladesh75-80% of flow in 5 months of monsoon
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%change in decadal mean flow for Ganges from regional climate model output (RCM2)
RCM T Change 0 - 1 deg C1 - 2 deg C2 - 3 deg C3 - 4 deg C4 - 5 deg C5 - 6 deg CNo Data
DCW GlaciersCountry boundaryBasin boundary
0 200 400 600 800 1000 Kilometers
RCM P Change (%)-100 - -50 -50 - 00 - 5050 - 100100 - 150150 - 200200 - 400400+No Data
DCW GlaciersCountry boundaryBasin boundary
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Decade
% c
han
ge Uttarkashi
HaridwarKanpurAllahbad
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2030 change in Brahmaputra inflow
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
May Jun Jul Aug Sep
% c
han
ge
in D
isch
age
m3/
s
CCSM-A2 CCSM-B1 ECHAM-A2 ECHAM-B1 UKMO-A2 UKMO-B1
% change in inflow of Brahmaputra
2050 change in Brahmaputra inflow
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
May Jun Jul Aug Sep
% c
hang
e in
Dis
chag
e m
3/s
CCSM-A2 CCSM-B1 ECHAM-A2 ECHAM-B1 UKMO-A2 UKMO-B1
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Future changes in discharge and water temperatures
Columbia (Anatone) Rhine (Koblenz) Mekong (Chiang Saen)
Water temperature (
°C) 25°C – WHO and water quality standard
21°C - salmon tolerance temperature
23°C –cooling water limit
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Global Reservoir DatabaseLocation (lat./lon.), Storage capacity, Area of water surface, Purpose of dam, Year of construction, …
Visual courtesy of Kuni Takeuchi
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Alteration of river flow regimes due towithdrawals and reservoirsWaterGAP analysis based on “Range of Variability” approach of Richter et al. (1997)
Change in seasonal regimeAverage absolute difference between 1961-1990 mean monthly river discharge
under natural and anthropogenically altered conditions, in %
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Bangladesh
© Google Earth
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General Implications Climate ChangeIncrease in Temp
Changes in watershed
runoffSea level Rise
Changes in Precipitation &
ET
Changes in Snow and Ice
Melt
Increase in SST
Changes in Flood depth,
duration, extent
Increased Storm surge height and
frequency
Increase salt intrusion
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Climate scenarios – Sea level rise
2030
low - 10 cm
high - 25 cm
2050
low - 20 cm
high - 40 cm
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0 SLR32 cm SLR88 cm SLR
Impact of SLR on Salinity Intrusion
Hiron Point
9 km
90 km
Mongla
Khulna
Movement of 5 ppt Salinity line
Source: IWM
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Patenga Polder (P62)
Bangladesh: SLR should be considered in design of sea dyke section and height
Source: IWM
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No afforestation
600 m Afforestation
Afforestation width of 600m reduces the Surge Level by 50cm
Source: IWM
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The monsoon climate (change) and
SLR play an important role in the
social and economic development of
monsoon Asia region.....
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Not if we understand the wider contexts in which adaptation and sustainable development take place
...and if we explicitly incorporate the uncertainties in the type adaptation measures….
... spatial planning, technical regulation, economic priorities, adaptive management, risk management,
cultural preferences, risk psychology …..
But the (monsoon) climate and socio-economic scenarios have many uncertainties…
So is adaptation to climate variability and change, as a part of sustainable development, therefore
impossible?
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….future scenario selection must go hand in hand with the target application, and it should be accompanied by broader
vulnerability, risk and cost-benefit analysis…
….selected infrastructural measure should be robust and flexible to reflect scenario and uncertainty ranges….
... Sustainable development strategies can therefore be developed in the face of remaining uncertainties…
Implications for sustainable development
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Adaptation (autonomous)
Adaptation (with
investments)
x1
Climate parameter (e.g. rainfall)
Freq
uenc
y
Extremen Extremen
Drought risk
Flood risk
“Acceptable risk”
“Acceptable risk”
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Adaptation (autonomous)
Adapation (with investments)
x1
Climate parameter (e.g.rainfall)
Freq
uenc
y
P1P2
x2
Climate Change
“Acceptable risk”
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New Regional Challenges
New Planetary Questions
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Major Planetary Issues
Energy and CarbonWater ScarcityFood AvailabilityAir QualityHuman HealthUrbanization and Population MigrationPoverty and Education
The need to understand interactions and feedbacks in the entire Earth SystemThe need to develop integrated regional studies to assess the two-way coupling between the biophysical and social systems
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Important Requirements (1)
1. Improve understanding: Agencies/countries must
work together and support research based on
societal needs, not on their own agenda
2. Use the successful weather-climate observation and
prediction systems as the foundation for the next
generation Earth system monitoring , analysis and
prediction system.
3. Provide detailed regional information but
recognize that these require global models that
can represent high resolution processes such as
convection, hurricanes, surface hydrology.
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Important Requirements (2)
4. Communicate the excitement of the problem to a new generation of natural and social scientists, including scientists in emerging countries.
5. Maintain and expand the global observing system.
6. Provide the supercomputing capability needed to resolve key high-resolution processes and treat complexity in Earth system models.
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Important Requirements (3)
7. Develop awareness and communicate information
to society through a dialogue between
scientists, decision-makers and the public.
8. This will require a real cultural revolution: Scientists must focus on societal questions
The development of environmental knowledge centers
requires a cultural shift towards interdisciplinarity.
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What we need
The development of an Apollo-type program with an internationally-funded infrastructure, and specifically
(1)human resources that conduct innovative trans-and cross disciplinary research across all domains (social and natural sciences...
(2) a multi-national supercomputing capability that allows the development of global models at typically 1 km resolution;
(3) Earth system models that are adapted to massively parallel multi-petaflop machines (>100,000 processors)
(4) coherent observations, data systems, and shared standards that allow easy exchanges of data
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International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis (IIASA), Austria
Home of IIASA since 1972
www.iiasa.ac.at
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IIASAIIASAInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
www.iiasa.ac.at
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A Global Research Institute
established as a scientific bridge between East and West
after Cold War ended focused on multiple dimensions of global change
now embarking on the new research strategy for the next decade
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● International, independent, interdisciplinary
● Research on major global problems
● Solution oriented, integrated systems analysis
National Member Organizations
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IIASA 40th Anniversary Conference
Hofburg (27-28 June 2012)
IIASA (29 June)
www.iiasa.ac.at/conference2012
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Thank you !