paul van den noord 2010 11 08 growth drivers com
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
How to hit three birds with one stone: growth, fiscal sustainability and
global rebalancing
Paul van den NoordOECD
Objectives
Many OECD countries start from a situation of severe macroeconomic imbalance:
• Large output gaps• Severe fiscal imbalances: already increased
debt + budget balances well below levels consistent with stabilising debt
• World current account balances rising again
How should policies respond?
Tools
• Economic Outlook 87 projections to 2011 + stylised “Baseline scenario” to 2025 generated with “mechanical” MTB model (OECD WP 482)
• Simulations of alternative scenarios with the OECD Global model (OECD WP No 768) considering different combination of policiesFaster fiscal consolidation Faster consolidation + structural reform
OECD potential output reduced after crisis
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Index 2005 = 100.0
Post-crisis potential
GDP
Pre-crisis potential
Key fiscal & x-rate assumptions
•Fiscal consolidation +½% GDP pa in the underlying primary balance for as long as it takes to stabilise debt.
•When gross government debt > 75% of GDP then long-term interest rates increase by 4 bp per % point increase in the government debt-to-GDP ratio (Japan an exception)
•Exchange rates unchanged in real terms for OECD countries, for other countries based on Balassa-Samuelson effect
Large increase in government debt
• Consolidation over entire period for US, Japan, UK, Ireland, but still ..
• OECD government gross debt stabilises at level +44% pt relative to pre-crisis. 10 countries gross debt > 100% of GDP (only 3 before the crisis)
• Upward pressure on long-term interest rates due to higher debt.
0
50
100
150
200
250
OECD USA Japan Euro area
Gross government debt (as % of GDP)
2007
2010
2025
Global current account imbalances still large
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Absolute sum, expressed as an index, 2007 =100
Faster consolidation scenario
•Sufficient fiscal consolidation across OECD countries to reduce government debt to the pre-crisis levels by 2025 (except Japan where only ½ of the increase in debt is reversed)
•Fall in long-term interest rates due to lower government indebtedness occurs immediately as fiscal consolidation plans are assumed to be credible for financial markets
•Consolidation hurts in short-term, multipliers of order ½ to 1 (bigger if no support from monetary policy), but longer term benefits through lower interest rates and cost of capital.
Main results
• Consolidation reduces short-term growth (multipliers ½ to 1, bigger if mopo constrained). But faster pace of consolidation than baseline possible after 2011/12 still consistent with closing of GAP.
•Growth and output higher in the medium term
•Important cross country differences coming from size of fiscal consolidation + level of interest rates (Japan)
•Limited exchange rate adjustment helps reduce the deficit in the US and surplus in non OECD Asia but this is compensated by wider imbalances elsewhere
=> Fiscal consolidation is necessary but not sufficient to get balanced long-term growth
Fiscal consolidation scenarioWorld GDP growth (%) OECD fiscal balance (% of GDP)
OECD gross government debt (% of GDP) Global imbalances (%of world GDP)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2011-2015 2016-2025
baseline + consolidation
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2015 2025
baseline
+ consolidation
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
2011-2015 2016-2025
baseline
+ consolidation
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011-2015 2016-2025
baseline
+ consolidation
Additional structural reform• Non-OECD Asia: Lower net saving (3% of GDP)+
rebalancing of demand – Higher social spending in Asia– Deepening of financial markets & improving business
environment– Looser fiscal stance in non Asia OECD where possible– Additional RMB appreciation (20%)
• US: Higher private saving (1% of GDP)+rebalancing of demand
– Improved financial regulation– Tax reform– Additional $ depreciation (10%)
• Euro area: higher potential growth (mainly thru NAIRU)
– Lower product and labour market regulation
• Japan: lower net private saving (2% of GDP) – Lower product market regulation– Corporate sector reform– Deepening of financial markets
Main results• Japan: exit deflation more durably, higher
nominal output growth and a further reduction in debt ratio
• China: Short-term inflation pressures better contained. Lower surplus
• Euro area: stronger growth• United States: lower current account deficit• Global imbalances lower and put on a declining
path. • Higher medium-term level of output (by 2-3%
in 2025) and growth rate in the OECD
A more balanced scenario
A more balanced scenario
A more balanced scenario
A more balanced scenarioWorld GDP growth (%) OECD fiscal balance (% of GDP)
OECD gross government debt (% of GDP) Global imbalances (%of world GDP)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2011-2015 2016-2025
baseline + consolidation +consolidation & reforms
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2015 2025
baseline
+ consolidation
+consolidation & reforms
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2011-2015 2016-2025
baseline
+ consolidation
+consolidation & reforms
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011-2015 2016-2025
baseline+ consolidation+consolidation & reforms
Conclusions
• Fiscal consolidation, necessary but not sufficient. It could delay recovery, but shouldn’t derail it.
• Structural reform & exchange rate adjustment also necessary for balanced medium-term growth.
• More on timing, instruments of fiscal consolidation in the 18 November OECD Economic Outlook.