paul sissons ceo, gti media. session 1: the economic forecast the macro economy and impact on...
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![Page 1: Paul Sissons CEO, GTI Media. Session 1: The economic forecast The macro economy and impact on markets Session 2: The student research The evolvement of](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051819/5515e2fb550346dd6f8b4ddd/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Paul SissonsCEO, GTI Media
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Session 1: The economic forecastThe macro economy and impact on markets
Session 2: The student research The evolvement of early career skills in the light of the current economic
climate
Session 3: The Careers Services overview
Session 4: The graduate recruiter confidence
snapshot
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Session 1:The economic forecast
Bryan Finn
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UK economy: GDP growth
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
Annual % change
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UK economy and recruitment advertising
-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
GDP Recruit GDP Trend
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World economy: major economies
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
UK US Eurozone
Annual % change
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World economy: current world GDP growth rates
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Annual % change
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World economy: oil prices
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
US$ per barrel
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UK economy: share prices
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000FTSE 100
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UK economy: manufacturing
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%Annual % change
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UK economy: service sector output
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Annual % change
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UK economy: retail sales
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Annual % change
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UK economy: consumer confidence
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Balance
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UK economy: service sector confidence
-55-50
-45-40-35
-30-25-20
-15-10-5
05
10
152025
3035
Balance
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UK economy: inflation
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
CPI RPI
Annual % change
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UK economy: Sterling effective exchange rate
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Index 2005 = 100
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UK economy: house prices
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Annual % change
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UK economy: value of mortgage lending
-72%-65%-59%-52%-46%-40%-33%-27%-20%-14%-8%-1%5%
12%18%24%31%37%44%50%Annual % change
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UK economy: employment
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
Annual change 0000s
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UK economy: total job vacancies
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
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UK economy: job vacancies by sector March 2009
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Annual % change
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Future prospects: GDP forecast for 2009
-5.0%
-4.5%
-4.0%
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
Annual % change
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Future prospects: GDP forecast for 2010
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Annual % change
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UK economy and total recruitment advertising
-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
GDP Recruit GDP Trend
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World economy: world GDP growth forecasts 2009
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%Annual % change
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Our survey sample
• 1,504 survey participants from the TARGETjobs database
• 33.4% were in their final year of university, the rest in their first, second or penultimate year
• 31% male and 69% female• 20% from a BaME background• 69.7% aged 21 and under• 35% with 300 or more UCAS points• 58% attend a pre-1992 ‘old’ university• Survey open 9th to 20th April 2009
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Feedback and findings relating to employment
confidence from those participants in their final year at
university
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How confident do you feel about securing a graduate job when you leave university?
Final years
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How do these results compare with our last survey in February 2009?
Final years
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Do you feel more or less confident about securing a graduate job now than when you started your final year?
Final years
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Have you seen any effects of the credit crunch in your job hunting?
Final years
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April 2009
-28.5
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Graduate Employment Index: by RegionApril 2009
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
East M
idla
nds
East o
f Engl
and
Lond
on
North
East
North
wes
t
North
ern Ir
elan
d
Scotla
nd
South
Eas
t
South
Wes
t
Wale
s
West
Mid
land
s
Yorks
hire a
nd Hum
bersi
deUK
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Graduate Employment Index: by Sector April 2009
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Accounta
ncy e
tc
Banking o
r fin
ancial
serv
ices
Enginee
ring o
r indust
rial
Inve
stm
ent b
ank o
r fund m
anager
s
Construct
ion te
c
Law fi
rm
Public s
ecto
r
Consultin
g or b
usines
s serv
ice
Transp
ort or l
ogist
ics
Retail IT Oil
FMCG
Energy,
wat
er o
r util
ity c
ompan
y
Chemic
al o
r phar
mac
eutical
Insu
rance
Telec
omm
unicat
ions
Others
All sec
tors
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Session 2: The student researchThe evolvement of early career skills in the
light of the current economic climateNeil Harrison, TMP Worldwide
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Our survey sample
• 645 survey participants from the TARGETjobs databases• 70% 24 and under• 399 in their final year at university, 246 have graduated
and are in their first/second job post university• 44% male and 56% female• 32% from a BaME background• 66% with 300 or more UCAS points• 71% spent the majority of their secondary education in a
state school• 66% study or studied at a pre-1992 university• 77% of final years without a job offer to date• Survey open 6th – 21st April 2009
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What will you do if you can’t find a graduate job?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Goingtravelling
Furtherstudies
Get a localjob
Non paidwork
Generallylook to
enhance myCV
Don't know
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How will you build up your skills base if you don’t get a formal graduate job offer?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Voluntarywork
Non-paidwork
Furtherstudy
Local job Haven'tthoughtabout it
Don't know
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Let’s look more closely at those who will look at further study to build up their skills base
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Private schooleducation
State schooleducation
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Knowing what I do now about graduate jobs prospects, I would still have gone to university 3-4 years ago
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Definitely agree Broadly agree Slightly disagree Completely disagree
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Those people agreeing that they would still go to university if they knew what the jobs market was going to be like 4 years prior
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Without a joboffer
With a job offer
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The skills debate – it’s not going away:
‘Today’s labour market is bringing home to students the need to take
responsibility for developing the skills and attributes that will make them
employable’David Lammy
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Which workplace skills are important in the current economy cf a strong economy?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Communicating confidently
Team working
Commercial focus
Customer relations
Working autonomously
Entrepreneurial
Ability to take effective risks
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In the current economic climate, the ability simply to survive is key in the modern workplace
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Definitely agree Broadly agree Slightly disagree Completely disagree
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The ability to get your head down and ride out the recession is a key workplace skill
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Definitely agree Broadly agree Slightly disagree Completely disagree
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Effective risk taking is becoming a dirty word. People are becoming fixated on survival and ignore the
importance of challenging the norm. They value customer skills above all –
which is laudable – but does this suggest bunker mentality of ‘what we
have, we hold’?
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And is this flying in the face of what employers are looking for:
‘Graduates should be willing to learn & develop, bring new ideas and contribute to future growth’
Richard Lambert
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The investment an organisation continues to make in graduate skills is a major factor in how I rate them
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Definitely agree Broadly agree Slightly disagree Completely disagree
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If organisations continue to invest in skills development they will be far likelier to hold onto their people when things improve
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Definitely agree Broadly agree Slightly disagree Completely disagree
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I would be sceptical about those organisations claiming not to be reducing their investment in skills right now
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Definitely agree Broadly agree Slightly disagree Completely disagree
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Early career graduates
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My employer has cut back on skills development in the light of the recession
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Definitely agree Broadly agree Slightly disagree Completely disagree
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How do you respond to your employer cutting back on skills investment?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
It's a sign ofthe times
They arebeing
financiallyprudent
It reducesengagement
It affects mylong term
career devlpt
It makes itmore likely I
will leave
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The evolution of skills within the modern workplace
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Ability to develprof compets
Ability to formclient relats
Entrepren
Networking
Internal relats
Risk taking
Most impt skill in the current climate
Skills now more impt to your employer
Skills now less impt to my employer
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I would feel more engaged and enthused by an organisation continuing to invest in my skills
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Definitely agree Broadly agree Slightly disagree Completely disagree
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If the economy picked up tomorrow, I would look for a new job immediately
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Definitely agree Broadly agree Slightly disagree Completely disagree
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In looking for a new job, the amount of investment in skills would play a key role in which organisation I would join
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Definitely agree Broadly agree Slightly disagree Completely disagree
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Two things to leave you with:
• 40% of your early career professional would jump ship if they had the chance
• We are creating an employment environment in which risk is viewed negatively
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Session 3:View from the campus – the skills agenda
Anne-Marie Martin
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The sample• All Heads of Careers Services at Russell Group
InstitutionsBirmingham, Bristol, Cambridge, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Glasgow , Imperial, King's, Leeds, Liverpool, LSE, Manchester, Newcastle upon Tyne, Nottingham, Oxford, Sheffield, Southampton, UCL, Warwick
• All Heads of Careers Services at 94 Group InstitutionsBath, Birkbeck, Durham, East Anglia, Essex, Exeter, Goldsmiths, Royal Holloway, Lancaster, Leicester, Loughborough, Queen Mary, Reading, St Andrews, SOAS, Surrey, Sussex, Warwick, York
• AGCAS Officers
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The survey
• Careers Service involvement with the skills agenda – At Government and regional level– At institutional policy level – Operationally with students and graduates
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The Context• There have been many government initiatives intent on encouraging
Universities to align more closely with business and students to acquire employment related skills.
• Ex Polytechnics and Colleges of Higher Education were the first to introduce the teaching of employability skills into their curriculum.
• Older Universities, especially those that are described as research-led have been slower to respond.
• Research led institutions have, however, always been committed to the idea that the academic experience is more than attending lectures and gaining knowledge. They have been keen to encourage employability without diluting essential academic freedoms and rigour.
• This research uncovers a huge range of endeavours throughout the sector not only to improve the opportunities to develop skills, but also to help students assess their skills and articulate them to employers.
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What’s going on at Government Level
“I was asked to give evidence to Alan Milburn’s / Cabinet Office Fair Access to the Professions Panel. As a result of that my team is working with the Cabinet Office to
produce a tool kit for employers considering taking an intern.”
•The role of Universities in training individuals for the workplace has been the subject of a library of government reports and investigations.
•Both Government and Universities now consult and listen to the views of careers advisers.
•80 Institutions and AGCAS contributed to the recent CBI/UUK report, ‘Future Fit’, which highlighted progress made in skills delivery.
•Represented on or contributed to DIUS Higher Skills Steering Group led by David Lammy; DIUS Graduate Employment Forum which meets monthly and is advising on the establishment of graduate internships; and UK Skills Commission consultation.
•AGCAS Liaison Officers for all Sector Skills Councils ensure there is effective communication between careers advisers and the industries represented by the SSC.
•HEFCE have pumped £50M into Universities via Careers Services under the Economic Challenge Investment Fund.
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Regionally is where it’s at• Almost all Regional Development Agencies are working with Universities to increase
the number of work placements and internships both for current students and, in response to the current recession, recent graduates.
• General schemes include: – Graduates for Business in the SW develops graduate employability skills through work
placement and a 3 day ‘graduate directions’ course.
– Yorkshire and Humberside giving 2/3rd wage subsidy to employers offering internships. Each of the 10 regional Universities will have 20 to 30 internships specifically for graduates. Skills development and training will be in integral part of the scheme.
• Others are focused on particular regional skills needs or disciplines – ‘Wired Sussex’ is developing skills in the digital media sector.
– GradEast is helping small and medium sized enterprises employ and use graduates more effectively.
– The SE Physics network summer studentship scheme offers funded work experience and skill development for Physics and Astronomy students and graduates.
– AGCAS Scotland Financial Skills Gateway will enhance the development and management of skills within Scotland in line with future industry needs.
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Institutions • Employability Strategies
“My institution’s key ambitions are to increase the proportion of students exposed to work-based learning, enhance provision for skills development &
increase employer involvement in curriculum delivery”
• Learning and Teaching Strategies and Curriculum Reviews “I was fully involved in the review of the curriculum. I took soundings from all our major employers to identify skills gaps in our students. This has resulted in a new cutting edge course, which will be compulsory for all students from
2010, that aims to both broaden the thinking of the undergraduates and integrate key learning skills”
• Graduate attributes. Both skills and a set of desirable attitudinal dispositions.
• Employability Awards/Skills certificates/Credits in recognition of the development of employment-related and other skills outside the curriculum.
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Practical Assistance“ We are seen as the skills provider. 82% of our 60+ skills sessions are
delivered/co-delivered by employers. Students love them.”
•Everyone delivers career management skills training and transferable skills awareness training. Many are also delivering transferable skills training often in association with employers
•Some are running these as modules embedded in the curriculum or providing consultancy to academic staff to assist them to do so
•Loads of online activity designed to encourage students to audit their own skills and identify ways of filling the gaps
•Some specifics:• Developing skills clouds for every degree discipline• Delivering specific training for students working and volunteering on campus eg client interviewing
skills for students volunteering to work in the Legal Advice Centre • A student internship bureau• ‘How to Analyse and Promote your Skills to Employers’, Skills4Work• Joint module with the enterprise department on commercial awareness
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Session 4:The graduate recruiter confidence
snapshotCarl Gilleard, AGR
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Which sector do you operate in?
Accountancy of Professional
Services
Banking or Financial
Services
Engineering or Industrial
Investment bank or Fund
Managers
Construction company of
consultancy
Law fi rm
Public Sector
Consulting or Business
Service
Transport or Logistics
Retail
IT
Oil
FMCG
Energy, Water or Utility
Company
Chemical or Pharmaceutical
Insurance
Telecommunications
Other
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
% of Responses
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Is the market your business operates in:
% of Responses
67.70%
9.70%
22.60%
Global
Europe
UK Only
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Are you more or less confident about the prospects for the UK economy than you were three months ago?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
% of Responses
Much More SlightlyMore
The Same SlightlyLess
Much Less
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Are you more or less confident about the prospects for your business than you were three months ago?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
% of responses
Much More SlightlyMore
The Same SlightlyLess
Much Less
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Comparing your graduate intake with 2007/08 do you expect to recruit:
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Many More A Few More The Same Slightly Fewer Many Fewer None
% o
f R
esp
on
ses
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Have your target numbers of graduate recruits been adjusted since the start of the current recruiting round?
% of Responses
Down Slightly,
43.5
Down Significantly,
16.9
Up Significantly,
2.4 Up Slightly, 8.9
No Change, 28.2
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Do you expect to meet your graduate targets?
0
20
40
60
80
100
% of Responses
Yes No