PaulNexUniversityoftheWitwatersrand

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WhatareCri*cal/Strategic(Green/Electronic)Metals/Materials

Seriousanswer:“Criticalmetalsaremetalswhoseavailabilityisessentialforhigh-technology,greenanddefenceapplications,butvulnerabletopoliticallyoreconomicallydrivenfluctuationsinsupply.Textinredwouldnothavebeeninearlierdefinitions:Anydefinitiondependsonthecountryyouarein,thetechnology/industryyouareinterestedin,yourperceivedriskoffuturesupply,andperceiveddemand.ALLofthesearesubjecttochange.(Nex,2015)Cynicalanswer:Anymetalormaterialthatcanbesodeclaredtoenhancethe‘spin’producedbyajuniorexplorationcompanyORtoincreasethechancesofobtainingresearchfundingintheacademicenvironmentORtoenableproducingcompaniestoincreasepricesORtojustifyin-depthstudiesbygovernmentdepartments.

Gunn2013

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CRITICALRAWMATERIALS

Cri*cal/StrategicMetals/Materials�  Thereisnothingnewinthisconcept:

�  ItishighlylikelythattheRoman’sinvadedBritaintoobtaintin(55BC.)

�  Inthe2ndWW,tungstenwasacritical/strategicmetal(formunitions)andPanasqueria(Portugal)wasthemainproducerforbothsidesoftheconflict.

�  The1983theUSCongressproducedapaperon“StrategicandCriticalNonfuelMinerals:ProblemsandPolicyAlternatives”.Thiswaslargelyinresponsetothe“oilcrisis”of1973whenOAPECproclaimedanoilembargo–thishighlightedadependencyonrawmaterials.

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In2010anEUreportidentified14criticalmaterials(REE,PGM,Nb,Ge,Mg,Ga,Sb,In,W,F,Be,Co,Ta,Graphite)outof41whichweredefinedascriticalbasedoneconomicimportanceandsupplyrisk

EU2010Report

Thegraphthatstarteditall

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In2011antimony(Sb),rhenium(Re)andgermanium(Ge)wereidentifiedasthethreemostcriticalmetalsforGermanindustrybyIZTundertakingresearchforBGRandDERA.REEPt,Ga,W,Ag,Sn,In,Nb,CrandBiwereinthesecondgrouping

IZT2011Report

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Antimony Sb 8.5 China PGE 8.5 South Africa Mercury 8.5 China Tungsten 8.5 China REE 8.0 China Niobium 8.0 Brazil Strontium 7.5 China Bismuth 7.0 China Thorium 7.0 India Bromine 7.0 USA Carbon(graphite) 7.0 China Rhenium 6.5 Chile Iodine 6.5 Chile Indium 6.5 China Germanium 6.5 China

2011BGSRiskListREE 9.5 China Tungsten 9.5 China Antimony 9.0 China Bismuth 8.6 China Molybdenum 8.6 China Strontium 8.6 China Mercury 8.1 China Barium 8.1 China Carbon(graphite) 7.6 China Beryllium 7.6 USA Germanium 7.6 China Niobium 7.6 Brazil PGE 7.6 South Africa Cobalt 7.6 DRC Thorium 7.6 India

2012BGSRiskList

Ooops–(where’sthelithium?)

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REE 9.5 China Tungsten 9.5 China Antimony 9.0 China Bismuth 8.6 China Molybdenum 8.6 China Strontium 8.6 China Mercury 8.1 China Barium 8.1 China Carbon(graphite) 7.6 China Beryllium 7.6 USA Germanium 7.6 China Niobium 7.6 Brazil PGE 7.6 South Africa Cobalt 7.6 DRC Thorium 7.6 India

2012BGSRiskList 2015BGSRiskList

REE 9.5 China Sb 9.0 China Bi 8.8 China Ge 8.6 China V 8.6 China Ga 8.6 China Sr 8.3 China W 8.1 China Mo 8.1 China Co 8.1 USA In 8.1 China As 7.9 Brazil Mg 7.6 South Africa PGE 7.6 DRC Li 7.6 India Ba 7.6 Graphite 7.4

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In2013,aEUreviewoftheoriginal14criticalmetalswasundertakenand20criticalmaterialswereidentifiedoutof54.(Additionalmetals:REE’ssplitintoLights&Heavy's,Borates,Chromium,CokingCoal,Magnesite,PhosphateRock,SiliconMetal,GraphitechangedtoNaturalGraphite).NotethatwiththeexceptionofHREEthesupplyriskhasdecreasedformostofthecommoditiesfromthe2010study.“Theworldcontainstheenergyandmineralresourcesneededtosustain10.5billion(theleveltheworldpopulationisexpectedtoreachin2100)ataEuropeanstandardoflivingforhundredsofcenturies.”Cathles,2015.”–(Mostofitisactuallyinseawater)

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In2017anewEUlistwithevenmorecommodities,9morethanthe2014list–sooneverythingwillbecritical!!(Sorry,Cynicalert)NBLithiumisstillNOTregardedascritical

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Whatisthe“HypeCycle”DevelopedbyFenn(1995)workingfortheGartnerGrouptodescribetheperformanceofemergingtechnologies.Somewhat“Zen-like”interminologyNotreallyacycleanddoesn’tpredictwhathappenstotheemergingtechnology–thereisonlyoneoutcome.Possiblybetterenvisagedasafeedbackloopratherthanacycle.

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Timescaleswillvary

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Hypecycleappliedtocommodi*es:cmdtyandshareprices,scien*ficcita*onsreflectthesametrends.

Welmer&Dalheimer2012MinDep(RawMaterials)Nex2019

Tantalum

Greenbushes(Australia)

Obtainedtypicallyfromtantalite;rare-metalpegmatites(LCT),someproductionfrompyrochloreincarbonatites,co-productionfromtindepositsuntilthetincrisisoftheearly1980’s.Principleuseinelectroniccapacitors;cellphones,harddrives,hearingaids,pacemakers.Productionandpricenottransparent–individualcontractsbetweenproducersandprocessors,Publishedstatisticsfrequentlycombinedwithniobium.Untilmid-2000’sproductiondominatedbyTANCO(Canada)andWodgina/Greenbushes(SonsofGwalia,Australia) Nex2019

2004SonsofGwaliabankrupt

1998-2000cellphones

3hypecycles?

ElectronicsIndustry,Panicbuying,Stockpiling(Cunningham1998)

Stockpilesdepleted,increaseddemand

ProductionDataUSGS2017 Pricedata:metalary.com(1999-present)andUSGS1999(pre-1998)

2006-2015volatility

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AccordingtoRoskill(2016)intheearly2000’s“rapidlygrowingdemandfortantalumwasbasedonthewhollyunfoundedbeliefthatatantalumshortagewasimminent.”Demanddecreased,noshortage,pricestumbled–Classic“HypeCycle”NB:Pricespost-collapsegraduallyincreasedandwereabovepre-hypelevels,productionalsoincreased,toreach–“ThePlateauofProductivity”

Priceincreases(3rdhypecycle)2010-2014probablyduetoacombinationoffactors:Tanco,GreenbushesandWodginaclosures,Care&Maintenance(2008-2011),productionnowdominatedbyCentralAfricanpegmatites(Rwanda),reopeningofGreenbushes&Wodgina?DesignationasaconflictmineralandtheDodd-FrankActof2010.Othernewprojectsarenotactivemines(yet?)(AbuDabbab,Nuweibi,UpperFir,Kanyika):therearestillplentyofuntappedresources

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REE

Glenover(SouthAfrica)

Nkombwa(Zambia)

Notrare,justdifficulttoextract.1965-1985:MostproductionfromMountainPass1984:ChinastartsproducingFrom1988:>80%oftheworld’sREEproducedinChina2002:MountainPasscloses2010:SenkakuIncident2012:>200JuniorexplorationcompanieslookingforREEdeposits

Castor&Hedrick,2006;Paulick&Machacek,2017

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Relatingthehypecycleandcriticalmetalsisnotnew!!

Hocquard2010BRGMPresentationatIfriRoundTableBrussels(InstituteFrancaisdesRelationsInternationales)

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Hydrothermal(carbonatite):

WiguHillKangankundeLofdalNgualla

Hydrothermal(metamorphic):

SteenkampskraalSupergene(carbonatite):

ZandkopsdriftXiluvoGlenover

Supergene(ion-adsorption?):

Tantalus

SouthernAfricanCarbonatites&REEDeposits

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Deposit Country Source Mt %TREO ContainedREO(kt)

%HREO

NguallaHill Tanzania Carbonatite 195 2.26 4400 0.33

Zandkopsdrift SouthAfrica Carbonatite 42.48 2.08-2.28 949 1.69

Tantalus Madagascar Ion-adsorbtionClays

560.6 0.09 561 4.37

Songwe Malawi Carbonatite 31.8 1.38-1.62 469 1.67

Glenover SouthAfrica Carbonatite 10.37 2.23 231 1.45

Kangankunde Malawi Carbonatite 2.53 4.24 107 0.19

Steenkampskraal SouthAfrica Vein 0.665 14.0 93 1.79

WiguHill Tanzania Carbonatite 3.3 2.16 61 0.10

Xiluvo Mozambique Carbonatite 1.1 2.05 23 1.81

Lofdal Namibia Carbonatite 6.16 0.29 18 20.50

MrimaHIll Kenya Carbonatite 159.4 3.61-4.40 6 2.20

AFRICANREEDEPOSITSWITHESTABLISHEDRESOURCES(datafromTechnologyMetalsResearchhttp://www.techmetalsresearch.com/2016)

Addedtoresourceinventoriesbetween2010and2016

From2011-2015definedmineralresourcesofREEoutsideofChinadoubled:

40Mtto98Mt

Paulick&Machacek,2017

Castor&Hedrick2006

Canada38MtGreenland36MtAfrica10Mt

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GalileoResources(Glenover)

GreatWesternMinerals(Steenkampskraal)

MkangoResources(Songwe)

NamibiaCriticalMetals(Lofdal)

SharepricegraphsfromGoogleFinance

Molycorp(MountainPass)

Fromacommercialperspectivetimingiseverything.Ifyoumissthefirsthypecycleyoumightcatchthenextone

CommodityPricesandStockPricesshowsympathetictrends-unsurprisingly

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LithiumBikita(Zimbabwe)

Rubicon&Helicon(Namibia)

ObtainedfrombrinesorpegmatitesEV’s–Li-ionbatteriesClimateChangeLegislation

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ProductiondatafromBGSWorldMineralStatistics(NBrecalculatedfrommineraldatatolithiumwherenecessary).Pricedatafrommetalary.com

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TheEdelsonInstitute

Theexplorationexpenditurefiguresaredifficulttoquantifybuttherewasdefinitelyahard-rocklithiumexplorationboomin2017-2018.

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Project Company Ore Grade(Li2O)

ContainedLiO2

Zim Bikita BikitaMinerals Kesler,1978Clarke,2011

10.8Mt10.8Mt

1.4%0.58%

Zim Kamativi CATStrategicMetals

2018(NI43-101) 26.3Mt 0.28% 0.073Mt

Zim Acadia ProspectResources 2017(SAMREC) 40.5Mt 1.44% 0.583Mt

Zim Zulu PremierAfricanMinerals

2017(SAMREC) 20.1Mt 1.06% 0.213Mt

Namibia Helicon&Rubicon

DesertLionEnergy Historical 1.1Mt 1.4%

DRC Manono-Kitolo

Historical 7.86Mt 0.76%

DRC Manono-Kitolo

Historical 35Mt 0.6%

DRC ManonoProject

AVZMinerals 2018(JORC) 259.9Mt 1.63% 4.236Mt

Ghana EgyasimankuHill

IronRidgeResources Historical 1.48Mt 1.66%

Mali Goulamina Birimian 2017(JORC)2018(JORC)

32.9Mt103Mt

1.37%1.34%

1.380Mt

Total 449.8Mt 6.412Mt

Thenewlydeterminedhard-rockresourcesinAfricaequatetoapproximately3MtofLi.(GlobalproductionofLiisintheregionof80,000tpa)

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AVZMinerals(Manolo)

Birimian(Goulamina)

Unsurprisinglythesametrendsareseeninshareprices(DatafromGoogleFinance)

ProspectResources(Arcadia)

Onemajoreffectofthehypecycleisastimulustoexplorationandanincreaseintheresourcebase–thisisaGOODthing

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2016BGSLithiumProfile

Benson,2017

Africaisunder-representedandwhereisBikita?

USGS2017

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ReserveBase(RB)RBinTg(1012g)NotStock-exchangecompliant!!ResourceBasederivedfromUpperCrustalAbundanceFigurefromGraedel&Nassar(2013GSLSP393)

PublishedResourcesandReservesarenotsufficientforforecasting–althoughitswhatweuse.

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FromCRIRSCO(CommitteeforMineralReservesInternationalReportingStandards)

Togenerateresourceand/orreserveinformationrequiresexplorationandmoney.Ifithasn’tbeendrilled,sampledandanalysedandunderstoodbygeologists,miningengineersandmetallurgists–itdoesn’texist,atleastinthestatistics.

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�  CriticalRawMaterialsvarywithtimeandplace.

�  Perceivedshortagesaretypicallyareactionbytheuninformed.

�  However,sofar,thishasbeenaveryEuropean/American/Japaneseperspective.

�  WhataretheRawMaterialsCriticaltoSouthAfricaandAfrica?�  BeneficiationvsexportingRawMaterials?�  Water,Phosphates,Cement,Iron&Steel,Glasssand?�  Infrastructuredevelopments

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Which CRM can Africa (potentially) Supply (~2010 Map & talk)

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� Co�  Li� Ta-Nb� PGE� REE�  Sb� W� Ge� Graphite(notonmap)

KamoaandKakulaRecentdiscoveries(2016)disregardedbymanycompaniesduetounfavourablestratigraphy.Theworld’slargestundevelopedhigh-gradecopperdiscovery.TotalIndicatedMineralResource:1387Mt@2.64%Cu

Twiteetal2019JAES

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Twiteetal2019JAES

IvanhoeMineswebsite2019

Electronicvehiclesuse4XasmuchcopperasanICE

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Itisnoteasytomakeaccuratepredic*ons

�  “Ithinkthereisaworldmarketformaybe5computers”ThomasWatson,presidentofIBM,1943

(Valero,2014)

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EV’svstheFuelCell(Li,C,CovsPGE)

�  2018:FuelCellVehiclesinproduction�  ToyotaMirai�  HondaClarity�  HyundaiTucsonFCEV

�  2018:EV’sinproduction�  BolloreBluecar,BMWi3,BTDe6,CheryQQ3EV,ChevroletBolt,

Fiat500e,FordFocusElectric,JACJ3EV,KD5011,KiaSoulEV,LadaEllada,MitsubishiIMiEV,NissanLeaf,OpelAmpera-e,RenaultZoe,RoeweE50,TeslaModelS,TeslaModelX,TeslaModel3,VWe-Up!,VWe-Golf,WheegoWhipLiFe

EV’s23,FuelCell3Nex2019

Moreplatinumisusedincatalyticconvertorsfordieselvehiclesthanpalladium.Thereductionindieselvehiclemanufacturingwilldefinitelyfurtheraffecttheplatinumpriceandtheplatinumindustry

ConsequencesforSouthAfrica

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BBCheadline:28thMarch2019“HowhydrogenistransformingthesetinyScottishislands”

Wind

Water

Surplusenergyfromwindandwaterisusedtogeneratehydrogenbysplittingwater.Hydrogenstoredascompressedgas,thenusedtopowerfuelcells,invehiclesandbuildingsasrequired.PGEdemisemaynotgoingtohappenwww.surfnturf.org.ukNex2019

BaPeriesofthefuture?

VisualCapitalist2017

PossiblyalsoVanadiumbatteriesNex2019

�  4thIndustrialRevolution�  ArtificialIntelligence�  Theinternetofthings�  Digitization�  Afundamentalchangeinthewaywedothings�  DisruptiveTechnology

�  CarbonFreeorLow-carbonEconomy�  ElectronicVehicles�  RenewableEnergySources�  Fuel-cellEnergy

Whichoftheseismoreimportant?

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Renewableenergywillrequiremorerawmaterials,notless–atleastintheshortandmediumterm.

Vidaletal2017

Currentmisconcep*ons.�  “The4thindustrialrevolutionricksrunningoutofsteambecauseofashortageoftheessentialelementsneededtorunit.”(Jezard2017WorldEconomicForum)

� The4thindustrialrevolutionwillreduceminingactivity

� Thereareshortagesofmineralsrequiredtoprovideelementsfor21stCentury“civilised”life.

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Autonomousvehicles:mining(RioTinto)isaheadofthecurve:

July2018280kmjourney28,000tofironorenodriverControlledbyanoperationscentre1,500kmawayTrainlength2.4km

Theworld’sfirstfullyautonomous,longdistance,heavy-haulrailnetwork

InformationandpicturefromRioTintowebsite

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IsSouthAfricareadyforautonomousvehicles?Education,Education,Education,

BMW and Daimler, two giants in the automobile sector, are pooling their resources in a joint mobility effort that spans autonomous cars, ride-hailing, electric scooters, car-sharing, and electric car charging. The two companies announced on Friday that their intention is to spend $1.13 billion on the venture, an eye-popping sum designed to make the rest of the industry sit up and take notice.https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/22/18235941/daimler-bmw-mobility-joint-venture-billion-dollars22ndFebruary2019Isitaco-incidencethatthepotentiallackofREEcausedtremorsinthecarindustry–perhapstheydon’twanttobecaughtinanuncertainfutureagain.

DisruptiveTechnology

The4thIndustrialRevolutionBuzzwordsorReality–whoisgoingtogamble?

Howmanyofyouwillownavehiclein50yearstime?

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