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January 8-9, 2013 Online, global, live www.valueconferences.com Paul Lountzis President, Lountzis Asset Management

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Page 1: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

January 8-9, 2013

Online, global, livewww.valueconferences.com

Paul LountzisPresident, Lountzis Asset Management

Page 2: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 2

BEST IDEAS CONFERENCE 2013

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

60 Commerce Drive

Wyomissing, PA 19610

www.lountzis.com

Page 3: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 3

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

• INVESTMENT THESIS

• COMPANY BACKGROUND

• BUSINESSSES– UNITEDHEALTHCARE

• EMPLOYER AND INDIVIDUAL

• COMMUNITY AND STATE

• MEDICARE AND RETIREMENT

– OPTUM• HEALTH

• INSIGHT

• RX

• INDUSTRY DYNAMICS

• HEALTHCARE REFORM

• FINANCIALS

Page 4: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 4

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

INVESTMENT THESIS-BUSINESSES

• BROADLY DIVERSIFIED HEALTHCARE PROVIDER

– GEOGRAPHICALLY

• 50 STATES AND 17 COUNTRIES

– BUSINESS SEGMENTS

• #1 MEDICARE ADVANTAGE

• #1 MEDICARE SUPPLEMENT

• #1 MEDICAID

• #2 COMMERCIAL

• OPTUM REPRESENTS A HIDDEN GEM

– HEALTH

– INSIGHT

– RX

Page 5: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 5

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

INVESTMENT THESIS-MANAGEMENT

• BEST CORPORTE LEADERSHIP– OPERATIONALLY

– CAPITAL ALLOCATION

• MOST INNOVATIVE AND ADAPTABLE COMPANY IN THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY– HISTORICAL INDUSTRY LEADER

• PRODUCTS

• SERVICES

• TECHNOLOGY AND DATA DRIVEN CULTURE – OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCIES

• REDUCE COSTS

– OUTCOMES BASED FUTURE

• BEST SUITED TO DEAL WITH KEY INDUSTRY ISSUES– ACCESS

– COST

– QUALITY

Page 6: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 6

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

INVESTMENT THESIS-VALUATION

• STOCK PRICE $52 MARKET CAPITALIZATION $53B

• SELLING AT LOW MULTIPLE DUE TO– UNCERTAINTY OVER HEALTHCARE REFORM

• RISING COSTS OFFSETTING INCREASE IN CUSTOMERS

• LOWER REIMBURSEMENTS

• TRADING AT – 9.8 X 2012 EPS

– 9 X 2013 PROJECTED EPS

– 8.5 X 2013 PROJECTED FCF

• NEXT FEW YEARS– REVENUE GROWTH OF 6-9%

– EPS GROWTH OF 12-14%

Page 7: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 7

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

INVESTMENT THESIS-VALUATION

Page 8: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 8

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

INVESTMENT THESIS-VALUATION

• OPTUM

– DOUBLING PROFITS BY 2015 TO $2.5B

– HIGHEST MARGINS

– LEAST REGULATED

– ENHANCES VALUATION

Page 9: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 9

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

INVESTMENT THESIS

Page 10: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 10

UNITED HEALTH GROUP

BACKGROUND

• FOUNDED IN 1977

• PUBLIC IN 1984

• LEADING DIVERSIFIED HEALTHCARE COMPANY

– SERVING 75 MILLION INDIVIDUALS

– ESTIMATED 2012 FINANCIALS

• REVENUES $110B

• OPERATING EARNINGS $9.2B

• NET EARNINGS $5.5B

• MARKET CAPITALIZATION $54B

Page 11: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 11

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

COMPETITIVE STRENGTHS

• UNIQUE CORPORATE CULTURE IDENTIFIES HEALTHCARE

NEEDS AND BUILDS BUSINESSES AROUND THEM

– FLEXIBLE AND ADAPTIVE

• VISIONARY LEADERS

• OUTSTANDING OPERATORS

• INNOVATIVE CREATORS OF A BROAD ARRAY OF PRODUCTS

AND SERVICES

• TECHNOLOGY AND DATA FOCUSED

– ACCESS

– COST

– QUALITY

Page 12: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 12

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

COMPETITIVE STRENGTHS

• DIVERSIFIED GEOGRAPHICALLY AND BY BUSINESS

SEGMENTS WITH LEADING MARKET SHARES

– #1 MEDICARE ADVANTAGE

– #1 MEDICAID

– #1 MEDICARE SUPPLEMENT

– #2 COMMERCIAL

• OPTUM BUSINESSES OFFER ADDITIONAL DIVERSITY,

EXCELLENT GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES AND HIGHEST

MARGINS

• ABILITY TO LEVERAGE COSTS WITH SUPERIOR

TECHNOLOGY, INFORMATION AND SCALE

Page 13: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 13

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

BUSINESSES

• UNITEDHEALTHCARE (HEALTH BENEFITS)

– EMPLOYER AND INDIVIDUAL

– COMMUNITY AND STATE

– MEDICARE AND RETIREMENT

– MILITARY AND VETERANS

• OPTUM (HEALTH SERVICES)

– OPTUMHEALTH

– OPTUMINSIGHT

– OPTUMRX

Page 14: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 14

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

UNITEDHEALTHCARE BUSINESSES

Page 15: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 15

UNITEDHEALTHCARE

EMPLOYER AND INDIVIDUAL

• COMPREHENSIVE OFFERING OF HEALTH BENEFITS AND SERVICES FOR

– LARGE NATIONAL EMPLOYERS

– MID-SIZEDEMPLOYERS AND SMALL BUSINESSES

– PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYEES

– INDIVIDUALS

• SERVE 27 MILLION AMERICANS THROUGH FULLY INSURED AND SELF-FUNDED PLANS

• MARKET SIZE

– 172 MILLION PEOPLE

– $890 BILLION IN EXPENDITURES

Page 16: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 16

UNITEDHEALTHCARE

COMMUNITY AND STATE

• LARGEST HEALTH BENEFITS PROVIDER TO STATES SERVING

– THE ECONOMICALLY DISADVANTAGED

– MEDICALLY UNDERSERVED

– INDIVIDUALS LACKING EMPLOYER FUNDED HEALTHCARE

• OPERATING IN 25 STATES

– 3.9 MILLION BENEFICIARIES

• STATE AND PUBLIC PROGRAMS

– COVER MORE THAN 60 MILLION PEOPLE

– ANNUAL EXPENDITURES EXCEED $450 BILLION

Page 17: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 17

UNITEDHEALTHCARE

MEDICARE AND RETIREMENT

• LARGEST HEALTHCARE PROVIDER SERVING THOSE OVER

THE AGE OF 50– COVERING OVER 9 MILLION BENEFICIARIES

• MARKET LEADER– MEDICARE ADVANTAGE

– 2.5 MILLION BENEFICIARIES

• LARGEST MEDICARE SUPPLEMENT BUSINESS – 3.9 MILLION CUSTOMERS

• LARGEST MEDICARE PART D PROVIDER– 4.2 MILLION STAND ALONE CUSTOMERS

• 2013 MEDICARE EXPENDITURES– ESTIMATED AT $600 BILLION

– 3.3 MILLION BECOME ELIGIBLE ANNUALLY

Page 18: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 18

UNITEDHEALTHCARE

MILITARY AND VETERANS

• SERVING 2.7 MILLION MEMBERS OF THE MILITARY

AND THEIR FAMILIES IN 21 WESTERN STATES

– 29% MARKET SHARE

Page 19: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 19

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

OPTUM

Page 20: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 20

OPTUM

OPTUMHEALTH

• SERVES THE PHYSICAL, EMOTIONAL AND FINANCIAL NEEDS OF 60 MILLION INDIVIDUALS

• SOLUTION PROVIDER

– REDUCE COSTS FOR CUSTOMERS

– IMPROVES WORKFORCE PRODUCTIVITY

– ENHANCES PATIENT HEALTH

• 2012 REVENUES

– $8.1 BILLION

– OPERATING EARNINGS $550 MILLION

Page 21: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 21

OPTUM

OPTUMINSIGHT

• HEALTH INFORMATION, TECHNOLOGY, SERVICES AND

CONSULTING COMPANY

• SERVES A BROAD RANGE OF PROVIDERS INCLUDING

– PHYSICIANS

– HOSPITALS

– INTEGRATED DELIVERY NETWORKS

– COMMERCIAL HEALTH PLANS

– GOVERNMENT AGENCIES

– LIFE SCIENCE COMPANIES

• 2012 REVENUES

– $2.9 BILLION

– OPERATING EARNINGS $480 MILLION

Page 22: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 22

OPTUM

OPTUMRX

• PHARMACY BENEFIT SERVICES

– 4 MILLION CUSTOMERS

– 67,00 RETAIL PHARMACIES

– 2 MAIL ORDER FACILITIES

• PROCESS OVER 350 MILLION ADJUSTED RETAIL, MAIL

AND SPECIALTY DRUG PRESCRIPTIONS

• INTEGRATING THE MEDCO BUSINESS

• 2012 REVENUES

– $18.4 BILLION

– OPERATING EARNINGS $380 MILLION

Page 23: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 23

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

OPTUM

Page 24: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 24

INDUSTRY MARKET SEGMENTS

Page 25: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 25

UNITED HEALTHGROUP

MARKET SHARES

Page 26: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 26

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

MARKET DYNAMICS

• ACCESS

– EXPAND COVERAGE TO 40-45 MILLION UNINSURED

– BROADEN COVERAGES

• COST

– REDUCE OPERATING COSTS THROUGHOUT SYSTEM

– INTEGRATED DELIVERY NETWORKS

• QUALITY

– PATIENT OUTCOMES DRIVEN PAYMENT MODEL

– IMPROVE PATIENT HEALTHCARE

• REDUCE COSTS

Page 27: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 27

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

MARKET DYNAMICS

Page 28: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 28

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

MARKET DYNAMICS

• INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION OF PROVIDERS

– HOSPITALS

– PHYSICIANS

– PAYORS

• INTEGRATED DELIVERY NETWORK MODEL

– DRIVE SCALE

– CREATE EFFICIENCIES

– IMPROVE PRODUCTIVITY

Page 29: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 29

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

HEALTHCARE REFORM

Page 30: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 30

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

HEALTHCARE REFORM

Page 31: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 31

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

HEALTHCARE REFORM

Page 32: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 32

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

HEALTHCARE REFORM

Page 33: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 33

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

HEALTHCARE REFORM

Page 34: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 34

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

HEALTHCARE REFORM

Page 35: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 35

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

HEALTHCARE REFORM

• MEDICARE

Page 36: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 36

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

HEALTHCARE REFORM

Page 37: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 37

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

HEALTHCARE REFORM

MEDICAID

Page 38: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 38

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

HEALTHCARE REFORM

• MEDICAID

Page 39: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 39

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

HEALTHCARE REFORM

Page 40: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 40

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

Page 41: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 41

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

Page 42: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 42

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

Page 43: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 43

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

Page 44: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 44

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

Page 45: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 45

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

Page 46: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 46

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

Page 47: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 47

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

Page 48: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 48

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

Page 49: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 49

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

2009-2012 FINANCIALS

Page 50: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 50

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

Page 51: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 51

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

Page 52: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 52

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

2009-2013 ENROLLMENT & MARKET SHARE

Page 53: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 53

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

Page 54: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 54

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

Page 55: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 55

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

Page 56: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 56

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

Page 57: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 57

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

Page 58: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 58

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

Page 59: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 59

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

Page 60: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 60

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

AMIL ACQUISITION

Page 61: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 61

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

Page 62: Paul Lountzis - Ivey Business School · january 2013 3 presentation outline • investment thesis • company background • businessses – unitedhealthcare • employer and individual

JANUARY 2013 62

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP

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JANUARY 2013 63

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP