paul j. hebert and staff, nhc
TRANSCRIPT
NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS NHC 4
'.
ANNVAL DATA AND VERIFICATION TABULATION
ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES 1976
Paul J. Hebert and Staff, NHC
National Hurricane CenterMiami, FloridaMay 1977
927
UNITED STATESDEPARTMENT OF COMMERCEJuanita M. Kreps. Secretary
/ NATIONAL OCEANIC AND / N~tlOnJI Weather
ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Ser,.ce
Robert Y. White. AdminIstrator Ceoree P Clessman. Director
INTRODUCTION
This is the third report of an annual series prepared by the National
Hurricane Center (NHC) to provide a source of summarized data on Atlantic
It will not duplicate the narrative overview of thetropical cyclones.
hurricane season and the description of the individual storms, which will
continue to be published in the Monthly Weather Review.
In addition to data supplied by the National Weather Service, materials
have been furnished by the NOAA National Environmental Satellite Services (NESS)
Miami office, and the CARCAH (Chief Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination, all
Hurricanes).
OBJECTIVE FORECAST TECHNIQUES
The follo~ing tropical cyclo~e prediction models were used at the National
Hurricane Center for forecasting moJlon on an operational basis:
A stepwise screening regressionNHC-67 (Miller, Hill, Chase, 1968).
1.
model using predictors derived from the current and 24-hour old 1000,
700,
and 500 rob data, and includes persistence during the early fore-
cast periods.
A filtered barotropic model usin~SAN BAR (Sanders and Burpee, 1968).
2.
input data derived from the 1000 to 100 mb pressure weighted winds.
.The model requires the use of "bogus" data in data-void areas. The
system was modified by Pike, (1972) so that the initial wind fie1ri
near the storm would conform to the current storm motion.
An analog system using as a dataHURRAN (Hope and Neumann, 1970).3.base the tracks of all Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes dating
back to 1886
Stepwise multiple screening regression usingCLIPER (Neumann, 1972).
4.
the predictors derived from climatology and persistence.
A modified stepwise multipleNHC-Z2 (Neumann. Hope. Miller. I972).
5.
screening regression system wh~ch combines the NHC-67 concept and
the CLIPER system into a single model.
Similar in concept to the NHC-NHC-r3 (Neumann and Lawrence, 1973).6.72 except it also uses the "perfect prog" and Mas (model output statis-
tics) methods to introduce NMC (National Meteorological Center) numer-
ical prognostic data into the prediction equations.
A ten-level baroclinic model which~c MFM MODEL (Hovermale, 1975).7
uses a moving fine mesh (MFM) grid nested within the coarser NMC fixed
It is capable of predicting bothgrid primitive equation (PE) model.
track and intensity changes.
The National Hurricane Center uses the above models as guidance in the
The hurricane forecaster also makes extensive useformulation of its forecasts.
of analyses and prognoses produced by NMC and RCTM (Regional Center for Tropical
Meteorology) in Miami.
VERIFICATION
Verification statistics for the 1976 season are shown in Table 1 (Pelissier,
The initial position error in Table 1 is the difference between the
1975).
operational initial position and that determined during post analysis (best tra~k
The forecast displacement error is the vector difference between the
position).
forecast displacement and the actual displacement computed from best-trackpositions.
The la~dfall prediction error for the official forecasts is given
It is defined as the distance from the predicted landfall point.in Table 2.
made 24 hours prior to actual landfall, to the actual landfall point. In cases
where a storm either crossed an island or made landfall when predicted to remain
offshore,
the error was designated as the distance from the landfall point to
the nearest point on the forecast track.
2
A summary of 1976 North Atlantic tropical cyclone statistics is given
in Table 3. Tracks of 1976 named storms are shown in Figure 1
The best track. initial. and forecast positions for 1976 named storms
are in Table 4, along with initial position and forecast errors.
Table 5 lists all center fix positions and intensity evaluations used
operationally at the National Hurricane Center during 1976. Fixes are in~I
chronological order, and include those obtained by aerial reconnaissance
penetrations and radar, satellite (Miami SFSS), and land-based radar.
Table 6 is an aerial reconnaissance summary for the 1976 season.
A number of vortex projiles constructed from data obtained by aerial
reconnaissance are shown in 'Figure 2. These profiles show win9s, temperatures,
dew-P?ints, D-values, and weather in the four quadrants of the storms at speci-
fied distances from the center out to 80 n.mi. They are produced operationally
.-The plotting model along with a diagram of theon the NHC Varian computer.
paths flown in obtaining the vortex profiles is given in Figure 3.
Graphs of the lowest central pressure vs. time for 1976 tropical cyclones
are in Figure 4
Daily SMS-1 satellite photographs of 1976 named tropical cyclones are in
Figure 5.
Selected radar photographs of Belle are in Figure 6.
3
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Ms. Dorothy Mixon and Ms. Wanda Lund, whoMain contributers were:
listed the center fixes in chronological order; Ms. Mary Watson, who did
the pressure-time graphs; Ms. Lilias Wilson, who typed the tables and
manuscript;
Dr. Joseph Pelissier, who computed the verification statistics;~
the NHC Data Automation Section, which furnished the vortex profiles; and
James Eskdale, who composited the satellite and radar photographs.
"
4
REFERENCES
Hope, J. R. and C. J. Neumann, 1970: "An Operational Technique forRelating the Movement of Existing Tropical Cyclones to P~stTracks," Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 98, No. 23, pp. 925-933.
Hovermale, J. B. 1975: First season storm movement characteristics ofthe NMC objective hurricane forecast model. Minutes of the NOAAHurricane Warning Conference, National Hurricane Center, CoralGables, Florida.
Miller, B. I., E. C. Hill and P. P. Chase, 1968: "Revised Techniquefor Forecasting Hurricane Motion by Statistical Methods, "MonthlyWea~her Rev_!ew. Vol. 96, No.8, pp. 540-548
Neumann, C. J., 1972: "An Alternate to the HURRAN Tropical CycloneForecast System", ~ Technical Memorandum NWS SR-62, 24 pp.
J. R. Hope and B. I. Miller, 1972: itA Statistical Method ofCombining Synoptic and Empirical Tropical Cyclone ~redictionSystems", BQM. Technical Memorandum NWS SR-63, 32 pp.
and M. B. Lawrence, 1973: "Statistical-Dynamical Prediction ofTropical Cyclone Motion (NHC-73)", ~ Technical Memorandum NWSSR-69, 34 pp.
Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane Track Prediction byAdjustment of the Initial Wind Field", NOAA Technical MemorandumNWS SR-66, 16 pp.
Sanders, F., and R. W. Burpee, 1968: "Experiments in Barotropic Hurri-cane Track Forecasting", Journal2!;.. Applied Meteorology, Vol. 7,No.3, pp. 313-323.
Pelissier.
J. M.. 1975: Minutes of the NOAA Hurricane Warning Conference.National Hurricane Center, Coral Gables, Florida.
...
.~
5
LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES
Tracks of 1976 tropical cyclones.Figure 1..
Vortex profiles, 1976 tropical cyclones.Figure 2.
Data plotting model and flight pattern flown in obtaining
vortex profiles.Figure 3.
Lowest pressure vs. time, 1976 tropical cyclonesFigure 4.
Daily satellite photographs of 1976 tropical storms andhurricanes.Figure 5.
Selected radar photographs of Belle.Figure 6.
Verification of 1976 tropical storm and hurricane forecastsFigures in parenthesis are the number of cases.
Table 1.
Landfall errors of 1976 tropical storms and hurricanesTable 2.
Summary of 1976 tropical cyclone statisticsTable 3.
Best track, initial and forecast positions, initial positionerror and forecast errors for 1976 tropical cyclones.
Table 4.
Center fix positions and intensity evaluations for 1976
tropical cyclones.Table 5.
Aerial Weather Reconnaissance summary for 1976 hurricane
season (Atlantic and Pacific).Table 6.
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PRESENT WEATHERWIND DIRECTIONWIND SPEED
Figure.3. D:1ta plotting model (bottom) and flight pattern fl~ (top)in obtaining vortex profiles.
24
TROP!C.l\l STORM ANNA
20 JULY -1 AUGUST 1976
-
-1010m~-wa: 1000:JU')U')wa:a. 990
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DATE -TIME (GMT)
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6-10 AUGUST 1976
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DATE -TIME (GMT)
Lowest pres~ure vs. timel 197~ tropical cyclones.Figure 4.
25
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Figure 4 continued.
26
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Figure 4 continued.
27
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34
Patuxent River.. Md.August 9, 1976 23302
Patuxent River.. !old.August 9,1976 22152
Cape Hatteras, N.C.August 9, 1976 12302
Cape Hatteras, N.C.August 9.. 1976 11002
Wilmington, N. C.August 9, 1976 10002
Wi1Jnington, N.C.August 9~ 1976 06002
Figure 6. Selected radar photographs of Belle.
35
Table 1. Verification of 1976 tropical storm and hurricane forecasts.
Figures in parenthesis are number of cases.
FORECAST DISPLAC~IENT ERRORS (N.MI.)12 HR 24 HR 48 HR 72 HR
INITIALPOSITION
ERROR (N.MI.)METHOD
127(144)
285(113)
430(85)
OFFICIAL 21(159)
58(159)
531(89)
NHC-67 17(138)
63(138)
136(130)
325(120)
427(93)
20(162)
61(162)
150(146)
309(117)
NHC-72
265(55)
369(45)
NHC-73 18(70)
56(70)
131(66)
554(31)
145(50)
385(41)
HURRAN 19(54)
57(54)
457(94)
20(163)
61(163)
141(147)
323(118)
CLIPER
136(68)
277(56)
399(44)
SANBAR 19(72)
60(72)
Table 2. Landfall errors of 1976 tropical storms and hurricanes.
LANDFALL DAYSTORM NAME FORECAST ERROR
(N .MI.)
..~
Jones Beach, Long Island, NYAugust 10 30Belle
Folly Beach, SC5August 20Dottie
36
Table 3. Summary of 1976 Tropical Cyclone Statistics
MAXIMUMSUSTAINED
WINDS(KT)
LOWESTPRESSURE
(MB)
u.s.DAMAGE
($ MILLION)NO. NAME CLASS DATES DEATHS
1.
ANNA T JULY 28-AUG. 6 40 999
2. BELLE H
AUG.
6 -10 105 957 100 U.S., 5
3. CANDICE H
AUG.
18 -24 80 964
4. DOTTIE T
AUG.
17 -21 45 996 MINOR U.S., 4
AZORES, 681
5.
EMMY H
AUG.
20 -SEPT. 4 90 974
6. FRANCES H AUG. 27 -SEPT. 7 100 963
7. GLORIA H SEPT. 26 -OCT. 4 90 970
8. HOLLY H
OCT.
22 -28 65 990
1DEATHS CAUSED BY PLANE CRASH AT LAJES DURING HEIGHT OF STORM.
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,:tII
LEGEND FOR TABLE 5
Key to fix characteristics
SATELLITE:
* **, visible or infrared,Classification confidence, location and confidence
tempted to vary up or down by ~ T or S number.2 =
3 might vary up or down by 1 T or S number, or more.=
**well defined eye with certain picture registration.1 -
well defined eye with uncertain picture registration.2 =
well defined circulation center with certain picture registration.3 =
well defined circulation center with uncertain picture registration.4 =
PQorly defined circulation center with certain picture registration.5 =
poorly defined circulaflon center with uncertain picture registration.6 =
RECOt-TN11SSANCE:
Navigational Accuracy/Meteorological Accuracy
RADAR :
U.
S. radar station identifiers
HAT = Cape Hatteras, NC
Wilmington,
NC
ORF = Norfolk, VA.ACY = Atlantic City, NJ
NHK = Patuxent River, MD
= New York City, NY
; Daytona Beach, FL
= Charleston, SC
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