paul emrath vp-survey and housing policy research national association of home builders
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Housing Value, Costs, and Measures of Physical Adequacy American Housing Survey User Conference March 8, 2011. Paul Emrath VP-Survey and Housing Policy Research National Association of Home Builders. Housing Value, Costs, and Measures of Physical Adequacy: Motivation. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Housing Value, Costs, and Measures of Physical Adequacy American Housing Survey User Conference March 8, 2011
Paul EmrathVP-Survey and Housing Policy ResearchNational Association of Home Builders
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Housing Value, Costs, and Measures of Physical Adequacy: Motivation
• HUD’s mission includes creating quality affordable homes for all.
• Need to identify units failing a qualify test (avoid sacrificing quality to achieve affordability).
• Need a definition of inadequacy.
• Standard AHS-based definitions exist, indicating physical inadequacy a relatively small problem.
• Many different approaches possible with AHS data & standard definitions have been in place for decades—time to revisit & consider alternatives.
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Housing Value, Costs, and Measures of Physical Adequacy: Strategy
• Use 2009 AHS to develop baseline statistical models that explain value / rent.
• Hypothesis: Inadequacy should have depressing effect on value / rent, controlling for other factors.
• Develop a new definition of inadequacy consistent with the hypothesis.
• Compare new & traditional definitions of inadequacy.
• Use AHS data to look at numbers / characteristics of inadequate units.
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Baseline Model for Value in Owner-Occupied Single-Family Units: Explanatory Variables
• Region crossed with central city/suburb/ non-metro status
(CA metros a separate “Region”) • Size of unit in sq ft crossed with year built • Lot size• # of full bathrooms • # half bathrooms • # of bedrooms • # of dining rooms• # of family rooms• # of other rooms • presence of a basement crossed with
region• Garage or carport • Fireplace • Central air in Midwest & South regions
• Open spaces within 1/2 block• Community recreational facilities• Gated community
• Waterfront property crossed with region• Property not on waterfront, but body of water
within 1/2 block• Buildings with bars on windows within 1/2
block • Abandoned buildings within 1/2 block• Bad roads within 1/2 block• Neighborhood crime within the past year• Neighborhood w smoke, gas, or bad smells• Neighborhood w heavy street noise / traffic• Trash/litter/junk within 1/2 block (metro)• Trash/litter/junk within 1/2 block (non-metro)• Businesses or institutions within 1/2 block
Factories/industrial structures within 1/2 block • Manufactured housing within 1/2 block
(metro)• Manufactured housing within 1/2 block
(non-metro)
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Baseline Model for Rent (Gross Rent minus Fuels) in Multifamily Units: Explanatory Variables
• Region crossed with central city/suburb/ non-metro status
(CA metros a separate “Region”) • Size of unit in sq ft crossed with year built • # of full bathrooms • # half bathrooms • # of bedrooms • # of other rooms • presence full or partial basement crossed
with region• Use of a garage • Working dishwasher in the unit• Working clothes dryer in the unit
• On a floor with access to an elevator• Building with restricted access• Building with 3 floors• Building with 4 to 9 floors• Building with 10 or more floors• 1 floor building with fifty or more units• Community recreational facilities• Waterfront property • Property not on waterfront, but body of water
within 1/2 block• Neighborhood with satisfactory public
transportation• Neighborhood with satisfactory shopping• Trash/litter/junk within 1/2 block (metro)• Trash/litter/junk within 1/2 block (non-metro)
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Inadequacy in the AHS: Traditional Definition of “Moderately Inadequate”
1. At least 3 of the following outside water leaks inside water leaks holes in the floor open cracks in the inside walls or ceilings an area of peeling paint larger than 8 x 11 seeing rats recently
2. More than 2 6-plus hour toilet breakdowns
3. Main heating equipment is unvented room heaters
4. Lack of complete kitchen facilities
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Inadequacy in the AHS: Traditional Definition of “Severely Inadequate”
1. At least 5 of the conditions in 1. on previous slide
2. Less than 2 full bathrooms without hot and cold running water, or without bathtub or shower, or without a flush toilet, or with shared plumbing
3. Respondent reporting being cold for 24+ hours and at least 2 breakdowns of heating equipment lasting longer than 6 hours
4. Respondent reporting that the household does not use electricity
5. Exposed wiring, plus a lack of electrical outlets in every room, plus fuses that have blown more than twice
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Inadequacy in the AHS: Proposed Definition for Single-Family Housing
1. Missing siding
2. Broken windows
3. Holes, cracks, or crumbling in the foundation
4. Sagging roof
5. Holes in the roof
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Inadequacy in the AHS: Proposed Definition for Multifamily Housing
1. Lack of a kitchen sink
2. Lack of a bathroom sink
3. Open cracks in the inside walls, or ceilings
4. A breakdown of the sewage system since the last interview
5. Lack of built-in equipment designed to distribute heat throughout the unit in climates with 4,000 of more heating degree days
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Inadequacy in the AHS: Proposed Definition for Multifamily Housing
5. Lack of built-in equipment if main heating equipment is any of the following:
vented room heaters burning kerosene, gas or oil
unvented room heaters burning kerosene, gas or oil
portable electric heaterscooking stoveno main heating equipment
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Alternate Definitions of Inadequacy in Single-Family Model
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Alternate Definitions of Inadequacy in Multifamily Model
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Number of Housing Units Classified as Inadequate Under Alternative Definitions
Occupied Non-Seasonal Vacant
Single-Family Multifamily Single-Family Multifamily
AHS severely inadequate
991,358 744,606 0 0
1.3% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AHS moderately or severely inadequate
2,727,494 2,607,392 0 0
3.5% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Inadequate under new definition
6,733,007 2,153,890 1,104,633 397,619
8.5% 8.3% 19.4% 8.9%
Total housing units 79,133,307 25,920,344 5,707,567 4,449,398
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Distribution of Housing Units by Year Built
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Before 1940
1940 to 1949
1950 to 1959
1960 to 1969
1970 to 1979
1980 to 1989
1990 to 1999
2000 to 2004
2005 or later
InadequateAll
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Distribution of Housing Units by Geography
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Central City Urban Suburb Rural Suburb Urban NonMetro
Rural NonMetro
InadequateAll
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Housing Cost Burden for Owners of Units Inadequate Under the New Definition
Household Income Under 30% of Income
30-50% of Income
50% of Income or More
Under 30% AMI 769,197 38,605 106,118
30 to 50% AMI 762,509 2,508 0
50 to 80% AMI 976,511 0 0
80 to 120% AMI 1,100,113 0 0
120% AMI or more 1,421,420 0 0
Total 5,029,751 41,113 106,118
AMI = Area Median Family Income
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Housing Cost Burden for Renters of Units Inadequate Under the New Definition
Household Income Under 30% of Income
30-50% of Income
50% of Income or More
Under 30% AMI 1,165,377 55,057 231,845
30 to 50% AMI 805,814 0 0
50 to 80% AMI 752,663 0 0
80 to 120% AMI 428,960 0 0
120% AMI or more 270,198 0 0
Total 3,423,013 55,057 231,845
AMI = Area Median Family Income
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Household Type Distribution
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Married couple with children
Other with children
65+ householder with no children
Other without children
InadequateAll
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Housing Value, Costs, and Measures of Physical Adequacy: Summary
• Models that estimate value / rent developed using AHS.
• New definition of inadequacy proposed that performs better than traditional definition in models.
• More units than previously thought may be inadequate—especially single‐family.
• Inadequate units tend to be old, have disproportionate share of unmarried households with children.
• Many non-seasonal single-family homes are inadequate.
• Many sections of AHS used in this analysis.
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Housing Value, Costs, and Measures of Physical Adequacy: Sections of AHS Used• Sample status, allocation variables (to screen data)• Housing value / costs• Geography / climate• Housing unit characteristics• Neighborhood characteristics• Multifamily building characteristics• Quality indicators• Utilities / heating equipment• Income (household and area)• Household composition• Conclusion:
Many sections of the AHS have practical utility.
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Questions about this presentation?
contact
Paul EmrathVice President
Survey and Housing Policy ResearchNational Association of Home Builders
1-800-368-5242 [email protected]