patrick coronado shahid habib nasa goddard space flight center greenbelt, maryland, usa april 4th,...
TRANSCRIPT
Patrick CoronadoShahid Habib
NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterGreenbelt, Maryland, USA
April 4th, 2011
NASA’s Role in
Direct Broadcast / Direct Readout
NOAA Direct Readout Conference
Contents
• Changing Planet
• Science and Applications
• Implementation Process
• Examples of using Global and Direct Broadcast Data Products
• Summary
Earth System Scienceand Applications
• Climate and weather variability can produce year-to-year swings in our economy of plus or minus $100 billion1
• Approximately 90% of presidentially declared disasters in the United States are weather-related1
• Weather affects aviation, air quality, health, ground and marine transportation, defense, agriculture, fisheries, water, energy, construction, tourism, and many other sectors of the economy – and most of these issues are regional.
• Our success depends on our ability to provide decision makers with reliable and convincing information.
1Data from “Satellite Observations of the Earth’s Environment. Accelerating the Transition of Research to Operations, NRC report, 2003
Increasing Carbon Dioxide
Malinkovich cycle attributed to Earth’s orbital anomalies
5 warmest years: 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004, 20055 warmest years: 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005
Measured Surface Temperature the past 150 yearsMeasured Surface Temperature the past 150 years
Every year we pump more than six billion tones of carbon emissions into the air from burning fossil fuel, despite a general consensus that this contributes directly to climate change.
Global Temperature VariabilitySir N. Stern report compares fossil-fuel Based / Climate-Friendly
Scenarios
Time to develop new technologies
Time for capital stock turnover
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns,
MT
C
+ 3º to 5º CFOSSIL FUEL SCENARIO
+ 1º to 2.5º CCLIMATE FRIENDLY SCENARIO
Temp increase by 2100
Ref: Dr. Maryvonne Plessis-Fraissard Ref: Dr. Maryvonne Plessis-Fraissard World Bank World Bank
Reference: IPCC February 2007 and BBC
• It is very likely that human activities are causing global warming– Probable temperature rise
by the end of the century will be between 1.8C and 4C (3.2 - 7.2F)
– Possible temperature rise by the end of the century ranges between 1.1C and 6.4C (2 - 11.5F)
• Sea levels are likely to rise by 28.43cm
• Arctic summer sea ice is likely to disappear in second half of the century
• It is very likely that parts of the world will see an increase in the number of heat waves
• Climate change is likely to lead to increased intensity of tropical storms
IPCC Report
Natural Disasters
Public HealthClimate
Water Managemen
t
Weather
Ecosystems
Agriculture
Air Quality
Earth Science and Applications Themes
•Water and Energy Cycle•Atmospheric Composition•Carbon Cycle and Ecosystem•Climate Variability and Change•Weather•Earth Surface and Interior
Science Areas
Application Areas
• Understand changing Earth• Learn causes of these
changes• Response to such changes• Impact of such changes• Predict such changes ???
Unknowns
Occurrence of Floods
Contaminated Fresh Water
Supply
Spread of Multiple
Infectious Diseases
Volcanic Eruption
Aerosol and Dust deposition and suspension
Breathing problems
Do we have a choice? A tangled web
Air Quality
Public Health
Earthquake/Tsunami
FiresSevere
Weather Electric Grid
Outages Shutdown CityAnthropogenic or
Technological
Agriculture Efficiency
Develop technologies to
enable the measurements
Develop technologies to
enable the measurements
Develop algorithms and models to
interpret the results
Develop algorithms and models to
interpret the results
Research, Technology & Application Process
Reformulate scientific questions Readjust research priorities
Refine measurement requirements
Reformulate scientific questions Readjust research priorities
Refine measurement requirements
Improve Understanding, Increase Prediction
Capabilities and apply for societal benefits
Improve Understanding, Increase Prediction
Capabilities and apply for societal benefits
Develop scientific questionsDefine geophysical variables to
be measured
Develop scientific questionsDefine geophysical variables to
be measured
Res
earc
h L
oo
p
Landsat-7
Terra Aqua
TRMMAura
QuikScat
End User/Decision
Maker
MODELS
Remote Sensing Missions
Applied Research Domain
Science and Research Products
User Specific Operational Products
GMAO Atmosphere
GSFC GOCART
GISS Model III
Ben
efits
Push Pull
Research to Application – R2A
Partnership
Earth Science Applications - Partnerships
• We partner with operational end users to adapt or adopt and demonstrate NASA research results for societal benefits
NOAA International Red CrossDHS BoR
DoD Chesapeake Bay ProgramEPA EPRIUSAID World Bank
USFS GEOSeveral International Organizations
Public agencies and organizations that have the mandate to serve the public through resource management, environmentally-related predictions and decision making
Information KnowledgeReception of intelligence
Understanding of a science, art or technique
Models
Archived global observations or data sets provide necessary
• In situ data• Airborne data• Historical data• Near Real Time Local
observations (if available)
Region of InterestMeso-sacle models
Regional Observations
Boundary Conditions
Problem Solving
Develop Solutions
Observations Research Driven
We make use of several sensors – Sensor Web
•Terra
•Aqua
•Aura
•TRMM
•LandSat
•EO-1
•GRACE
•ACE
•SOHO
Malaria
Rift Valley Fever
Food Security
River Forecasting
Floods/Land Slides
Air Quality
Plume Trajectory
Ground Circulating Currents
…..
……
Earthquake precursor
Transcontinental Dust Storms
Taklamakan Desert, China
Beijing, China
TOMS Aerosol Index - time series
“2001 Perfect Dust Storm”
Asian Dust & microbes? Long Range Transport Source Regions
Dust Front
AIR NOW– Adapting MODIS Aerosol Data
NASA-LaRC/USEPA Air QualityApplications Group
Relate MODIS AODobservations (red dots)to EPA ground station PMmeasurements (black time series)
Evaluate current EPA observational network (posts) as to its ability to show regional aerosol
Using MODIS DB for regional air quality assessment
Finding correlation between MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOD) and EPA ground based measurements
Remer/GSFC
South Africa’s Fire Early Warning System
NASA’s Terraand Aqua
Direct BroadcastReceiving StationSatellite Application Centre (SAC)South Africa
GeoDatabase
Advanced Fire Information System
(AFIS) http://wamis.co.za
Rapid Response SystemSAC(CSIR)
MODIS Fire-Algorithm
ESA’sMSG
Direct BroadcastReceiving StationNational Weather ServiceSouth Africa
Weather Service, South Africa MSG Fire-Algorithm (Philip Frost)
Active Fire Locations(Text files)
University of Maryland
SAC
GeoDatabase Web Fire Mapper
(http://maps.geog.umd.edu)
Real-time feed
Web Fire Mapper maps.geog.umd.edu
Rapid Response SystemSMS/Text messages
ESKOMESKOM
Disaster Management Unit
Disaster Management Unit
Weather ServiceWeather Service
Forest DepartmentForest Department
E-mail Alerts
End users
Polar Orbit
Geostationary
2-Year Prediction of Malaria Cases Based on Environmental Parameters (temperature, precipitation, humidity, vegetation index)
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Num
ber
of P
f & P
v C
ases
1251007550250Month Number
Pf casesTemperature (deg C) x 100Rainfall (mm) x 5 + 1000
Tak
Satellite Vegetation Data used for
Insecticide Planning
Mekong Malaria in Tak, Thailand
• Vector Habitat • Transmission • Risk Prediction
• Surface Hydrology • Climate Prediction
Field data
Aqua
TRMM
TerraLandsat
Kiang/GSFC
• Increased frequency of harmful algal blooms or HABs is documented worldwide
• Primary goal of current research: Detect these phenomena and determine potential linkages to human activities, such as enhanced nutrient inputs in coastal waters
Detection of Harmful Algal BloomsDetection of Harmful Algal Blooms
Steven E. Lohrenz (Univ. of Southern Miss.)
Red Tide Bloom off West Florida
SeaWiFS Satellite Image Showing Drifter Track During HAB Event
Summary
• We must conduct Science for Society -- Applications• Majority of the societal problems are regional in nature• Source or cause may be far from the area under study• Both long term data sets play a vital role in establishing boundary
conditions• Direct Readout offers an excellent source for investigating regional or
meso-scale problems• Direct Readout provides a great opportunity to many nations where large
space investments may not be easily achievable• It is an essential capability for World community to build capacity and
apply space observations for societal benefits