NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Pathway Analysis: Projected Cost, Lifecycle Energy Use and Emissions of Emerging Hydrogen Technologies

2015 U.S. DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program and Vehicle Technologies Office Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting

Washington, DCTodd Ramsden

June 9, 2015

This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information

SA-036

2

Overview

Timeline• Start: March 2014• Finish: September 2015• 70% Complete

Budget• Total Funding: $130K

• 100% DOE funded

• FY14 Funding: $40K• FY15 Funding: $90K

Barriers Addressed• Stove-piped/siloed analytical

capability (B) • Inconsistent data, assumptions

& guidelines (C)• Insufficient suite of models and

tools (D)

Partners• Alliance Technical Services• U.S. DRIVE Fuel Pathway

Integration Technical Team (FPITT)• Sandia National Laboratory (SNL)

Note: Timeline/completion address only the present pathway analysis; future funding of additional pathway analyses not yet established

Note: Budget addresses only the emerging-technologies pathway analysis; completed future- and current-technologies analyses funded at $310K during FY12-14

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Project Objectives and RelevanceHydrogen Pathways Analysis Project Objectives

Lifecycle evaluation of complete H2 production, delivery & dispensing pathways

• Determine cost, energy use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of H2fuel pathways, deployed in a mature market

• Provide detailed reporting of hydrogen cost and capital costs of complete H2 fuel pathways to support fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs)

• Lifecycle reporting of energy & feedstock usage and GHG emissions

Relevance

RelevanceEvaluate the potential of various hydrogen fuel pathways

• Evaluate the potential of various hydrogen production, delivery, and dispensing configurations to meet DOE’s $4/kg cost target

• Evaluate pathways to understand associated energy use and GHG emissions

Consistent and transparent analysis of hydrogen technologies

• Common modeling platform and assumptions with detailed reporting ofinput parameters and results allows for cross-pathway comparisons

• Helps DOE overcome stove-piped analysis and inconsistent data by providing a modeling framework using published DOE component models

Assist in R&D decisions • Helps assist DOE’s Fuel Cell Technology Office (FCTO) in goal setting and R&D decisions by providing detailed understanding of technologies

• In-depth analysis of pathways provides insight into cost drivers

Industry review and model improvement

• Industry review of input parameters and results helps validate and improve the MSM and the associated component models

• In-depth reviews help determine modeling gaps, inconsistencies & concerns

4

Project Overview

Analysis Framework

• Macro System Model• Design parameters from

the H2 Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) & H2 Prod. Analysis model (H2A)

• GREET (GHG, Regulated Emissions & Energy in Transportation) data

• Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2009 energy & feedstock data

• H2 Analysis Resource Center (HyARC) data

Models & Tools

• Macro-System Model (MSM)

• H2A Production• HDSAM• GREET 1 fuel cycle• GREET 2 vehicle

cycle• Vehicle Cost Per

Mile tool

Studies & Analysis

Cost, Energy Use & Emissions of H2Production & Delivery Pathways

• Hydrogen cost• Lifecycle energy &

emissions analysis• Lifecycle vehicle

cost

Outputs & Deliverables

• Pathway Reports• Pathway input &

output spreadsheets

Detailed understanding of H2 production & delivery pathways

System for documenting assumptions & data for well-to-wheels analysis of hydrogen pathways

National LabsNREL – MSM & H2A

Argonne – GREET/HDSAMSNL - MSM

CollaborationAlliance Technical

ServicesUS DRIVE FPITT

NREL, DOE Fuel Cell Technologies Office & US DRIVE Reviews

Lifecycle Energy Emission, & Cost Analysis of H2 Production, Delivery & Dispensing Pathways

Approach

5

Key Input Parameters & AssumptionsThe Macro-System Model (MSM) is being used to link H2A, HDSAM, GREET1,

GREET2, and the Cost-Per-Mile tool and as the I/O interface

Modeling Assumptions

• Future technologies for H2 production, delivery and dispensing

• Urban demand area, 1.25 million population (nominally Indianapolis)

• 15% FCEV penetration• Station size of 1000 kg/d

for delivered hydrogen• Station size of 1330 kg/d

for distributed hydrogen• 62 mi. delivery distance

Analysis Assumptions

• 2025 start-up year• Mature market assumed• 2007$ cost reporting• 40-year analysis period

for central production• 20-year analysis period

for distributed production

• Feedstock & utility costs from the 2009 annual energy outlook (AEO), reflect national averages

• Consider upstream energy

Vehicle Assumptions

• 2020 FCEV purchase• 15,000 miles/yr VMT;

160,000 mile lifetime• Mid-size FCEV modeled

(chassis comparable to conventional vehicle)

• 58 mpgge (miles per gallon gasoline equivalent) on-road fuel economy; sensitivity at 68 mpgge

• Vehicle cost with five-year ownership period

Approach

6

Pathways Analyzed in 2014/2015

Future technology pathways (analysis completed as of 2014 AMR)

Approach

8 future-technology production, delivery & dispensing pathways completed in FY2014; analysis of 4 emerging technology pathways in FY2015

Emerging technology pathways (results reported below)

[ CCS = Carbon capture and sequestration ]

7

Future Technologies Pathway Evaluation CompletedProgress

• Lifecycle cost, energy use and GHG emissions evaluation of 8 future-technology hydrogen production, delivery and dispensing pathways completed in FY 2014 (results presented at 2014 AMR)

• Future-technologies report completed (under review)

• Lifecycle cost energy use and GHG emissions evaluation of 10 current-technologies hydrogen pathways completed in FY 2013

Report on pathways evaluation of future technologies completed (under DOE review); Current technologies report published in 2014 (available on-line)

• Current pathways report published and available on-line at:

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/60528.pdf

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Total Cost Per Mile Results – Vehicle & FuelAccomplishment

H2 fuel costs represent 15-25% of ownership costs for emerging technologies;FCEV depreciation & financing represent ~50% or more of costs

Similar results available for Photo-Electrochemical & Solar Thermo-Chemical H2 pathways

Photo-biological H2 production, with pipeline delivery

Natural Gas SMR w/CCS, with pipeline delivery

Hydrogen Fuel Cost: $0.10/mileTotal Ownership Cost: $0.72/milePreliminary results shown

Hydrogen Fuel Cost: $0.22/mileTotal Ownership Cost: $0.84/mile

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18

Challenges and Barriers

• Cost and lifecycle analysis based on publicly available H2A and HDSAM models, but specific cases for the emerging renewable production pathways are not available in GREET• Preliminary modeling of upstream energy and GHG emissions

conducted, with results based on production electricity usage and GREET factors for these energy types

• Preliminary GHG results for emerging renewable paths shared with DOE and U.S. DRIVE/FPITT

• Recommendation made that Argonne National Lab be funded to develop specific cases for the emerging renewable pathways• Lifecycle assessment of GHG emissions will be revised based on new

GREET cases, once developed

Energy use and GHG emission results are preliminary: No GREET cases.Preliminary GHG results discussed with DOE and U.S. DRIVE

Progress

19

Model Gaps and Concerns Raised

Industry comments on modeling of emerging production technologies:• Contingency costs may be under-estimated considering the low

technology-readiness levels (TRL) of renewable processes analyzed• Need better understanding of the processes modeled and comparison to

similar fuel production processes • e.g., algal processes for non-H2 fuel production

• Total electricity usage and/or necessary grid electricity may be under-estimated (solar-only electricity may be inadequate)

• Land usage may be an important consideration for renewable paths• Overall solar-to-hydrogen efficiency of the process will impact both capital cost and

total land usage requirements

• CCS costs may be underestimated (DOE expected to fund CCS cost review)• Specific cases for the emerging renewable production pathways are not

currently available in GREET

Industry reviewers would like a better understanding of the processes involved for emerging renewable hydrogen production

20

Collaborations & Technology Transfer

Pathway Analysis Collaborators

• U.S. DRIVE Fuel Pathway Integration Technical Team (FPITT)• Review of key assumptions, modeling parameters, analysis

inputs and results• Alliance Technical Services

Core Model Developers (fundedseparately by DOE)

• GREET: Argonne National Laboratory• H2A Production model: NREL• H2A Production case studies: NREL• HDSAM Delivery model: Argonne National Laboratory• MSM: NREL and Sandia National Laboratory• Cost Per Mile tool: Alliance Technical Services

Tech Transfer • Not applicable (analysis activity based on publicly available models, with results made public when finalized)

Collaborations and Acknowledgements:

Technology Transfer Activities:

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22

Project Summary

Project Overview:• Lifecycle assessment of complete hydrogen production, delivery, and

dispensing pathways evaluating cost, energy use & GHG emissions• Assessment conducted with MSM (linking H2A, HDSAM, and GREET)• Evaluation of future-technology pathways completed in FY 2014• FY 2015 analysis focused on emerging-technology pathways: natural gas

reforming with CCS, photo-biological, photo-electrochemical and STCH• Preliminary GHG assessment of renewable paths shared only with DOE & FPITT

Emerging-Technology Pathways:• Current modeling of emerging-technology pathways finds hydrogen costs

exceeding the $4/kg target; further R&D is needed, especially for renewable paths

• H2 fuel costs represent 15-25% of ownership costs for emerging technologies; FCEV purchase costs represent ~50% or more of costs

• Renewable H2 production costs driven by capital and fixed O&M costs

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THANKS!

Questions & Discussion

Current technologies report available at:http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/60528.pdf

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BACK-UP SLIDES

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AcronymsAEO DOE Energy Information Agency’s Annual Energy OutlookCCS Carbon Capture and SequestrationCSD Compression, Storage & DispensingDOE U.S. Department of EnergyFCEV Fuel Cell Electric VehicleFCTO DOE’s Fuel Cell Technologies OfficeFPITT U.S. DRIVE Fuel Pathway Integration Technical TeamGHG Greenhouse GasGREET Greenhouse gas, Regulated Emissions & Energy in Transportation modelH2 HydrogenH2A DOE’s H2A (“hydrogen analysis”) Production modelHEV Hybrid Electric VehicleHDSAM DOE’s Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis ModelHyARC Hydrogen Analysis Resource CenterMPGGE Miles per gallon gasoline equivalentNREL National Renewable Energy LaboratorySNL Sandia National LaboratoryU.S. DRIVE U.S. Driving Research and Innovation for Vehicle Efficiency PartnershipVMT Vehicle Miles TraveledWTW Well-to-Wheels (i.e., fuel-cycle)