No Longer an Internal Issue:

Internal Security, Energy Security & the Changing Dynamics of Terror Organizations

Pathikrit Payne Senior Researcher, Security Watch

India

Energy Security & Conflicts•Conflicts would continue to have significant impact on the issues related to energy security.However the dynamics of the conflicts themselves have been undergoing major tectonic shifts.•In spite of major differences of opinions and unresolved issues, seldom inter-state issues are taking the shape of major conflicts.

Energy Security & ConflictsHowever, on the contrary the reduction in possibilities inter-state conflicts have coincided with rapid increase in the instances and possibilities of disruptions by non state actors

•Such non-state actors, often many of whom have alleged state backing, have been resorting to major terror attacks as well as wreaking havoc as is evident in states like Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Kenya, Libya and Yemen.

The Asian Convergence

On one hand, The geopolitical environment of the world is changing fast. Several incidents and events of the past few years vindicate the emerging primacy and dominance of Continental Asia in the times to come. There is no doubt that the theatre of global economic activities is gradually moving towards Asia.

•Meanwhile, some of the largest energy reservoirs would also continue to be in Asia

•Simultaneously, some of the most violent extremist/terror groups originated and also now have their major presence in the Asian theatre with possibilities of them playing an increasingly disruptive role being more pertinent now than ever before.

The Shifting Pattern of Terror Attacks

•There is also a considerable sophistication in the kind of terror attacks that have been taking place.

•From random terror attacks on military installations, the theatre of terror attacks are shifting towards targeting critical economic infrastructures including critical energy infrastructures.

•Pipelines have often been a favourite target of terror and extremist groups across the world. In the recent past that has been extended to refineries as well.

The Abqaiq Refinery Attack•In February 2006, Saudi security prevented an attempted suicide bomb attack at the Abqaiq petroleum processing facility, after Al-Qaeda leadership called for renewed attacks against the country's economic backbone.

•Abqaiq’s primary function is to remove hydrogen sulphide from crude oil and reduce the vapour pressure, making the crude safer to be shipped in tankers. Abqaiq is the largest such complex in the world and some 75 percent of Saudi Arabia’s oil output passes through the complex.

Oil security analysts have estimated that a serious attack on the facility could halve Saudi exports for up to a year.

Another similar attack was thwarted in June 2006.

The Cano Limon Case

•The 483 mile long Cano Limon Pipeline in Colombia have been bombed 950 times by various extremist groups, FARC being the most prominent of them.

•The pipeline has been bombed so many times and have so many holes in it that Colombians have nicknamed it "the flute."

•Possibility of similar attacks on pipelines carrying gas to Europe and even to Asian countries like India and China cannot be completely ruled out

Pipelines Through Af-Pak Region

Is it a Cano-Limon in the Making?

The Predicament

Therefore , for major oil & gas consuming countries, essentially dependent on import of the same, internal security of the oil & gas producing countries and that of the transit countries /sea routes through which pipelines or tankers pass is a matter of critical importance.

In other words, seamless supply energy from energy exporting countries is not guaranteed even if the energy exporting and the importing nations have no geopolitical tensions between them.

The Predicament •Internal Security of nations continue to be a very sensitive issue and most prefer to avoid external advise or assistance and completely abhor external interventions.

•Can an energy recipient state go ask an international forum to request/assist another state to take care of its internal security because of the impact it has on the former’s energy security?

•What is essentially lacking is an institutional architecture at the multilateral level which would work towards advising and helping nations improve their internal security architecture

UN interventions have rarely helped in improving matters.

The Rise of ISIS- What it Signifies

The Aspiration of a Non State Actor to have its own

State

Present Area of Dominance

Future Plan???

Unlike Al Qaeda and its other affiliates, ISIS is not interested in destroying energy assets.

Instead it has been striving to take over the oil and gas fields and operate them for revenue generation, a striking shift in strategy for a terror organization.

In mid-June. near the northern city of Mosul, the Islamic State had taken over the Najma and Qayara fields, while further south near Tikrit it overran the Himreen and Ajil fields during its two-day sweep through northern Iraq

In early July it was reported that ISIS seized al-Omar oil field, the biggest oil field in Syria's eastern province of Deir al-Zour.

The Difference….

NBC NEWS reported, ‘The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) is believed to be generating a multi-million dollar profit from the illegal trade, Iraqi officials told Reuters. ‘

‘Iraqi officials say that in recent weeks the group has transported oil to be processed by mobile refineries in Syria into low quality gas oil and gasoline, which is then brought back for sale in Mosul. Gas stations in Mosul - a city of 2 million people - are now selling fuel supplied by traders working with ISIS.’ ‘Larger shipments of crude are also said to be sold via smugglers to Turkish traders at vastly discounted prices of around $25 per barrel.’

Some reports estimate that the extent of earning from ISIS is to the tune of $ 1 million a day.

The Terrorist as a Trader ….

Things reached to such a naught that some activities could be seen even in the United Nations Security Council where Russia submitted  draft statement to the Security Council on 28th July that would ban crude oil sales by terrorist organizations in Syria and Iraq, and potentially sanction anyone that does business with them. 

The Terrorist as a Trader….

Russia Today stated, The measure “strongly condemns any engagement in direct or indirect trade of oil from Syria involving terrorist groups, and reiterates that such engagement constitutes financial support for entities designated by the Security Council 1267/1989 Committee as terrorist.“

The statement also calls on all member states to take “necessary measures” to stop “nationals, entities and individuals” from engaging in transactions linked to non-state actors in the oil industry in Syria.

Will UN Act?

Is the World Now Willing to Even Trade

With Violent Non-State Actors?

The Bigger Question….

Competition between Violent Terror Organizations for prominence.

The phoenix like rise of ISIS has eclipsed Al Qaeda, thereby creating a dangerous possibility of Al Qaeda attempting to do something drastic to regain its lost position.

The Bigger Threat