path forward webinar host today’s speaker · 2020 february 2020 march 2020 april 2020 may 2020...

© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape1 ‒

PATH FORWARD WEBINAR HOST

• Launched career in sales & brand management

• Since the late 80s involved in the marketing research and information business

• Very involved with the Marketing community via CMA/ACA/CMDC

• Frequent public speaker, conference moderator & facilitator

• Currently craving a juicy burger & fresh fries from Holy Chucks.

TODAY’S SPEAKER

Steve LevyIpsos Canada

Asad AminVice President, Market Strategy & Understanding

• 20 years of supplier side research experience

• Wealth of expertise in the development & management of large syndicated studies, brand health trackers and advertising creative assessment.

• Most recently spoke at the Restaurants Canada Show Leadership Conference in March 2020.

• A devout foodie, with some of the best restaurant recos in town

The New Foodservice Landscape

THE PATH FORWARD

Asad Amin, Vice President, Market Strategy & Understanding29 April, 2020

© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape

MERCURY ESPRESSO

TROPICALJOE’S

AVLINGBREWERY

POOR ROMEO

ED’S REALSCOOP

3 ‒


RESTAURANTS ARE ON THE EDGE OF A PRECIPICE

Source: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor April 2020

35.6 35.0 34.5 35.838.9

34.736.6 35.2

40.7

36.4 35.0

29.0

22.5

26.2

20.5

15.017.0

Dec 29 -Jan 4

Jan 5-11

Jan 12-18

Jan 19-25

Jan 26 -Feb 1

Feb 2-8

Feb 9-15

Feb 16-22

Feb 23-29

Mar 1-7

Mar 8-14

Mar 15-21

Mar 22-28

Mar 29 -Apr 4

Apr 5 -11

Apr 12 -18

Apr 19 -25

Foodservice Incidence

Mar 12ON School Closures

Mar 13ON + WestLimit Travel

+ Events

Mar 17State of

Emergencies

Mar 23ON + PQ

Close Non-Essential Business

WEEKLY FOODSERVICE INCIDENCE% INDIVIDUALS – TOTAL POPULATION

An ongoing daily tracking of what individual consumers ate and drank sourced from foodservice yesterday.

FSM links consumer needs with consumer behaviour to offer subscribers a 360 degree look at the commercial foodservice experience in Canada.

FAB New Reality Reports

Path Forward Behaviour Tracker

5 ‒ © Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape

Average Annual Counts

36,500 individual completes

46,400 occasions captured

118,600 Menu Items Consumed


MARCH FOODSERVICE DECLINES

Source: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor Mar 2020 vs. YoY

Foodservice Dollars Mar 2020

-47%-$2.6 billion

Foodservice Traffic Mar 2020

-39%-439 million individuals

QUICK SERVICE

-32%FULL

SERVICE

-67%RETAIL & OTHER

-47%

DO

LLAR

% C

HAN

GE

7 ‒

Source: Restaurants Canada Operations Report 2019

4.3%QSR

3.8%FSR


CANADIAN FOODSERVICE PROFIT MARGINS


CONFIDENCE


ALL EYES ARE ON CHINA’S RECOVERY


GLOBAL SEARCH TRENDS FOR ‘RESTAURANT’

Source: Google Trends

0

20

40

60

80

100

4/28/2019 10/23/2019 4/18/2020

CANADA

0

20

40

60

80

100

4/28/2019 10/23/2019 4/18/2020

SOUTH KOREA

0

20

40

60

80

100

4/28/2019 10/23/2019 4/18/2020

CHINA

0

20

40

60

80

100

4/28/2019 10/23/2019 4/18/2020

HONG KONG


NEW ZEALANDERS RUSH FOR FAST FOOD AND COFFEE


WHILE A CONSIDERABLE SHARE OF CANADIANS REMAIN UNDERSTANDABLY CAUTIOUS ABOUT THE FUTURE, IT’S CERTAINLY NOT ALL DOOM AND GLOOM

48% 58%

OPTIMISTICOnce the crisis ends I

will enjoy life more than every

CAUTIOUSOnce the crisis ends I will be more cautious

with my activities

12 ‒

Sources: Ipsos Path Forward COVID-19 Behavior Tracker Wave 2 Apr 14-20, 2020, N=1,000Q. Below are a number of behaviours and attitudes that people could have as a result of the Covid-19 health crisis. For each of the statements below, please indicate whether you agree or disagree. % in Circles Based on Top 2 Box

CONSUMER OPTIMISM SCALE

48% 58%

OPTIMISTICOnce the crisis ends I

will enjoy life more than every

CAUTIOUSOnce the crisis ends I will be more cautious

with my activities

18% 28%

CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTICI will enjoy my life

more than every andwill be more cautious

with my activities moving forward

EXTREMELY OPTIMISTIC

I will enjoy life more than ever and I will

not be more cautious with my activities

EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS

I will be more cautious with my activities and

I will not enjoy life more than ever

30%

13 ‒

WHAT IS YOUR OFF-PREMISE STRATEGY?


62%OFF-PREMISE

38%ON-PREMISE

+9%5 Yr Traffic Share Growth

-9%5 Yr Traffic Share Drop

Source: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor 12ME Feb 2020


THE NEW FOODSERVICE LANDSCAPE

FIRST HALF MARCH 2020SECOND HALF MARCH 2020

45%TAKE OUT

32%DINE IN

19%DRIVE THRU

4%

DELIVERY

50%TAKE OUT

33%DRIVE THRU

9%DELIVERY

8%DINE IN

CHANNEL ORDERED% TRAFFIC – TOTAL FOODSERVICE

Source: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor Mar 2020


SHIFT BACK TO TRADITIONAL ORDERING METHOD


25%

38%

36%41%

29%

30%

15 ‒

FIRST HALF MARCH 2020

SECOND HALF MARCH 2020

OFF PREMISE ORDER METHOD% TRAFFIC – TOTAL FOODSERVICE

TELEPHONE ONLINE MOBILE


18%

8%

27%

17%

22%

9%

18%

8%

24%

18%

25%

7%

Breakfast Morning Snack Lunch Afternoon Snack Dinner Evening Snack

FIRST HALF MARCH 2020

SECOND HALF MARCH 2020

16 ‒

LIMITED CHANGE IN DAYPART DYNAMICS


DAYPART DISTRIBUTION% TRAFFIC – TOTAL FOODSERVICE


Source: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor 12ME Feb 2020

UNIQUE OFF-PREMISE DRIVERSTotal Foodservice

18 ‒

Over-Developed Drivers vs. other Off-Premise OccasionsSource: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor Mar 2020


UNIQUE DRIVERS FOR TAKE OUT

Treat Myself

Satisfies/Fulfills Craving

Convenient Location/Easy Access

Eaten Quickly

Take a Break

Keep Me Going Until Next Meal

Lack of Food at Home

Complete My Meal

SEEK TAKE OUT FOR A TREAT AND A CHANGE FROM THE NORM

CRAVINGQUICK

BREAKNO FOOD


BEYOND ROUTINE, SOCIAL DYNAMIC NOW EXISTS

UNIQUE DRIVERS FOR DRIVE THRUPortable/To GoPicks Me Up/Gets Me Through the DaySatisfies ThirstReliable/Uncomplicated/ConsistentEnergy BoostHelps me Focus/ThinkWanted Something HotWide Variety of BeveragesBond with Family/Close FriendsHelps Relieve BoredomOpen Late/24 Hours

PORTABILITYMENTAL UPLIFT

HABITBEVERAGES

SOCIALOver-Developed Drivers vs. other Off-Premise OccasionsSource: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor Mar 2020


DELIVERY SATISFIES A MULTITUDE OF NEEDS

UNIQUE DRIVERS FOR DELIVERY

Unwind and Relax

Fresh/High Quality/Locally Sourced

Guilty Pleasure

Alleviate Pressure of Cooking/Planning Meal

Menu with Good Value Options

Customize to my Preference

Food I Feel Good about Eating

Relieves Stress/Anxiety

Highly Enjoyable Experience

RELAXQUALITY

PLEASURESTRESS RELIEF

VALUE OFFERCUSTOMIZE

Over-Developed Drivers vs. other Off-Premise OccasionsSource: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor Mar 2020

© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape21 ‒

Entrees

Sides

AppetizersBakery/Dessert

Beverages

TOP GROWING ITEMS

TOP DECLINING ITEMS


© Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape22 ‒ © Ipsos | The Path Forward - The New Foodservice Landscape

32%CANNABISC

onsu

min

g M

ore

32%ALCOHOLC

onsu

min

g M

ore

Sources: Ipsos Path Forward COVID-19 Behavior Tracker Wave 2 Apr 14-20, 2020, N=1,000


WHAT IS THE PATH FORWARD IN THE CURRENT FOODSERVICE LANDSCAPE?


TOTAL FOODSERVICE SALES FORECAST

24 ‒

SCENARIO 1: AN L-CURVE

Source: Ipsos Foodservice Monitor Forecasting Model Based on Data to Mar 2020

January 2020

February 2020

March 2020

April 2020

May 2020

June 2020

July 2020

August 2020

September 2020

October 2020

November2020

December2020

Estimate a -44% YoY Contraction

Actual Sales


Actual Sales


25 ‒

SCENARIO 2: A W-CURVE

January 2020

February 2020

March 2020

April 2020

May 2020

June 2020

July 2020

August 2020

September 2020

October 2020

November2020

December2020




Actual Sales


26 ‒

SCENARIO 3: A U-CURVE

January 2020

February 2020

March 2020

April 2020

May 2020

June 2020

July 2020

August 2020

September 2020

October 2020

November2020

December2020




THE PATH FORWARD1. SAFETY

2. VALUE

3. SOCIAL

4. PIVOT

5. COMPASSION

27 ‒

SAFETY

62%Restaurants Taking Precautions


Source: Ipsos Path Forward COVID-19 Behavior Tracker Wave 2 Apr 14-20, 2020, N=1,000


VALUE

24%Dealing



SOCIAL

17%Virtual Happy Hour


Source: Ipsos Path Forward COVID-19 Behavior Tracker Wave 2 Apr 14-20, 2020, N=1,000


PIVOT



COMPASSION



Q&A


Up Next

Hope to see you then

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Lesley Haibach & Brad GriffinCX & UU Leads

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May 14th

path forward webinar host today’s speaker · 2020 february 2020 march 2020 april 2020 may 2020...

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