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© 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

Past to Present: A Visualization of North Carolina’s Hotel Performance Data

Melissa Holm

Business Development Executive, Hotels

[email protected]

© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

About STR


Total U.S. Performance

North Carolina Hotel Industry Overview

Performance by Market

Group & Transient Segmentation

Hotel Pipeline & U.S. Forecast

Agenda


Total U.S. Performance


JULY 2016

RevPAR +2.5%

ADR +3.6%

117 Million Room Nights Sold (most rooms sold ever in a single month)

*Group RevPAR +2.5%

*Transient RevPAR +1.0%

*Luxury & Upper Upscale Classes Only


Total U.S. – Key Statistics July 2016 YTD

% Change

Room Supply 1.06B +1.5%

Room Demand 707M +1.4%

Occupancy 66.4% -0.1%

ADR $123.93 +3.2%

RevPAR $82.32 +3.0%

Room Revenue $87.6B +4.6%

Continued Growth for First Half of 2016


12 Month Moving Average Paints a Similar Picture

+1.4% +1.7%

+0.3%

+3.4% +3.7%

+5.2%

Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR Revenue

Total U.S. – KPIs % Change 12 MMA ending July 2016


Total U.S. – Room Supply / Demand % Change 12 MMA January 1989 to July 2016

4.0%

2.9%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Supply % Change Demand % Change

1.7%

7.8%

-7.1%

Demand Growth Slows as Supply Growth Increases to 1.4%

1.4%


Now 2 Million More Rooms Available Every Month

1.7

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.2 2.1

2.3 2.2

2.3 2.3

2.4

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

August September October November December January February March April May June July

Total U.S. – Supply Change (millions of room nights) by Month August 2015 to July 2016


-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Hu

nd

red

s

Occ % Chg ADR % Chg

-6.7

-4.5

7.5

-9.7

-8.8

6.3

0.3

3.4

Total U.S. – Occupancy/ADR % Change 12 MMA January 1989 to July 2016

Occupancy Growth Rapidly Approaching 0%


Declining Occupancies and Rising ADRs Are Not Unprecedented

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Occ % Change ADR % Change

24 Months

42 Months

Total U.S. – Occupancy/ADR % Change 12 MMA January 1990 to December 2001


North Carolina Performance


1,744 Hotels

150,960 Rooms

78% Sample

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjng9bxyLTOAhXHbiYKHaC8A9MQjRwIBw&url=http://nchouse117.com/water-report/&psig=AFQjCNHotST2v7-OSoZKzNyqr6L7YBzCfA&ust=1470840189828480


$98.45 ADR

+3.8%

$63.94 RevPAR

+5.7%

65% Occupancy

+1.8%

North Carolina – July 2016 YTD

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjng9bxyLTOAhXHbiYKHaC8A9MQjRwIBw&url=http://nchouse117.com/water-report/&psig=AFQjCNHotST2v7-OSoZKzNyqr6L7YBzCfA&ust=1470840189828480


What’s Driving Growth?

+1.6%

+3.2%

+1.6%

+4.2%

+5.9%

+7.5%

Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR Revenue

North Carolina – KPIs % Change 12 MMA ending July 2016


North Carolina’s Demand Growth Holding Steady at 3.2%

2.7%

1.6%

-9.7%

9.6%

3.2%

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Hu

nd

red

s

Supply % Change Demand % Change

North Carolina – Room Supply / Demand % Change 12 MMA January 1989 to July 2016


ADR & Occupancy Growth Relatively Flat This Year

-11.8%

1.9%

8.1%

-5.6%

4.3%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Hu

nd

red

s

Occupancy % Change ADR % Change

North Carolina – Occupancy/ADR % Change 12 MMA January 1989 to July 2016


State ADR has Grown 15% Since Prior Peak in 2008

63.5% $63.01

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Occupancy (%) ADR ($)

$98.03

$84.92

North Carolina – Occupancy/ADR 12 MMA January 2000 to July 2016


40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

North Carolina – Monthly Occupancy January 2012 – July 2016

Continual Occupancy Increases Each Year


$ 104.33

$101.53 $ 102.15

$101.32 $103.45

$70

$75

$80

$85

$90

$95

$100

$105

$110


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

North Carolina – Monthly ADR January 2012 to July 2016

ADR Surpasses $100 for the Fourth Consecutive Month


State RevPAR follows U.S. Trend with Notable Deviations in Recent Years

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Hu

nd

red

s

US RevPAR North Carolina RevPAR

U.S. & North Carolina – RevPAR % Change January 2000 to July 2016


Comparison of Class Segments


Luxury

Fairmont, Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, JW Marriott, St. Regis, InterContinental

Upper Upscale

Hilton, Hyatt, Marriott, Kimpton, Omni, Sheraton, Westin, Wyndham

Upscale

Radisson, Hilton Garden Inn, Residence Inn, Springhill Suites, Homewood Suites, Courtyard, Best Western Premier, Crowne Plaza

Upper Midscale

Fairfield Inn, Holiday Inn, Clarion, Hampton Inn, Best Western Plus, Drury Inn

Midscale

AmericInn, Candlewood Suites, Quality Inn, Ramada, La Quinta

Economy

Extended Stay America, Red Roof Inn, Days Inn, Microtel, Super 8

2016 STR Chain Scales


47% of North Carolina’s Hotels are Midscale & Economy

5%

15%

17%

21%

13%

29%

United States

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy

2% 9%

17%

25% 15%

32%

North Carolina

U.S. & North Carolina – Room Counts by Class


Demand Wavers for Upper Upscale Properties

3.2

4.0

8.0

1.0

-0.4 -0.3

3.8

2.3

8.7

4.0

2.1 1.4


Supply Demand

North Carolina – Supply/Demand % Change by Class July 2016 YTD


Negative Occupancy Growth for Upper Upscale Hotels

64.0 68.4

72.8 67.5

58.4 57.7 64.4

67.3 73.3

69.4

59.9 58.7


2015 2016

+0.6% -1.6% +0.7% +1.7% +2.6% +2.9%

North Carolina – Occupancy & Occupancy % Change by Class July 2016 YTD


RevPAR Still Trending Upwards for All Classes

$139

$103

$89

$67

$45

$32

$141

$105

$92

$72

$48

$33


2015 2016

+1.5% +3.5% +2.1% +6.3% +5.9% +5.9%

North Carolina – RevPAR & RevPAR % Change by Class July 2016 YTD


Performance by Market


Seasonal Markets see a Boost in Occupancy

69.1%

67.2%

58.0%

66.1%

60.4%

74.0%

71.7%

Wilmington, NC

Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, NC

Greensboro/Winston Salem, NC

Fayetteville, NC

Coastal Carolina

Charlotte, NC-SC

Asheville, NC +1.7%

+6.1%

-1.4%

+3.1%

-2.1%

+4.7%

+3.0%

North Carolina Markets – Occupancy & Occupancy % Change July 2016 YTD


Asheville Achieves Highest State ADR and ADR Growth

$104.46

$100.69

$88.53

$73.62

$121.60

$105.66

$135.80

Wilmington, NC



Fayetteville, NC

Coastal Carolina

Charlotte, NC-SC

Asheville, NC +6.8%

+1.6%

+5.1%

+0.2%

+0.5%

-2.2%

+5.0%

North Carolina Markets – ADR & ADR % Change July 2016 YTD


Fayetteville Not Able to Make Up For Occupancy Decline

$72.16

$67.71

$57.37

$48.66

$73.50

$78.18

$97.41

Wilmington, NC



Fayetteville, NC

Coastal Carolina

Charlotte, NC-SC

Asheville, NC +8.6%

+6.4%

+2.8%

+3.3%

-0.9%

+3.8%

+8.1%

North Carolina Markets – RevPAR & RevPAR % Change July 2016 YTD


Asheville & Charlotte Competitive with Regional Markets

13.5%

Myrtle Beach

Norfolk/Virginia Beach

Louisville

Nashville

Savannah

Columbia

Charleston

Wilmington

Richmond/Petersburg

Charlotte

Asheville

0

2

4

6

8

-4 -2 0 2 4 6

AD

R %

Ch

ange

Knoxville/Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge

Occupancy % Change

Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill

Greensboro/Winston Salem

July 2016 YTD


Room Rates Driving RevPAR in Raleigh

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Occupancy ADR RevPAR

Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill – RevPAR % Change by Contribution of Occupancy/ADR % Change August 2015 – July 2015


$66.8M

+0.3%

30

40

50

60

70


Mill

ion

s

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill – Monthly Revenue January 2012 – July 2016

Raleigh is Experiencing Record Monthly Revenues Despite Decreases in Occupancy


Group & Transient Segmentation


GROUP TRANSIENT

3.1% 0.6%

North Carolina – Demand % Change, by Segment July 2016 YTD *Luxury & Upper Upscale Classes Only


North Carolina – Monthly Transient Demand January 2015 to July 2016 *Luxury & Upper Upscale Classes Only

216,627

227,086

160

180

200

220

240

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Th

ou

san

ds

2015 2016

Transient Demand Pacing Ahead YOY


North Carolina – Monthly Group Demand January 2015 to July 2016 *Luxury & Upper Upscale Classes Only

+3.8%

+2.4% +1.8%

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Th

ou

san

ds

2015 2016

Group Demand Outpaces 2015 During Summer Months


Transient Demand Growing Much Faster than Group

North Carolina – Demand by Segment 12 MMA January 2005 – July 2016 *Luxury & Upper Upscale Classes Only

1,402,523

1,482,928

1,899,013

2,484,266

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mill

ion

s

Group Transient


Group Rooms Yet to Recover Since Prior Peak in 2007

80.1%

99.7%

95.9%

130.8%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Group Transient

Transient Peak March 2007

North Carolina – Demand by Segment Indexed by Month 12 MMA March 2007 – July 2016 *Luxury & Upper Upscale Classes Only

Group Peak October 2007

Transient Recovery

March 2010


Transient and Group Mix Continues to Widen

7% 20% 24%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Group Mix Trans Mix

North Carolina – Transient & Group Mix 12 MMA March 2007 – July 2016 *Luxury & Upper Upscale Classes Only


Overall Attendance at Largest Meeting Planned DestinationMAP Results – 2013 vs. 2015

Meetings of 1000+ Attendees are on the Rise

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Less than 300 300-999 1000+

2013 2015


Charlotte Ranks Well Among Top 40 U.S. Meeting Destinations

Meeting Planner’s Perception on Charlotte’s Travel Image 2015 DestinationMAP Results


Hotel Pipeline


In Construction

Vertical construction on the physical building has begun.

(This does not include construction on any sub-grade structures)

Final Planning

Construction will begin within the next 12 months.

Planning

Construction will begin in more than 13 months.

Unconfirmed

Potential projects that remain unconfirmed at this time.

STR Pipeline Phases U

nd

er

Co

ntr

act


Construction Today will Impact 2017 and Beyond

Phase 2016 2015 % Change

In Construction 171 129 33%

Final Planning 197 174 13%

Planning 161 128 27%

Under Contract 529 430 23%

Total U.S. – Pipeline by Phase Room Count in Thousands July 2015 and July 2016


Limited Service Construction has been Strong for 2 Years

7.6

19.6

59.4 55.5

6.4

1.0

22.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Luxury UpperUpscale

Upscale UpperMidscale

Midscale Economy Unaffiliated

67%

Total U.S. – U/C Rooms by Scale Room Count in Thousands July 2016


Top 26 Markets Account for nearly 50% of U/C Rooms

Tho

usa

nd

s

81.7 89.6

79.1

117.6

69.3

92.4

0

50

100

150

Top 26 Markets All Other U.S. Markets

In Construction Final Planning Planning

Total U.S. – Top 26 Markets vs. All Other U.S. Markets Room Count in Thousands July 2016


Total U.S. – U/C Rooms as a Percentage of Existing Supply July 2016

Construction In Top 26 Markets: 18 With 3%+ Of Supply

Market Rooms % of Existing Supply

New York, NY 15,770 14.0%

Denver, CO 4,451 10.1%

Seattle, WA 3,358 7.8%

Nashville, TN 2,822 7.3%

Dallas, TX 5,562 6.9%

Houston, TX 5,381 6.6%

Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA 5,633 5.7%

Minneapolis/St Paul, MN-WI 2,252 5.6%

Miami/Hialeah, FL 2,822 5.3%

Philadelphia, PA-NJ 2,169 4.7%

Tampa/St Petersburg, FL 1,878 4.2%

Boston, MA 2,136 4.0%

Chicago, IL 4,287 3.8%

Anaheim/Santa Ana, CA 2,075 3.6%

New Orleans, LA 1,381 3.5%

Washington, DC-MD-VA 3,612 3.3%

Oahu Island, HI 892 3.1%

Phoenix, AZ 1,862 3.0%


11.5% of Current Supply Under Contract

Phase Projects Rooms % of Supply

In Construction 53 6,212 4.1%

Final Planning 73 8,039 5.3%

Planning 30 3,184 2.1%

Under Contract 156 17,435 11.5%

North Carolina – Pipeline by Phase July 2016


79% of Rooms Under Contract are Upscale or Upper Midscale

0 10 20 30 40 50

Unaffiliated

Economy

Midscale

Upper Midscale

Upscale

Upper Upscale

Luxury

Under Contract Existing Supply

North Carolina – Pipeline Rooms by Scale Room Count in Thousands July 2016


U.S. Forecast


Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year)

Outlook

2016 Forecast

2017 Forecast

Supply 1.7% 1.9%

Demand 2.1% 1.9%

Occupancy 0.4% 0.0%

ADR 4.0% 3.8%

RevPAR 4.4% 3.8%

Questions? Presentation is available for download. To view this presentation, click “STR Data Presentations” from the drop-down menu on www.HotelNewsNow.com.



Thank You!

Melissa Holm

Business Development Executive, Hotels

[email protected]

past to present - north carolina restaurant and lodging ...€¦ · north carolina’s demand...

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