past present and future of fisheries of pulley ridge...osmose (gruss et al) atlantis (ainsworth et...

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Bioeconomics Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge David J. Die

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Page 1: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

Bioeconomics

Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge

David J. Die

Page 2: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

Pulley Ridge/Fl. Keys Ecosystem

SEAFOOD

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES PROVIDED BY REEF SYSTEM

RECREATION

HABITAT/PROTECTION

Page 3: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

Pulley Ridge/Fl. Keys Ecosystem

SEAFOOD

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES PROVIDED BY REEF SYSTEM

Bioeconomicssub-project focused on federally managed commercial fishery for reef fish as the main SEAFOOD producing activity linked to the Pulley Ridge

Page 4: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

Analysis of responses of Commercial

fishing fleets to past management

Economic value of commercial reef fish

fisheries in the Pulley Ridge

Analysis of impacts of future management alternatives on

ecosystem structure and function in the Pulley Ridge

OtherPulley Ridge Subprojects

Page 5: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

Fishery dynamics in response to management changes

• implementation of the Pulley Ridge Habitat Area of Particular Concern in 2005

• reef fish Individual Fishing Quota program in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010

Two analyses:• Areas 1- 6 Florida West Coast• Areas 1-3 Pulley Ridge and vicinity

NMFS Logbook data:LonglineHandline

Analysis of responses of

Commercial fishing fleets to past management

Page 6: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

Responses of fishing fleets to regulation (Florida West Coast):Fishing effort around Pulley Ridge

Whole Fleet

Per vessel

Time period 1 – 2000-2004 Baseline2 – 2005-2009 Post HAPC3 – 2010-2015 Post Catch shares

• Some Changes in fleet-level effort: decline in longline after catch shares,

• Fewer changes at vessel level

HANDLINE

HANDLINE

LONGLINE

LONGLINE

FIH

SNG

EFF

OR

T IN

DEX

Analysis of responses of

Commercial fishing fleets to past management

Page 7: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

LONGLINE FLEET

LONGLINE VESSEL

HANDLINE FLEET

HANDLINE VESSEL

FIH

SNG

EFF

OR

T IN

DEX

Collier Manatee PinellasLee Monroe

Collier Manatee PinellasLee Monroe

Collier Dade Monroe

Collier Dade Monroe

Analysis of responses of

Commercial fishing fleets to past management

Page 8: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

Predictions of changes in fisheries in response to management changes will be driven by the time schedule and spatial scope of the change and will be associated with large uncertainty

• Fishery-wide management actions (Catch shares) lead to large changes in fishery operations and result and possibly major impacts to resources• re-distribution in time and space of fishing effort• increase sustainability of fishery operations• change fishing community (Ports) links to resources

• Impacts of relative small changes in spatial management (HAPC) are difficult to detect and predict• Limitations of available knowledge on resources• Confidentiality provisions of fishery data• Affect individual business decision making

Analysis of responses of

Commercial fishing fleets to past management

Page 9: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

2484

2584

2684

2785 2784

Pulley

Ridge

National Marine Fisheries Service Data Monitoring Areas

NMFS data

obtained

Data credit:

Dr. David Gloeckner, NMFS

Economic value of commercial reef fish

fisheries in the Pulley Ridge

Page 10: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

Average Annual Commercial Catch in the Florida Gulf Coast and Pulley Ridge,

2012-14 ($)

Note: Total Annual Landing is the total landing at each country group docks including the state-controlled area

Economic value of commercial reef fish

fisheries in the Pulley Ridge

Page 11: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

Vertical, long lines and buoy

Number 1 gear type

In Pulley Ridge

Groupers followed by

snappers are the top species

caught

Major Gear Types and Species Caught in Pulley Ridge

Economic value of commercial reef fish

fisheries in the Pulley Ridge

buoy

trolling

Page 12: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

How much income is made in the Pulley Ridge Region?

(Gross profit before netting fixed cost)

Economic value of commercial reef fish

fisheries in the Pulley Ridge

Page 13: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

• Relative impact of partial or full restriction in PR not likely to be significant

• A slightly increased fishing in the neighboring areas

• Neighboring areas already heavily fished

• A primary survey indicates that the fishermen not likely to support the regulation

• Resistance probably rooted in the past regulation experience

Conclusions from the Economic Analysis…

Economic value of commercial reef fish

fisheries in the Pulley Ridge

Page 14: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

OSMOSE(Gruss et al)

ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al)

ECOSPACE(Chagaris et al)Spatial scope

Pulley Ridge Project

Available models do not matchproject scope. New model needed

Ecosystem modelsAnalysis of impacts of future management alternatives on

ecosystem structure and function in the Pulley Ridge

Page 15: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

Northern limitNorthern most part of the extended Pulley Ridge area in alternative 3 of the GOMFMC

Western and southern limit: Shelf break ~ 200m isobath.

Eastern limit70m isobaths in the northern section of the “L”, then FKNMS boundary all the way to Long Key

EWEstudy area

Analysis of impacts of future management alternatives on

ecosystem structure and function in the Pulley Ridge

Partially based on connectivity conclusions from Pulley Ridge project

Page 16: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

Trophic network of “functional groups”

• Describes and quantifies trophic linkages

• Assumes mass-balance of system over given time

• Run from series of linear equations for each functional group

ECOPATH

Analysis of impacts of future management alternatives on

ecosystem structure and function in the Pulley Ridge

Page 17: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

EWEModel

Boundary conditions

Diet matrix

Biomass estimates

ECOSPACE(Chagaris et al)

OSMOSE(Gruss et al)

Pulley RidgeCruises

NOAA NMFSFKNMS surveys

Fishery data

Logbook programMRFSS

Analysis of impacts of future management alternatives on

ecosystem structure and function in the Pulley Ridge

Page 18: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

= High Trophic Level (Pelagic)

Other groupers

Other large reef fish

Other Snappers

Large inv.

Large inv.

Small invert.

Small invert.

Demersal sharks and rays

Large pelagic sharks

Large coastal fish

Seabirds

Small pelagic fish

Sediment detritus

Plankton

Stony coral

Small reef fish

Gag GrouperSponges

Sponges

Stony coral

Blue-lined Snapper

= Low Trophic Level

= High Trophic Level (Reef)

Octocoral

Red Grouper

Red Snapper

Vermillion Snapper

EWE Model for Pulley Ridge-Florida Keys

28 Functional Groups4 fishing fleets Balanced for average 2010-2015

Meiofauna

Sessile epibenthos

Encrusting coralline algae

Fisheries

Analysis of impacts of future management alternatives on

ecosystem structure and function in the Pulley Ridge

Page 19: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

Three alternatives

management scenarios

to be evaluatedwith EWE

Ready to be run and

reported upon

(*) derived from proposals from GOMFMC

(*)

(*) (*)

Analysis of impacts of future management alternatives on

ecosystem structure and function in the Pulley Ridge

Page 20: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMWill provide easy WEB-based access to highlights of project results

Analysis of impacts of future management alternatives on

ecosystem structure and function in the Pulley Ridge

Page 21: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

• Fishery dynamics are strongly influenced by management

• Impacts of relatively small changes in spatial management are difficult to detect at the population/ecosystem level

• Ecosystem models can provide a sense of the degree of disruption of ecosystem linkages in response to management changes

• EWE model of Pulley Ridge/FKNMS is ready to produce evaluation of alternative options

• Value of fishery catch associated to Pulley Ridge is significant and will change in response to spatial changes in management

• Decision support system will allow for easy access to results of evaluation of management options

BIOECONOMICS - OVERALL CONCLUSIONS

Page 22: Past present and future of fisheries of Pulley Ridge...OSMOSE (Gruss et al) ATLANTIS (Ainsworth et al) ECOSPACE Spatial scope (Chagaris et al) Pulley Ridge Project Available models

Chiara Pacini UM (candidate MSc)

Emily StarnesUM (MSc 2017)

Alexandra NorelliUM (candidate MPS)

MahadevBhat

Chris Mader

Acknowledgements

Tim Norris Julio Perez

Nadia Seeteram