passive building, carbon and climate
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Passive Building, Carbon and ClimateTRANSCRIPT
Passive building, Carbon, & Climate
Sean Penrith Execu:ve Director The Climate Trust
8th Annual North American Passive House Conference
October 17, 2013 PiHsburgh, Pennsylvania
The Climate Trust • Established in 1997 • Manage over $20M of carbon funding • Operate in 10 diverse project sectors • Projects in nine states and two countries • Compliance program examples – OR, WA, MT, MA, CA
• Voluntary program examples – NW Natural Smart Energy – Colorado Carbon Fund Mission: To provide exper:se,
financing, and inspira:on to accelerate innova:ve climate solu:ons
that endure
• Carbon Management – Expand investment in project types an:cipated
in policies – Pilot new methodologies – Effec:vely aggregate projects – Remove upfront financing and other barriers – Develop compliance porWolios for u:li:es
• Climate Services – Design, finance and implement climate ac:on
plans – Assist with project developer finance – Act as a Buyer’s Agent for CSR firms
• Policies & Standards – Share tangible lessons learned and experience
to help improve policies, rulemaking, & standards
Carbon Management
Policies & Standards
Climate Services
What we do…..
Human induced global warming has emerged as the defining challenge of the 21st century.
For the first ?me in 3 million years
May 9, 2013: Concentra:on of carbon dioxide in earth’s atmosphere crossed the 400 parts per million threshold
Mauna Loa monitoring sta:on , HI
Climate Change
• Currently net energy uptake by earth causes heat energy storage and rising global temperatures
• 90% of this excess heat is stored in oceans
• 30% of CO2 absorbed by oceans
Implica?ons of stress nexus
o Economic & demographic power shibing to emerging markets
o Energy & fuel – increased demand & supply uncertainty
o Water demand es:mated to exceed supply by 40% in 2030
o Popula:on will be 8.4 billion by 2032 impac:ng resources
o Urban areas will house more people than rural areas by 2030 impac:ng infrastructure & resources;
o Food prices to increase 70% -‐ 90% by 2030, affected by popula:on growth, water scarcity, & deforesta:on
AR5 • 830 expert
authors • 85 countries • Meteorology • Physics • Ecology • Engineering • Social sciences • Economics • Oceanography • Sta:s:cs
Conclusion: To achieve a 66% chance of limi:ng warming to 2°C, emissions need to be capped at 1,000 gigatons (measured from start of industrial age)
We had emiFed half of this already by 2011
Extent of ice and snow decreasing, and a nearly ice-‐free Arc:c in summer by 2050;
Weather is changing
Current rate of emissions are projected to cause rise 2.6 – 4.8 °C globally & sea level rise of 0.45-‐0.82m as oceans warm
Despite slowdown due to natural factors, human ac:vity is influencing emissions and related rise in global temperatures;
Timeline of Atmospheric Concentra?ons
Each of the last 3 decades has been successively hoHer than any other preceding decade since 1850
AR5: 95% certain we have been the dominant cause for warming since 1950s
Increase in CO2 due to burning fossil fuels and land-‐use changes
Electricity Consump:on
Energy Consump:on
Es:mates of buildings’ emissions as a percentage of total
“What percentage of CO2 emissions do you think buildings give rise to – directly and indirectly?“
The building sector must lead
Mee:ng the Challenge
2030 Challenge Impacts
Aggressively implemen?ng building codes that meet the 2030 Challenge targets will drama?cally reduce CO2
emissions and transform the Building Sector into a central market sector for the solu?on to climate change.
Reducing energy demand through building efficiency is significantly cheaper than producing the same amount of
energy by coal or nuclear power.
Passive building pathway
Passive building achieves IPCC carbon reduc:on target of 80% below ‘90 levels
2030 Challenge targets: sustainable design, on-‐site RE and/or purchasing RE or RECs*
“Let me put that into perspec:ve: 900 billion square feet is an area equal to 60 %
of the en:re building stock of the world.
That is how much we will build by 2030. We will essen:ally rebuild the world in the next two decades.
That is a huge opportunity if we do it right.” – Ed Mazria, Architecture 2030
The scale of the building energy challenge
Building energy forecasts
Energy efficiency contributed 63 exajoules (EJ) (1400 Mtoe) of avoided energy use in 2010 >> Larger than the supply of oil (43 EJ), electricity or natural gas (22 EJ each)
Two thirds of the economic poten:al to improve energy efficiency remains untapped in the period to 2035
Movement: Linking EE & CO2 reduc?ons
Clean Energy Campus Campaign • Campuses cer:fy their “beyond business as usual” GHG reduc:ons against these new methodologies by mee:ng specific performance benchmarks and other eligibility criteria. • Chevrolet pays campuses for these cer:fied reduc:ons and permanently re:res them to benefit the climate.
Campus Value: • Pilot projects say funding is strategic to realiza:on of GHG performances in LEED buildings and/or across their campuses. • Funding can contribute a 5-‐25% return on incremental capital needed to achieve leading-‐edge clean energy efficiency performance.
Carbon Crossroads
The Pathway to Two Degrees C
• We need to spend our carbon budget wisely of we are to meet the target
• If we fail to follow this path, we will exceed our budget between 2050 -‐ 2070
Poli:cal will.
We must make it!
