partnership excellence growth 1 economics of adaptation to climate change (eacc) economics of...
TRANSCRIPT
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
1
ECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE ECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE (EACC)CHANGE (EACC)
Vietnam Case Study*Fisheries & Aquaculture Sector
• World Bank funded
• 5-month study
• WorldFish Center, MCD, CTU, Sub-NIAPP
* Other case study countries: Bangladesh, Bolivia, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, Samoa
Kam Suan Pheng, Marie-Caroline Badjeck, Robert Pomeroy, Mike
PhillipsNovember, 2009
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
2
Study ObjectivesStudy ObjectivesImpact assessment:
– What is the vulnerability of the aquaculture sector to CC (expected impacts?), what is the vulnerability of dominant aquaculture regions of the country to CC?
– What are the physical as well as economic losses which may be expected over the period 2010 to 2050 as a result of CC?
Adaptation options:– What are the plausible adaptation options?
• planned • autonomous
– What are the costs and benefits?
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
3
The four-step The four-step methodologymethodology
• Examine CC projections, assess exposure, dependency, sensitivity & potential impacts
• Learning from the past: assessment of adaptive capacity & adaptation benefit
• Estimate impacts & adaptation costs
• Macro-level assessment of adaptation to CC
EACC Final Methodology Report, 2009
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
4
Study FrameworkStudy Framework
ADAPTATION OPTIONS- costs & benefits- policy implications
DEVELOPMENT PLANS - aquaculture sector - other sectors
DEPENDENCY- reliance on the aquaculture sector
EXPOSURE- nature and degree to which the aquaculture sector is exposed to predicted CC
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY- ability to cope with climate-related changes
VULNERABILITY- the nature and extent
of losses incurred by the aquaculture sector
due to CC
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth Scale & area of focusScale & area of focus
Source: Agricultural Atlas of Vietnam
Overall national level Mekong River Delta
• Vulnerability of shrimp farming production systems
• Vulnerability of catfish production systems
• Vulnerability of the aquaculture sector as a whole
• Province-level analysis
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
6
Capture vs culture production in Capture vs culture production in VietnamVietnam
Share of national GDP, %
Capture Culture1996 5.05 2.141997 5.01 2.061998 4.83 2.081999 4.93 2.192000 5.08 2.882001 4.85 3.822002 4.63 4.182003 4.39 4.712004 4.25 5.262005 4.04 5.782006 3.78 6.062007 3.56 6.58
Prel. 2008 3.37 6.61
Source: General Statistical Office of Vietnam
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
7
Production of cultured shrimp and fish
Export of aquatic products
Regional distribution of (a) cultured shrimp, and (b) cultured fish production
(a) (b)
Source: General Statistical Office of Vietnam
Source: VASEP
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
• Climate change Temperature rise Rainfall patterns
• Sea-level rise & other marine impacts Impact on hydrology Coastal extreme events Marine catch & feed supply
• Infrastructure development Coastal dykes River bunds
ExposureExposure
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
• Temperature rise (0.03oC per year; 1.2oC from 2010-50) Effect on physiology and growth of cultured species Increased evaporation and salinity of shrimp ponds Increased decomposition of feed in waters pollution
• Rainfall patterns
Direct impacts on aquaculture sector?
Interaction with hydrology
Climate changeClimate change
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
• Sea-level rise (30 cm by 2050; 75 cm by 2100)• Changes to hydrology in the delta
• Increased flooding in the upper delta in the wet season: impact on freshwater aquaculture
• Increased salinity intrusion in the coastal area in the dry season: impact on brackish-water aquaculture link
• Coastal extreme events• Direct damage to aquaculture structures, especially those
directly exposed
• Marine catch & feed supply
• Supply of trash fish and fish meal
Sea level rise & other CC-Sea level rise & other CC-induced marine phenomenainduced marine phenomena
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
- modifies the hydrology & aquaculture potential- costs & benefits are multi-sectoral: needs general
equilibrium analysis* to account for inter-sectoral reallocation of resources that could occur due to CC
* e.g. input-output and computable general equilibrium models
Infrastructure developmentInfrastructure development
• Coastal dykes for coast defense
• River bunds for flood protection
• Plans for stage-wise development: how to analyze economics of gradual adaptation?
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
DependencyDependency
Means something/someone being reliant on the sector in question
This reliance can come in different forms and scales:
At the national scale: “The importance of fisheries to the national economy and food security” (Allison et al. 2009) =>Fisheries dependence index: social, psychological (identity) economic, dimensions, includes post-harvesting (Griffith and Dyer 1996) At the community or local scale: focus on employment & cultural importance (Jacob et al. 2005, Brookfield et al. 2005, Moniz et al. 2000)
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth DependencyDependencyThe scale and nature of dependency across the value chain varies with sub-sector, e.g. in the Mekong River deltaThe catfish industry employs about 0.5 million people: 250,000 in production; 200,000 in processing; 50,000 people in support services – moving towards vertical integration
The shrimp industry involves about 1 million farmers operating mainly at small scale; extensive to semi-intensive level over large area – high participation in production but lower in processing.
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
• AC of a country/provinces to drivers of change (including climate change) => broad indicators of socio-economic development
• AC to climate change => specific indicators related to policies/ instruments to reduce vulnerability to climate change (presence/absence of adaptation, DRR, DRM plans etc.)
• AC of the fisheries and aquaculture sector => sectoral indicators: production diversification, reliance on feed imports, labour flexibility
• AC of production systems (catfish & shrimp) => species tolerance limit (salinity, pH etc), flexibility of supply chain?, flooding (ponds vs cages)
What instances of adaptation are already being shown by farmers, communities?
Adaptive Capacity*Adaptive Capacity*
* the ability or capacity of a system (e.g. sector, country, region, etc.) to evolve & adapt to new situations as they arise, and/or to apply novel responses to address the change
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
15
Vulnerability & Economic Vulnerability & Economic AnalysisAnalysisImpact assessment:
– What is the vulnerability of the aquaculture sector to CC (expected impacts?), what is the vulnerability of dominant aquaculture regions of the country to CC? indicators link
– What are the physical as well as economic losses which may be expected over the period 2010 to 2050 as a result of CC?
Adaptation options:– What are the plausible adaptation options, planned &
autonomous? – What are the costs and benefits?
The economic analysis will involve a two-level analysis
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
Focus on catfish and shrimp; conduct farm-level analysis Identify & describe the production & marketing system
(value chain) Conduct current financial analysis using budget analysis Conduct partial budget analysis to identify changes to
production costs due to CC impacts Marketing system analysis of market channel and costs Household/farm level analysis of impacts on losses to
revenue, income & employment Scale up results to the shrimp & catfish industry
I.I. Economic costsEconomic costs
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
Identify adaptation options
Compile a list of potential autonomous (private) and public (government-led) adaptation measures and estimate the total impact of these measures in the aquaculture sector.
Estimate the potential impacts as well as costs and benefits of the specified public adaptation measures.
Identify which adaptation measures offer the greatest economic return and the best possibility to climate-proof the aquaculture sector
II. Costs & benefits of adaptationII. Costs & benefits of adaptation
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
Cost/benefit analysis
Consider 2 scenarios: without (A); with (B) CC
Scenario A is based on planned set of investment over the next 40 years
Scenario B incorporates costs of projects in response to CC
Address mitigation, development, different types of adaptations, uncertainty, time
Conduct costs/benefits analysis on an optimal set of projects with and without CC, using standard CBA methodology
Note: The development of a general equilibrium analysis model (input-output, Computable GE) is beyond the scope of this study
II. Costs & benefits of adaptationII. Costs & benefits of adaptation
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
Diversity of production systems for aquaculture, fitting into different agro-ecologies, ranging from purely aquaculture activities to integrated production of a variety of aquatic organisms potentially an adaptable sector to respond to CC
Aquaculture, in various forms, competes with and complements other food production systems particularly in the use of water resources “as much as CC mitigation is about energy, CC adaptation is about
water”; this is particularly pertinent in the context of aquaculture Aquaculture production is at different levels of intensity and capitalization
and involves different levels of participation vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities vary
A dynamic and volatile sector subjected to economic booms and busts; export-oriented commodities susceptible to global fluctuations in demand; VN producers and the government are highly market-responsive; 10-15 year planning horizon “Climate is not the only change around”; CC is a “slow variable”We are barely scratching the surface in dealing with the economics of
adaptation of the aquaculture sector to CC
Aquaculture and CCAquaculture and CC
partnership Ÿ excellence Ÿ growth
For discussion…