paris agreement turning point - climate analytics · paris agreement’s 1.5°c within striking...

December 2020

Climate Action Tracker

Paris Agreement turning point Wave of net zero targets reduces warming estimate to 2.1˚C in 2100

All eyes on 2030 targets

Climate Action Tracker June 2019 Update 1

ClimateActionTracker

+1.5°C+1.3°C

+0°C

+2°C

+3°C

Pledges& Targets

+2.6°C

+2.1°C

CurrentPolicies

+2.9°C

+3.9°C

+2.1°C

+4°C

+3.3°COptimistic

Targets

+2.1°C

+2.7°C

+1.7°C

Summary

Climate Action Tracker Warming Projections Global Update December 2020 1

Summary

The recent wave of net zero targets has put the

Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C within striking distance. The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) has calculated that global warming by 2100 could be as low as 2.1°C as a result of all the net zero pledges announced as of November 2020.

I n c l u d e d i n o u r n e w m o d e l l i n g i s t h e announcement by China in September 2020 that it intends to reach carbon neutrality before 2060, which reduces the CAT end of century warming estimate by 0.2 to 0.3°C alone. Assuming carbon neutrality in the USA by 2050, as proposed by President-Elect Biden, would reduce warming by another 0.1°C. South Africa, Japan, South Korea and Canada have also recently announced net-zero targets. In total, 127 countries responsible for around 63% of emissions are considering or have adopted net zero targets.

While 2050 net zero targets are commendable, governments must now adopt stronger

2030 targets (nationally determined contributions or NDCs) to deliver on their net zero goals, and close the remaining emissions gap to 1.5°C. The end of 2020 deadline to submit new and updated NDCs is fast approaching. These strengthened NDCs are critical to ensuring governments can meet their mid-century net zero targets. Governments must also develop detailed implementation plans to support these targets.

However, there remains little positive movement by governments to improve their 2030 NDC targets since Paris in 2015. As of November 2020, no large emitter had submitted a

substantially updated NDC since the adoption of the Paris Agreement. Moreover, governments' current policies put them on a warming trajectory of 0.8°C higher than our

optimistic net zero target assessment.

It is clear the Paris Agreement is driving climate action. On the eve of its five-year anniversary, a survey of past Climate Action Tracker assessments shows that the temperature estimates for end-of-century warming have been falling for both the targets and real-world emissions projections.

End of century warming estimates for real-world emissions have fallen by 0.7°C in the last

five years. Our temperature estimate of real-world action based on all adopted national policies (‘current policies’ scenario) has substantially decreased by 0.7°C from 3.6°C in 2015 in to 2.9°C today. Implementation of new policies, increased use of renewable energy, a downturn in the use of coal and lower economic growth assumptions (both prior to and because of the pandemic) are responsible for the lion’s share of the drop.

End of century warming estimates for targets have fallen by 0.5°C due to the new net zero

targets and in total by 1.4°C through Paris pledges. The Climate Action Tracker began analysing the effect of targets and pledges on warming in 2009. At that time, our estimate stood at 3.5°C. The first major improvement in this estimate occurred in the lead-up to the Paris summit in 2015, as governments began announcing their intended contributions (INDCs). By the time, the Paris Agreement was adopted, the CAT temperature estimate fell significantly to 2.7°C. Our current temperature estimate as of November 2020 is 2.6°C.

In the years between Paris and now, the estimate rose in the aftermath of the USA and Russia abandoning targets, then fell again, along with real world emission trends.

PRE-INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE

WE ARE HERE1.1°C Warming in 2020

1.5°C PARIS AGREEMENT GOAL+1.5°C+1.3°C

+0°C

+2°C

+3°C

Pledges& Targets

+2.6°C

+2.1°C

CurrentPolicies

+2.9°C

+3.9°C

+2.1°C

+4°C

+3.3°COptimistic

Targets

+2.1°C

+2.7°C

+1.7°C

Dec 2020 Update


Summary 1 ...................................................................................................................................................

1 How far have we come since Paris? 3 ...............................................................................................

2 A wave of net zero emissions targets Paris 1.5˚C temperature limit within striking distance 5 .....................................................................................................................................................

3 Governments must now align 2030 targets to meet net zero goals 8 ...................................

Bibliography 9 ............................................................................................................................................

Technical Annex 10...................................................................................................................................


Table of Contents

1 How far have we come since Paris?

Five years after the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, the transition to a zero emissions society has clearly begun. The Climate Action Tracker’s analysis of real-world action (our ‘current policies’ scenario) shows a discernible drop in our estimates of future global greenhouse gas emissions and associated temperature increase by the end of the century since 2015 (Figure 1).

In 2015, we estimated real-world action would result in 3.6°C of global warming by 2100, with a considerable margin of error due to the uncertainties of the climate system. Our latest assessment found that the world in 2020 is on a path to 2.9°C of warming, a drop of 0.7°C from our 2015 estimate (Climate Action Tracker, 2020). The implementation of adopted policies, increased use of renewable energy, a downturn in the use of coal and lower economic growth assumptions are the main drivers of this decline, and the temporary economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic also contributes to a small degree. Real-world action is still far from meeting the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C.

Figure 1. Impact of the Paris Agreement on the estimated global temperature increase in 2100. Figure shows the estimates of the Climate Action Tracker from 2009-2020 for “pledges and targets” and “current policies”.1

In its preparation phase, the Paris Agreement had a significant impact on national greenhouse gas reduction targets. Targets and pledges put forward under the 2009 Copenhagen Accord / 2010 Cancun Agreements, the first set of agreements where all governments presented pledges for greenhouse gas reductions, would have led to 3.5°C of warming by the end of the century. The level of these commitments was significantly inadequate for the then agreed warming limit of below 2°C.

In the run-up to the Paris Agreement, the CAT’s temperature estimate improved significantly as an increasing number of countries presented their “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) for the new climate agreement, most significantly when the USA and China submitted their pledges together. When the Paris Agreement was adopted, our thermometer stood at 2.7°C, a significant improvement of 0.8°C from our 2009 estimate (see Figure 1).

1.5°C

2°C

2.5°C

3°C

3.5°C

4°C

4.5°C

5°C

5.5°C

2009 2012 2015 2017 2020

Effect of new pledges

1.4°Creduction

Effect of 2020 net zero announcements

0.5°Creduction

Effect of implemented policies

0.7°Creduction

Global temperature

increase in 2100

Paris Agreement Dec 2015

Lead up to Paris Roll back of USA & Russia

Overachievement of national targets

New long-term targets (China, USA, Japan, South Korea, etc)

IMPACT OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT

Changes to the estimated global temperature increase in 2100


Pledges & Targets with range

Current policies with range

Optimistic Scenario

Year of temperature estimate2020

The Climate Action Tracker is continuously updating and refining its methodology. As a result, the temperature estimates in this 1figure cannot solely be attributed to target improvements or real-world action; however, the figure does show the overall progression of our estimates.


1 How far have we come since Paris?

There has been little movement on targets, in the right direction, since Paris. On the contrary, under the Trump Administration, the USA announced its intention to withdraw from the Agreement on 1 June 2017, a decision that took effect in November 2020, and its earlier long-term target was no longer valid. We also no longer included the long-term target that Russia had made as part of the G20 (it was not mentioned in Russia’s national processes). As a result, our temperature estimate for NDCs actually increased between 2015-2017.

Since 2017, the temperature estimate has dropped slowly; however this decline is not due to new or stronger NDCs (as there have been very few), but rather because the CAT takes a country’s real-world emissions estimate in 2030 in instances where the country’s target is so weak and divorced from their real-world emissions trajectory that to include the inflated target would be to overestimate end of century warming. As a result, the targets’ temperature estimate follows a similar trajectory to our real-world ‘climate policies’ projection and reflects the rapid cost decline of renewables and implementation of policies. Our current temperature estimate for governments’ targets and pledges, as of November 2020, is 2.6°C. 2

This estimate is 0.1°C lower than our September 2020 due to improvements in our methodology and updated older long-term 2targets used in our assessment.


2 A wave of net zero emissions targets Paris 1.5˚C temperature limit within striking distance

Under the Paris Agreement, governments agreed to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of the century [Article 4.1]. The IPCC Special Report on 1.5˚C found that to stand a 3

good chance of limiting global warming to 1.5˚C, global CO2 and other GHG emissions must reach net zero by 2050 and 2070 (IPCC, 2018), respectively. The sooner CO2 emissions cross zero, the sooner global temperature will stop rising.

At the time the Paris Agreement was adopted, only a very few countries had net zero emissions reduction targets. In the five years since Paris, an increasing number of countries have adopted this target, with a wave of net zero target announcements from major emitters in recent months.

Several European countries, including the UK, and small island states were amongst the first to commit to net zero emissions, followed by the EU with its proposal to enshrine the goal of net zero GHG emissions by 2050 in law in March 2020 (European Commission, 2020). In September 2020, China pledged its aim to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 (Xinhua, 2020), followed by net zero announcements from South Africa, Japan, South Korea and Canada (Cha, 2020; Government of Canada, 2020; Lies, 2020; Republic of South Africa, 2020). 127 countries have now made such announcements, together responsible for around 63% of global emissions. This figure takes into account the US, where President-elect Joe Biden has promised carbon neutrality by 2050 (Biden & Sanders, 2020). Without the USA, it would be 126 countries and 51% of emissions (see Figure 2).

Figure 2. Share of GHG emissions covered by countries that have announced net zero emission targets (agreed in law, as part of an initiative, or under discussion). Compilation based on ECIU (2020) as of 23 November 2020 complemented by CAT analysis. Emissions data for 2017 taken from EDGAR emissions database (EDGAR, 2019).

The Climate Action Tracker estimates that if all 127 governments with net zero targets (agreed or under discussion) were to achieve these goals (our “optimistic target” scenario), our temperature estimate for 2100 would be as low as 2.1°C, bringing the 1.5˚C temperature limit of the Paris Agreement within reach. If we exclude from the calculation net zero targets where the status is 4

unclear or where it can only be traced to a subscription to a net zero initiative (but still including the

USA), the temperature estimate by 2100 increases to 2.14°C. Excluding the USA leads to 2.24°C.

With Without

Table 1

17.8% 5,874

Other countries with similar net-zero announcements18%

7.9% 4,550

European Union (EU27) and UK8%

25.0% 13,000 China25%

12.5% 6,430 United States12%

36.9% 19,398

Countries with no net-zero target37%

With 51% 63%

Without 49% 37%

NET ZERO TARGETS

With Without

51%63%

Other countries with similar net-zero announcements 18%

European Union (EU27) and UK 8%

China 25%

Countries with no net-zero target

37%

United States 12%

Page width 21cm

Margin MarginPage width 16cm

The idea to include a global net zero target in the Paris Agreement was put forward in the run up to COP 21, for instance in 3Haites, Yamin & Höhne (2013).

See the Annex for a list of countries and respective assumptions. 4


2 A wave of net zero emissions targets putsParis 1.5˚C temperature limit within striking distance

Figure 3. Global greenhouse gas emission pathways for CAT estimates of current policies, current pledges and targets and an optimistic scenario based on 127 net zero targets in comparison to 2°C and 1.5°C consistent pathways.

There is considerable uncertainty of our ‘optimistic target’ scenario temperature of 2.1°C, due to the uncertainty in carbon-cycle and climate modelling. The 2.1°C estimate is the “best guess” given the uncertainties, there is 50% chance that it is below 2.1°C and a 50% chance that it is above. We provide an uncertainty range based on the likelihood of the estimate of 1.7°C to 2.7°C: There is a 84% chance that it is below 2.7°C and a 16% chance that it is below 1.7°C. Often a “likely” probability of 66% is used when it comes to the long-term temperature limit of the Paris agreement (also for the 1.5°C and 2°C pathways in Figure 3). The temperature outcome of our optimistic target scenario is “likely” to be (with a probability of 66%) below 2.3°C.

If such a large share of current emissions were to reach zero by 2050, why does the temperature estimate remain still so far away from 1.5°C? First, the countries without a net zero target (responsible for the remaining 37% of global emissions) are assumed to follow their current emissions trajectory. To limit warming to 1.5°C, these emissions would also have to reduce to zero eventually. Technology spill over from countries that do have net zero commitments may speed up emissions reductions in other countries and lower warming further, but we do not consider these effects here.

Second, we assume that once countries reach their net zero targets, they do not make additional efforts to move to significant net negative emissions. However, all 1.5°C compatible scenarios include some sort of carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere in the second half of the century and assume that emissions become net negative after the net zero line is reached (IPCC, 2018). As a

rough order of magnitude, net negative emissions after 2050 can double the temperature effect. For example, if the USA were to follow a net negative trajectory after 2050, the temperature impact of its target would move from 0.1°C to 0.2°C.

The net zero targets differ in their treatment of land sector emissions and the greenhouse gases they cover (see Annex for details). Some net zero targets do not cover all greenhouse gases, and some are unclear in their coverage. We assumed that China and the United States aim to bring all GHGs to net zero by 2050 and 2060, respectively. Announcements and discussions after the targets were announced suggest that the targets cover all GHG emissions, even if the original formulations

2100 WARMING PROJECTIONS Emissions and expected warming based on pledges and current policies

Warming projected by 2100

-20

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40

50

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70

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Historical

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Dec 2020 update

Pledges & Targets2.6°C

Current policies2.7 – 3.1°C

Optimistic net zero targets2.1°C

2°C consistent1.6 – 1.7°C

1.5°C consistent1.3°C


of the targets are not clear about their scope. If they intend instead to achieve net zero CO2 emissions, this would increase the global temperature increase and push the 1.5°C target further out of reach.

Figure 4: Net zero targets announced by 127 countries worldwide as of November 2020. Compilation based on ECIU (2020) as of 23 November 2020 complemented by CAT analysis.


August 2020

NET ZERO POLICY GLOBAL MAP November 2020

Canada USA EU Japan

Canada tabled net zero target legislation in

November 2020

'Biden Plan' by President-elect proposing net zero

target for 2050

Commission tabled net zero target legislation in

March 2020

Prime minister Suga announced that Japan will

aim for net zero GHG emissions by 2050

South Africa China South Korea

Vision statement for net zero carbon emissions by

2050 in submitted LTS

Announcement of 'carbon neutrality' before 2060 by President Xi Jinping at UN

General Assembly

In a policy speech President Moon Jae-in announced that

South Korea will reach carbon neutrality by 2050

In law

Proposed Legislation

In Policy Document

Target Under Discussion

No discussion

Status of net zero policy


3 Governments must now align 2030 targets to meet net zero goals

Setting net zero targets is an important step, and an influential signal. However, strengthening the 2030 NDC targets and accelerating policy implementation are critical to ensuring those long-term goals can be met. Steeper emissions reductions over the next five to ten years will be essential. In other words: pathways matter. Many NDCs are not compatible with the 1.5˚C temperature goal and are not in line with moving to net zero by 2050.

Even with a small dip due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we expect global GHG emissions to continue rising until 2030. Global emissions would have to be cut in half to be in line with trajectories compatible with the 1.5°C limit. The emissions gap remains enormous (Figure 5).

Figure 5: 2030 emissions gap between NDC targets and levels consistent with 1.5°C (Climate Action Tracker, 2020).

So far, no single large emitter has strengthened its NDC target since Paris. A month remains before 5

the end of 2020, a year in which countries were expected to submit their updated and improved NDCs. To keep the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement within reach, all countries need to submit and implement new and more ambitious NDCs for the 2030 timeframe.

Pledge line 1.5°C Line 2°C Line

2°C

1

0 –

15 G

tCO

2e

2C consistent 2C consistent

1.5C consistent 1.5C consistent

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Historical 1.5C consistent Median2C consistent Median

Current Policies Current Policies

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030Historical 35.989 36.353 35.530 35.736 35.857 36.668 37.317 37.689 38.039 38.294 39.248 39.719 40.357 41.746 43.132 44.353 45.395 46.537 46.814 46.220 48.700 50.000 50.000 51.000 51.000 51.0001.5C consistent Median 48.100 48.637 49.174 49.711 50.247 50.784 51.321 51.858 52.395 52.932 53.468 50.717 47.965 45.213 42.461 39.710 36.958 34.206 31.454 28.702 25.9512C consistent Median 48.100 48.637 49.174 49.711 50.247 50.784 51.321 51.858 52.395 52.932 53.468 51.971 50.473 48.976 47.478 45.981 44.483 42.985 41.488 39.990 38.493

Current Policy Projections

High Paste 0 0 0 0 0 50.534 50.510 51.103 51.782 52.010 49.629 50.945 51.489 51.902 52.391 52.890 53.442 53.945 54.447 54.939 55.418

Current Policies High Calc 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.010 0.023 0.052 0.323 2.184 2.355 2.777 2.93 3.136 3.433 3.679 3.923 4.127 4.332 4.552Current Policies Low 0 0 0 0 0 50.532 50.500 51.080 51.730 51.687 47.445 48.590 48.712 48.972 49.255 49.457 49.763 50.022 50.320 50.607 50.866

Pledges High Paste 0 0 0 0 0 50.401 50.332 50.860 51.384 51.460 49.323 50.284 50.712 51.125 51.610 51.977 52.355 52.684 52.983 53.149 53.287Pledges High Calc 0 0 0 0 0 0.308 0.221 0.265 0.614 0.874 2.055 2.521 2.554 2.891 3.319 3.658 3.938 4.219 4.433 4.525 4.606Pledges Low 0 0 0 0 0 50.093 50.111 50.595 50.770 50.586 47.268 47.763 48.158 48.234 48.291 48.319 48.417 48.465 48.550 48.624 48.681

1.5C consistent Median 48.100 48.637 49.174 49.711 50.247 50.784 51.321 51.858 52.395 52.932 53.468 50.717 47.965 45.213 42.461 39.710 36.958 34.206 31.454 28.702 25.9511.5C consistent High Paste 48.100 48.673 49.246 49.818 50.391 50.964 51.537 52.110 52.682 53.255 53.828 51.198 48.569 45.939 43.310 40.680 38.050 35.421 32.791 30.162 27.5321.5C consistent High Calc 0.000 0.332 0.664 0.994 1.326 1.658 1.99 2.321 2.652 2.984 3.316 3.609 3.904 4.198 4.492 4.786 5.079 5.374 5.668 5.962 6.2561.5C consistent Low 48.100 48.341 48.582 48.824 49.065 49.306 49.547 49.789 50.030 50.271 50.512 47.589 44.665 41.741 38.818 35.894 32.971 30.047 27.123 24.200 21.276

2C consistent Median 48.100 48.637 49.174 49.711 50.247 50.784 51.321 51.858 52.395 52.932 53.468 51.971 50.473 48.976 47.478 45.981 44.483 42.985 41.488 39.990 38.4932C consistent High Paste 48.100 48.835 49.571 50.306 51.042 51.777 52.512 53.248 53.983 54.719 55.454 54.251 53.049 51.846 50.644 49.441 48.238 47.036 45.833 44.631 43.4282C consistent High Calc 0.000 0.428 0.858 1.286 1.716 2.144 2.573 3.002 3.43 3.86 4.288 4.783 5.278 5.773 6.268 6.763 7.257 7.753 8.247 8.743 9.2372C consistent Low 48.100 48.407 48.713 49.020 49.326 49.633 49.939 50.246 50.553 50.859 51.166 49.468 47.771 46.073 44.376 42.678 40.981 39.283 37.586 35.888 34.191

0.4286666666666670.4286666666666670.4286666666666670.4286666666666670.428666666666667 0.4949 0.4949 0.4949 0.4949 0.4949 0.4949 0.4949 0.4949 0.49490.3066666666666670.3066666666666670.3066666666666670.3066666666666670.306666666666667 -1.6975 -1.6975 -1.6975 -1.6975 -1.6975 -1.6975 -1.6975 -1.6975 -1.6975

Copenhagen Pledge (CAT 2017)

506


453


400

CCA targets (excl. LULUCF)

356 300

CCA targets (excl. LULUCF)

324 164

NDC (CAT 2017) 413NDC (CAT 2017) 364

COPY AND PASTE

GtCO2e 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030Historic 35.989 36.353 35.530 35.736 35.857 36.668 37.317 37.689 38.039 38.294 39.248 39.719 40.357 41.746 43.132 44.353 45.395 46.537 46.814 46.220 48.700 50.000 50.000 51.000 51.000 51.000Pledges and Targets

High 50.401 50.332 50.860 51.384 51.460 49.323 50.284 50.712 51.125 51.610 51.977 52.355 52.684 52.983 53.149 53.287

Low 50.093 50.111 50.595 50.770 50.586 47.268 47.763 48.158 48.234 48.291 48.319 48.417 48.465 48.550 48.624 48.681

Current Policy Projections

High 50.534 50.510 51.103 51.782 52.010 49.629 50.945 51.489 51.902 52.391 52.890 53.442 53.945 54.447 54.939 55.418

Low 50.532 50.500 51.080 51.730 51.687 47.445 48.590 48.712 48.972 49.255 49.457 49.763 50.022 50.320 50.607 50.866

2C consistent High 48.100 48.835 49.571 50.306 51.042 51.777 52.512 53.248 53.983 54.719 55.454 54.251 53.049 51.846 50.644 49.441 48.238 47.036 45.833 44.631 43.428

Median 48.100 48.637 49.174 49.711 50.247 50.784 51.321 51.858 52.395 52.932 53.468 51.971 50.473 48.976 47.478 45.981 44.483 42.985 41.488 39.990 38.493

Low 48.100 48.407 48.713 49.020 49.326 49.633 49.939 50.246 50.553 50.859 51.166 49.468 47.771 46.073 44.376 42.678 40.981 39.283 37.586 35.888 34.191

1.5C consistent High 48.100 48.673 49.246 49.818 50.391 50.964 51.537 52.110 52.682 53.255 53.828 51.198 48.569 45.939 43.310 40.680 38.050 35.421 32.791 30.162 27.532

Median 48.100 48.637 49.174 49.711 50.247 50.784 51.321 51.858 52.395 52.932 53.468 50.717 47.965 45.213 42.461 39.710 36.958 34.206 31.454 28.702 25.951

Low 48.100 48.341 48.582 48.824 49.065 49.306 49.547 49.789 50.030 50.271 50.512 47.589 44.665 41.741 38.818 35.894 32.971 30.047 27.123 24.200 21.276

Reduction Percentages 1990 Levels 2000 Levels 2000 Steps 2005 Levels 2005 StepsEmissions Starting Point 35.989 39.248 44.353

10% increments 3.5989 3.9248 4.4353

0% 0 0 0 0 0 010% 3.5989 3.5989 3.9248 3.9248 4.4353 4.435320% 7.1978 3.5989 7.8496 3.9248 8.8706 4.435330% 10.7967 3.5989 11.7744 3.9248 13.3059 4.435340% 14.3956 3.5989 15.6992 3.9248 17.7412 4.435350% 17.9945 3.5989 19.624 3.9248 22.1765 4.435360% 21.5934 3.5989 23.5488 3.9248 26.6118 4.435370% 25.1923 3.5989 27.4736 3.9248 31.0471 4.435380% 28.7912 3.5989 31.3984 3.9248 35.4824 4.435390% 32.3901 3.5989 35.3232 3.9248 39.9177 4.4353100% 35.989 3.5989 39.248 3.9248 44.353 4.4353110% 39.5879 3.5989 43.1728 3.9248 48.7883 4.4353120% 43.1868 3.5989 47.0976 3.9248 53.2236 4.4353130% 46.7857 3.5989 51.0224 3.9248 57.6589 4.4353140% 50.3846 3.5989 54.9472 3.9248 62.0942 4.4353150% 53.9835 3.5989 58.872 3.9248 66.5295 4.4353160% 57.5824 3.5989 62.7968 3.9248 70.9648 4.4353170% 61.1813 3.5989 66.7216 3.9248 75.4001 4.4353180% 64.7802 3.5989 70.6464 3.9248 79.8354 4.4353190% 68.3791 3.5989 74.5712 3.9248 84.2707 4.4353200% 71.978 3.5989 78.496 3.9248 88.706 4.4353210% 75.5769 3.5989 82.4208 3.9248 93.1413 4.4353220% 79.1758 3.5989 86.3456 3.9248 97.5766 4.4353230% 82.7747 3.5989 90.2704 3.9248 102.0119 4.4353

Pledge line 50.984 50.98 50.98 50.98 50.98 50.98 50.98 50.982°C Line 38.493 38.49 38.49 38.49 38.49 38.49 38.49 38.491.5°C Line 25.951 25.95 25.95 25.95 25.95 25.95 25.95 25.95

2000 Steps 2005 Steps

Current Policies 35-46% above 1990 levels

Pledges 2020 Copenhagen pledges 0-27% above 1990 levels

2030 NDC targets 3% above - 9% below 1990 levels

CCA Recommendations 2025 Targets 11-19% below 1990 levels

2030 Target recommendation 25-59% below 1990 levels

Reference Years 1990 - 400 MtCO2e 2000 - 466 MtCO2e 2005 - 502 MtCO2e

Notes & References The NDC target results in emissions levels that are far above emissions levels resulting from the Climate Change Authority (CCA) recommendations for Australia’s future emissions reduction target (Australian Climate Change Authority, 2015). Climate Change Authority In July 2015, the CCA recommended an emissions reduction target of 30% below 2000 levels by 2025 (incl. LULUCF). The Authority did not recommend a target for 2030, but has estimated that Australia should be aiming to reduce emissions by 40–60% below 2000 levels (incl. LULUCF) by 2030. These percentages have been converted to percentages compared to 1990 levels (excl. LULUCF) for better comparison purposes. Climate Action Tracker 2015 update - climateactiontracker.org/countries/australia/2015.html Historical, Current Policies and Pledges Data Climate Action Tracker 2017 update (forthcoming) - climateactiontracker.org/countries/australia.html


2030 Emissions gaps

Emissions gaps in 20302°C 1.5°C

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1.5°C 14 – 17 GtCO2e

GRAPH INSTRUCTIONS

The graph is made of 6 separate graphs - 1 line graph with solid and dashed lines (arranged to sit on top - 4 separate stacked area graphs, one for each of the current policies, pledges, 2°C and 1.5°C ranges. These graphs have all gridlines and axis labels switched off. - A stacked column graph for the 1990 percentages which is sourced from the table to the right

The graph has been scaled to a width of 16cm so it fits properly into an A4 page (21cm wide minus 2 x 2.5cm margins). It might need to be duplicated and re-scaled for the web, especially to ensure fonts are big enough to read properly.

Ensure the graphs have the same physical dimensions (height in cm or pixels) when all axis and labels are switched off and are aligned exactly over each other properly. Use the position information in the inspector to make sure it is all accurate. Zoom in to max and scan graph to make sure all is ok.

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GtCO2e 2025 2030

2°C Scenarios Min gap 2 10 GtCO2e

Previous estimate Max Gap 6 152 – 6 10 – 15

1.5°C Scenarios Min gap 9 23

Previous estimate Max Gap 12 279 – 12 23 – 27

Hard text gaps

The “gap” range results only from uncertainties in the pledge projections. Gaps are calculated against the mean of the benchmark emissions for 1.5°C and 2°C.

Emissions gaps in 2025

2°C 11 – 14 GtCO2e

2030 EMISSIONS GAPSCAT projections and resulting emissions gaps in meeting the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal vs 2°C Cancún goal

2025 2030

1.5°C Scenarios 14 - 17 GtCO2e 22 - 26 GtCO2ePrevious estimate 14 - 17 GtCO2e 21 - 24 GtCO2e

2°C Scenarios 11 - 14 GtCO2e 16 - 20 GtCO2ePrevious estimate 11 - 14 GtCO2e 15 - 19 GtCO2e

EMISSIONS PLEDGE GAP RANGES

2°C2 – 6 GtCO2e

Paris 1.5°C9 – 12 GtCO2e

2 – 6 GtCO2e

2 – 6 GtCO2e


Sept 2020 update

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1990 1995

Pledge line 1.5°C Line 2°C Line

2°C consistent

Historical incl. LULUCF

Par

is 1

.5°C

23

– 2

7 G

tCO

2e

2019 December version

Pledges Pledges Pledges Pledges

Pledges & Targets

Current policies

1.5°C Paris compatible

Argentina submitted a revised NDC in 2016; however, it only increased its mitigation ambition by 1%. Japan resubmitted its NDC 5unchanged in March 2020 and Russia’s new NDC, submitted in November 2020, will not alter deliver real-world climate action. See the CAT’s Climate Target Update Tracker for details available at: https://climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-tracker.


3 Governments must now align 2030 targets to meet net zero goals

https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/argentina/2018-04-30/pledges-and-targets/

Bibliography

Biden, J. J., & Sanders, B. (2020). Biden-Sanders Unity Task Force Recommendations. Retrieved from https://joebiden.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/UNITY-TASK-FORCE-RECOMMENDATIONS.pdf

Cha, S. (2020). South Korea’s Moon targets carbon neutrality by 2050. Retrieved from Reuters website: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkora-environment-greenewdeal-idUSKBN27D1DU

Climate Action Tracker. (2020). Global update: Pandemic recovery with just a hint of green. Retrieved from https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/global-update-pandemic-recovery-with-just-a-hint-of-green/

ECIU. (2020). Net Zero Tracker. Retrieved November 9, 2020, from https://eciu.net/netzerotracker

EDGAR. (2019). Fossil CO2 and GHG emissions of all world countries. Retrieved from https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/overview.php?v=booklet2019&dst=GHGemi

Environment and Climate Change Canada. (2020). Canada’s 4th Biennial Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Retrieved from Environment and Climate Change Canada website: https://unfccc.int/documents/209928

European Commission. (2018). In-depth analysis in support on the COM(2018) 773: A Clean Planet for all - European strategic long-term vision a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy Knowledge policy Commission. (European Commission (EC), Ed.). Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/knowledge4policy/publication/depth-analysis-support-com2018-773-clean-planet-all-european-strategic-long-term-vision_en

European Commission. (2020). Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality and amending Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 (European Climate Law).

Gobierno de Costa Rica. (2019). Plan Nacional de Descarbonización 2018-2050. Retrieved from https://cambioclimatico.go.cr/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/PLAN.pdf

Government of Canada. (2020). Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act. Bill C-12. Retrieved from https://www.parl.ca/LegisInfo/BillDetails.aspx?Language=en&Mode=1&billId=10959361

Haites, E., Yamin, F., & Höhne, N. (2013). Possible Elements of a 2015 Legal Agreement on Climate Change (No. 16). Paris, France.

IPCC. (2018). IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/

Jiankun, H. (2020). China’s Long-term Low-Carbon Development Strategy and Pathway. Retrieved from: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU5MzY5ODIwNQ==&mid=2247489602&idx=1&sn=c6c6ee7b640539cb6f805817173a7990&chksm=fe0dd4b0c97a5da6b00836019650a2adee0075e1b53290703b5c8fdecbfed70

81324a47d9a21&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=1019QKC14p8bTPZLd0qgMI4p&sharer_sharetime

Lies, E. (2020). Japan aims for zero emissions, carbon neutral society by 2050 - PM. Retrieved from Reuters website: https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-politics-suga-idUSKBN27B0FB

Ministerio de Energia del Gobierno de Chile. (2020). NDC y Plan de Carbono Neutralidad 2050. Retrieved from https://mma.gob.cl/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/20200407_Ministro-Jobet_NDC_V5.pdf

Ministry for the Environment of New Zealand. (2020). New Zealand’s projected greenhouse gas emissions. Retrieved from https://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/emissions-reduction-targets/projected-emissions

Republic of South Africa. (2020). South Africa’s Low-Emission Development Strategy 2050. Retrieved from https://www.environment.gov.za/sites/default/files/docs/2020lowemission_developmentstrategy.pdf

Schweizerische Eidgenossenschaft. (2020). Switzerland’s Fourth Biennial Report under the UNFCCC. Retrieved from https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/CHE_BR4_2020.pdf

Søgaard, G., Mohr, C. W., Alfredssen, G., Fernàndez, C. A., Astrup, R., Breidenbach, J., … Smith, A. (2019). Framskrivninger for arealbrukssektoren –underFNsklimakonvensjon,KyotoprotokollenogEUsrammeverk (Vol. 5).

Xinhua. (2020). Xi announces China aims to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Retrieved from China Daily website: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202009/23/WS5f6a5791a31024ad0ba7b1df.html


Bibliography

Technical Annex We had to make several assumptions to assess the impact of net zero targets on the global temperature increase by 2100. These relate to (1) the emissions covered by the various targets, (2) land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions by 2050, (3) the trajectory of non-CO2

emissions and (4) the importance of 2030 targets.

Table 1 provides an overview of all 12 net zero targets assessed in detail for countries covered in the

CAT. Table 2 lists all 127 net zero targets included in the modelling runs for the CAT’s temperature

estimate in December 2020.

Emissions covered: net zero CO2 versus net zero GHG

While most countries have set net zero GHG targets, South Africa and South Korea explicitly committed to net zero CO2 emissions. New Zealand committed to net zero GHG emissions, with the exception of methane (CH4) from agriculture and waste. The scope of the Chinese, Japanese and US net zero target remain somewhat unclear. While President Xi Jinping spoke of “carbon neutrality” when he addressed the UN Assembly, national experts indicate this target could cover all GHG emissions. Prime minister Suga of Japan has used the terms “carbon neutral” and “net zero GHG emissions” interchangeably; and president-elect Biden has used both “net zero GHG emissions” and “net zero carbon emissions”. Based on communications with in-country experts, we assume that these three large emitters pledged net zero GHG emissions.

We have changed our understanding of China’s net zero target since President Xi Jinping addressed the UN General Assembly in September 2020. In our press release following Jinping’s announcement, we assumed that China had committed to net zero CO2 emissions before 2060. As 6

more information on the target has come out (Jiankun, 2020), we now understand the target to mean net zero GHG emissions.

LULUCF

Net zero emissions imply that residual emissions can be balanced with removals, e.g. from LULUCF. We estimated the level of the LULUCF sink in the net zero target year for each country. Where available, we used national projections until 2050. If only projections until 2030 were available, we assumed 2050 values to be equal to the 2030 value.

When no national projections were available, we assumed that future LULUCF emissions are equal to an historical average, based on most recent data. In our assessments of South Korea and Japan, whose LULUCF emissions have declined in the past decade, this approach led to a sink we considered unrealistically large. For those two countries, we extended the ten-year historical trend to 2030 and assumed that the 2050 value was equal to the 2030 value.

Non-CO2 emission projections

South Korea and South Africa have committed to net zero carbon emissions by 2050. We assumed that non-CO2 emissions will decline at a linear rate between 2030 and 2070 (South Korea) or 2080 (South Africa). The IPCC SR1.5 found that pathways leading to a temperature increase of 1.5˚C above pre-industrial levels reach net zero GHG emissions between 2060 and 2080 (IPCC, 2018). We assumed that developed and developing countries reach net zero non-CO2 emissions by 2070 and 2080, respectively.

Further, as we assume that countries with a net zero carbon target will use their LULUCF sink to balance our residual CO2 emissions by 2050, non-CO2 emissions must go to zero in order to achieve

Available at: https://climateactiontracker.org/press/china-carbon-neutral-before-2060-would-lower-warming-projections-by-6around-2-to-3-tenths-of-a-degree/.


Technical Annex

https://climateactiontracker.org/press/china-carbon-neutral-before-2060-would-lower-warming-projections-by-around-2-to-3-tenths-of-a-degree/



net zero GHG emissions. Alternatively (and more likely), countries will invest in additional carbon dioxide removals.

To determine the amount of non-CO2 emissions by 2030, we would ideally have used the breakdown as stated in the NDC. However, this information exists for neither South Africa nor South Korea, so we used the breakdown as projected by the current policy projection for 2030.

Importance of 2030 targets in the emission trajectory to net zero

The lower the 2030 value in the emissions trajectory, the lower global temperature increase will be. We assumed that countries achieve their most recent NDC target for 2030. Where countries have committed to an NDC range, we assumed the highest value.

Japan and South Africa are expected to overachieve their NDC targets. In this case, we have taken the maximum post-COVID current policy projection as the 2030 value.

The United States formally withdrew from the Paris Agreement in November 2020 and therefore no longer has an NDC target. We have taken the upper end of the USA post-COVID current policy projection in 2025 as the base year and assume that all GHG emissions will decline at a linear rate to net zero between 2025 and 2050, with all power sector CO2 emissions already reaching zero by 2025

as proposed in the Biden Plan (Biden & Sanders, 2020).

With the exception of Norway and Chile, none of the countries we analysed have submitted a stronger NDC target to the UNFCCC . If countries commit to and achieve more ambitious NDC 7

targets by 2030, global temperature increase could be further limited.

Table 1: List of 12 net zero targets assessed in detail for countries covered in the Climate Action Tracker (CAT)

Country Type of net zero target

Target year

Assumption on LULUCF Assumptions on GHG emissions excluding LULUCF

China Net zero GHGs

2060 We used a ten-year historical average based on GHG inventory data from 2004 to 2014. The average of LULUCF emissions in those years is -783Mt, which we assumed as a value for 2050 and 2060. This estimate is consistent with the projections of Tsinghua University (Jiankun, 2020), which show a sink of 780Mt in those years.

We apply a linear interpolation of all GHG emission between 2030 and 2050 to balance LULUCF sinks in 2050. We use the average of the NDC non-fossil fuel and the NDC peaking pledge in 2030 as the starting point.

United States

Net zero GHGs

2050 We extrapolated the trend of 1990-2018 to 2050, which resulted in a sink of -643 MtCO2e in 2050.

We assume that power sector emissions fall linearly between 2025 and 2035, when these fall to zero, and apply a linear interpolation of all remaining GHG emissions between 2025 and 2050 to balance LULUCF sinks in 2050. We use the upper limited of the Post-COVID Current Policy Projection in 2025 as the starting point for both trajectories.

Canada Net zero GHGs

2050 We used the 2030 projection from the 4th Biennial Report for the 2050 estimate and assumed emissions to be -10 MtCO2e (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2020).

We assumed a linear decline in total GHGs between 2030 and 2050 to balance LULUCF emissions in 2050.

See the CAT’s Climate Target Update Tracker for details available at: https://climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-7tracker.


https://climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-tracker

https://climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-tracker

Chile Net zero GHGs

2050 We used national projections for 2050 presented in the updated NDC and Climate Neutrality Plan of 2020 and assumed LULUCF emissions to be -61 MtCO2e (Ministerio de Energia del Gobierno de Chile, 2020).

We used national projections for all GHG emission 2050 presented in the updated NDC and Climate Neutrality Plan of 2020 to balance LULUCF sinks in 2050 (Ministerio de Energia del Gobierno de Chile, 2020).

Costa Rica Net zero GHGs

2050 We used national projections for 2050, as provided for in the 2018 Decarbonization Strategy and assumed LULUCF emissions to be –6Mt by 2050 (Gobierno de Costa Rica, 2019).

We used national projections for 2050, as provided for in the 2018 Decarbonization Strategy, to balance LULUCF sinks in 2050 (Gobierno de Costa Rica, 2019). We use the upper limited of the NDC in 2030 as the starting point.

EU Net zero GHGs

2050 The EU’s projection for its 1.5LIFE scenario is a sink of 464 MtCO2 in 2050 (European Commission, 2018)

We used the EU’s own projections for 2050 excluding LULUCF, from the 1.5LIFE scenario (European Commission, 2018).

Japan Net zero GHGs

2050 We extrapolated the 2009-2018 trend to 2030 resulting in -35 MtCO2e and assumed that the sink will be at 2030 levels by 2050.

We applied a linear interpolation of all GHG emission between 2030 and 2050 to balance LULUCF sinks in 2050. We used the upper limit of the Post-COVID Current Policy Projection in 2030 as the starting point.

South Korea Net zero GHGs

2050 We extrapolated the 2008-2017 trend to 2030 resulting in -17 MtCO2e and assumed that the sink will be at 2030 levels by 2050.

We applied a linear interpolation of all GHG emission between 2030 and 2050 to balance LULUCF sinks in 2050. We assumed that non-CO2 emissions will decrease at a linear rate to zero by 2070. We used the upper limit of the NDC in 2030 as the starting point.

South Africa Net zero CO2 2050 We used a ten-year historical average based on national inventory data from 2005-2015 resulting in -16 MtCO2e.

We assumed that CO2 emissions will decline at a linear rate between 2030 and 2050 to balance LULUCF sinks in 2050. We assume that non-CO2 emissions will decline at a linear rate between 2030 and 2080 in line with the IPCC SR1.5 pathways. We use the upper limit of the Post-COVID Current Policy Projection in 2030 as the starting point.

Switzerland Net zero GHGs

2050 We used the “with existing measures” projection for 2030 from the 4th Biennial Report (emissions of 1 MtCO2/yr) and assumed the same value for 2050 (Schweizerische Eidgenossenschaft, 2020)

We assumed a linear decline in total GHGs between 2030 and 2050 to balance LULUCF emissions in 2050.

New Zealand Net zero GHG, with the exception of CH4 from agriculture and waste

2050 We used national projection for 2050 (Ministry for the Environment of New Zealand, 2020), harmonised to historical data, giving a sink in 2050 of 31 MtCO2.

We assume that GHG emissions excluding methane from agriculture and waste and LULUCF follow a linear decline from 2030 to 2050, to balance LULUCF removals in 2050. We take the upper end of New Zealand’s target for biogenic methane (47% reduction from 2017 levels).

Norway GHGs reduce by 90-95%, compared to 1990. We assumed that LULUCF emissions are included in this target.

2050 We used a projection from NIBIO, which gives a sink in 2050 of 20 MtCO2 (Søgaard et al., 2019).

We assume a linear decline in GHG emissions excluding LULUCF between 2030 and 2050, such that total emissions in 2050 including LULUCF are 95% below 1990 levels.

Country Type of net zero target

Target year

Assumption on LULUCF Assumptions on GHG emissions excluding LULUCF


Table 2: List of all net zero targets included in the modelling runs for the global aggregation based on the ECIU (2020) as of 23 November 2020 complemented by CAT analysis for 12 CAT countries in Table 1.

*Note: All Member States of the EU27 and the United Kingdom are included in the modelling runs through EU28, not individually.

Country Status Target year

#1 - Modelling run incl. net zero targets of all 127 countries

#2 – Modelling run incl. net zero targets of 12 CAT countries incl. USA

#3 – Modelling run incl. net zero targets of 11 CAT countries excl. USA

Afghanistan Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Angola Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Antigua and Barbuda

Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Argentina Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Armenia Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Austria* In Policy Document 2040 No No No

Bahamas (the) Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Bangladesh Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Barbados Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Belgium* Under Discussion 2050 No No No

Belize Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Benin Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Bhutan In Policy Document Yes No No

Bulgaria* Under Discussion 2050 No No No

Burkina Faso Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Burundi Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Cabo Verde Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Cambodia Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Canada Proposed legislation 2050 Yes Yes Yes

Central African Republic (the)


Chad Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

ChileProposed Legislation 2050 Yes Yes Yes

ChinaUnder Discussion (announcement by head of state)

2060 Yes Yes Yes

Colombia Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No


Comoros (the) Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Congo (the Democratic Republic of the)


Cook Islands (the) Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Costa Rica In Policy Document 2050 Yes Yes Yes

Croatia* Under Discussion 2050 No No No

Cyprus* Under Discussion 2050 No No No

Czechia* Under Discussion 2050 No No No

Denmark* In Law 2050 No No No

Djibouti Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Dominica Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Dominican Republic (the)


Ecuador Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Eritrea Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Estonia* Under Discussion 2050 No No No

Ethiopia Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

European UnionProposed Legislation 2050 Yes Yes Yes

FijiProposed Legislation 2050 Yes No No

Finland* In Policy Document 2035 No No No

France* In Law 2050 No No No

Gambia (the) Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Germany* In Policy Document 2050 No No No

Greece* Under Discussion 2050 No No No

Grenada Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Guinea Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Guinea-Bissau Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Guyana Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Haiti Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No






Hungary* In Law 2050 No No No

Iceland In Policy Document 2040 Yes No No

Ireland* In Policy Document 2050 No No No

Italy* Under Discussion 2050 No No No

Jamaica Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

JapanUnder Discussion (announcement by head of state)

2050 Yes Yes Yes

Kiribati Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Korea (the Republic of)

Under Discussion (announcement by head of state)

2050 Yes Yes Yes

Lao People's Democratic Republic (the)


Latvia* Under Discussion 2050 No No No

Lebanon Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Lesotho Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Liberia Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Lithuania* Under Discussion 2050 No No No

Luxembourg* Under Discussion 2050 No No No

Madagascar Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Malawi Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Maldives Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Mali Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Malta* Under Discussion 2050 No No No

Marshall Islands (the)

In Policy Document 2050 Yes No No

Mauritania Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Mauritius Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Mexico Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Micronesia (Federated States of)







Monaco Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Mozambique Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Myanmar Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Namibia Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Nauru Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Nepal Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Netherlands (the)* Under Discussion 2050 No No No

New Zealand In Law 2050 Yes Yes Yes

Nicaragua Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Niger (the) Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Niue Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Norway In Policy Document 2050 Yes Yes Yes

Pakistan Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Palau Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Papua New Guinea Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Peru Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Portugal* In Policy Document 2050 No No No

Romania* Under Discussion 2050 No No No

Rwanda Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Saint Kitts and Nevis


Saint Lucia Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines


Samoa Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Sao Tome and Principe


Senegal Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Seychelles Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Sierra Leone Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No






Slovakia* Under Discussion 2050 No No No

Slovenia* In Policy Document 2050 No No No

Solomon Islands Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Somalia Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

South Africa In Policy Document 2050 Yes Yes Yes

South Sudan Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Spain*Proposed Legislation 2050 No No No

Sudan (the) Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Suriname In Policy Document Yes No No

Sweden* In Law 2045 No No No

Switzerland In Policy Document 2050 Yes Yes Yes

Tanzania, United Republic of


Timor-Leste Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Togo Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Tonga Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Trinidad and Tobago


Tuvalu Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Uganda Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (the)*

In Law 2050 No No No

United States of America (the)

Under Discussion (‘Biden Plan’ by President-Elect)

2050 Yes Yes No

Uruguay Under Discussion 2030 Yes No No

Vanuatu Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Yemen Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No

Zambia Under Discussion 2050 Yes No No







The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) is an independent scientific analysis produced by two research organisations tracking climate action since 2009. We track progress towards the globally agreed aim of holding warming well below 2°C, and pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.

climateactiontracker.org

NewClimate Institute is a non-profit institute established in 2014. NewClimate Institute supports research and implementation of action against climate change around the globe, covering the topics international climate negotiations, tracking climate action, climate and development, climate finance and carbon market mechanisms. NewClimate Institute aims at connecting up-to-date research with the real world decision making processes.

Contact: Prof. Dr. Niklas Höhne, +49 173 715 2279

newclimate.org

Climate Analytics is a non-profit climate science and policy institute based in Berlin, Germany with offices in New York, USA, Lomé, Togo and Perth, Australia, which brings together interdisciplinary expertise in the scientific and policy aspects of climate change. Climate Analytics aims to synthesise and advance scientific knowledge in the area of climate, and by linking scientific and policy analysis provide state-of-the-art solutions to global and national climate change policy challenges.

Contact: Dr. h.c. Bill Hare, +49 160 908 62463

climateanalytics.org


The Consortium

The Consortium

Climate Analytics Claire Fyson Andreas Geiges Matthew Gidden Bill Hare Deborah Ramalope Claire Stockwell

NewClimate Institute Sofia Gonzales Zuñiga Frederic Hans Niklas Höhne Louise Jeffery Silke Mooldijk Leonardo Nascimento

Editing & Design Cindy Baxter Matt Beer

All names are in alphabetical order

http://climateactiontracker.org

http://www.newclimate.org/

http://www.newclimate.org/

http://www.climateanalytics.org/

http://climateactiontracker.org

http://www.climateanalytics.org/

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