paraguay - economia.gov.py€¦ · •graph 3: exports of beef, by type of product (january to...

Paraguay

International Trade Report January-April 2015

MH / SSEE / DI / DECI – APRIL 2015

International Trade Report (ITR) Directorate of Integration – Dep. of Commerce Strategies and Integration

INDEX

•Graph 1: Evolution of Exports (January to April 2011-2015) •Graph 2: Exports by major trade blocs and countries (January to April 2014/2015) •Chart 1: Exports by major trade blocs and countries (January to April 2014/2015) •Chart 2: Exports by major group of products (January to April 2014/2015) •Chart 3: Exports by factor intensity (January to April 2014/2015) •Chart 4: Top products exported to Brazil (January to April 2014/2015) •Chart 5: Top products exported to Argentina (January to April 2014/2015) •Chart 6: Top products exported to Uruguay (January to April 2014/2015) •Graph 3: Exports of beef, by type of product (January to April 2014/2015)

•Graph 4: Evolution of imports (January to April 2011-2015) •Graph 5: Imports by major trade blocs and countries (January to April 2014/2015) •Chart 7: Imports by major trade blocs and countries (January to April 2014/2015) •Chart 8: Imports by major group of products (January to April 2014/2015) •Chart 9: Imports by factor intensity (January to April 2014/2015)

•Graph 6: Soybean, maize, and wheat monthly US price (USD/t) •Graph 7: Oil monthly price (OPEC basket price) •Graph 8: Beef monthly price in the US market (USD/t) •Graph 9: Balance of trade of Paraguay (April 2014/2015) •Graph 10: Balance of trade of Paraguay and its MERCOSUR partners •Graph 11: Currency exchange rates (PYG-BRL-ARS/USD)

EXPORTS

IMPORTS

INDICATORS


Exports January to April 2014/2015


Graph 1: Evolution of Exports (January to April 2011-2015)* Millions FOB (USD)

Source: DI-MF, based on preliminary data reported by the CBP1 and UEW2 (2015) Note: * Exports of electricity not included. 1 Central Bank of Paraguay 2 Unified Exports Window

Total exports of Paraguay in April 2015 was 47% lower than in the same month of the previous year (2014) due to less sales of oilseeds and vegetable fats, oils, and pellets.

Month 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

January 253 335 467 551 593 February 360 310 565 684 634 March 538 441 655 769 717 April 502 428 734 912 485

Total 1,654 1,515 2,421 2,916 2,430

1,654 1,515

2,421

2,916

2,430

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Graph 2: Exports by major trade blocs and countries*

The top destiny for Paraguayan exports in the period January-April 2015 was the group of Countries Associated to MERCOSUR (USD 566 million), followed by the European Union (USD 562 million), and MERCOSR in the third place (USD 480 million). These 3 major trade blocs represented 66% of total exports in this period.

Source: DI-MF, based on preliminary data reported by the CBP and UEW (2015) Note: * Exports of electricity not included.

January-April 2014 January-April 2015

1 EU-28: European Union with 28 member countries. 2 MERCOSUR; Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, and Uruguay 3 Countries Associated to MERCOSUR (Assoc. to MCS). It is included Regional Partners: Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, and overseas partners: Israel, Egypt, India and SACU (Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland) 4 ASEAN: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Laos, Vietnam, Myanmar, and Cambodia. 5 NAFTA: Canada, USA, and Mexico 6 Other: Rest of the world.

MERCOSUR2 22%

ASEAN4 5%

Assoc. to MCS3 18%

China 0.4%

Russia 10%

Other6 16%

NAFTA5 2%

EU - 281 27%

MERCOSUR2 20% ASEAN4

2%

Assoc. to MCS3 23%

China 0.4%

Russia 12%

Other6 15%

NAFTA5 4%

EU - 281 23%


The decline of total Paraguayan exports in the period of January-April 2015, compared to the same period in 2014, was due to the decrease of exports to the EU (-27%) and to MERCOSUR (-25%), which had the biggest impact on exports change.

Chart 1: Exports by major trade blocs and countries (January to April 2014/2015)* Millions FOB (USD)

Regions Millions (FOB) January-April Percent change

2014/205 Impact on

exports change 2014 2015

EU – 281 773 562 -27 -7.0 MERCOSUR2 641 480 -25 -6.0 Russia 293 299 2 0.2 Associated to MCS3 529 566 7 1.0 ASEAN4 132 53 -60 -3.0

NAFTA5 67 98 47 1.0

China 10 11 5 0,02

Other 471 361 -23 -4.0

Total 2,916 2,430 -17 -17

Source: DI-MF, based on preliminary data reported by the CBP and UEW (2015) Note: * Exports of electricity not included. 1 EU-28: European Union with 28 member countries. 2 MERCOSUR; Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, and Uruguay 3 Countries Associated to MERCOSUR (Assoc. to MCS). It is included Regional Partners: Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, and overseas partners: Israel, Egypt, India and SACU (Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland) 4 ASEAN: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Laos, Vietnam, Myanmar, and Cambodia. 5 NAFTA: Canada, USA, and Mexico 6 Other: Rest of the world.


Chart 2: Exports by major group of products (January to April 2014/2015)* Millions FOB (USD)

January-April 2015 (%)


Oilseeds (37%); vegetables fats, oil, and pellets (19%); and beef products accounted for the major portion of Paraguayan exports (75%).

Exports of oilseeds decreased by 22%, and it had the biggest impact on total exports decline.

Products Millions (USD) January-April Percent

change

Impact on exports change

(%) 2014 2015 Oilseeds 1,148 893 -22 -9.0 Vegetable fats, oils, and pellets 636 471 -26 -6.0 Beef products 437 466 7 1.0 Maize 178 92 -48 -3.0 Leather 92 77 -17 -1.0 Chemicals, rubber, and plastics 78 64 -18 -0.5 Machinery 38 48 26 0.3 Wheat 7 44 573 1.0 Textiles 34 38 13 0.2 Processed rice 41 32 -23 -0.3 Other 229 206 -10 -1.0

Total 2,916 2,430 -17 -17

Source: DI-MF, based on preliminary data reported by the CBP and UEW (2015) Note: * Exports of electricity not included

Oilseeds 39%

Vegetable fats and oil 22%

Beef products 15%

Maize 6%

Leather 3%

Other 15%

Oilseeds 37%

Vegetable fats and oil 19%

Beef products 19%

Maize 4%

Leather 3%

Other 18%


Chart 3: Exports by factor intensity (January to April 2014/2015)* Millions FOB (USD)

Agriculture and agro-industry accounted for the biggest portion of Paraguayan export revenues during the first fourth months of 2015.

Agriculture contributed 45 cents for each dollar generated by exports, and agro-industry contributed 43 cents per dollar.

Note: each sector includes 1 Agriculture: soybeans; maize; and wheat. 2 Agro-industry: soy flour and pellet; beef (frozen and refrigerated); and gross soy oil. 3 Labor-Intensive Manufacturing (LIM): bovine leather and skin; footwear parts; and wood. 4 Capital-Intensive Manufacturing (KIM): plastic demijohns; waste of copper, and several metals foundry.



Sectors Millions (USD) January-April Percent

change

Impact on exports change 2014 2015

Agriculture1 1,413 1,098 -22 -11

Agro-industry2 1,202 1,042 -13 -5.0

Labor-Intensive Manufacturing3 162 151 -7.0 -0.4

Capital-Intensive Manufacturing4 139 139 -0.2 -0.01

Total 2,916 2,430 -17 -17


Agriculture1 48%

Agro-industry2 41%

Labor-intensive industry3

6%

Capital-intensive industry4

5%

Agriculture1 45%

Agro-industry2 43%

Labor-intensive industry3

6%

Capital-intensive industry4

6%


The top four products exported to Brazil – soybeans, refrigerated beef, cables for spark plugs, and rice – represented 56% of total exports to this country.

Refrigerated beef and cables for spark plugs registered the highest rate of growth, 16% and 32%, respectively.

Chart 4: Top products exported to Brazil (January to April 2014/2015)* Millions FOB (USD)

Products Millions (USD) January-April

Participation (%) January-April Percent change

2014/2015 2014 2015 2014 2015

Soybeans 183 89 36 23 -52 Refrigerated beef 44 51 9 13 16 Cables for spark plugs 31 41 6 10 32 Rice 54 39 11 10 -27 Wheat 6 19 1 5 202 Plastic containers 18 18 4 5 0.1 Synthetic blankets 5 13 1 3 153 Frozen beef 8 9 2 2 12 Maize 32 8 6 2 -76 Animal fat 6 7 1 2 35 Other 120 98 24 25 -19

Total 507 391 100 100 -23



Chart 5: Top products exported to Argentina (January to April 2014/2015)* Millions FOB (USD)

Products Millions (USD) January-April

Participation (%) January-April Percent change

2014/2015 2014 2015 2014 2015

Gross soybean oil - 5 - 13 - Papers and cartons 3 4 9 11 29 Filter for cigarettes 3 4 8 9 25 Bovine leather 2 3 6 6 22 Bananas 1 3 2 6 251 Foundry waste - 2 - 6 - Plastic containers 2 2 4 5 24 Glass demijohns 5 2 12 5 -59 Stones 3 2 7 4 -37 Seats 3 2 7 4 -39 Other 17 13 46 31 -28

Total 38 40 100 100 6


Exports to Argentina is more diverse. The top 5 products sent to Argentina represented less than half (45%) of total exports to this country in the period January-April 2015.

Among these products, exports of bananas were the most dynamic ones. They leaped from USD 0.7 million in the period January-April 2014, to USD 3 million during the same period in 2015.


Chart 6: Top products exported to Uruguay (January to April 2014/2015)* Millions FOB (USD)

Fuente: DI-MF, based on preliminary data reported by the CBP and the UEW (2015) Note: *Exports of electricity not included

Exports of gross soybean oil and bovine leather to Uruguay registered the highest rate of growth during the period January-April 2015.

However, total exports to Uruguay decreased by 28% compared to the same period in 2014.

Products Millions

January-April Participation (%)

January-April Percent change

2014/2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 Soybean pellets and flour 3.4 2.2 21 21 -28 Tobacco (dry limb and leaves) 2.8 1.6 19 17 -32 Maize 0.5 0.7 15 9 -54 Gross soybean oil 0.4 0.8 4 9 44 Foot-and-mouth disease vaccinations 0.8 0.6 - 7 - Bran of leguminous 0.7 0.5 4 4 -35 Bovine leather 0.0 0.3 3 5 53 Wheat - 0.2 - 3 - Cotton trousers 0.1 0.1 1 3 31 Electrical transformers - 0.1 3 3 -34 Other 2.7 1.6 31 19 -56

Total 11 9 100 100 -28


Graph 3: Exports of beef, by type of product ( January to April 2014/2015) Millions FOB (USD)

Exports of beef increased by 7% during the period January-April 2015 compared to the same period in 2014.

Source: DI-MF, based on preliminary data reported by the CBP and UEW (2015)

141

265

30

437

165

267

35

466

Refrigerated beef Frozen beef Other Total

Jan-Apr 2014 Jan-Apr 2015


Imports January to April 2014/2015


Graph 4: Evolution of imports (January to April 2011-2015) Millions CIF (USD)

Total imports during the period January-April 2015 decreased by 7% compared to the same period in 2014.

Average imports in the period January-April in the last five years was USD 3,709 million.

Month 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

January 878 844 1,078 937 884 February 860 828 950 922 836 March 960 959 937 931 895 April 949 932 1,135 964 869

Total 3,647 3,562 4,100 3,753 3,484

Source: DI-MF, based on preliminary data reported by the CBP (2015)

3,647 3,562

4,100

3,753

3,484

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


MERCOSUR trade bloc was the major supplier of Paraguay in the period January-April 2015. Total imports from this trade bloc accounted for USD 1,392 million in this period.

China was the second supplier of Paraguay. Imports from this country totaled USD 866 million in the same period.

Graph 5: Imports by major trade blocs and countries

January-April 2014 January-April 2015

Source: DI-MF, based on preliminary data reported by the CBP (2015) 1 EU-28: European Union with 28 member countries. 2 MERCOSUR; Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, and Uruguay 3 Countries Associated to MERCOSUR (Assoc. to MCS). It is included Regional Partners: Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, and overseas partners: Israel, Egypt, India and SACU (Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland) 4 ASEAN: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Laos, Vietnam, Myanmar, and Cambodia. 5 NAFTA: Canada, USA, and Mexico 6 Other: Rest of the world.

MERCOSUR1 44%

ASEAN5 2%

China 26%

Assoc. to MCS4 3%

Russia 1%

Other6 8%

NAFTA3 8%

EU-282 8%

MERCOSUR1 40%

ASEAN5 2%

China 25%

Assoc. to MCS4 4%

Russia 3%

Other6 9%

NAFTA3 8%

EU-282 9%


Chart 7: Imports by major trade blocs and countries (January to April 2014/2015) Millions CIF (USD)

The decline of total imports was due to the decrease of imports from MERCOSUR and China, which registered the sharpest decrease, and represented 65% of total imports.

Imports from these two origins totaled USD 2,225 in the period January-April 2015.

Regions Millions (USD) January-April Percent

change

Impact on imports change

2015/2014 2014 2015 EU-281 314 317 1.0 0.1 MERCOSUR2 1,658 1,392 -16 -7.1 Russia 48 108 127 1.6 Assoc. to MCS3 117 147 26 0.8 ASEAN4 70 64 -8.0 -0.2 NAFTA5 298 294 -2.0 -0.1 China 965 866 -10 -2.7 Other6 283 296 5.0 0.4

Total 3,753 3,484 -7 -7

Source: DI-MF, based on preliminary data reported by the CBP (2015) 1 EU-28: European Union with 28 member countries. 2 MERCOSUR; Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, and Uruguay 3 Countries Associated to MERCOSUR (Assoc. to MCS). It is included Regional Partners: Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, and overseas partners: Israel, Egypt, India and SACU (Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland) 4 ASEAN: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Laos, Vietnam, Myanmar, and Cambodia. 5 NAFTA: Canada, USA, and Mexico 6 Other: Rest of the world.


Chemicals, machinery, petroleum, and electronic devices represented the major portion (62%) of Paraguayan imports.

Imports decline is explained by the decrease of purchase of electronic devices (-23%) and petroleum (-15%).

Chart 8: Imports by major group of products (January to April 2014/2015) Millions CIF (USD) January-April 2015 (%)


Products Millions (USD) January-April Percent

change


2014/2015 2014 2015 Chemicals, rubber, and plastic 710 700 -1.0 -0.3 Machinery and equipment 587 583 -1.0 -0.1 Coal and petroleum products 586 496 -15 -2.0 Electronic devices 507 390 -23 -3.0 Vechiles and their pieces 331 312 -6.0 -1.0 Other manufacturings 117 124 6.0 0.2 Food products 114 110 -4.0 -0.1 Ferrous metals 117 92 -21 -1.0 Beverages and tobacco 80 91 14 0.3 Textiles 85 82 -4.0 -0.1 Other 518 504 -3.0 -0.4

Total 3,753 3,484 -7 -7


Chemicals, rubber, and

plastics 19%

Machinery and equipment

16%

Coal and petroleum prod.

14%

Electronic devices

11%

Vehicles 9%

Other 29%

Chemicals, rubber, and

plastics 19%

Machinery and equipment

16%

Coal and petroleum prod.

16%

Electronic devices

13%

Vehicles 9%

Other 27%


Chart 9: Imports by factor intensity (January to April 2014/2015) Millions CIF (USD)

The decline of total imports in the period January-April 2015 (-7%), compared to the same period in 2014, can be explained by lower imports of capital-intensive manufacturing.



Sectors Millions (USD) January-April Percent

change


2015/2014 2014 2015 Agriculture1 98 79 -19 -0.5

Agro-industry2 213 221 4.0 0.2

Labor-Intensive Manuf.3 259 249 -4.0 -0.3

Capital-Intensive Manuf.4 3,184 2,934 -8.0 -6.6

Total 3,753 3,484 -7 -7


Note: each sector includes 1 Agriculture: soybeans; maize; and wheat. 2 Agro-industry: soy flour and pellet; beef (frozen and refrigerated); and gross soy oil. 3 Labor-Intensive Manufacturing (LIM): bovine leather and skin; footwear parts; and wood. 4 Capital-Intensive Manufacturing (KIM): plastic demijohns; waste of copper, and several metals foundry.

Agriculture1 2%

Agro-industry2 7%

Labor-intensive manuf.3

7%

Capital-intensive manuf.4

84%

Agriculture1 2%

Agroi-industry2

6% Labor-

intensive manuf.3

7%

Capital-intensive manuf.4

85%


Selected Indicators


The price of soybeans, maize, and wheat decreased by 35%, 23%, and 31%, respectively, in April 2015 compared to the same month of 2014.

Graph 6: Soybean, maize, and wheat monthly price (USD/t) (Index January 2012 = 100%)


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Soybeans Maize Wheat


The price of crude oil per barrel has been declining since July 2014 and registered the lowest price in January 2015 (USD 44 per barrel). However, it started to recover since April 2015.

Nevertheless, the oil price in April 2015 was 45% lower compared to the same month in 2014.

Graph 7: Oil monthly price (OPEC basket price)

Source: OPEC basket price

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The price of beef in the US market reached its highest value in August 2014 after being stable during the last two years. However, it started to decline since September 2015.

The price kept declining during the first quarter of 2015, and it seems like the it would maintain its 2013 trend.

Graph 8: Beef monthly price in the US market (USD/t) (Index January 2012 = 100%)

Source: DI-MF, based on data reported by the US Department of Agriculture

3,000

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2,916

3,753

-837

2,430

3,484

-1,054

Exports Imports Balance of Trade

Jan-Apr. 2014 Jan.-Apr. 2015

Graph 9: Balance of trade of Paraguay (January to April 2014/2015)* Millions (USD)

Paraguayan total exports decreased by 16% during the period January-April 2015 compared to the same period of 2014, whilst imports decreased by 7% in the same period. This change in exports and imports led to an increase of the trade deficit by 26%.



-625

-443

19 31

-1,018

-436 -494

17 2

-911

Brazil Argentina Uruguay Venezuela Balance of Trade

Jan.-Apr. 2014 Jan.-Apr. 2015

Graph 10: Balance of trade of Paraguay and its MERCOSUR partners* Millions (USD)

January-April 2015/2014

The trade deficit of Paraguay with its MERCOSUR partners during the period January-April 2015 decreased by 10% compared to the same period in 2014.



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Graph 11: Currency exchange rates (PYG-BRL-ARS/USD)*

Source: DI-MF, based on data reported by the Central Bank *Monthly exchange rate

The Paraguayan currency, the Guarani, depreciated by 12% in April 2015 in relation to the US dollar. However, the accumulated depreciation rate during the first four months of 2015 was 4%.

(Index January 2008 = 100%)

Peso (Argentina)

Real (Brazil)

Guarani (Paraguay)


Paraguay

International Trade Report January-April 2015

MH / SSEE / DI / DECI – APRIL 2015

paraguay - economia.gov.py€¦ · •graph 3: exports of beef, by type of product (january to...

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