1. A Presantation of Grand Project on A Study on Impact of NPA on Profitability and Liquidity In Public Sector Banks Project Guide Prof. Ranjani SrinivasanSubmitted By Ketan DhameliyaPankaj KamaliyaS.K.Patel Institute Of Management and Computer Studies

2. == Research Paper Published in Inventi Journals == Inventi Rapid: Microfinance & Banking Vol. 2013, Issue 2 [ISSN 2231- 2641] CCC: $10 Inventi Journals (P) Ltd Published on Web 19/03/2013, www.inventi.in 3. == Flow of Presentation == Chapter 1. Introduction Meaning of NPA Introduction of Indian Banking Industry Procedures for NPA Identification And Resolution In India Chapter 2. Review Of Literatures Chapter 3. Research Methodology Scope of the study Objective of Study Methodology Tools and Techniques Chapter 4. Data Base and Methodology Hypothesis of the Study Chapter 5. Finding Chapter 6. Conclusion Chapter 7. References 4. == Chapter 1. Introduction == == Meaning of NPA== Interest and or installment of principal remain overdue for a period of more than 180 days in respect of a Term Loan. The account remains 'out of order' for a period of more than 180 days, in respect of an overdraft/ cash Credit(OD/CC), The bill remains overdue for a period of more than 180 days in the case of bills purchased and discounted, Any amount to be received remains overdue for a period of more than 180 days in respect of other accounts. With a view to moving towards international best practices and to ensure greater transparency, it has been decided to adopt the '90 days overdue' norm for identification of NPAs. 5. == Introduction of Indian Banking Industry == Structure Of Indian Banking Industry Aggregate Performance of the Banking Industry Challenges facing by banking industry Deregulation New Rules Efficiency Diffused customer loyalty Misaligned mindset Competency gapClassification of Assets Standard Assets Categories of NPAs Sub-standard Asset Doubtful Asset Loss Asset 6. == Types NPA == Types Of Npa Gross NPA Net NPA == Impact of NPA == Impact Of Npa Profitability Liquidity 7. == Procedures for NPA Identification And Resolution In India ==Internal Checks and Control Relationship Manager/Credit Officer Know your client' profile (KYC) Credit Rating System Watch-list/Special Mention Category Monitoring of early warning signals Financial Operational Banking Management and External factorsWillful Defaulters Debt Recovery Tribunals Lokadalats 8. == Chapter 2. Review Of Literatures == SerialAuthorTopic Name1Dr. A. Shyamal a(June ; 2012))Npas in indian banking sector: impact on profitabilityReview of literature :-1Data & SampleMethodologyConclusionTypes of data: secondary data years :2000-2010 Area under study: SBI Group, Nationalized Banks Group and Private Banks Group Scope: Indian banking sector for 10 year Objective: To analyze the impact of nonperforming assets on the profitability of banks.The data has been analyzed using ratio. 1)Ratio of Gross NPA to Gross Advances ii) Ratio of Net NPA to Net Advances iii) Ratio of Gross NPA to Total Assets iv) Ratio of Net NPA to Total AssetsYes (Nationalize d bank group has secured the first place and the second place was taken by SBI and its Associates) 9. 2Mahipa l Singh Yadav, ( June, 2011)Impact of Non Performing Assets on Profitability and Productvity of Public Sector Banks in India Review of literature :-2Types of data: secondary data years : 19942006 Area under study: public sector banks Scope: Indian banking sector for 10 year Objective: -To evaluate the impact of nonperforming assets on profitability with other variables;Regression equation Y = a + b1X1 + u....(1) X1= Gross non- performing asset as percentage of total asset a= intercept, b=regression parameter; u= standard error Y = a + b1 X1 + b2 X2 + b3 X3 + u------------ (2) X2= priority sector as a percentage of total asset. X3= non- priority sector as a percentage of total asset. Y = a + b1X1+ b2 X2 + b3 X3 + b4 X4+ b5X5 + b6X6 + b7X7 + u -----(3) Y = a + b1X1 + u -----(4) Y = a + b1 X1+ u-----(5)Yes (nonperformin g assets in public sector banks affects fifty percent profitabilit ) 10. 3 (1)Siraj. K.K (2)Prof. (Dr). P. Sudarsan an Pillai, (March| 2012)A Study on the Performan ce of NonPerformin g Assets (NPAs) of Indian Banking During Post Millenniu m PeriodTypes of data: secondary data years : March 2001 to March 2011 Area under study: Commercial Banks is composed of State Bank of India & Associates, Nationalized Banks, Private Sector Banks and Foreign Banks. Scope: Indian banking sector& Foreign Banks for 10 year Objective: Impact of NPA1)AAG (Average Annual Growth Rate). 2)regression equation Gross Advances (XGD) Total Deposits (XTD) Additions to NPA (XANPA).Yes(NPA remained as an area of concern as it indicates the real efficiency of credit risk managem ent)Review of literature :-3 11. 4(1)DR.H OSMANI (2)MR.J AGADIS H HUDAGI (Decem ber 2011,)Unearthin g the epidemic of non-per forming assets -a study with reference to public sector banks in indiaReview of literature :-4Types of data: secondary data years : 2005-2010. Area under study: Non performing assets in Commercial banks operating in India wise public sector banks has been taken in to account Scope: Indian banking sector for 5 year Objective 1.To study the magnitude and trend of NPA of Public sector banks in India. 2. To evaluate the asset portfolio and NPA proportion of Public sector bank1).Average, 2).ANOVA, 3).correlatio n, and 4).comparati ve percentage analysis.Yes (The study conducted on the topic unearthing the epidemic of non performing assets with reference to public sector banks in India, found that there is a slight improvement in the asset quality reflected by decline in the diverse NPA percentage.) 12. 5 1.)Namit a Rajput 2.)Monik a Gupta 3.) Mr. Ajay Kumar ChauhanProfitabi lity And Credit Culture Of Npas: An Empirical Analysis Of PsbsReview of literature :-5Types of data: secondary data years : 1997-2010) Area under study: Commercial Banks, Public sector banks, private sector banks and foreign banks Scope: Indian banking sector for 13 year Objective: 1.) To analyze the nature, extent and magnitude of NPA in Indian banking sector. 2.) To examine the relationship between NPAs and profitability measure (ROA) of banks.1.)Y= a+b1x1+.. (i) Y=a+b2x2+u (ii) Where, Y= ROA (Return on Assets),a= constant term,b1 & b2 = Regression coefficients for the respective variables, x1 = GNPA Ratio and x2 = NNPA Ratio = Error Term 2.) Ratio 3.) ANOVAYes (An inverse relationship among profitability and nonperforming assets revealed the fact, that the bank can have an increasing trend of profitability only by the effective declining trend of NPAs) 13. 6 1.)Deba rshi Ghosh 2.)Suka nya GhoshManage ment Of NonPerformi ng Assets In Public Sector Banks: Evidence From IndiaReview of literature :-6Types of data: secondary 1) Ratio data 2) correla years : 2009-2010 tion Area under study: Public sector banks in India include seven banks under the State Bank of India group and twenty other nationalized banks. Scope: Indian banking sector for 1 year Objective: To study the trends in Gross Advances and Gross NPAs by various bank groups during the study period.Yes The pressing problem that banks all over the world are facing in recent times is spiraling of nonperforming assets. NPAs adversely affect lending activity of banks as non-recovery of loan installment and the interest on the loan harms the usefulness of loan-disbursement process. 14. 7 1.)Dr. Viplaw Kishore Pandey 2.) Mrs. Harme et KaurNpa In Banking Sector: Some Correlatio nal EvidenceReview of literature :-7Types of data: secondary data 1) Ratio years : 2001 to 2010, Analysis, Area under study: Public 2) Averages, Sector Banks 3) Correlations Priority Sector Non-Priority Private Sector Banks SectorScope: Indian banking sector for 10 year Objective: 1. To analyse the trends of NPAs in Priority and Non priority sector. 2. To find out the level of priority sector NPAs against priority sector credit by various bank groups.Yes (NPAs have been an immense problem for the Indian Banking Sector. Proper and effective managemen t of NPA is essential or else it can adversely affect the profitability of the banks.) 15. == Chapter 3. Research Methodology == == Scope of the study == This research report is based on historical data of public sector banks Source for the data is Trends and progress report of banking industry from RBI website. For the analysis the main NET NPA and NET PROFIT are being taken Area of research in banking industry very wide but our report is limited to these public sector banks only Time period of data is ten year its to get probable output and on the basis of this forecasting can be done. 16. == Objective of Study == To analyse the impact of non-performing assets on profitability and liquidity of banks at aggregate and sectoral level. To evaluate the impact of non-performing assets on profitability And liquidity with other variables. To examine the impact of non-performing assets on efficiency and productivity. To know the ratio of NPA and Advances of banks. 17. == Methodology == Types of data: secondary data. Sampling unit: - All public sector banks. Period of the study: 10 year (1/4/2002 to 31/3/2012). Data collection: journals, articles, internet, books.== Tools and Techniques == Descriptive test :Jarque-Bera, Kurtosis, SkewnessCorrelation analysis. Regression analysis. Pairwise Granger Causality Tests. Johansen Cointegration Test, and Ratio of NPA and Advances. 18. == Chapter 4. Data Base and Methodology ==== Hypothesis of the Study == Ho= There is no significant association between gross NPAs to gross advances of the public sector banks. Ho= There is no significant association between priority sector, non priority sector, public sector & from NPAs point of view. Ho= There is no significant reduction in the portion of gross NPAs to gross advances. Ho= There is no significant relation between Net NPA and NET PROFIT . 19. (1)To analysis the impact of Non-performing assets on profitability and liquidity of Public sector banks. Table-1: Net Npa to Net Profit of Public Sector Banks. (Amt in Crores) Source: Report On Trend And Progress of Banking In India from 2003 to 2012)Year 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12Net NPA 24877 19335 16904 14566 14145 17726 21033 29644 36071 39423Net Profit 12295 16546 15784 16539 20152 26592 34394 57109 70331 81700 20. Table No-1.1 : Descriptive Statistics Particulars Mean Median Std. Dev. Skewness Kurtosis Jarque-Bera ProbabilityNET NPA 23472.30 20184.00 8826.273 0.758552 2.151510 1.258974 0.532865NET PROFIT 35144.20 23372.00 25332.07 0.857480 2.150133 1.526400 0.466172Analysis: Jarque-Bera: From the Data it is clear that Probability is more than 0.05 thats show the data follow the normality in the past 10 year in NPA & PROFIT the probability is respectively 0.532 & 0.4466 thats show normally distributed. Kurtosis: Data follow the Leptokurtic. Here both variable NPA & PROFIT result is2.1589 &2.1501 respectively. Skewness: The standard of the test is in negative or positive here result shows positive in both the variable its show the normally distributed follow by data. 21. Table No-1.2: Correlation Analysis:NET NPA NET PROFITNET NPA 1 0.912NET PROFIT 1 Correlation result show the positive correlation between NET NPA and NET PROFIT its show the one of the objective to know the impact of npa on profitability its clear in result the Correlation is 0.912 is more than 0.800 the indicate high correlation between them 22. Table No-1.3: Regression analysis. The regression test on NET NPA and NET PROFIT show the R squared is .831569 means the both variable in the test show the relation between each other positive and data will effect with each other. Its show high relationship between NPA and PROFIT if the NPA increase the its affect the PROFIT margin of public sector Banks. Table No-1.4: Granger Causality Tests. Null HypothesisF-StatisticProbabilityDecisionNETPROFIT does not Granger Cause NETNPA0.079890.9251AcceptedNETNPA does not Granger Cause NETPROFIT.86378.5055Accepted Here in Net Profit to Net NPA the probability is 0.9251 means Accepted and NET NPA to NET PROFIT is 0.5055 the null hypostasis and will affected the each other, here if Net Profit Decreases its means the affected by NPA. 23. Table No-1.5: Johansen Cointegration Test. Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values 24. (2)To evaluate the impact of non-performing assets on profitability and liquidity with other variables. Table No-2: NPA of Priority, Non-priority, and Remaining Public to Net Profit (Amount in Crores) Year 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12Priority Sector 24939 23841 21926 22374 22954 25287 24318 30848 41245 48524Non-priority Sector 26781 25698 23249 18664 15158 14153 19251 25929 29803 34502Public Sector 1087 610 444 341 490 299 474 524 278 746Net Profit 12295 16546 15784 16539 20152 26592 34394 57109 70331 81700 25. Table No-2.1: Descriptive test. Mean Median Std. Dev. Skewness Kurtosis Jarque-Bera ProbabilityPRIORITY 28625.60 24628.50 9082.669 1.390414 3.408916 3.291758 0.192843NON PRIORITY 23318.80 24473.50 6501.273 0.111797 2.064054 0.385829 0.824553PUBLIC 529.3000 482.0000 242.2244 1.224214 3.841249 2.792707 0.247498NET PROFIT 35144.20 23372.00 25332.07 0.857480 2.150133 1.526400 0.466172Jarque-Bera :the past 10 year in NPA & PROFIT the probability is respectively in priority sector, Non priority sector & Public sector to Net Profit like 0.1928 & 0.82450 & 0.2474 & 0.4661 thats show normally distributed. Kurtosis: From data follow the Platykurtic the standard is less than 3 in both the variable like Non priority & Net Profit and more than 3 than data follow the Leptokurtic both variable priority sector and public sector result is 3.4089 &3.8141 respectively. Skewness: Here result shows positive in all the variable its show the normally distributed follow by data 26. Table No-2.2: Correlation Analysis. PRIORITY NON PRIORITY PUBLIC NET PROFITPRIORITY 1 0.77145 0.08411 0.94424NONPRIORITY PUBLIC 1 0.45452 0.65741 -0.09704NETPROFIT1Analysis: Correlation result show the positive correlation between PRIORITY and NET PROFIT and Average relation between NON PRIORITY and NET PROFIT and No correlation between PUBLIC SECTOR And NET PROFIT The one of the objective to know the impact of npa on profitability with other variable its clear in result. 27. Table No-2.3: Regression Test. Analysis: The regression test on NPA of Priority sector on-Priority sector and Public sector and NET PROFIT show the R squared is 0.922970 means the both variable in the test show the relation between each other is very high and data will effect with each other 28. Table No-2.4: Pairwise Granger Causality Tests. Null HypothesisF-StatisticProbabilityDecisionNETPROFIT does not Granger Cause PRIORITY11.95840.0372RejectedPRIORITY does not Granger Cause NETPROFIT3.78980.1510AcceptedNETPROFIT does not Granger Cause NONPRIORITY1.870850.2968AcceptedNONPRIORITY does not Granger Cause NETPROFIT13.12640.0328RejectedNETPROFIT does not Granger Cause PUBLIC1.570910.3414AcceptedPUBLIC does not Granger Cause NETPROFIT1.755640.3127AcceptedAnalysis: here in Net Profit to Priority Sector the probability is 0.0372 means Rejected the null and in NONPRIORITY sector to NETPROFIT rejected null. Other all have probability more than 0.05 so accepted null hypothesis 29. (3)To examine the impact of non-performing assets on efficiency and Liquidity. Table No-3: Gross NPA to Gross Advance and Ratio 0f Gross NPA to Gross Advance. (Amount in Crores) YearGross NPAGross Advance2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-1256,473 54,090 52,880 41,358 38,968 40,595 44,957 59,926 74,614 117,200577813 661975 877825 1134724 1464493 1819074 2282081 2736347 3265245 3645235Gross NPA To Gross Advances 6.85 7.79 5.53 3.64 2.66 2.23 2.19 2.23 2.5 3.1 30. Table No-3.1: Descriptive Statistics of Public sector bank. GROSS ADVANCEMean Median Std. Dev. Skewness Kurtosis Jarque-Bera ProbabilityGROSS NPA1846481.58106.101641784.53485.001097176.23429.140.3931841.7421661.7806275.1652520.8771867.0120380.6449430.030016Jarque-Bera: From the past 10 year in GROSS NPA & GROSS ADVANCES the probability is respectively 0.030016 & 0.644943 thats show normally distributed in GROSS ADVANCE and GROSS NPA Do not follow the normal distribution. Kurtosis: From the result it is clear that data follow the Platykurtic the standard is less than 3 in gross advances and gross NPA follow the Leptokurtic Skewness: The standard of the test is in negative or positive here result shows positive in both the variable its show the normally distributed follow by data 31. Table No-3.2: Correlation Analysis. GROSS ADVANCE GROSS NPAGROSS ADVANCE 1 0.67952GROSS NPA 1Analysis: Correlation result show the positive correlation between GROSS NPA and GROSS ADVANCE its show the one of the objective to know the liquidity impact of NPA in public sector Banks, its clear in result the Correlation is average. Table No-3.3: Regression analysis. Analysis: The regression test on GROSS ADVANCES and GROSS NPA show the R squared is0.461755 means the both variable in the test show the relation between each other are not positive and data will effect with each other is lesser. And Adjusted R-square is 0.394474 the show less relationship between GROSS ADVANCES and GROSS NPA if the GROSS NPA increase the does not affect the GROSS ADVANCES of public sector Banks. 32. Table No-3.4: Granger Causality Tests. Null HypothesisF-Statistic ProbabilityDecisionGROSS NPA does not Granger Cause GROSS ADVANCE4.226190.1341AcceptedGROSS ADVANCE does not Granger Cause GROSS NPA6.357240.0834AcceptedAnalysis: Here in GROSS NPA and GROSS ADVANCES the probability is 0.1341 means accepted the null hypostasis and in GROSS ADVANCES and GROSS NPA probability 0.0834 accepting the null hypostasis Table No-3.5: Johansen Cointegration test. Trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values 33. Ratio analysis of ratio between gross advances and gross NPARatio of last 10 year say of gross advances and gross NPA is high in 2002-03 to 2005-06 is approximately between in 2003-04 is 7.79 than after slowly decreases and low in year 2008-09 is 2.19.if we taken average of all the ratio is between 3.871 is good than individual year ratio. 34. (4)To know the ratio of NPA and Advances of public sector banks. Table No-4: Net NPA to Net Advance and Ratio of NPA and Advance.YearNet NPANet Advance2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-1224877 19335 16904 14566 15144 17726 21033 29644 36071 394235,49,351 6,31,383 8,48,912 11,06,128 14,40,123 17,97,504 22,60,156 26,32,236 32,03,125 35,21,563Net NPA To Net Advances 3.03 2.99 2.06 1.32 1.05 0.99 1.09 1.09 1.1 1.4 35. Table No-4.1: Descriptive Statistics of Public sector. Mean Median Std. Dev. Skewness Kurtosis Jarque-Bera ProbabilityNET ADVANCE 1799048. 1618814. 1068864. 0.362051 1.757141 0.862093 0.649829NET NPA 23472.30 20184.00 8826.273 0.758552 2.151510 1.258974 0.532865Analysis: Jarque-Bera: the past 10 year in NET ADVANCES and NET NPA the probability is respectively 0.64989 & 0.532865 thats show normally distributed. Kurtosis: From the result it is clear that data follow the Platykurtic the standard is less than 3 in both the variable Here both variable NET ADVANCE & NET NPA result is 1.757141 &2.151510 respectively. Skewness: The standard of the test is in negative or positive here result shows positive in both the variable its show the normally distributed follow by data. 36. Table No-4.2: Correlation Analysis. NETADVANCE NETNPANETADVANCE 1 0.7969NET NPA 1Analysis: Correlation result show the positive correlation between NET NPA and NET ADVANCE its show the one of the objective to know the impact of npa on liquidity its clear in result the Correlation is 0.7969 is more than 0.800 the indicate high correlation between them. Table No-4.3: Regression test. Analysis: The regression test on NET NPA and NET ADVANCE show the R squared is . 635160 means the both variable in the test show the relation between each other positive and data will effect with each other And Adjusted R-square is 0.589555 the show average relationship between NET NPA and NET ADVANCE. 37. Table No-4.4: Granger Causality Tests. Null HypothesisF-Statistic ProbabilityDecisionNET NPA does not Granger Cause NET ADVANCE44.7597.0058RejectedNET ADVANCE does not Granger Cause NET NPA1.766690.3112AcceptedAnalysis: Here in Net ADVANCE to Net NPA the probability is 0.3112 means Accepted and NET NPA to NET ADVANCE is 0.0058 the null hypostasis rejected and NET NPA does not cause NET ADVANCE and in second test NET ADVANCE cause the NET NPA. Table No-4.5: Johansen Cointegration Test. Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values 38. Ratio analysis of ratio between NET ADVANCES and GROSS NPA Ratio of last 10 year say of net advances and net NPA is average in 200203 to 2011-12 compare to Gross Advances to Gross Npa and approximately between height in 2002-03 is 3.03 than after slowly decreases and low in year 2007-08 is 099.if we taken average of all the ratio is between 1.1612 is good than individual year ratio. 39. == Chapter 5. Finding == From the analysis the impact of non-performing assets on profitability and liquidity of public sector banks its shows the positive relation. Evaluate the impact of non-performing assets on profitability and liquidity with other variables Like priority sector, non priority sector, and other variable. Show high correlation between NPA and priority sector, non-priority sector and medium correlation between NPA and other variable. Examine the impact of non-performing assets on efficiency and liquidity show average correlation. The ratio of NPA and advances of public sector banks are high. 40. == Chapter 6. Conclusion == The NPAs of public sector banks in absolute terms has shown increasing trend till 2003-04 to 2011-12 and declined later on in 2004-05 to 2007-08. where as its test applied in the NET NAP and NET ADVANCE also prove thats the significant impact of NPA on profitability in public sector. Result of other variable of priority sector, non-priority sector and remaining public sector its result of impact on profit also more and other result for liquidity show there is not much more but only average impact on liquidity. Indian banking sector is facing a serious problem of NPA. The extent of NPA is comparatively higher in public sectors banks than the private sector. Test result of NPA show positive correlation between NET NPA and NET PROFIT its show Correlation is 0.912 Analysis Granger Causality test says if Net Profit Decreases its means the affected by NPA. 41. == Chapter 6. Conclusion == The Correlation result show the positive correlation between PRIORITY and NET PROFIT Average relation between NON PRIORITY and NET PROFIT and no correlation between PUBLIC SECTOR And NET PROFIT show the One of the objective to know the impact of npa on profitability with other variable its clear in result the Correlation is respectively like 0.94424, 0.6574 and -0.09704 is more than 0.800 the indicate high. Correlation result show the positive correlation between GROSS NPA and GROSS ADVANCE its show the one of the objective to know the liquidity impact of NPA in public sector Banks, its clear in result the Correlation is 0.67952 if more than 0.800 the indicate high correlation between them, Correlation result show the positive correlation between NET NPA and NET ADVANCE its show the one of the objective to know the impact of npa on liquidity its clear in result the Correlation is 0.7969 is more than 0.800 the indicate high correlation between them. 42. == Chapter 7. 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K.K, Prof. (Dr). P. Sudarsanan Pillai, A Study on the Performance of NonPerforming Assets (NPAs) of Indian Banking During Post Millennium Period International Journal of Business and Management Tomorrow Vol. 2 No. 3 45. == Thank you ==