panel discussion: regional economic and transit ridership trends · 2016-11-14 · the finance...
TRANSCRIPT
Finance Committee
Information Item III-B
September 8, 2016
Panel Discussion: Regional Economic and
Transit Ridership Trends
Page 32 of 37
Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority
Board Action/Information Summary
TITLE:
Regional Economic and Transit Ridership Trends
PRESENTATION SUMMARY:
In preparation for upcoming discussions on the FY2018 budget, the Committee will be briefed by three experts on the economic outlook for the Washington region and on ridership trends atWMATA and other peer transit agencies.
PURPOSE:
In preparation for upcoming discussions on the FY2018 budget, the Committee will be briefed by three experts on the economic outlook for the Washington region and on ridership trends at WMATA and other peer transit agencies.The participants include Dr. Stephen Fuller of theCenter for Regional Analysis at George Mason University (GMU); Mr. Art Guzzetti, Vice President for Policy at the American Public Transportation Association (APTA); and Mr. Shyam Kannan, Managing Director of Planning for WMATA.
DESCRIPTION:
Key Highlights:
The Finance Committee will host a panel discussion with three experts -- Dr. Stephen Fuller of GMU, Mr. Art Guzzetti of APTA, and Mr. Shyam Kannan of WMATA -- on the economic outlook for the Washington region and recent ridership trends at WMATA and other peer transit agencies, which will then be followed by a question-and-answer session with the Committee members.
Background and History:
After growing steadily for almost two decades and peaking in 2009, Metrorail ridership has been declining. This decline is due to both external factors (such as telecommuting, changing travel patterns, and increased competition from other modes) and internal factors, particularly customer concerns over rail reliability and quality of service. In preparation for discussions on the FY2018 budget, this panel discussion will explore short- and long-term expectations for WMATA ridership given these and other factors, including the economic outlook for the Washington region and the recent experiences at other peer transit agencies.
Discussion:
Action Information MEAD Number:201780
Resolution:Yes No
Page 33 of 37
Biographies for the three panel participants are provided below:
Stephen FullerProfessor Fuller joined the faculty at George Mason University in 1994 as Professor of Public Policy and Regional Development. In September 2001, the GMU Board of Visitors appointed him University Professor and in July 2002 he was named to the Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and Director of the Center for Regional Analysis for whichhe served in this capacity until May 2015. He currently holds the position of Senior Advisor and Director of Special Projects with the Center for Regional Analysis at GMU. He has authored more than 800 articles, papers, and reports in the field of urban and regional economic development including monthly reports on the Washington metropolitan area and Fairfax County economies.
Professor Fuller’s recent research has focused on the structure of the Washington metropolitan area economy, how the economy changed during the Great Recession, and how it will change going forward as its federal-spending dependency diminishes. He has also undertaken research on the changing workforce requirements of the Washington area’s emerging economy and the housing requirement of this future workforce. His current research involves the projected demographic changes over the next 15 years and how these will impact the Washington area’s workforce, housing market, and demand for public services. Professor Fuller was appointed in June of 2014 to serve on the Joint Advisory Board of Economists by Governor McAuliffe. He served on the Governor’s Advisory Board of Economists under Governors Kaine, Warner, Allen and Wilder.
Art GuzzettiArt Guzzetti, a 37-year professional in public transportation at the local, state and national levels, serves as Vice President-Policy for the American Public TransportationAssociation (APTA), the trade group for the public transportation industry. Mr. Guzzetti is responsible for APTA’s extensive policy development and research agenda, and for advancing policies favorable to public transportation with Congress, the Administration, state and local governments, with grass-roots and stakeholder organizations, and with public policy think tanks.
Prior to coming to Washington in June 1997, Mr. Guzzetti had 16 years of management experience with two of the nation’s leading public transportation systems: New Jersey Transit and the Port Authority of Allegheny County. Prior to that he had two years of experience with the New Jersey Department of Transportation. His duties have generally focused on transportation policy, government affairs, advocacy at all levels of government, capital programming, and grants development / management. Mr. Guzzetti has a Political Science degree from Edinboro State University, and a Master of PublicAdministration Degree from the University of Pittsburgh. Among other positions, he is the immediate past national president of the Transportation Research Forum.
Shyam KannanShyam Kannan is Metro's Managing Director of Planning. Mr. Kannan brings extensive planning and transit-oriented development experience in the public and private sectors to Metro, where he directs the Authority’s strategic planning efforts as well assupervises long-range planning, sustainability, WMATA's "big data" analytics, and smart growth efforts. He has a particular interest in the economic benefits of transit as well as coordinating closely with the business community in the region.
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Active in the region’s planning community, Mr. Kannan is a committee member of the Urban Land Institute, the Region Forward Coalition of the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, and is an adjunct Faculty Member of Georgetown University. Mr. Kannan has a Master’s Degree in Public Policy and Urban Planning from Harvard University, and is also a graduate of the University of Virginia.
FUNDING IMPACT:
TIMELINE:
RECOMMENDATION:
No action required - information item only.
Information item only - no funding impact.Project Manager: Thomas J. Webster
ProjectDepartment/Office: CFO/OMBS
Previous Actions July 2016 - Benchmarking Highlights
Anticipated actions after presentation
October 2016 - FY2018 Budget Prep SessionNovember 2016 - Presentation of GM/CEO FY2018 ProposedOperating BudgetDecember 2016 - Presentation of GM/CEO FY2018 ProposedCapital Budget and Six-Year Capital Improvement Program(CIP)
Page 35 of 37
METRO Finance Committee
September 8, 2016
Economic and Demographic Trends
in the Washington Region Impacting
Public Transit Ridership
Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D.
Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor
Senior Advisor and Director of Special Projects
Center for Regional Analysis
George Mason University
• Levels and Quality of Service: peak and off-peak, weekday
and weekend;
• Changing Economic Structure: number, types and distribution
of jobs and earnings;
• Changing cultural values: live close to place of work—walking
and bicycling to job, declining auto ownership, changing
housing tenure patterns, on-line shopping, life-style patterns;
• Changing nature of work: self-employment, part-time, labor
force participation, older workers, changing work and business
spaces—office and retail; and,
• Demographic Trends: number, age and place of residence.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
%
Sources: IHS Economics and GMU Center for Regional Analysis
U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP
2002 – 2014(Annual % Change)
Washington
U.S.
15 Largest Metro Areas:
GRP Percent Change 2009-14
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and GMU Center for Regional Analysis
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Annual Job Change
Washington MSA, 2002-2016
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2002
20
05
2008
(000s)Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted) and GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Federal Government
Washington MSA
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2002
2005
2008
Fe
b
Ma
y
Aug
Nov
Fe
b
Ma
y
Aug
Nov
Fe
b
Ma
y
Aug
Nov
Fe
b
Ma
y
Aug
Nov
Fe
b
Ma
y
Aug
Nov
Fe
b
Ma
y
Aug
Nov
Fe
b
(000s)
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Mar-16 Total: 363.8
Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Federal Procurement in the
Washington Metro Area, 1980-2015$ Billions
TOTAL = $1,236.0 Billion
Sources: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov
79.976.3
69.1
71.3
Professional & Business Services
Washington MSA
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2002
2005
2008
Fe
b
Ma
y
Aug
Nov
Fe
b
Ma
y
Aug
Nov
Fe
b
Ma
y
Aug
Nov
Fe
b
Ma
y
Aug
Nov
Fe
b
Ma
y
Aug
Nov
Fe
b
Ma
y
Aug
Nov
Fe
b
(000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mar-16 Total: 731.8Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted) and GMU Center for Regional Analysis
WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private SectorThe Great Recession and Recovery
-5
-7
-10
-12
-10
-8
-49
-34
-23
0
-24
-100 -75 -50 -25 0
Transp. & Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
Educ & Health Svcs
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
(000s)
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted) and GMU Center for Regional Analysis
1
9
18
22
63
34
66
59
0 25 50 75 100
Total -180 Total 272
Aug 2008-Feb 2010 Feb 2010-Feb 2016
63.8 63.9 64.8
66.5 67.2
68.0
69.2
68.7
70.5
71.5 70.7
70.3
69.3
69.6
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Average Wage in the
Washington Metro Area, 2001-2014(000s of 2014 $s)
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and GMU Center for Regional Analysis
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
%
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January 2016
Economic Outlook (GRP), 2007-2020
Washington Area and Sub-State Areas(Annual % Change)
DC
SMMSANV
Employment Change in the WMSA
by Sub-State Area (000s)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
D.C. 12.8 5.9 14.7 14.1 9.7 10.6 8.9 8.2
Sub. MD 6.5 11.8 17.4 20.2 17.7 14.1 12.0 11.0
No. VA 8.8 0.9 27.3 25.5 23.6 15.9 13.7 12.6
REGION 28.1 18.6 59.4 59.8 51.0 40.6 34.6 31.8
Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000
Sources: BLS, IHS Economics and GMU Center for Regional Analysis (January 2016)
NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
CORE BELTWAY OUTER
Washington Metropolitan Area:
Job Change by Subregion
1980
-2015
2015
-2045
Sources: COG Round 9 and GMU Center for Regional Analysis
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
CORE BELTWAY OUTER
Washington Metropolitan Area:
Share of Jobs by Subregion
1980
2015
2045
Sources: COG Round 9 and GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Year Metro Area Urban Core* % of Total
2010 5,679.3 3,927.8 69.2
2015 6,114.7 4,189.7 68.5
Change 435.4 261.9 60.2
Percent 7.7 6.7
2025 6,783.6 4,355.1 64.2
Change 668.9 165.4 24.7
Percent 10.9 3.9
Sources: IHS Economics and Center for Regional Analysis
*DC, Cities of Alexandria, Falls Church, and Fairfax and Counties of Arlington, Fairfax, Montgomery, and Prince George’s
Population Trends in the Washington MSA
2010-2015 and 2015-2025(population in thousands)
Age 2010-2015 2015-2025
0-24 19.1 22.6
25-34 24.4 8.4
35-44 5.5 18.1
45-54 - 0.3 5.1
55-64 19.1 6.6
65+ 32.2 39.2
Total 100.0 100.0
Sources: IHS Economics and Center for Regional Analysis
Age Distribution of Population Change in
the Washington Metropolitan Areas(percent contribution to total change)
Age 2010-2015 2015-2025
0-34 34.5 31.0
34-54 5.2 23.2
55+ 51.3 45.8
Total 100.0 100.0
Sources: IHS Economics and Center for Regional Analysis
Age Distribution of Population Change in
the Washington Metropolitan Areas(percent contribution to total population change)
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
CORE BELTWAY OUTER
Washington Metropolitan Area:
Population Change by Subregion
1980
-2015
2015
-2045
Source: COG Round 9 and GMU Center for Regional Analysis
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
CORE BELTWAY OUTER
Washington Metropolitan Area:
Share of Population by Subregion
1980
2015
2045
Source: COG Round 9 and GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Thank You & Questions
cra.gmu.edu
MetroRail and Peer System Ridership
Presentation to
WMATA Finance CommitteeMike Goldman, ChairSeptember 8, 2016
Art Guzzetti
Vice President – Policy
American Public Transportation Association
Ridership Growth v Population Growth
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Perc
ent
Gro
wth
fro
m 1
99
5
Transit Ridership Has Grown Faster Than Population
US Population Transit Ridership
2015 Daily Unlinked Passenger Trips
• New York TA 9,144,700
• WMATA MetroRail 868,400
• Chicago 772,900
• Boston 569,200
• San Francisco 452,600
• Philadephia 343,800
• Atlanta 231,700
• Los Angeles 145,800
• Marc 33,600
Factors Potentially Affecting Ridership
• Significantly lower gas prices
• Sustained low gas prices
• Fares / Perceived cost of the transit trip v alternatives
• Levels of service
• Reliability of service
• Trip generators / O&D / TOD
Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority
Metrorail Ridership in Perspective
WMATA Finance Committee
Sept 8, 2016
Rail Ridership in Retrospect
2
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,0001
99
2
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
Ave
rage
We
ekd
ay R
ider
ship
, May
2010-2015Down 1% to 3% per year
2015-2016Down 9%
3
Another Trend Defying the NormJobs, Population Up – People Travelling Less?
4
Context for the “New Normal”Lots of Theories, Some or All May be True
5
Customers Expect and Deserve Fast, Frequent, and Reliable Service
6
Sample Commute
Change in Median Travel Time
Change in 95th Percentile Travel Time
Additional Minutes Riders Must Budget
Branch Ave to L'Enfant Plaza 4% 11% 3.4
Franconia-Springfield to Pentagon 3% 8% 2.5
Greenbelt to L'Enfant Plaza 2% 4% 1.5
Huntington to Pentagon 2% 6% 1.6
Largo Town Center to L'Enfant Plaza 5% 19% 6.6
New Carrollton to Farragut West 12% 22% 9.2
Vienna to Farragut West 7% 16% 6.0
Shady Grove to Farragut North 2% 7% 3.3
Silver Spring to Farragut North 2% 6% 2.0
Range of travel times
(unpredictability) up 5-20%
Customers must “budget” more time
to be on-time
6
Time from tap-in to tap-outMay-August 2015 vs. 2013, AM Peak
Metrorail Customers Face Increasingly Unpredictable Trips
77
150,000 new entries/day
$400,000 in new fareboxrevenue each
weekday
Market STILL Wants MetroDevelopment-Related Ridership
100M SF TOD Underway
>90% of Region’s
Commercial Development within ½ mile of Metrorail
Rail Ridership Growth PotentialContingent on Restoration of Service Quality
8
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025
Ave
rage
We
ekd
ay M
etro
rail
Rid
ers
hip
Metrorail Ridership, 1975-2030
Actual MWCOG Forecast
Flat
Growth
Flat
Growth Flat
Decline