pandemics: an insurance point of view - oecd · 2016-03-29 · first conference organised under the...
TRANSCRIPT
PA
ND
EM
ICS
: A
N IN
SU
RA
NC
E P
OIN
T O
F V
IEW
Fir
st C
on
fere
nce
Org
anis
ed u
nd
er t
he
Au
spic
es o
f th
e O
EC
D In
tern
atio
nal
Net
wo
rk f
or
the
Fin
anci
al M
anag
emen
t o
f L
arg
e-S
cale
Cat
astr
op
hes
Hyd
erab
ad –
Feb
ruar
y 26
-27,
200
7
AN
A G
AR
CÍA
BA
RO
NA
Tec
hn
ical
an
d R
ein
sura
nce
Dir
ecto
rate
Man
ager
Co
nso
rcio
de
Co
mp
ensa
ció
nd
e S
egu
ros
(Sp
ain
)
“A p
and
emic
is a
glo
bal
dis
ease
ou
tbre
ak”
“A f
lu p
and
emic
occ
urs
wh
en a
new
infl
uen
za v
iru
sem
erg
es f
or
wh
ich
peo
ple
hav
e lit
tle
or
no
imm
un
ity.
T
he
dis
ease
sp
read
s ea
sily
fro
m p
erso
n t
o p
erso
n,
cau
ses
seri
ou
s ill
nes
s an
d c
an s
wee
p a
rou
nd
th
e w
orl
d in
a v
ery
sho
rt t
ime”
So
urc
e: O
EC
D
Pan
dem
ics
occ
ur
at r
egu
lar
inte
rval
s: e
very
30-
50 y
ears
Sin
ce 1
700:
10-
13 p
and
emic
s in
th
e w
orl
dT
he
qu
esti
on
in n
ot
if it
will
occ
ur
bu
t w
hen
an
d h
ow
AO
N (
2005
)
Th
ree
pan
dem
ics
in t
he
20th
cen
tury
:
-Sp
anis
h f
lu (
1918
-191
9):
* 50
mill
ion
dea
ths
(4%
of
the
glo
bal
po
pu
lati
on
)
Infe
ctio
n r
ate:
30%
-A
sian
flu
(19
57-1
958)
:
* 2
-4
mill
ion
dea
ths
-H
on
g K
on
g f
lu (
1968
-196
9):
* 1
mill
ion
dea
ths
WH
O (
2005
)
Las
t p
and
emic
:
-S
AR
S (
Sev
ere
Acu
te R
esp
irat
ory
Syn
dro
me)
. 200
3
Peo
ple
infe
cted
: 8.
000
(fat
alit
y ra
te:
9.6%
)
Eco
no
mic
loss
es:
US
D 6
0 b
illio
n
Cu
rren
t W
HO
ph
ase
of
pan
dem
ic a
lert
–F
acto
rs f
or
incr
ease
d v
uln
erab
ility
:-
Mo
re u
rban
ized
po
pu
lati
on
-H
igh
po
pu
lati
on
den
siti
es-
Mo
der
n t
ran
spo
rtat
ion
(glo
bal
izat
ion
)
Mo
re lo
ng
-dis
tan
ce c
on
tact
s
Mo
re jo
urn
eys
Hig
her
vu
lner
abili
ty in
po
or
area
s
No
wad
ays
–F
acto
rs f
or
dec
reas
ed v
uln
erab
ility
:-
Co
ntr
ol a
nd
tes
t (a
bili
ty, t
oo
ls a
nd
co
ord
inat
ion
)
-In
form
atio
n a
nd
dat
a tr
ansm
issi
on
(d
ista
nce
, dis
sem
inat
ion
an
d s
pee
d)
-S
cien
tifi
c kn
owle
dg
e an
d r
esea
rch
-R
emed
ies
dis
trib
uti
on
Fo
rese
eab
le e
ffec
ts (
bas
ed o
n S
AR
S e
xper
ien
ce)
Pan
dem
ic S
cen
ario
(w
orl
dw
ide
imp
act)
•M
ild s
cen
ario
:
-1,
42 m
illio
n d
eath
s (0
.022
% m
ort
alit
y)
-E
con
om
ic lo
sses
: U
SD
330
bill
ion
(0.
8 %
of
PD
G)
•U
ltra
sce
nar
io:
-14
2,2
mill
ion
dea
ths
(2.2
1 %
mo
rtal
ity)
-E
con
om
ic lo
sses
: U
SD
4,4
tri
llio
n (
12.6
% o
f P
DG
)
Low
y In
stit
ute
(20
06),
CB
O (
2005
)
. Mo
der
ate
scen
ario
:-
14,2
mill
ion
dea
ths
(0.2
2 %
mo
rtal
ity)
. Sev
ere
scen
ario
: -
71,0
8 m
illio
n d
eath
s (1
.1 %
mo
rtal
ity)
Fac
tors
co
nd
itio
nin
g t
he
pan
dem
ic im
pac
ts
-S
ever
ity
(m
orb
idit
y an
d m
ort
alit
y)
-S
pre
ad (
and
sp
eed
)
-A
ge
ran
ge
mo
re v
uln
erab
le
-D
ura
tio
n (
all p
has
es)
-P
reve
nti
on
, cu
re a
nd
pro
tect
ion
mea
sure
s
Un
cert
ain
ty a
bo
ut
the
pan
dem
ic n
atu
re a
nd
beh
avio
ur
Un
cert
ain
ties
ab
ou
t se
veri
ty a
nd
nat
ure
of
the
imp
acts
Pan
dem
ic e
ffec
ts-
Illn
ess
-F
atal
itie
s
-Q
uar
anti
nes
-C
om
pu
lso
ry c
losu
re o
f in
stal
lati
on
s an
d f
acili
ties
-T
rave
ls a
nd
jou
rney
s re
stri
ctio
ns
-P
ub
lic a
nd
go
od
s tr
ansp
ort
res
tric
tio
ns
-L
arg
e sc
ale
emp
loye
e ab
sen
teei
sm
•E
mp
loye
es in
fect
ed
•F
amily
car
e
•F
ear
of
infe
ctio
n (
or
qu
aran
tin
e)
-D
eep
sh
ifts
in s
oci
al, e
con
om
ic a
nd
po
litic
al r
elat
ion
s
Lo
sses
in e
very
sec
tor
of
acti
vity
Infe
ctio
n r
ate:
25
-30
%
Jon
ath
an H
ewit
t (2
006)
Fat
alit
y ra
te:
0.1
–2.
5%
Pan
dem
ic e
ffec
ts
Th
ese
effe
cts
wo
uld
als
o a
ffec
t in
sura
nce
car
rier
s
-O
per
atio
nal
Ris
ks
-A
sset
Ris
ks
-In
sura
nce
Lia
bili
ty R
isks
Co
nti
ng
ency
pla
ns
Hig
h v
uln
erab
ility
Imp
act
on
insu
ran
ce a
nd
rei
nsu
ran
ce c
om
pan
ies
Pan
dem
ic im
pac
t o
n
-L
ife
-H
ealt
h-
Pro
per
ty…
In
sura
nce
po
rtfo
lio
Inve
stm
ents
Bal
ance
sh
eet
and
liq
uid
ity
con
cern
s
Leg
al r
isks
Un
cert
ain
ties
on
co
vera
ge
Jud
icia
l an
d r
egu
lato
ry c
ove
rag
e in
valid
atio
n
Insu
ran
ce li
abili
ty r
isks
Po
licie
s af
fect
ed:
-L
ife
insu
ran
ce.T
he
gre
ater
ris
k ex
po
sure
: d
epen
din
g o
n r
ang
e o
f ag
e af
fect
ed
-H
ealt
h in
sura
nce
Low
er in
cid
ence
:
-G
ener
al L
iab
ility
. Neg
ligen
ce a
nd
mea
sure
s ad
op
ted
by
pu
blic
po
licym
aker
s
-P
rod
uct
s L
iab
ility
. Cla
ims
agai
nst
pre
ven
tio
n e
qu
ipm
ent
man
ufa
ctu
rers
o
r va
ccin
e m
aker
s b
ecau
se in
effe
ctiv
e re
med
ies…
-D
&O
.Cla
ims
fro
m s
har
eho
lder
s ag
ain
st c
om
pan
ies
bec
ause
lack
of
or
def
icie
nci
es
in c
on
tin
gen
cy p
lan
s.
-P
rop
erty
.Mo
re in
cid
ence
in r
egu
lar
risk
s –f
ire,
th
eft-
du
e to
red
uce
d
risk
s m
anag
emen
t; c
ivil
un
rest
...
-C
arg
o.G
oo
ds
refu
sed
, tra
nsp
ort
inte
rru
pti
on
…
-W
ork
ers
com
pen
sati
on
.On
ly s
pec
ial s
ervi
ces:
med
ical
att
enti
on
, po
ult
ry f
arm
s,
edu
cati
on
…
-B
usi
nes
s In
terr
up
tio
n.U
nce
rtai
n t
rig
ger
Jon
ath
an H
ewit
t (2
006)
; E
nd
ura
nce
(20
06);
Mu
nic
h R
e A
mer
ica
(200
7)
Imp
act
of
a p
and
emic
on
U.S
. lif
e in
sura
nce
sec
tor
Sev
ere
scen
ario
90 m
illio
n p
eop
le a
ffec
ted
(30
% o
f U
S p
op
ula
tio
n)
1,9
mill
ion
wo
uld
die
Val
ue
of
dea
th c
laim
s:-
Gro
up
life
insu
ran
ce:
$ 5
8,8
bill
ion
-In
div
idu
al li
fe in
sur.
: $
96,
6 b
illio
n
TO
TA
L
$ 1
55,4
bill
ion
Insu
ran
ce In
form
atio
n In
stit
ute
(bas
ed o
n 1
918
infl
uen
za)
-P
olic
y re
serv
es o
f U
.S. l
ife
insu
ran
ce (
end
200
5):
$ 3,
3 tr
illio
n-
Cap
ital
an
d s
urp
lus:
$25
6 b
illio
n
Usu
ally
co
nfi
ned
to
a li
mit
ed
geo
gra
ph
ic a
rea,
bu
t p
ote
nti
alIm
pac
t o
n a
co
un
try
or
a re
gio
n (
sto
rms)
in a
sh
ort
tim
e fr
ame.
Nat
ura
l tri
gg
er
Lo
w f
req
uen
cy
Hig
h s
ever
ity
-P
rop
erty
insu
ran
ce lo
sses
-P
erso
nal
insu
ran
ce lo
sses
Nat
ura
l cat
astr
op
hes
Po
ten
tial
imp
act
on
an
en
tire
cou
ntr
yo
r re
gio
nin
a s
ho
rt
tim
e fr
ame.
Hu
man
tri
gg
er
-P
rop
erty
insu
ran
ce lo
sses
-P
erso
nal
insu
ran
ce lo
sses
Lo
w f
req
uen
cy
Hig
h s
ever
ity
Meg
a-te
rro
rism
Po
ten
tial
imp
act
on
a r
egio
n,
or
wo
rldw
ide,
in a
sh
ort
ti
me
fram
e.
Nat
ura
l tri
gg
erH
um
an t
rig
ger
(te
rro
r.)
-P
erso
nal
insu
ran
ce lo
sses
-P
rop
erty
insu
ran
ce lo
sses
Lo
w f
req
uen
cy
Hig
h s
ever
ity
Pan
dem
ic in
flu
enza
Un
cert
ain
ties
on
-
Nat
ure
an
d b
ehav
iou
r (m
orb
idit
y, m
ort
alit
y, a
ge
ran
ge)
-G
eog
rap
hic
al w
ides
pre
ad-
Off
icia
l dec
lara
tio
n (
wh
en)
-D
ura
tio
n (
ever
y p
has
e)
WA
RP
AN
DE
MIC
per
son
al lo
sses
(lif
e, h
ealt
h)
Pro
per
ty a
nd
cas
ual
tylo
sses
Wid
e g
eog
rap
hic
are
as a
ffec
ted
Gre
at im
pac
tG
reat
imp
act
Gre
at im
pac
tM
od
erat
e im
pac
t
Un
insu
rab
le r
isk
Un
insu
rab
le r
isk
Un
insu
rab
le r
isk
Lo
w o
r m
od
erat
eef
fect
In lo
t o
f lin
es
Th
ree
mai
n q
ues
tio
ns
Is p
and
emic
an
insu
rab
le r
isk?
Is t
he
pri
vate
mar
ket
will
ing
to
co
ver
pan
dem
ic r
isk?
Sh
ou
ld p
ub
lic a
uth
ori
ties
tak
e p
art
in t
he
insu
ran
ce s
olu
tio
ns?
?
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