pandemic flu planning influenza: seasonal and pandemic steven moore emergency planning officer east...

Pandemic Flu Planning

Influenza:Influenza:Seasonal and PandemicSeasonal and Pandemic

Steven Moore

Emergency Planning Officer

East of England Ambulance Service

This presentation is taken from a briefing by

Dr Marian McEvoy - CCDC HPA - October

2005


What is What?What is What?

• Seasonal Flu

• Pandemic Flu

• Bird Flu

• Yearly onset (normally winter)• Limited vaccine• Yearly deaths from virus

• Can be at anytime of the year• Currently there is no vaccine• Will be more virulent than Seasonal Flu

• Can be at anytime of the year• Currently there is no vaccine• Will be more virulent than Seasonal Flu


Pandemic PhasesPandemic Phases


Pandemic and Epidemic Pandemic and Epidemic (seasonal) Flu: Differences (seasonal) Flu: Differences

Pandemic Seasonal (Epidemic)

1/30 years – anytime of anytime of yearyear

Every year - winter

Estimated 25%+ of population affected – but could be at the same time as Seasonal Flu

10-15% affected


Pandemic and Epidemic Pandemic and Epidemic (seasonal) Flu: Differences (seasonal) Flu: Differences

Pandemic Seasonal

Much higher mortality, all groups may be at risk

Lower mortality, most recover, deaths in at risk groups, such as ill and elderly

May be no vaccine initially and anti-virals limited

Vaccine strains usually predictable


Pandemic v WarPandemic v War

• The Pandemic in 1918 killed more people that World War 1


Avian Flu (Bird Flu)Avian Flu (Bird Flu)

• A/H5N1 could mutate to enable human to human transmission

• Currently no strong evidence of above

• Vaccine development work underway (adverse reactions – a risk)

• Oseltamivir effective against H5N1 (???)

• Few cases in humans in Mainland Europe


What do we need to do locally: What do we need to do locally: Seasonal fluSeasonal flu

• Clear understanding of difference between this and pandemic flu (DoH’s Explaining Pandemic Flu Leaflet www.dh.gov.uk)

• Vaccination for agencies outside NHS – cannot be done by NHS GPs

• Continue flu campaign for >65s and risk groups


What do we need to do locally: What do we need to do locally: Pandemic fluPandemic flu

• Pandemic Flu Coordinating Committee

• Explore NHS OH resources for prophylaxis (firstly) and vaccination (at later stage) of frontline staff

• Ensuring other key agencies have clear OH vaccination plans in place

• Remember incubation period is 2-4 days


What do we need to do locally: What do we need to do locally: Pandemic fluPandemic flu

• Business continuity (all agencies)• Public order issues (working with Constabulary)• Channels of communication• Social initiatives

hygiene in public places

schools (planning to close or stay open)

public gatherings


Face MasksFace Masks• FFP3 masks for close contact treatment where

there will be bodily fluids…– Intubation– Naso examination– Dentistry

• Risk of over reliance on masks

• Only useful if introduced with other infection control processes such as hand washing


Face MasksFace Masks

• Who else has bought face masks…

– Banks– Three Vallies Water– EDF Energy

• Risk of staff confusion if private companies have masks and NHS / HPA are saying masks are not necessary for continual wearing


Mortality RateMortality Rate

• Pandemic Flu will bring additional deaths

• Although like all illnesses we can’t predict exactly how many people will die, we do know there will be an increase

• Approximately 0.37% of the Hertfordshire population will die, that is in the region of 1000 people (over and above normal seasonal flu deaths)


TrainingTraining

Don’t panic Mr Mainwaring !!

• October 2006 Exercise Willlson took place

• To look at issues at mass

vaccination centres

• Staff resilience

• Patient compliance


Resources availableResources availablewww.dh.gov.uk/pandemicflu


Bird Flu Bird Flu Reaches Reaches FranceFrance

The first death from The first death from Bird Flu is witnessed Bird Flu is witnessed at Disneyland Parisat Disneyland Paris

Mickey and Minnie are still in mourning their friend Donald’s fate!

Any Any Questions?Questions?

pandemic flu planning influenza: seasonal and pandemic steven moore emergency planning officer east...

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