panchangam_03_vandeep

Indian Journal of Science and Technology Vol. 5 No.4 (Apr 2012) ISSN: 0974- 6846

Research article “Panchangam vs real-time observation” Vanadeep et al. Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee) http://www.indjst.org Indian J.Sci.Technol.

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Meteorological predictions preserved in the Panchangam versus real-time observations – a case study over Tirupati region – a semi-arid tropical site in India

Vanadeep K1*, Sada Siva Murty R2 and Krishnaiah M1

1Department of Physics, Sri Venkateswara University, Tirupati 517502, Andhra Pradesh, India

2Rashtriya Sanskrita Vidya Peetha, Tirupati 517502, Andhra Pradesh, India [email protected]*, [email protected], [email protected]

Abstract

Panchangam is the traditional Hindu Almanac that has been in practice for 5,000 years. Invaluable meteorological predictions are enshrined in it. They are generalized over a region, based on astrological phenomena like planet-star conjunctions, transits, etc. Five components of Panchangam, namely Tithi, Vaaram, Nakshatram, Yogam and Karanam, along with other terms, have been explained. Astrological conditions favouring scanty and copious rainfall have been enlisted. General climatic summary of Panchangam months during the period of study (1992-2004) has been furnished. Panchangam year starts from Chaitram (April) and ends with Phaalgunam (March). Popular ‘Pidaparthi Panchangam’ was used for this study. To estimate rainfall quantity, an ancient unit ‘Aadhakam’ was employed, which is equivalent to 1.6 cm of rain gauge. Maximum rainfall on any day of the year, mean annual rainfall, average South-West and North-East monsoon rainfall, mean monsoonal rainfall, rainfall based on planetary reign, dominant cloud type and resultant rainfall nature, direction of cloud origin and wind velocity over Tirupati region, which is a semi-arid tropical site situated in the state of Andhra Pradesh in India, were compared with Panchangam predictions, using data provided by India Meteorological Department (IMD). Correlation of individual observations with Panchangam predictions, ranged from 9.7% to 94.4%. Overall, during study period, success rate of Panchangam predictions set against modern observations was about 57%. Keywords:Panchangam, Nakshatram, Conjunction, Planetary reign, Meteorological prediction. Introduction

From times immemorial, Indians have been employing phenomena like nature observation, study of omens and prognostics, examination of winds, analyzing the cloud patterns, planetary positions and conjunctions, nakshatram (star) influences and other aspects of astrology, for predicting and forecasting the weather. The most important deciding factor in meteorological studies is the estimation of the quantity of rainfall because especially in a country like India, nearly 70% of the population relies almost exclusively on agriculture and agricultural production in India solely depends upon the monsoon rainfall. Hence, accurate and astute predictions are inevitable for adequate preparations (Sandeep Acharya, 2011) for farming and these become even more indispensable to avert losses in agro forestry resources during times of adverse weather conditions and natural calamities in many regions of the earth (Galacgac & Balisacan, 2009).

Despite the extensive use of sophisticated advanced technology including satellites, weather prediction models, etc., their success rate is minimal and they often fail to place themselves in considerable proximity to the actual occurrence. Eventually, the methods enshrined in ancient texts are being followed till date in some places to guesstimate the mysterious trends of rainfall and on the whole, of the weather. Weather lore has thus remained an important form of local forecasting in many areas through centuries (Burghart, 2000).

Indigenous methods of weather forecasting in ancient scriptures can be broadly classified into two categories:

(i) Theoretical methods (ii) Observational methods. Theoretical methods employ astronomical or

planetary factors and pertain to computation of planetary positions and conjunction of planets and stars (Mishra et al., 2002). The observational methods deal with atmospheric changes, including cloud forms (sky features) and biological and phenological indicators (Mishra et al., 2002).

The term Vedam has its origin in the root word vid which means ‘to know’. Hence the Vedas are given the utmost reverence as ‘store houses and treasures of knowledge’, as popular English saying goes, "Knowing is everything". There are six Vedangams which are meant to support, enhance, augment, preserve and protect the Vedas andthe principles enshrined in them. As the word angam stands for ‘organ’ in Sanskrit, these Vedangams can be declared to be the six limbs of the Vedas. They are listed as follows: 1. Siksha (deals with the study of sounds and syllable

pronunciations) 2. Chandas (deals with innumerable meters associated

with Vedic and Sanskrit slokams) 3. Vyakaranam (deals with grammar as well as

structures of words and sentences) 4. Niruktam (elaborates on the meaning and

interpretation of intricate words and phrases) 5. Jyotisham (deals with the study of the transits,

conjunctions et cetera of celestial bodies like the Sun, the Moon, planets, comets and stars as well as their influences on the mankind and on the earth as a



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whole. Based on these predictions, auspicious times for the performance of various rituals are determined)

6. Kalpam (deals with various sacrifices, ceremonies and rituals (from birth to death), associated with day-to-day life) The classical Hindu astrological almanac known as

Panchangam, prepared for public use from Vedanga Jyotishyam period (1,400 BC – 1,300 BC) (Sivaprakasam & Kanakasabai, 2009) stands out as the best exemplification for ancient traditional texts that employ theoretical methods. The book published yearly gives information on daily basis and extensively used by the astrologers for making astrological calculations and the farmers to start the farming activity based on the prediction of rainfall (Bharadwaj Dinesh, 2004). More significantly, the generation of hydro-electric power in India is entirely at the mercy of monsoon rainfall.

Kanani and Pastakia Astad (1999) opined that there was a need to identify and test old literature and oral traditions across different climatic zones. Comparative studies were undertaken by correlating the Panchangam predictions with the actual rainfall recorded by IMD (Misra et al., 2002). Nakshatram (Star) also has considerable influence on the amount of rainfall (De et al., 2004).

Rain forecasting based on Panchangam or Hindu Almanac is a common practice among farmers (Ravi Shankar et al, 2008).However, it has been a prevalent notion that local forecasting combines empirical observations and spiritual insights that draw from a variety of religious traditions (Roncoli et al., 2001). Hence, the need of the hour is to integrate the traditional and scientific weather forecast systems to develop a comprehensively decisive mechanism for rainfall prediction in the coming years.

In the present study, the traditional weather predictions of the Panchangam for a period of 12 years, from 1992-2004 were compared and correlated with the actual recorded values over Tirupati region, a world-renowned pilgrimage centre in India. Materials and methods Significance of the number 12

The day is composed of 24 hours, usually divided into two halves of 12 hours each, i.e., forenoon and afternoon. The Sun’s transit through the twelve zodiac constellations constitute a solar year of 12 months (One constellation per month). The contemporary Gregorian calendar also has 12 months.

The number 12 has a great prominence in Indian heritage. A period of 12 years is called a “Pushkaram” in Sanskrit. Many great world-renowned festivities like Kumbha Mela of Allahabad, etc. are held once in every 12 years. Special Pushkaram celebrations for rivers like Ganga, Yamuna, Krishna, Kaveri, Godavari, Tungabhadra, et cetera are organized by the respective state governments of India with great pageantry and grandeur. Moreover, the first year of study 1992 marks the year of the pious Pushkaram celebrations of the

perennial Krishna river of Andhra Pradesh. The period of study was from 1992 to 2004, for a period of 12 years.

The Solar Cycle in the Sun has a duration of 11-12 years approximately wherein the Sun undergoes significant changes in temperature, sunspots, emission of solar flares and its magnetic field, where the north and the south poles of the Sun are reversed and interchanged (This is anticipated in mid-2012 as forecasted by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration; NASA) and others.

Right from the Vedic period, the Sun was attributed with twelve names and forms, one for every month. They are called Dwaadasa Aadityas [Dwaadasa means ‘Twelve’ in Sanskrit and the word ‘Aaditya’ stands for the ‘Sun’, who is believed to be the Son of Aditi, the Mother of Gods (Devatas)] which are listed in Table 1.

Jupiter takes one Earth Year to traverse through one Zodiac constellation (perceived from Earth’s time perspective) and by the time it traverses through all the 12 constellations and completes one sidereal revolution around the Sun, it exhausts 12 Earth Years. The (Earth) Year calculated on the basis of Jupiter’s revolution is called a “Jovian (Jupiter) or Barhaspatya year”. Hence, five revolutions of Jupiter around the Sun is the basis for constituting the 60- (Earth) year cycle which is in vogue in the traditional Panchangams.

Besides, in Hindu Mythology and numerology, Lord Vishnu, The Sustainer among the Hindu Trinity, is said to be the Presiding Deity of this number and hence, this is revered as one of the most pious and auspicious numbers in India.

Fig.1. Map of India showing the place of study, Tirupati (marked as a red point) situated in the State of Andhra

Pradesh (shaded in orange)



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It is also believed that exactly at 12:00 PM in the afternoon, when the Sun is at the Zenith from our perspective, Abhijit star is on the ascendancy which is called “Abhijit muhurtham”. When no other Muhurtam (Auspicious time) is to be identified during the day, this particular time is considered to be always auspicious for marriages and other such pious ceremonies and also believed to bring about victories, by Hindus. Place of study: Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh, India

Tirupati is the abode of the richest shrine in the world that of Lord Venkateswara, situated in Chittoor district of Andhra Pradesh at an average altitude of 182.9 meters above sea level at 13.39oN latitude and 79.250E longitude, as in Fig.1. This is a semi-arid region with prevalent continental type of climate. This temple city is an internationally renowned, spiritual, educational and a buzzing commercial centre surrounded by industrial and agricultural environs.

Broadly, in a year, Tirupati has three distinct seasons: Summer (March-May), Monsoon (July-September), and winter (November-January). February, June and October months are considered to be transition periods with relatively stable weather conditions with sunny days. Geographically, since Tirupati is in proximity to the coastal regions of Nellore and Chennai, this region receives prominent amounts of rainfall whenever there are cyclonic formations in the Bay of Bengal, off the coast of Chennai and coastal Nellore. Due to this, along with the South-West monsoon, the North-East monsoon (October-December) also brings copious rains to this region.

Table 1. The twelve Adityas and their ruling periods The 12 Adityas Ruling Month Lunar Month

1 Dhaata March – April Chaitram

2 Aryama April – May Vaisakham

3 Mitra May – June Jyeshtham

4 Varuna June – July Ashadham 5 Indra July – August Sravanam 6 Vivasvan Aug – Sept Bhadrapadam

7 Tvashtha Sept – Oct Aswayujam

8 Vishnu Oct – Nov Karthikam

9 Amshuman Nov – Dec Margasirsham

10 Bhaga Dec – Jan Pushyam

11 Pusha Jan – Feb Maagham

12 Parjana Feb – March Phalgunam

Panchangam, the Hindu almanac When we consider the etymology of the word

‘Panchangam’, the Sanskrit word means ‘the one which consists of five organs/limbs’ (Pancha means ‘five’ and anga stands for ‘organ or limb’). Panchangam deals with the five attributes of Hindu calendar. They are:

1. Tithi (Lunar Day) 2. Vaaram or Vaasaram (Solar Day)

3. Nakshatram (Star/Star Cluster in which moon is placed/aligned at that particular time) 4. Yogam (Auspiciousness) 5. Karanam (half a Tithi)

Tithi (Lunar Day) A tithi is an exact lunar day, which is approximately

one-thirtieth of the time it takes the moon to orbit the earth. Mathematically, each tithi represents a 12-degree longitudinal separation between the sun and the moon. A tithi may vary in length from day to day. There are 15 tithis in each fortnight. Their names are: Padyami/Prathama, Vidiya/Dvitiya, Tadiya/Tritiya, Chaviti/Chaturthi, Panchami, Shasthi, Saptami, Ashtami, Navami, Dasami, Ekadasi, Dvadasi, Trayodasi, Chaturdasi and Amavasya/Purnima. Purnima, full-moon day, is the fifteenth tithi of the bright fortnight, and Amavasya, new-moon day, is the fifteenth tithi of the dark fortnight. (In many Panchangams, the new moon is numbered as the thirtieth tithi).

Vaaram or Vaasaram (Solar Day) The traditional Hindu calendar also recognizes the

solar day,Vaaram or Vaasaram. The vaasaram begins with sunrise (at about 6:00 AM) and ends with sunrise the next day, based on the rotation of the earth on its axis. Each solar day is divided into 24 horas (hours). Horas are assigned to the planets in their descending sidereal period. There are seven days in the week, and each is most strongly influenced by a particular planet which is tabulated in Table 2. Nakshatram (Star)

In Hindu astrology, the term ‘nakshatram’ refers to 27 particular stars/star-clusters, as listed in Table 3, which lie along the ecliptic .The ecliptic is the apparent yearly path of the Sun as seen from the earth. ‘Na’ in Sanskrit stands for ‘negation (not)’ and ‘Kshatam’ means ‘destructible’. Hence Nakshatram means an ‘indestructible entity’. The root word ‘tra’ in Sanskrit stands for ‘protection’. On the consummate, Nakshatram therefore signifies ‘something that is itself indestructible and protects’ or, in other words, ‘that which safeguards everything from being destroyed or perished’. From these, we can effortlessly presume that, by providing this particular nomenclature of Nakshatram to a star, our ancestral think-tank was well

Table 2. Solar days with their English counterparts and ruling planets

Solar Day (Vaaram) English Counterpart

Ruling Planet (King)

Bhaanu ( Ravi) vaaram Sunday Sun

Indu (Soma) vaaram Monday Moon Mangala (Bhouma) vaaram Tuesday Mars

Budha (Soumya) vaaram Wednesday Mercury

Guru (Brihaspati) vaaram Thursday Jupiter

Sukra vaaram Friday Venus

Shani vaaram Saturday Saturn



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versed with the life-sustaining nature of a star (e.g., the Sun) from eons of time. This property of a star was realized by the western astronomers very recently.

When a planet comes into alignment with one of the stars from the view of an individual on the earth, the rays of the stars combine with those of the planet to influence

the earth. All of the planets, one after another, pass through the ecliptic and align with each of the 27 nakshatrams. The most important “nakshatram” (star/star cluster) is the one with which the moon is currently aligned, as the moon’s influence is said to be the most influential on daily life on Earth.

All the nakshatrams given in Hindu calendar are for the Moon. This means that the nakshatram currently in effect is the one that the Moon has “conjoined.” (Similarly, the current raasi, the Zodiac sign/Constellation, is the one that the moon has conjoined), (Satguru Sivaya Subramuniyaswami, 1997). The Hindu mythological legend has it that these 27 stars are the wives of the Moon, who is said to have exceptional affinity towards Rohini among them. Hence, the conjunction of Moon with Rohini star has been attributed a distinctive prominence in astrology and is believed to have momentous impact on weather phenomena.

Based on the effects and results produced by these 27 stars on the Earth and Mankind, the stars are classified into various categories by ancient seers:

1. Light: Ashwini, Pushya and Hasta 2. Soft: Mrigasira, Chitra, Anuradha and Revathi 3. Fixed: Rohini, Uttara Phalguni, Uttarashadha and

Uttara Proshtapada (Uttaraabhaadra) 4. Moveable: Punarvasu, Swati, Sravana, Dhanishtha

and Shatabhishak 5. Sharp: Ardra, Aslesha, Jyeshtha and Mula 6. Dreadful: Bharani, Makha, Purva Phalguni,

Purvashadha and Purva Proshtapada (Purvaabhaadra)

7. Mixed: Krittika and Visakha These Nakshatrams are also called ‘Lunar Mansions

or houses or stations’ with respect to the moon’s conjunction with them. In general, they are called by the name ‘Asterisms’.

(Further, it is to be noted that, to this group of 27 nakshatrams, one more nakshatram namely, Abhijit is sometimes added towards the end of Uttarashadha nakshatram. Abhijit is situated in the region of Vega star in the constellation of Lyra. Since this star is not encountered on the path of the Sun (Solar Ecliptic) as all the other 27 nakshatrams are, this can be ignored while considering the main nakshatrams in astrology and Panchangam. It is also believed that exactly at 12:00 PM in the afternoon, when the Sun is at the Zenith from our perspective, Abhijit star is on the ascendancy which is called “Abhijit muhurtham”. When no other Muhurtam (Auspicious time) is to be identified during the day, this particular time is considered to be always auspicious for marriages and other such pious ceremonies and also believed to bring about victories, by Hindus). Karanam

In Sanskrit, a ‘Karanam’ refers to ‘actions that could be executed at that précise point of time’. An overview of the karanams in the panchangam would prefigure the quality of time to perform a given activity at that instance

Table 3. Nakshatrams and their modern counterparts Nakshatram Name in

Ancient Astrology Star Name in Modern

Astronomy 1 Ashwini Beta Arietis 2 Bharani 41 Arietis

3 Krittika Alcyone-2-Pleiades

4 Rohini Aldebaran 5 Mrigasira Lambda Orionis

6 Ardra Betelguese 7

7 Punarvasu Pollux 11 8 Pushyami Delta Cancri 9 Aslesha Epsilon Hydrae 10 Makha Alpha Leonis 11 Purva Phalguni Delta Leonis 12 Uttara Phalguni Beta Leonis

13 Hasta Delta Corvi 14 Chitra Spica 16 15 Swati Arcturus 17 16 Visakha Alpha-2-Libra

17 Anuradha Delta Scorpionis

18 Jyeshtha Alpha Scorpionis 19 Mula Lambda Scorpionis 20 Purvashadha Delta Sagittari 21 Uttarashadha Sigma Sagittari 22 Sravana Alpha Aquibe 23 Dhanishtha Alpha Delphia 24 Shatabhishak Lambda Aqurii

25 Purva Proshtapada (Purvabhaadra) Alpha Pegasi

26 Uttara Proshtapada (Uttaraabhaadra) Gamma Pegasi

27 Revathi Zeta Piscium

Table 4. Seven Naadis and their associated effect on weather

Saptaa (Seven) Naadis Effect on weather

1 Chanda/Vaata Naadi Bright Sunshine with no rainfall;Windy

2 Vaayu/Athivaata Naadi

Sunshine and Cold Wind with normal rainfall

3 Vanhi/Agni/Dahana Naadi

Strong hot Winds (Westerlies) with increase in temperature

4 Soumya Naadi Normal Rainfall 5 Neera Naadi Very good rainfall 6 Jala Naadi Abundant Rainfall

7 Amrita Naadi Heavy to very heavy and copious rainfall, causing floods



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and the ensuing consequences accrued from them. A karanam is half of a tithi or lunar day. There are two karanams in a single tithi. The Karanam is calculated to be 6 degrees of longitudinal separation between the Sun and the Moon. Here, one may recall that a Tithi is calculated to be 12 degrees of longitudinal separation between the sun and the moon. The names of the 11 karanams that rotate through the 30 tithis of a lunar month are: Bhava, Balava, Kaulava, Taitila, Gara, Vanij, Visti, Sakuni, Chatuspada, Naga and Kimtughna. Yogam

In Sanskrit, Yogam means a ‘union’. So, it is a planetary configuration, union or relationship. The yogam is a factor used by astrologers for determining the auspiciousness of the day. This is an angle of the sun and the moon with the earth being the point of the angle. Yogam is the period during which the combined longitudinal motion of the Sun and the Moon amounts to 130 201 (13 degrees and 20 minutes). Hence, this truly represents the Luni-Solar aspect of the Panchangam. Like the nakshatrams, there are 27 yogas. They are: Vishakambha, Priti, Ayushman, Saubhagya, Sobhana, Atiganda, Sukarma, Dhriti, Sula, Ganda, Vriddhi, Dhruva, Vyaghat, Harshana, Vajra, Siddhi, Vyatipatha, Variyan, Parigha, Siva, Siddha, Sadhya, Subha, Sukla, Brahma, Indra and Vaidhriti.

From these, we can infer that Tithi, Yogam and Karanam are all a measure of the relationship between the Sun and the Moon. In Hindu Astrology, both the Sun and the Moon have been perceived to cast an immense influence on daily life and thus, their motions and conjunctions are precisely calculated. Raasi (Moon/Sun Sign)

Raasi in Sanskrit means a ‘grouping or conglomeration’. This is the reason why a constellation is called a raasi in astrology. It is the zodiac sign through which the moon currently passes through. This is denoted by the degree (angle) of the moon sign as perceived at 06:00 AM in the morning. It is a known fact that moon travels 12o per day. The 12 raasis are:

1. Mesha (Aries); 2. Vrshabha (Taurus) 3. Mithuna (Gemini) 4. Karkataka (Cancer) 5. Simha (Leo) 6. Kanya (Virgo) 7. Thula (Libra) 8. Vrischika (Scorpio) 9. Dhanush (Sagittarius) 10. Makara (Capricorn) 11. Kumbha (Aquarius) 12. Meena (Pisces)

The Sun takes about one month to traverse through each of the twelve zodiac signs mentioned above, which constitute the 12 months of a solar year. Likewise, there are 12 lunar months or maasams based on the nakshatram (star/star cluster) with which moon is

conjoined on the day of Purnima or Full moon day (as perceived by an observer on the earth). They are:

1. Chaitram (March-April) 2. Vaisaakham (April- May) 3. Jyeshtham (May-June) 4. Aashaadham(June-July) 5. Sraavanam (July- August) 6. Bhaadrapadam (August-September) 7. Aaswayujam (September-October) 8. Kaarthikam(October-November) 9. Maargaseersham (November-December) 10. Pousham (December-January) 11. Maagham (January-February) 12. Phaalgunam (February-March) The actual durations of the months mentioned above

may slightly vary depending upon the transit time of the lunar motion through the Nakshatrams (Stars).

The nomenclature ‘Monsoon’ has been derived from the Arabic word ‘Mausam’ which has its root in the Sanskrit term ‘Maasam’. Paksham (Fortnight)

The lunar month is the duration of one revolution of the moon around the earth. This period is divided into two pakshams (fortnights) as mentioned below. In Sanskrit, paksham means ‘partial’.

1. Bright Fortnight (Shukla Paksham): The period of waxing of moon till Full Moon (Purnima)

2. Dark Fortnight (Krishna Paksham): The period of waning of moon till New Moon (Amavasya)

Ayanam Each year is divided into two halves, each known as

Ayanam. It is the six month period-Uttarayanam and Dakshinayanam. Ayanam in Sanskrit stands for ‘path’. Uttarayanam begins on the day of the winter solstice, normally December 21, when the sun begins its apparent northward journey (Uttaram in Sanskrit means ‘North’). Dakshinayanam begins on the first day of the summer solstice, normally June 21, marking Sun’s southward movement (Dakshinam means ‘South’ in Sanskrit). The two days commencing the two ayanams are considered extremely auspicious by Hindus. Samvatsaram (Year)

According to the traditional Hindu Almanac (Panchangam), there are 60 years in all. This is based on the time Jupiter takes to complete 5 revolutions around the Sun. Jupiter travels through the 12 Zodiac constellations (Raasis) to complete one sidereal revolution around the Sun. The duration of this one sidereal revolution (one year) of Jupiter is equivalent to the time taken by the earth to complete 12 sidereal revolutions, i.e. One Jupiter Year = Twelve Earth Years Five Jupiter Years = Sixty Earth Years

It means that Jupiter takes one Earth Year to traverse through one Zodiac constellation (perceived from Earth’s time perspective) and by the time it traverses through all the 12 constellations and completes one sidereal



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revolution around the Sun, it would have exhausted 12 Earth Years. The (Earth) Year calculated on the basis of Jupiter’s revolution is called a “Jovian (Jupiter) or Barhaspatya year” and this system is known as “Barhaspatya varsha or Jovian (Jupiter) Year system”.

Hence, five revolutions of Jupiter around the Sun constitute the 60-year cycle which is in vogue in the traditional panchangams, the list of which is given as follows: Prabhava, Vibhava, Sukla, Pramoda, Prajapati, Angirasa, Srimukha, Bhava, Yuva, Dhatri, Isvara, Bahudhanya, Pramathi, Vikrama, Vrisha, Chitrabhanu, Subhanu, Tarana, Parthiva, Vyaya, Sarvajit, Sarvadharin, Virodhi Vikrita, Khara, Nandana, Vijaya, Jaya, Manmatha, Durmukha, Hemalamba, Vilamba, Vikarin, Sarvari, Plava, Subhakrit, Sobhana, Krodhin, Visvavasu, Parabhava, Palavanga, Kilaka, Sowmya, Sadharana, Virodhakrit, Paridhavi, Pramadin, Ananda, Rakshasa, Anala (or Nala), Pingala, Kalayukta, Siddharthi, Raudra, Durmati, Dundubhi, Rudhirodgari, Raktaksha, Krodhana and Akshaya (Equated to earth years in practice).

Hence, it is conventional in India to celebrate the occasion of the completion of 60 years of age/life by a man, by the name “Shasthyabda Poorthi” (meaning ‘Completion of 60 years’). Naadi

For predicting the monsoon and its subsequent effects on weather, almost all panchangams consider three different Naadi Siddhantams (Capsular theories). These are known as ‘Naadi Chakras’. The word ‘Chakram’ in Sanskrit signifies a cycle. They are: 1. Dwi (Two) Naadi Chakras 2. Tri (Three) Naadi Chakras 3. Sapta (Seven) Naadi Chakras

Of these three, Sapta Naadi chakras are the most significant and are said to have a pronounced influence on weather and especially rainfall. Table 4 lists all the seven Naadis and their respective effects on weather conditions. From the Panchangam, depending on the dominant Naadi Sanchaaram (Movement) of the nakshatrams (stars) and grahas (Planets), during the respective month, one can estimate the likely weather conditions during that particular month.

(Generally, ‘Naadi’ in Physiology means a ‘nerve center’ or ‘neural junction’. Even our Pulse is also considered to be a naadi. According to Spiritual Science and Metaphysics, there are about 72,000 such naadis in our human body. They are said to be the sustainers of Life Energy (Prana Sakti) in various forms. Most of the ancient forms of martial arts in ‘The Orient’ and elsewhere employ certain techniques that tactically target the nerve centers (naadis) of the opponent’s body. In Astrology, there is a system called ‘naadi jyotishyam’, wherein, even the minutest details of the past and future of a person’s life are revealed with great degree of accuracy, which can be seen in Vaideeswaran Koyil in Tamilnadu).

In India, several states use a solar-year calendar while others use the lunar-year calendar. Lunar calendar

is used for determining the dates of religious festivals and for selecting auspicious times for beginning many socio-religious activities. Vedic Calendar uses both the solar month and the lunar month and would be known as a “Luni-Solar Calendar”. For business purposes and modern convenience, we use the Gregorian year which follows neither a solar month system nor a lunar month system (Satguru Sivaya Subramuniyaswami, 1997). Rutu (Season)

Table 5.The six Rutus (Seasons) in India

Rutua (Season) Season Months

1 Vasanta Spring March to April 2 Greeshma Summer May to June

3 Varsha / Pravrut

Rainy Season July to September

4 Sarath Autumn September to November

5 Hemantha Winter November to January

6 Sisira Trees shed their leaves and Winter is at its peak

January to March

Traditionally, there are six seasons (Rutus) in India, each spanning over a period of about two months. The six seasons in India are listed in Table 5.The word ‘rutu’ is derived from the Vedic Sanskrit word ‘Rta’ which means ‘order’ or ‘course of things’. Hence, this designates a fixed or an appointed time, particularly the proper time for sacrificial rituals (Yagnyam). The panchangam used for the present study

In Andhra Pradesh also, we use Panchangams of dominant lunar dependence with a ‘luni-solar’ nature. ‘Ama-anta’ month system (Ama- Amavasya (New Moon Day); Anta- ‘end’) is followed in these Panchangams. Each month ends with Amavasya. Another aspect of the lunar calendar is that a lunar year contains about 336 days as it takes nearly 27-28 days for the Moon to trace its orbit around the earth (28 days per one lunar month x 12 months = 336 days per one lunar year). This is 30 days i.e., exactly one month shorter than the solar year which has 365.25 days. So, just as every 4th year in a solar calendar must add an extra day (leap year) to make up for the discrepancy in the earth’s orbit around the Sun, Similarly, for every 30 months or so, the lunar calendar must add an extra month to compensate for this deficit. This leap month is known as Adhika Maasam (The Additional Month) in Panchangam terminology. It has been a convention to insert this Adhika Maasam after the months of Aashadham, Sraavanam, Bhaadrapadam and Aaswayujam, as the case may be. For instance, if the month is to be added after Aaswayuja month in a particular year, then, the original Aaswayuja month will be given the nomenclature ‘Nija Aaswayujam’ and the additional month, Adhika Aaswayujam. Thus, every second or third lunar year contains 13 months which contributes considerably to the minimization of dissimilarities between the solar and the lunar years,



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thus, transforming the calendar into the one of a ‘Luni-Solar’ nature. The panchangam used for the present study was prepared by the famous Pidaparthi house, popularly known as “Pidaparthi Panchangam”. Erstwhile, this was released by the well-known daily of Andhra Pradesh ‘Andhra Patrika’ that came to be known as “Andhra Patrika Panchangam”. This was prepared as per the ‘Indian Ephemeris and Nautical Almanac’, the guidelines for which were laid down by the ‘Calendar Reform Committee’ constituted by Government of India. Moreover, this very Pidaparthi Panchangam has been recognized and accepted by Government of India as a

standard reference almanac. Panchangams for a year are usually prepared before

the commencement of the intended year, during the previous year itself. Hence, the main aim of this study is to compare and correlate the meteorological predictions of the traditional Panchangam with the actual recorded values over the Tirupatiregion, using the data provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

This Panchangam is modeled on the Telugu system of New Year which starts from the tithi Chaitra Shukla Padyami, which usually falls in the month of April and is known by the name Ugadi. This is believed to be the time when Lord Brahma, the Creator among The Hindu Trinity, started the conception of this Universe. This is a principal festivity in Andhra Pradesh. The year ends with the tithi

Phalguna Krishna Paksha (Bahula) Amavasya, which normally occurs during the month of March.

For every year, there will be a King, Minister, Senadhipathi (Commander-in-chief of forces/army), Sasyadhipathi (Lord of Agriculture, Crops and Greenery), Dhanyadhipathi (Lord of food grains), Arghadhipathi (Lord of Water), Meghadhipathi (Lord of Clouds and Rainfall), et cetera. Each of the above rulers for that particular year will be determined from the seven ruling planets Sun, Moon, Mars, Saturn, Jupiter, Venus and Mercury. King, Minister and Meghadhipathi of all the years of period of study are tabulated in Table 6.

Cloud categories in panchangam Panchangam also predicts the details of the

predominant cloud types likely to occur during the year. During the study period (1992-2004), Pushkaram, Samvartakam, Avartakam, Tamo, Vaayu, Varuna, Neelam, Kaalam and Dronam clouds were predicted to be prevalent. As per the ancient classification, the cloud types and the probable trend of rainfall they are expected to cause are given in Table 7. It is quite fascinating to note that the current classification of clouds into four categories, interpreted based on their altitude in atmosphere, namely Cirro, Alto, Strato and Cumuli,

perfectly suits the four major ancient cloud types envisioned in the Panchangam, namely, Pushkaram, Avartakam, Samvartakam and Dronam.

Table 6. King, minister and lord of clouds during the years in deliberation

Year Name in Panchangam

Christian Era

King Minister Meghadhipathi (Lord of Clouds)

1 Angirasa 1992-1993 Saturn Moon Sun 2 Srimukha 1993-1994 Mercury Mars Mars 3 Bhava 1994-1995 Moon Jupiter Mercury 4 Yuva 1995-1996 Saturn Venus Jupiter 5 Dhatru 1996-1997 Mercury Saturn Venus 6 Iswara 1997-1998 Mars Sun Sun 7 Bahudhanya 1998-1999 Saturn Mars Moon 8 Pramathi 1999-2000 Jupiter Mercury Mars 9 Vikrama 2000-2001 Mercury Jupiter Mercury 10 Vrisha 2001-2002 Moon Venus Venus 11 Chitrabhanu 2002-2003 Saturn Sun Saturn 12 Swa(Su)bhanu 2003-2004 Mercury Moon Sun

Table 7. Basic cloud types and rainfall trends based on ancient knowledge, Note: Dronam in Sanskrit means ‘a pot’. In Hindu mythology, Dronacharya (the mentor of Kauravas and Pandavas in the

Mahabharata) and Sage Agasthya are called Khumbha-Sambhavas or Drona Sambhavas as they are said to be born from pots(cloning-test tube babies)). The very name ‘Dronacharya’ itself tells the story. Dronam clouds resemble the shape of a pot

which coincides with the description of the modern Cumulonimbus clouds with the imposing anvil at their top and they are said to cause copious rains similar to the bountiful flow of water poured down from a pot

Cloud Type Resultant Rainfall Trend

1 Avartakam (May be Alto form Clouds like Altostratus and Altocumulus) Scattered Rainfall in certain places

2 Samvartakam (May be Strato form clouds like Stratus, Stratocumulus and Nimbostratus)

Moderate to good and uniform showers across various locations

3 Pushkaram (May be Cirro form clouds like Cirrus, Cirrostratus and Cirrocumulus or even Fair Weather Cumulus) Low amounts of Precipitation

4 Dronam (May be Cumuliform Clouds like Cumulus and Cumulonimbus) Abundant Rainfall is recorded all over the region

Table 8. Ruling planets (Kings) and their influence on the annual rainfall of that particular year

Ruling planet (King) Nature of rainfall 1 Ravi/Surya (Sun) Moderate 2 Kuja/Angaraka (Mars) Scanty 3 Budha (Mercury) Good (Windy Weather)

4 Guru/Brihaspati (Jupiter) Satisfactory

5 Shukra/Bhargava (Venus) Heavy

6 Shani/Manda (Saturn) Very Scanty (With Strong Winds)

7 Chandra/Soma (Moon) Very Heavy



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Our ancestors have also made an attempt to foretell the nature of rainfall based on the ruling planet (King) of that particular year which is tabulated in Table 8.

As per the Panchangam, when Sun is the King, it results in poor crop yield. Under the rule of Mars, there is extensive damage to crops. When Mercury happens to reign over the year, there will be plenty of harvest. Good harvest can be expected during the period of Jupiter’s kingship. There is every chance of variety of food grains being harvested during the rule of Venus. Saturn’s tenure on the throne accounts for a poor yield. Moon is the benefactor of crops with copious rains that consequently results in a very good harvest. This system of determining the nature of rainfall was believed to be first popularized by Sage Parasara in his famous treatise ‘Krishi Parasara’. Measurement of rainfall

The measurement of quantity of rainfall in the present Panchangam is given in terms of an ancient traditional unit Aadhakam. It was found that one Aadhakam equals in weight to 7 Lbs. or 11 OZ (Avoir dupois) (Tripathi, 1969). 1 Aadhakam equals to7 Lbs. or 11 OZ (Avoir dupois). Balkundi, a meteorologist, had found that one Aadhakam equals to 1.6 cm in modern measurements (when a standard rain gauge of area 200 cm2 is used) and four such Aadhakams equal in quantity to one

Dronam and found this conversion factor to be 6.4 cm (Balkundi, 1999). Hence, 1 Aadhakam= 1.6 cm

Therefore, 1 Dronam = 4 Aadhakams= 1.6 x 4 = 6.4 cm In the Panchangam, the dimensions of an Aadhakam

of rainfall have been provided and hold good over a standard area of up to 100 yojanams in height and 60 yojanams in width. One Yojanam equals to 8 Mile or 13 Km. approximately (Richard Thompson, 1997).

In the Present Panchangam, the range of rainfall has been given in Deva Maanam calculation (The mensuration standards of Gods. In Sanskrit, the word ‘Deva’ means ‘Gods’’ and the term ‘Maanam’ refers to ‘Measurement’) in yojanams as specified above, which is too huge and unviable to deal with practically. Hence, a localized term ‘Kuncham’ has been employed in the present Panchangam. One Kuncham is considered to be equal to 484 square yards. This is used extensively in coastal Andhra Pradesh in land transactions. One Kuncham = 484 Square yards Ten Kunchams = 4840 Square Yards = One Acre

However, in this Panchangam, Kuncham has been used as an equivalent measure to Aadhakam in volumetric mensuration. Here, it has been envisioned as a vessel with a capacity to accommodate the volume of rain water which measures the same as 1.6 cm or 16 mm

Table 9. Panchangam predictions of some weather phenomena during the study period.

Year Cloud Type Type of Rainfall Direction of Cloud Origin

Parts of Rainfall In Sea On Hills On Land

1992-93 Pushkaram Less Rain North-East 9 5 7

1993-94 Samvartakam Less Rain with excess of wind North 7 10 4

1994-95 Avartakam Less Rain North 7 10 4 1995-96 Tamo Scattered Rainfall West 9 5 7

1996-97 Vaayu Lack of Rain due to Windy Weather

North-West 7 10 4

1997-98 Varunam Heavy Rainfall South-West 10 7 4 1998-99 Neelam Heavy Rains South-East 9 5 7 1999-2000 Kaalam Low Rainfall South 8 9 4

2000-01 Dronam Incessant and Consistent Rainfall

East 7 10 4

2001-02 Pushkaram Less Rain North-East 7 10 4

2002-03 Samvartakam Weather remains Windy-Less Rain North 9 5 7

2003-04 Avartakam Less Rain North 7 10 4 Note: Meanings of Cloud Nomenclatures in Sanskrit:

a) Pushkaram: 1. A blue lotus 2. The edge of an elephant’s trunk 3. Sky 4. Water 5. The son of Varuna (The Rain-God) b) Samvartakam: 1. The name of the plough of Lord Balarama (Lord Krishna’s elder brother in the Hindu Mythology, who always holds

plough in his hands, which is his principle weapon) 2. A mythological mare c) Avartakam: 1. that which recurs itself again and again 2. A cyclonic or whirlpool-like formation 3. That which is bent, curved and

retracted d) Dronam: a pot e) Tamo: 1. Darkness 2. Laziness f) Vaayu: (that which generates and propels) Wind g) Varunam: (of or related to) Varuna, The Rain-God h) Neelam: 1. the color black 2. A hill 3. The name of a “Nidhi” (treasure) i) Kaalam: 1. Thick black in colour 2. Time 3. Lord Yama (The Death-God) Generally, ‘kaala’ clouds originate in the southern direction for

which Lord Yama is believed to be the ruler



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of rain water collected in a modern rain gauge of area 200 cm2.

According to Sage Parasara, an Aadhakamis the capacity of a circular vessel whose diameter is 20 Angulams and depth is8 Angulams. Generally, one Angulam is considered to be almost equal to 1 inch. During some instances, 1 Angulam has been treated to be 3/4th of an inch and even sometimes 1-3/8inch. Hence, here,

One Kuncham of rainfall = One Aadhakam of rainfall = 1.6 cm of rain water Four Kunchams of rainfall = Four Aadhakams of rainfall = One Dronam Rain = 6.4 cm of rain water

Dronam in Sanskrit means ‘a pot’. Here, it represents a pot or a similar vessel with a capacity to accommodate the volume of rain water which measures the same as 6.4 cm or 64 mm of rain water collected in a modern rain gauge of area 200 cm2.

Dominant cloud type, resultant nature of rainfall, direction of cloud origin and proportions of rainfall occurring in sea, on mountains and on the remaining land portion (the total rainfall was considered to be of 21 parts) for the corresponding year have been forecast in the Panchangam empirically. The following Table 9 presents the Panchangam predictions for the fore stated

parameters during the period of 12 years considered for the study.

Panchangam also enshrines certain astrological symptoms and conditions including planet-planet conjunctions, planet-star concurrences, planetary alignments, transit paths, etc., which are supposed to foist their impact on the trend of rainfall during that particular month and also year, as a whole. An attempt has been made here to enlist these astrological

conditions mentioned in the Panchangam from the Chaitra month (March-April) of 1992 (Angirasa Year) to the Phaalguna month (February-March) of 2004 (Swabhanu year). It is to be retained that all these conjunctions, transits, alignments, etc. are to be considered from the view of an observer on the Earth (as perceived from the Earth) and the term ‘Nakshatram’ shall be often referred to as ‘Star’ from here onwards.

Anaavrishti yogaha (astrological conditions favouring scanty rainfall)

1. Kuja-GuruSama Saptakam (Sama in Sansktit means ‘equal’ and Saptakam means ‘septet’. Mars and Jupiter are situated in 7th house from each other on a mutual 1-7 axis)

2. Movement of Mars in Uttaraabhaadra star 3. Saturn in curved orbit and Mars in linear orbit

Table 10.List of Kaarti Periods with Respective Rainfall Conditions

Kaartia Starts towards- Rainfall

1 Bharani Kaarti The end of the last week of April Chances of Good Rainfall

2 Kruttika Kaarti The end of the second week of May Low

3 Rohini Kaarti The end of the fourth week of May Normal; Monsoon sets in immediately after the completion of this Rohini Kaarti Period.

4 Mrigasira Kaarti The beginning of second week of June Low to Good

5 Ardra Kaarti The beginning of fourth week of June Good to Very Good

6 Punarvasu Kaarti The end of first week of July Almost No Rainfall

7 Pushyami Kaarti The end of the third week of July Normal

8 Aslesha Kaarti The middle of the first week of August Good

9 Makha Kaarti The middle of the third week of August Low Rainfall with dense clouds

10 Purvashadha (Pubba/Purva) Kaarti

The end of August and beginning of September Low Rainfall with dense clouds

11 Uttarashadha (Uttara) Kaarti The end of second week of September Normal

12 Hasta Kaarti The end of September Normal

13 Chitra Kaarti The middle of second week of October Good

14 Swati Kaarti The middle of the fourth week of October Good Rainfall accompanied by Wind

15 Visakha Kaarti The end of the first week of November Low Rainfall accompanied by Wind

16 Anuradha Kaarti The end of third week of November Good Rainfall accompanied by Wind

17 Jyeshtha Kaarti The middle of the first week of December Low to Normal Rainfall accompanied by Wind

18 Mula Kaarti The beginning of the third week of December Normal to Heavy Rainfall accompanied by Wind



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4. Mercury situated ahead of the Sun and Rahu (North Lunar Node), with Rahu in the middle

5. Ravi-ShaniSama Saptakam (Sun and Saturn are situated in 7th house from each other on a mutual 1-7 axis)

6. Mercury situated ahead of all planets (Windy Weather)

7. Jupiter situated ahead of Venus 8. Saturn in curved orbit and Venus in linear orbit

9. Movement of Mars in Rohini star 10. Venus situated ahead of Raahu and Sun with Raahu

(Northern Lunar Node as shown in Fig. 2) in the middle

11. Venus appears in the West, situated in the cluster of Makha nakshatram and its 4 counterparts. (Makha, Purva Phalguni, Uttara Phalguni, Hasta and Chitra)

12. Sun and Jupiter are situated in Simha raasi (Leo Constellation)

13. Jupiter situated ahead of Sun 14. Saturn situated ahead of Venus 15. Saturn is situated ahead followed by Venus, which is

followed by Jupiter and Sun respectively. 16. Movement of Mars in Ardra star 17. Venus situated ahead and followed by Mercury,

Jupiter and Sun taken in order. 18. Sun and Jupiter situated in Kanya raasi (Virgo

Constellation) 19. Venus ahead, followed by Mercury and Sun 20. Mars and Venus in Sama Saptakam (Refer to points

1 and 5 for the meaning of ‘Sama Saptakam’. This Sanskrit astrological term will be used in original without explaining its meaning again, from here onwards)

21. Venus ahead, followed by Saturn and Sun 22. Sun and Mars in Sama Saptakam mode 23. Mercury ahead of Saturn 24. Sun and Jupiter in Sama Saptakam mode 25. Jupiter and Venus in Sama Saptakam mode 26. Mercury ahead of Venus ( Windy) 27. Movement of Mars in Aslesha star

28. Mars in linear orbit and Saturn in curved orbit 29. Movement of Mars in Makha star 30. Mars in Leo Constellation 31. Mars ahead of all planets 32. Mercury appears in the East situated in Ardra star

and its 3 counterparts (The quartet comprising Ardra, Punarvasu, Pushya and Aslesha )

33. Movement of Mars in Uttara Phalguni star 34. Mars and Jupiter in Kanya raasi (Virgo constellation) 35. Jupiter is situated ahead of Sun and all other planets 36. Movement of Mars in Swati star 37. Mars and Jupiter in Leo constellation 38. Mars and Jupiter situated in the same constellation 39. Venus appears in the East situated in Swati star and

its 2 counterparts (The triad consisting of Swati, Visakha and Anuradha )

40. Movement of Mars in Jyeshtha star 41. Mars and Venus situated in the same constellation 42. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Mula star 43. Movement of Mars in Uttarashadha star 44. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Shatabhishak

star 45. Saturn ahead, followed by Mercury and Mars

respectively 46. Mercury-Jupiter-Saturn trio in curved orbits 47. Movement of Mars in Rohini star 48. Conjunction of Jupiter and Venus 49. Mercury-Venus-Saturn trio in curved orbits 50. Movement of Mars in Aslesha star 51. Mercury ahead, followed by Venus and Sun

respectively 52. Mars in curved orbit and Saturn in linear orbit 53. Movement of Venus in Makha star 54. Saturn ahead of Mars 55. Mars ahead of Saturn 56. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Rohini star in

the East 57. Conjunction of Sun, Mercury and Venus in Sun’s

orbital field (Excessive wind) 58. Good strong relation between Mars and Jupiter 59. Conjunction of Saturn and Mars 60. Conjunction of Mercury and Mars 61. Conjunction of Mars and Venus 62. Venus ahead of Mars 63. Mars ahead of Venus 64. Mercury and Venus in proximity with Mercury ahead

of Venus (Windy weather) 65. Movement of Mars 66. Jupiter situated ahead of Venus 67. The rise of Venus 68. Movement of Mars in Uttaraabhaadra star 69. Conjunction of Mercury and Saturn 70. Mercury ahead of Saturn 71. Mercury ahead of Mars 72. Saturn in curved orbit and Venus in linear orbit 73. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Jyeshtha star 74. Mercury rises in the East

Fig. 2. Raahu and Ketu shown as Northern and Southern Lunar nodes respectively



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75. Venus ahead of all the other planets 76. Mars in curved orbit and Venus in linear orbit 77. Rise of Saturn 78. Jupiter ahead of Mars 79. Movement of Mars in Revathi star 80. Movement of Mars in Uttara Phalguni star 81. Sun-Jupiter-Saturn in Sama Saptakam mode (These

three are located in 7th house from each other mutually)

82. Mars ahead of Venus 83. Saturn ahead of Mars and Venus 84. Relation between Mars, Jupiter and Venus 85. Relation of Sun, Mars and Jupiter in Mithuna raasi

(Gemini Constellation) 86. Relation of Sun, Mars and Jupiter in Karkataka raasi

(Cancer constellation) 87. Conjunction of Sun and Saturn 88. Venus sets in Aslesha star and its 5 counterparts

(i.e., Aslesha, Makha, Purva Phalguni, Uttara Phalguni, Hasta and Chitra)

89. Solar entry in Ardra star between sunrise and 12 noon is especially bad and points towards coming famine.

Suvrishti yogaha (astrological conditions favouring copious rainfall)

1. All planets trace their orbits at the back of the Sun 2. Mercury and Venus in proximity ahead of Sun with

Venus ahead of Mercury (Rainy) 3. Mercury in curved orbit and Venus in linear orbit 4. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus 5. Movement of Mars 6. Venus sets 7. Mars in Patanga Maargam (The Sun’s path; because

in Sanskrit, ‘Patanga’ stands for ‘Sun’ and ‘Maargam’ means ‘Path’)

8. Rise of Venus 9. Mercury rises and appears in the East, situated in

Pushyami star 10. Jupiter sets 11. Conjunction of Mercury and Jupiter 12. Venus appears in the West situated in Swati star and

its 2 counterparts (The triad consisting of Swati, Visakha and Anuradha )

13. Rise of Jupiter 14. Saturn sets 15. Venus in curved orbit and Mercury in linear orbit 16. Sun ahead, followed by Venus and Mercury

respectively 17. Movement of Mars in Chitra star 18. Venus appears in the East, situated in Makha star

and its 4 counterparts (Makha, Purva Phalguni, Uttara Phalguni, Hasta and Chitra)

19. Movement of Venus 20. Conjunction of Mercury and Jupiter 21. Movement of Saturn 22. Movement of Mars in Visakha star 23. Conjunction of Jupiter and Venus

24. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Swati star in the East with Mercury ahead of Venus (This particular conjuncture is known as ‘Jalaagama’, where Jalam means ‘water’ (rain)and aagama means ‘arrival’ in Sanskritand this presages well for a bountiful rainfall)

25. Ketu (Southern lunar node as shown in Fig. 2) in the middle of all the planets

26. Mercury appears in Ardra star and ‘Bha’-Chatushtaya Nakshatrams (4 stars beginning with the star ‘Bha’ranii.e.,Bharani, Krittika, Rohini and Mrigasira)

27. Movement of Mars in Mrigasira star 28. Venus ahead of Jupiter 29. Conjunction of three or four planets in the orbital field

of Venus 30. Mercury ahead of Venus (Though windy, sometimes

windy weather also favours rainfall as good rainfall is sometimes accompanied by wind)

31. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in the East, situated in Punarvasu star

32. All planets trace their orbital paths ahead of the Sun 33. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in the west,

situated in Hasta star 34. Relation between Venus and Mars situated in Leo

constellation 35. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Aswini star 36. Rise of Venus in Bharani star 37. Relation of Mars and Venus in Jyeshtha star 38. Venus sets in the West 39. Jupiter sets in the West situated in Shatabhishak

star 40. Mars sets in the West situated in Uttarashadha star 41. Jupiter rises in the East in Shatabhishak star 42. Saturn sets in the West in Revathi star 43. Mercury sets in Revathi star 44. Conjunction of Mars and Saturn 45. Movement of Mars in Bharani star 46. Mercury rises in Revathi star 47. Mars in Soumya maargam (The path of Mercury;

because in Sanskrit, ‘Maargam’ means ‘Path’ and the word ‘Soumya’ denotes ‘Mercury’ (Budha) as in Hindu mythology, he is believed to be the son of Moon, who is also known by the name ‘Soma’)

48. Saturn rises in the East 49. Mercury sets in the East 50. Mercury sets in the West after the Sun 51. Venus in Soumya maargam 52. Venus ahead, followed by Saturn and Mars

respectively 53. Sun ahead, followed by Venus and Mercury

respectively 54. Mercury rises in the East 55. Mercury rises in the West 56. Movement of Mars in Purva Phalguni star



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57. Venus appears in the West, situated in Swati star and its 2 counterparts (Swati, Visakha and Anuradha)

58. Venus ahead of Sun 59. Sun ahead of all the planets 60. Relation of Mercury and Venus in Aslesha star 61. Movement of Mars inPurvashadha 62. Movement of Mars in Purvaabhaadra 63. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Shatabhishak

star 64. Mercury in curved orbit and Mars in linear orbit 65. Venus in curved orbit and Mercury in linear orbit 66. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in

Uttaraabhaadra star 67. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Sravana star 68. Transit of Venus through stars situated in the

astrological celestial path of ‘Soumya maargam’ 69. Venus situated in Swati star which is on the

astrological celestial path of ‘Soumya maargam’ 70. Mercury rises in Aswini star 71. Mercury sets in Bharani star 72. Mercury rises in Bharani star 73. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Rohini star 74. Mercury sets in Mrigasira star 75. Mercury sets in Uttara Phalguni star 76. Mercury rises in Purva Phalguni star 77. Mercury rises in Anuradha star 78. Mercury sets in Purvashadha star 79. Mercury rises in Mula star 80. Mercury sets in Sravana star 81. Mercury rises in Revathi star 82. If the entry of Sun in Ardra star happens after sunset

and before the next Sun rise, it is good for rainfall and weather.

83. Sun entering Aardra star during late evening or night indicates widespread and plentiful rainfall leading to good crops and easy availability of food grains. (The word Aardra in Sanskrit means ‘wet or dampened one’. Hence this name aptly suits the fore stated phenomenon).

Very recently, on 3rd of January, 2012, the conjunction of Jupiter and Moon took place (observed from the Earth) after sunset. This was clearly visible to the naked eye in the East sky on the day. This was expected to bring about changes in Temperature. Note: Grouping of Stars – Group 1: ‘Bha’ Chatushtaya Nakshatrams - 4 stars beginning with the star ‘Bha’ranii.e.,Bharani, Krittika, Rohini and Mrigasira. Group 2: Ardraadi Chatushtaya Nakshatrams- Ardra, Punarvasu, Pushya and Aslesha Group 3: Maghaadi Panchaka Nakshatrams- Makha, Purva Phalguni, Uttara Phalguni, Hasta and Chitra Group 4: Swatee traya Nakshatrams- Swati, Visakha and Anuradha Group 5: Jyeshthaadi Panchaka Nakshatrams- Jyeshtha, Mula, Purvashadha, Uttarashadha and Sravana

Group6: Dhanishthaadi Shatka Nakshatrams- Dhanishtha, Shatabhishak, Purvabhaadrapada, Uttarabhaadrapada, Revathi and Aswini

When these astrologically predicted portents are amalgamated with contemporary technological prowess and dexterity, then, this would definitely provide a reliable pedestal with immense impetus by unveiling a revolutionary and ground-breaking innovation in the arena of rainfall prediction. Kaarti or Kartari

The moon stays conjoined with one nakshatram for about one day and thus his stay in all the 27 nakshatrams, one per each day, constitutes the entire lunar month. This particular star in which the moon stays for one day is called ‘Nitya (Daily) Nakshatram’ (meaning ‘The daily star’, denoting the star with which the moon is conjoined on that particular day of the lunar month). Likewise, the Sun also stays in one nakshatram for a period of about 13-14 days. The nakshatram with which the Sun is conjoined during a month is called a ‘Maha (Mega) Nakshatram’ (meaning ‘Mega Star’). This period of Solar-Star conjunction during a given lunar month is known as a ‘Kaarti’ in Telugu Panchangam (including the Panchangam considered for the present study).

Hence, a month may consist of 1 or 2 kaarti periods which are usually named after the Nakshatram (Star) the Sun is conjoined with, at that particular time. These Kaarti periods are said to be influential on weather phenomena, particularly rainfall. Depending upon the time of the year and the star of solar conjunction, different Kaarti periods have different results for rainfall in a given year and the same Kaarti period may witness different types of rainfall in different years depending upon the various astrological factors prevalent at that time. There are about 18 Kaarti periods in a given year. They are shown in Table 10.

These are however, much generalized predictions and the actual prediction for each Kaarti period in the Panchangam differs for each year. General Monthly Summary of Rainfall and Climate As

Envisaged In the Panchangam (a) Chaitram: Chances of some rainfall with normal to

moderate flash rains in some places. Weather will be windy occasionally. Overall, it will be cool and pleasant during this season.

(b) Vaisaakham: Symptoms conducive for good rainfall throughout the month. During the bright fortnight, there may be 1-2 normal to moderate flash rains accompanied by wind. Heat wave intensifies towards the end of this month around Amavasya time.

(c) Jyeshtham: More Rains are expected during the dark fortnight than during the bright fortnight. First monsoonal rains begin in this month. The Godavari and other rivers in the state flow with abundant waters.

(d) Aashaadham: Rainfall is expected to be scanty during the bright fortnight with normal rainfall in some places. Sky remains cloudy during the dark fortnight with 1-2 instances of good rainfall.



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(e) Sraavanam: Mostly, this month experiences symptoms of rainfall scarcity. There may be some rains during the bright fortnight. Rains are awaited during the dark fortnight.

(f) Bhaadrapadam: Sky remains cloudy with normal to moderate rainfall during this month.

(g) Aaswayujam: No considerable rainfall during this month till Purnima (Full Moon) time. At around Purnima, heavy rains occur due to the formation of depression in the sea. During Amavasya (New Moon) time, there will be rains accompanied by wind in some regions, disturbing agriculture.

(h) Kaarthikam: Dominant symptoms of good rainfall are perceived during this month. Rainfall ranging from meager dew precipitation to normal showers can be expected during the bright fortnight. Formation of depression (low pressure area) in the sea during Purnima and Amavasya periods, resulting in heavy rains.

(i) Maargaseersham: Scarce rainfall during the month. Sky remains cloudy and moist blow during this month. There are chances of 2-3 episodes of heavy rainfall and these rains are unfavourable for agriculture.

(j) Pousham: Probability of Scanty rainfall in this particular month. Moderate rainfall is likely to occur during the bright fortnight period. The dark fortnight period experiences windy, moist and snowy weather.

(k) Maagham: No considerable rainfall in this month. There are remote chances of 2-3 instances of rainfall, which is usually uncharacteristic of this season.

(l) Phaalgunam: Occasional rains in the manyam (a forest region in Northern Andhra Pradesh) region resulting in filling up of ponds, lakes and other water bodies situated there. Other than this, there will be clear, dry and pleasant spring-time weather conditions prevalent elsewhere, conducive for and leading to the advent of summer later.

Results and discussions Comparison with recorded data

To correlate the Panchangam prediction to the actual recorded values, the surface meteorological data provided by the National Data Centre, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune was used.

Comparison with maximum rainfall and annual rainfall We may recall here that the quantity of rainfall in

Panchangam is given in terms of Aadhakam units and also that the modern value of Aadhakam was established

to be 1.6 cm or 16 mm (approx.). The rainfall prediction in this Panchangam may be treated as the maximum amount of rainfall on any single given day of that particular year in deliberation, or even the more generic average rainfall during the year. All these have been incorporated in Table 11 and comparison of Panchangam prediction with recorded maximum rain on a given day of

Table 11. Panchangam Predictions compared with the Modern Data

Year Prediction(Aadhakam)

Prediction (mm)

Recorded Max. Rain on a given day (mm)

Degree of Agreement (%)

Yearly Mean(mm) Degree of Agreement (%)

1992-93 1 16 53 30.2 12.23 76.4 1993-94 3 48 108.4 44.3 14.73 30.7 1994-95 3 48 70.6 68 12.72 26.5 1995-96 1 16 150.8 10.6 15 93.8 1996-97 3 48 185.6 26 18.11 37.7 1997-98 2 32 103.1 31 13.57 42.4 1998-99 1 16 103.8 15.4 13.64 85.3

1999-2000 4 64 43.6 68.1 9.32 14.6

2000-01 3 48 65.9 72.8 8.14 17 2001-02 3 48 157.4 30.5 12.14 25.3 2002-03 1 16 101.8 15.7 11.85 74.1

Fig. 3. Wind directions on a 16-point compass, each separated by an angle of 22.50

Fig. 4.Comparison of Panchangam rainfall prediction with recorded maximum rainfall on a given day of the year



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the year and yearly mean are graphically represented in Fig. 3 and Fig.4 respectively. Note: Adequate meteorological daily surface data for Tirupati region is not available for the year 2003-2004 from the archives of IMD

Further, it has to be borne in mind that this Panchangam rainfall prediction is valid over the entire Andhra Pradesh region and is not confined to one particular place. It can

be applied to any or all of the regions of Andhra Pradesh or even by considering Andhra Pradesh state as a whole. Evaluation employing bi-monsoonal precipitation

An attempt has been made to examine the extent of agreement of the almanac predictions with the average

rainfall measured during the traditional Varsha Rutu (Rainy Season), which temporally corresponds to the modern South West monsoon period (June-September) and also with North East monsoon period (October-December). This is showcased in Table 12. The data has been compared with the Panchangam prediction as it is represented graphically in Fig. 5.

Tirupati receives heavy rainfall and often, majority of its rainfall during North East monsoon time accompanied by the formation of depressions in Bay of Bengal that result in incessant rains for days together. The farming season during the South West monsoons is known by the name ‘Khareef’ and during North East monsoons; this is called ‘Rabi’ in Southern India. Obviously, the highest rainfall during a year occurs during either of the two monsoons. But, there are some instances when isolated high rainfall episodes are witnessed during Summer (Mostly in May and seldom in April) due to the convective torrential rains (involving Cumulonimbus clouds). In addition, there are some scattered rains observed during the Maagha month (February), called “Maaghapaali” rains, which have been effectively predicted in the Panchangam. However, these inconsistent and discrete cases specified above, have been included in general overall rainfall analysis in Table 11 above and hence, not been given much emphasis in further analysis and calculations. Assessment of rainfall based on planetary reign in Panchangam

The Panchangam also predicts the nature of rainfall in a year based on its quantity depending upon the planetary reign of that particular year. Comparison of this astrological forecast with the total recorded rainfall for a given year is shown in Table 13. The years ruled by Saturn experienced comparatively scanty rainfall (1992-1993, 1995-1996, 1998-1999 and 2002-2003). The reign

Table 12. Panchangam predictions compared with Monsoonal Averages

Year Panchangam

Rainfall Prediction (mm)

Average South West Monsoonal

Rainfall (mm)

Degree of Agreement

(%)

Average North East Monsoonal Rainfall (mm) Degree of Agreement (%)

1992-93 16 8.6 53.8 15.1 94.4 1993-94 48 9.8 20.4 19.8 41.3 1994-95 48 11.0 23.0 15.3 32.0 1995-96 16 12.5 78.1 11.8 73.8 1996-97 48 15.1 31.5 23.0 47.9 1997-98 32 9.3 29.0 16.8 52.5 1998-99 16 9.2 57.5 21.7 73.7

1999-2000 64 6.2 9.7 14.4 22.5 2000-01 48 6.4 13.3 12.5 26.0 2001-02 48 7.8 16.3 18.6 38.8 2002-03 16 8.7 54.4 14.1 88.1

Fig. 5.Comparison of Panchangam rainfall prediction with recorded yearly mean rainfall

Fig. 6. Comparison of Panchangam rainfall prediction with recorded average south-west rainfall, average north-east

rainfall and average of total monsoon rainfall data.



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of Mercury yielded very good rainfall during 1993-1994 and 1996-1997. The Moon’s royal sway over the years 1994-1995 and 2001-2002 resulted in heavy rainfall during these two years. Jupiter’s tenure during 1999-2000 witnessed considerably low rainfall. All the above observations were in significant correlation to the predictions made in the Panchangam, positioning the degree of correlation at an astounding 81.8%.

But, the term of Mars in 1997-1998 was expected to bring low rainfall with extensive damage to agriculture. But, the actual rainfall (1275.8 mm) was prominently above the normal range during this year. Likewise, the Kingship of Mercury during 2000-2001 recorded a substantially low rainfall (760.9 mm.), that is quite

contradictory to the respective prediction. The extent of disagreement was only 18.2%. Appraisal with aggregate monsoonal showers

Further, the average of the total rainfall documented during the two monsoons (South West & North East) has also been correlated with the rainfall predicted by the Panchangam (Table 14).

From the above statistics, we can notice that the degree of agreement of the maximum rainfall on any given day of the year ranged from 10.6% to 72.8% (Table 11). The average extent of coincidence was 37.51%. Similarly, the annual mean rainfall was also compared to the Panchangam prediction and the range of agreement extended from 14.6% to 93.8%, the average of which was calculated to be 47.62% (Table 11).

In addition to this, the mean rainfall during the two monsoons was also associated with the Almanac predictions. The degree of association with mean South-West monsoonal rainfall was established as between 9.7% and 78.1% (Table 12). The average association was determined to be 35.2%. In case of North East monsoon, this association spanned from 22.5% to 94.4% (Table 12) and whose mean was computed to be 53.72%. When it comes to the case of considering the normal of the total monsoonal precipitation, the extent of correspondence to the traditional Panchangam estimates vary from 16.1% to 88.1% and the average of the extent of this relation stood at 45.8% (Table 14).

Evaluation based on predicted cloud type and nature of resultant rainfall

As per the modern meteorology, Cirrus (High Altitude) clouds are not expected to give any rainfall or sometimes yield low rainfall based on the moisture content in the atmosphere and the descent of the cirrus ice crystals on to middle and low altitude clouds, which aptly suits Pushkara clouds. During the period of study, this cloud was predicted to be dominant during the Panchangam year 1992-1993 and the total annual rainfall in Tirupati during this year was also low (758.6 mm) (see Table 15). Also, the total rainfall during the two monsoons in 1992-93 (661.0 mm) was the lowest during the period of study (see Table 14). The prediction and actual rainfall for 1999-2000 also were in great agreement with each other (727.2 mm) (Table 15).

Table 13. Comparison of the predicted effect of planetary rulership on annual rainfall, with recorded data Year King Predicted Nature of Rainfall Recorded Total Annual Rainfall (mm)

1992-93 Saturn Scanty (with strong winds) 758.6 1993-94 Mercury Very Good (Windy) 1413.8 1994-95 Moon Heavy 1170.1 1995-96 Saturn Scanty (strong winds) 899.0 1996-97 Mercury Very Good (Windy) 1901.4 1997-98 Mars Destructive with damage to crops 1275.8 1998-99 Saturn Scanty (strong winds ) 1132.9 1999-2000 Jupiter Low to Satisfactory 727.2 2000-01 Mercury Good (Windy) 760.9 2001-02 Moon Heavy 1226.4 2002-03 Saturn Scanty (strong winds) 912.2

Table 14.Total monsoonal average compared with Panchangam prediction

Year Total Monsoon Rainfall (mm)

Average of total Monsoon Rainfall (mm)

Predicted Rainfall in Panchangam (mm)

Degree of Agreement (%)

1992-93 661.0 11.4 16 71.3 1993-94 1283.7 14.6 48 30.4 1994-95 1012 13.0 48 27.1 1995-96 668.2 12.2 16 76.3 1996-97 1749 18.6 48 38.8 1997-98 1177.1 13.4 32 42.0 1998-99 1125.5 14.1 16 88.1 1999-2000 637.2 10.3 64 16.1 2000-01 710.9 9.0 48 18.8 2001-02 1086.2 13.0 48 27.1 2002-03 769.6 10.8 16 67.5



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Altocumulus clouds visible on a warm and humid summer morning portend rain or thunderstorm by late afternoon. Stratocumulus clouds generally appear as the remains of a much larger cumulus cloud. Normal Rain or Snow may fall from Stratocumulus. Cumulus clouds develop vertically into the atmosphere as opposed to

other cloud forms, into the form of Cumulus Congestus and occasionally into the most dreadful, impactful and power-packed variant, Cumulonimbus, the towering cloud clusters often extending into the lower stratosphere. The outcome would be a showery precipitation, usually a thunderstorm, accompanied by gale winds.

Table 15. Cloud type predictions compared with real-time cloud observations

Year Dominant Cloud type

Predicted Type of Rainfall

Predicted Dominant Cloud Type Observed Total Rainfall

(mm)

1992-93 Pushkaram Less Rain Cirrus in the form of hooks, progressively invading the Sky 758.6

1993-94 Samvartakam Uniform Rain-Very windy

Stratocumulus & Cumulus, other than that formed from spreading of Cumulus

1413.8

1994-95 Avartakam Less Rain Altocumulus in 2 or more layers; opaque at places 1170.1

1995-96 Tamo Scattered Rain Stratocumulus not formed by spreading Cumulus 899.0

1996-97 Vaayu Windy & Less Rain Semi-transparent Altocumulus 1901.4

1997-98 Varunam Heavy Rainfall Stratocumulus formed by spreading Cumulus 1275.8

1998-99 Neelam Heavy Rainfall Altocumulus, principally semi-transparent 1132.9

1999-2000 Kaalam Low Rainfall Dense Cirrus; like Cumuliform tufts 727.2

2000-01 Dronam Incessant rainfall Cumuliform clouds formed by their spreading

760.9

2001-02 Samvartakam Windy & Uniform Rainfall

Stratocumulus not formed by spreading out of Cumulus

1226.4

2002-03 Avartakam Less Rain Predominantly translucent Altocumulus

912.2

Table 16.Observed direction of cloud origin compared with Panchangam prediction

Year Direction of Cloud Generation Predicted in Panchangam

Actual Direction of Cloud Observed (using 8 points of

compass)

Dominant Wind Direction(s) during the Year (using 16 points of

compass) 1992-93 North – East No definite direction* SSW, SW, NE, NNE 1993-94 North North – East SSW,SW, NE, NNE 1994-95 North No definite direction SW, SSW, NE, NNE 1995-96 West South – West NE 1996-97 North – West No definite direction SW, NE 1997-98 South – West North – East NE, SW, SSW, W 1998-99 South – East No definite direction SSW, NE 1999-2000 South No definite direction SW, ENE, NE, W 2000-01 East No definite direction SW, SSW, NE, ENE, W 2001-02 North – East No definite direction SW, NE 2002-03 North South W, SW, SSW, NE, ENE *This means the cloud is at the center of the sky without orientation towards any direction or the particular cloud is spread over multiple directions or it is invading and pervading the entire sky. NE=North-East; SW=South-West; SSW=South-South-West; NNE=North–North-East; W=West; ENE=East–North-East. In Sanskrit, the East direction is called Purva, Prak or Prachi; West is called Paschimam or Prateechi; North is known as Uttaram; South is known by the name Dakshinam; North-East is called Ishanyam; South-West is termed Nairuti; North-West is called Vaayavyam and South-East has been given the nomenclature Aagneyam. The rulers of the eight directions are: a). East: Lord Indra (King of the Gods. Hence, East is considered to be the King or the most auspicious of all the directions as the Sun also rises in the East) b). West: Lord Varuna (The Rain-God. Clouds originating in the West consistently yield copious rainfall) c). North: Lord Kubera (Lord of Wealth. As per the science of Vaastu - the art of propitious construction, all the treasures like money valuables, cash boxes et cetera are to be placed at the North) d). South: Lord Yama (Lord of Death. The South wind is generally thought to be non-beneficial and is of ‘howling’ nature. Moreover,southern clouds normally result in miserly rainfall). e). North-East: Lord Ishaana (a form of Lord Rudra or Lord Siva, after whom this direction is named ‘Ishaanya’). f). South-West: Lord Niruti (a Raakshasa or a demon, after whom this direction is named ‘Nairuti’) g). North-West: Lord Vaayu (The Wind-God, after whom the direction is named ‘Vaayavyam’). h). South-East: Lord Agni (The Fire-God, after whom this direction is named ‘Aagneyam’). All of the above mentioned rulers of the eight directions are known as 'Ashta Dik Paalakas'. In Sanskrit, Ashta means 'Eight'; Dik means 'Direction' and Paalaka means 'Ruler'.



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Further, it can be easily concluded that the prediction of cloud type and rainfall in the Panchangam accords well with the actual cloud types observed, based on the nature of rainfall expected from them. However, there are discrepancies between the actual quantity of rainfall recorded and the prediction in some cases (Table 15).

Hence, among the 11 years considered, 7 years witnessed the coincidence of the recorded rainfall with the Panchangam predictions to some extent or the other, placing the scope of their association at a healthy rate of about 63.6%. Directions of cloud origin in almanac weighed with actual phenomenon

Panchangam clearly specifies the direction of origin of the cloud type that is dominant during a year. These predictions can be matched with the contemporary meteorological observations (Table16). Wind Direction to the Rescue: Here, it is quite noteworthy that even during the instances where the modern observations were unable to ascertain a specific direction of clouds; Panchangam was able to predict it well in advance. Since we have no direct source in the above data in Table 16 to verify these propositions, we need to do so circuitously by considering the direction of prevalent wind during the year. Air always travels from regions of high pressure to regions of low pressure. This pressure gradient facilitates the flow (blowing) of air which is called ‘Wind’. From the surface level to the tropospheric altitudes, the wind flow occurs horizontally. For instance, the wind originating from the north would travel towards the south and vice versa. (On the other hand, the winds occurring at the higher reaches of atmosphere are vertical winds). The gradient is a consequence of Sun’s heat resulting in temperature variations. Air at high temperature possesses high pressure owing to thermal agitation of air molecules. Therefore, air flow occurs till the equilibrium of temperature and pressure is achieved. Furthermore, winds converge in a low pressure zone, moving in an anti-clockwise direction. This is called a ‘cyclonic circulation’. On the other hand, in a high pressure zone, winds diverge out, moving in a clockwise direction. This is known as an ‘Anti-cyclonic circulation’. Hence, air begins to settle down in low pressure areas, where the air parcels or packets come under the influence of boundary layer and other local endemic factors, where they begin to rise in atmosphere thereby accumulating more and more water vapour. Consequently, they reach their saturation point and form clouds. From all these, one can arrive at a general conclusion that clouds are formed in areas of low pressure at a

region to which the wind blows, i.e., opposite to the wind direction (The direction from which the wind originates). 16-point compass format is used to measure wind speed which is shown in Fig. 6. Based on this modern scientific observation, we shall try to interpret the predictions of Panchangam pertaining to the direction of cloud origin.

It can be observed that the modern observations hardly coincide with the Panchangam predictions, with 7 out of 11 modern observations unable to assign any particular direction to the observed dominant cloud type (Table 16). During the years 1992-93, 1996-97, 1997-98, 2000-2001 and 2001-2002 the prediction for cloud direction was in good terms with the observed wind directions (mutually opposite directions). The years 1993-94, 1994-95, 1999-2000 and 2002-2003 showed some approximate resemblance (for instance, in 1994-95, when the predicted cloud direction was North, the observed prevalent wind direction was South-West and South – South-West, where the anticipated wind direction was from South). The years 1995-96 and 1998-1999 exhibited no correlation at all in this regard (Table 16). Hence, the overall percentage of perfect correlation was 45.5%. The rate of proximate association was calculated to be 36.4% and the extent of total non-correlation was only a trivial 18.1%. From these, it can be substantively asserted that the total magnitude of this degree of agreement (to some extent or the other) was placed at 81.9% with a mere disagreement of 18.1%.This sound relationship provides us with an adequate proof of the fact that our great ancestors were well aware of the mechanisms of wind circulation and cloud formation. Measured wind velocity linked to Panchangam predictions

In addition, the Panchangam repeatedly and categorically asserts that the reign of Mercury induces a windy weather during a given year though it witnesses good amount of rainfall. Saturn’s rule causes scanty rainfall with stormy winds. The Kingship of Mars probably ends up with destruction of crops due to gale winds, hail

storms and other pervasive elements. Going by the contemporary meteorology, wind velocities can be categorized as shown in Table 17, (http://www.windfinder.com/wind/windspeed.htm; accessed on 15th of January, 2012).

The range of maximum wind velocity during the period of study varied from 28 km/h to 72 km/h. So, from the classification provided above, we can easily infer that this range corresponds to moderate breezes, fresh breezes, strong breezes, high winds nearer to gale speed and finally, gale winds. Except during 1993-1994 (72 km/h) and

Table 17.Wind category based on wind velocity

Wind velocity range (kmph) Category

1 Calm 1 – 5 Light Air 6 – 11 Light Breeze 12 – 19 Gentle Breeze 20 – 28 Moderate Breeze 29 – 38 Fresh Breeze 39 – 49 Strong Breeze

50 – 61 High Wind, Near Gale

62 – 74 Gale Wind 75 – 88 Severe Gale 89 – 102 Stormy Wind 103 –117 Violent Storm 118 - 133 Hurricane



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1995-1996 (28 km/h), all the other years had their maximum wind speeds spanning from 34 km/h to 46 km/h (Table 18). These winds can be very convincingly tagged as extending from fresh breezes to strong breezes and when these are prevalent on a given day, it can be declared that the weather is ‘Windy’. By considering the annual average wind speed, it can be concluded that gentle breezes were dominant during the years under consideration (Table 18). Except during the four years 1993-94, 1995-96, 1999-2000 and 2001-2002, all the other seven years complied with the predictions of the Panchangam to a pronounced level. The height of concurrence was established at around 63.6%, while the degree of disagreement was placed at about 36.4%.

From all these comparative observations, it can be vividly stated that an Apposite blend of ancient knowledge and modern technical prowess would undoubtedly work wonders for the field of Science and in this context, would unquestionably augur marvels in the arena of weather forecasting and monsoon prediction, in particular. Conclusion

Though most of the Predictions in Panchangam are qualitative and usually generalized over a given area, say a state, an in-depth study and analysis of the propositions enshrined in the almanac, in conjunction with the modern sophisticated meteorological science will result in the evolution of a more accurate, reliable and accountable weather forecasting in the near future. Our ancient Indians did not have the luxury of sophisticated and automated weather mapping devices. Yet, they were able to develop astonishingly erudite and pertinent theories and principles often without even looking at the sky, which significantly coincided with the modern findings of late. The calendar system and time scales in the Panchangam are immaculate. A year with an Adhikamaasam occurs around 7 times in 19 years. Sometimes, due to the varying speeds of Earth’s rotation around the Sun, it so happens that a solar month may be

shorter than the lunar month. This calls for a deduction of a lunar month from the calendar. This eliminated month is known as ‘Ksheenamaasam or Kshayamaasam’.

Panchangam predictions maintained a vigorous rate of positive association with the authentic observations. This extended from 10.6% to 72.8% in case of maximum rainfall recorded on any given day of a particular year and from 14.6% to 93.8% pertaining to the total mean annual rainfall during the period of study. During the period of South-West monsoon, this relationship fluctuated between 9.7% and 78.1%. During North-East monsoon time, this vacillated from 22.5% to 94.4%. The observed total monsoonal mean rainfall corresponded to the Panchangam predictions to an extent stretching from 16.1% to 88.1%.The prediction of rainfall based on the planetary crown of a given year coincided with the actual total annual rainfall to an extent of 81.8%. When it comes to the issue of comparison of predicted dominant cloud type during a year and the resultant rainfall, with the recorded measurements, the scope of this association was found to be 63.6%. Further, the direction of cloud origin as foreseen in the Panchangam was discovered to be likened to the real-time observations at a rate of 81.9%. When the predicted nature of wind velocity was under deliberation, the height of concord with the on-site observations during the period of study was established to be 63.6%. Hence, to summarize at a bird’s eye view, the degree of association between predictions and recorded data was of the order ranging from a meager 9.7% to a staggering 94.4% in case of individual observations. On the whole, the general trend of Panchangam predictions versus actual observations emerged out to be 56.75% (57% (approx.)).

Table 18. Panchangam wind speed predictions matched with on-site measurements

Year Planetary

Reign

Panchangam Prediction with respect to Wind

Measured Maximum Wind Velocity on any

given day (kmph)

Measured Annual Average Wind Velocity

(kmph)

No. of Days with Wind Velocity >=28kmph

1992-93 Saturn Strong Winds 38 15 14 1993-94 Mercury Very Windy Weather 72 14.5 6

1994-95 Moon Usually calm with heavy rainfall 38 14 2

1995-96 Saturn Strong Winds 28 13.1 2 1996-97 Mercury Windy Weather 34 13.1 10 1997-98 Mars Destructive to Crops 46 15.5 44 1998-99 Saturn Strong Wind 34 14.2 10

1999-2000 Jupiter Low to Satisfactory Rainfall with light or no breezes

34 14.7 18

2000-01 Mercury Windy Weather 36 14.1 17

2001-02 Moon Heavy Rainfall with composed weather 34 13.9 16

2002-03 Saturn Strong Wind 38 15.2 29



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Besides, the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models like T80, T170, MM5 and Eta, run at the National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) failed to predict nearly one third of the cases of high rainfall spells at most of the locations situated north of 200 N or the Eastern peninsula or in the Bay of Bengal. It was also noted that no particular NWP model has performed satisfactorily in predicting high amount of rainfall in different parts of India at the same time (Khaladkar et al, 2007). On the consummate, during the study period, the mean success rate of Panchangam predictions set against the modern observations was put at 57 %( approx.). When viewed from this germane perspective, Panchangam can be conferred with the status of a full-fledged ‘Scientific Weather Prediction Model’. With rapid climatic changes and global warming, drastic vagaries of the weather phenomena have been a commonplace occurrence during the recent decades. This is the reason why many weather prediction models have recurrently failed to function as anticipated. This predicament applies to all the traditional scientific texts and treatises, including the Panchangam. With the climatic trends being rendered capricious day by day, the effectiveness and efficacy of all the traditional, indigenous as well as the present-day scientific methods is to be once again inspected and re-evaluated.

Given this existing milieu, there is an impending necessity to amalgamate this traditional knowledge gifted to us as an irreplaceable heritage by our forefathers, with the latest cutting-edge decorous technological innovations, in order to accomplish an apropos, comprehensive as well as a seemly and fittingly fulfilling meteorological monitoring and forecasting mechanism in the visible imminent future. Acknowledgement

Our heartfelt thankfulness to National Data Centre, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune for the supply of the requested data essential for carrying out this study. We express our profound gratefulness and appreciation to Ms. Haripriya Chinthapally, USA for her invaluable support and cooperation in statistical data programming and article formatting. References 1. Balkundi HV (1999) Commentary on ‘Krishi Parasara’,

translated by Sudhale N. Agri. History Bull., Publication No.2, Asian Agri History Foundation, Secunderabad.

2. Bharadwaj Dinesh M (2004) Panchangam – The Indian Almanac, About Astrology, www.explocity.com/ Channels/ Astrology/Panchangam.asp

3. Burghart (2000) In: http://www.suite101.com/ article.cfm/nature_sketches/33934.

4. De US, Joshi UR and Prakasa Rao GS (2004) Nakshatram based rainfall climatology. Mausam. 55(2), 305.

5. Galacgac ES and Balisacan CM (2009) Traditional weather forecasting for sustainable agroforestry

practices in Ilocos Norte Province, Philippines. Forest Ecol. Manage. 257, 2044-2053.

6. Kanani PR and Pastakia Astad (1999) Everything is written in the sky! : Participatory meteorological assessment and prediction based on traditional beliefs and indicators in Saurashtra. J. Asian Int. Bioethics. 9, 170.

7. Khaladkar RM, Narkhedkar SG & Mahajan PN (2007) Performance of NCMRWF models in predicting high rainfall spells during SW monsoon season– A study for some cases in July 2004, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, Research Report No. RR – 116.

8. Mishra SK, Dubey VK and Pandey RC (2002) Rain forecasting in Indian almanacs (Panchangs): A case for making Krishi-Panchang. Asian Agri-Hist. 6(1), 29-42.

9. Ravi Shankar K, Pochaiah Maraty, Murthy VRK and Ramakrishna YS (2008) Indigenous rain forecasting in Andhra Pradesh, Central Research Institute for Dry land Agriculture, Hyderabad. pp: 1-67.

10. Richard Thompson (1997), Planetary diameters in the Surya-Siddhanta. J. Scientific Exploration. 11(2), 193-200.

11. Roncoli C, Ingram K, Kirshen P and Jost C (2001) Burkina Faso A: Integrating indigenous and scientific rainfall forecasting. World Bank Indigenous Knowledge Series No. 39.

12. Sandeep Acharya (2011) Prediction of rainfall variation through flowering phenology of night-flowering jasmine (Nyctanthes arbor-tristis L.; Verbenaceae) in Tripura. Indian J. Traditional Knowledge.10 (1), 96-101.

13. Satguru Sivaya Subramuniyaswami (1997) Vedic Calendar – The Kadavul Hindu Panchangam, The Saivite Series, Himalayan Academy, Kapaa, Hawaii.

14. Sivaprakasam S and Kanakasabai V (2009) Traditional almanac predicted rainfall – A case study. IndianJ. Traditional Knowledge. 8 (4), 621-625.

15. Tripathi RPM (1969) Indigenous methods of rainfall prediction, M.Sc (Ag) Thesis, Department of Extension Education, BHU, Varanasi.

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