palm springs, california 7-10 september 2014southern california earthquake center 2014 scec annual...
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Southern California Earthquake Center
2014 SCEC Annual Meeting!
Palm Springs, California!7-10 September 2014!
Southern California Earthquake Center
Welcome Back to Palm Springs!!
Southern California Earthquake Center
AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD http://www.scec.org/meetings/2014am/SCEC2014Program.pdf
Southern California Earthquake Center
Goals of the Annual Meeting!
• Discuss SCEC collaborative research – Learn about new advances in earthquake science – Share research results and collaboration plans
• Assess progress on key SCEC4 objectives – Six fundamental problems of earthquake science – Special Fault Study Areas – Community Geodetic Model & Community Stress Model – Communication, Education & Outreach
• Gear up for the SCEC5 proposal – To be submitted to NSF & USGS by Oct 1, 2015
• Have some fun in the sun – or rain!
Southern California Earthquake Center SCEC Member Institutions (Sept 1, 2014)!
17
40
10
For those of you attending this meeting who don’t see your institution on this list, please note that it’s easy to apply.
We just need a letter from a cognizant official (e.g., your department chair or dean) that requests this status and appoints an institutional representative who will act as the point-of-contact with SCEC.
Southern California Earthquake Center
Core Institutions "& "Board of Directors!
Judi Chester (TAMU)"
Roland Burgmann (UCB)"
Southern California Earthquake Center
Figure 2. The SCEC4 organization chart, showing the disciplinary committees (green), focus groups (yellow), special projects (pink), CEO activities (orange), management offices (blue), and the external advisory council (white).
Southern California Earthquake Center
Southern California Earthquake Center "External Advisory Council!
Southern California Earthquake Center
SCEC4 Science Plan ""
Six Fundamental Problems in Earthquake Science!
1. Stress transfer from plate motion to crustal faults: long-term fault slip rates
2. Stress-mediated fault interactions and earthquake clustering: evaluation of mechanisms
3. Evolution of fault resistance during seismic slip: scale-appropriate laws for rupture modeling
4. Structure and evolution of fault zones and systems: relation to earthquake physics
5. Causes and effects of transient deformations: slow slip events and tectonic tremor
6. Seismic wave generation and scattering: prediction of strong ground motions
Southern California Earthquake Center
Science Working Groups & Planning Committee!
Deputy Director Greg Beroza
Southern California Earthquake Center
SCEC Staff!
Southern California Earthquake Center
SCEC Leadership Evolution!
• Search for a new SCEC director has not delivered a candidate in time to lead the SCEC5 proposal process – USC has agreed that an international search for a new director
will resume after a brief strategic pause
• I have recommended modifications to the SCEC leadership structure with two goals: – Strengthen the SCEC5 proposal process
– Facilitate the leadership transition process
• Structural modifications have been accepted by the SCEC Board of Directors – SCEC by-laws has been changed to recognize these
modifications
– The BoD is contemplating further changes
Southern California Earthquake Center
SCEC Leadership Evolution!
• Greg Beroza is appointed as the SCEC Co-Director – effective at this meeting
• Responsibilities of the Co-Director – Chair of the Planning Committee – Principal Investigator on some SCEC
special projects – Co-Principal Investigator on the SCEC5
proposal
• In addition, the Co-Director will work with the Director on – long-range planning and proposal
formulation – enforcing the SCEC dress code
Southern California Earthquake Center
SCEC Leadership Evolution!
• New leadership position, Vice-Chair of the Planning Committee (PC-VC)
• The PC-VC will work with the Co-Director to – facilitate the drafting of the annual science
plan and the SCEC5 proposal
– review submitted proposals and formulate the annual collaboration plan
– plan the annual meeting
– prepare the annual report to the funding agencies
• Judi Chester has been appointed as the first PC-VC!
Southern California Earthquake Center
SCEC Leadership Evolution!
• New SCEC position: Executive Science Director for Special Projects (ESD-SP) – Ph.D. with 5 or more years of research
experience.
• The ESD-SP will work with the Director and Co-Director to – formulate and manage the science plans of
SCEC special projects
– coordinate special projects with the core program
– develop new special projects
• Now taking nominations and applications!
Southern California Earthquake Center
SCEC Base Program!
$3.0M
$1.3M
$3.3M
Southern California Earthquake Center
All SCEC Programs!
Total SCEC funding
Southern California Earthquake Center
SCEC Special Projects!
• Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
• Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP)
• Community Modeling Environment (CME) – BroadBand platform
– CyberShake platform
– F3DT platform
– High-F platform
Southern California Earthquake Center
UCERF3 Model >200,000 different rupture types
(Field et al. 2013)
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (2013)""
Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)!
• Time-independent forecast (UCERF3-TI) incorporated into NSHMP
• Long-term forecast (UCERF3-TD has been finalized and submitted to BSSA
• Short-term component (UCERF3-ETAS) is still under development
Southern California Earthquake Center
Los Angeles
Zurich
Tokyo
Wellington
GNS Science Testing Center
Japan 217 models
ERI Testing Center
Italy 48 models
EU Testing Center
California 86 models
SCEC Testing Center
Testing Center
Upcoming
Testing Region
Upcoming
Global 13 models
Beijing
China Testing Center
North-South Seismic Belt
Oceanic Transform Faults 1 model
New Zealand 53 models
CSEP Testing Regions & Testing Centers
434 models under test in September, 2014
Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability!Infrastructure for automated, blind, prospective testing of forecasting models
in a variety of tectonic environments and on a global scale
Western Pacific 16 models
Southern California Earthquake Center
Southern California Earthquake Center
SCEC Computational Pathways!
Earthquake Rupture Forecast
Empirical GMPE
F3DT
Other Data Geology Geodesy
4!
AWP Ground Motions NSR
2!KFR AWP DFR
3!
PM ERM DM FM
Structural Representation
1!
3! Dynamic rupture model of fractal roughness on SAF
2! CyberShake 14.2 seismic hazard model for LA region
Los Angeles
SA-3s, 2% PoE in 50 years
4! Full-3D tomographic model CVM-S4.26 of S. California
depth = 6 km
Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
1!
UCERF3
TACC Stampede NCSA Blue Waters OLCF Titan ALCF Mira
Intensity Measures
Southern California Earthquake Center
CVM-S4.26"Full-3D tomography model of Southern California crustal structure!
• CVM-S4 starting model • 26th iterate of a full-3D tomographic (F3DT)
inversion procedure using ~ 550,000 differential waveform measurements at f ≤ 0.2 Hz
• 38,000 earthquake seismograms • 12,000 ambient-noise Green functions
Southern California Earthquake Center
1
2
2
3
4
CVM-S4.26 BBP-1D
Comparison of 1D and 3D CyberShake Models for the Los Angeles Region!
1. lower near-fault intensities due to 3D scattering 2. much higher intensities in near-fault basins 3. higher intensities in the Los Angeles basins 4. lower intensities in hard-rock areas
Southern California Earthquake Center
03/28/14 La Habra Earthquake (M5.1)!
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Z
R
T
CVM−S4 SDD
time(sec)0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Z
R
T
CVM−S4.26 SDD
time(sec)0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Z
R
T
CVM−H11.9 SDD
time(sec)
CS11: CVM-S4 CS14.2: CVM-S4.26 CS13.4: CVM-H11.9
Station SDD Observed in black Synthetic in red
Southern California Earthquake Center
03/28/14 La Habra Earthquake (M5.1)!
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Z
R
T
CVM−S4 EDW2
time(sec)0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Z
R
T
CVM−S4.26 EDW2
time(sec)0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Z
R
T
CVM−H11.9 EDW2
time(sec)
CS11: CVM-S4 CS14.2: CVM-S4.26 CS13.4: CVM-H11.9
Station EDW2 Observed in black Synthetic in red
Southern California Earthquake Center
03/28/14 La Habra Earthquake (M5.1)!
Southern California Earthquake Center
fault roughness near-fault plasticity frequency-dependent attenuation topography small-scale near-surface heterogeneity near-surface nonlinearity
High-F modeling
must validate
new physics
High-F Project!
1000 s
.001 Hz
100 s
.01 Hz
10 s
.1 Hz
1 s
1 Hz
0.1 s
10 Hz
period
frequency
low-order free oscillations mantle waves
crustal waves basin waves
strongly scattered waves
Seismic band
physics-based deterministic SCEC simulations
2014 empirical stochastic
physics-based deterministic
empirical stochastic
physics-based stochastic
SCEC simulations
2018
5 Hz
CyberShake 0.5 Hz
Earthquake engineering band tall buildings houses stiff structures
Southern California Earthquake Center
Earthquake engineering band tall buildings houses stiff structures
fault roughness near-fault plasticity frequency-dependent attenuation topography small-scale near-surface heterogeneity near-surface nonlinearity
High-F modeling
must validate
new physics
High-F Project!
1000 s
.001 Hz
100 s
.01 Hz
10 s
.1 Hz
1 s
1 Hz
0.1 s
10 Hz
period
frequency
low-order free oscillations mantle waves
crustal waves basin waves
strongly scattered waves
Seismic band
physics-based deterministic SCEC simulations
2014 empirical stochastic
physics-based deterministic
empirical stochastic
physics-based stochastic
SCEC simulations
2018
5 Hz
CyberShake 0.5 Hz
Southern California Earthquake Center
fault roughness near-fault plasticity frequency-dependent attenuation topography small-scale near-surface heterogeneity near-surface nonlinearity
High-F modeling
must validate
new physics
High-F Project!
1000 s
.001 Hz
100 s
.01 Hz
10 s
.1 Hz
1 s
1 Hz
0.1 s
10 Hz
period
frequency
low-order free oscillations mantle waves
crustal waves basin waves
strongly scattered waves
Seismic band
physics-based deterministic SCEC simulations
2014 empirical stochastic
physics-based deterministic
empirical stochastic
physics-based stochastic
SCEC simulations
2018
5 Hz
CyberShake 0.5 Hz
Earthquake engineering band tall buildings houses stiff structures
SORD dynamic rupture model UCVM stochastic heterogeneity x1
x2
x3
planar free surface ( x2 = 0 )
rough fault surface
−25 −20 −15 −10 −5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 5505101520
km
km
−20−10
0
1020
nucleation center at (x1, x2) = (0 km, 12 km)
Southern California Earthquake Center
Earthquake engineering band tall buildings houses stiff structures
fault roughness near-fault plasticity frequency-dependent attenuation topography small-scale near-surface heterogeneity near-surface nonlinearity
High-F modeling
must validate
new physics
High-F Project!
1000 s
.001 Hz
100 s
.01 Hz
10 s
.1 Hz
1 s
1 Hz
0.1 s
10 Hz
period
frequency
low-order free oscillations mantle waves
crustal waves basin waves
strongly scattered waves
Seismic band
physics-based deterministic SCEC simulations
2014 empirical stochastic
physics-based deterministic
empirical stochastic
physics-based stochastic
SCEC simulations
2018
5 Hz
CyberShake 0.5 Hz
Southern California Earthquake Center
0"
20"
40"
60"
80"
100"
120"
140"
160"
180"
200"
2002" 2003" 2004" 2005" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011" 2012" 2013" 2014"
Millions"of"A
lloca6o
n"Co
re:hou
rs"
CME"Alloca6on"Year"
Service'Units'on'NSF'TeraGrid/XSEDE'Resources'
CPU'Hours'on'NSF'Blue'Waters'
Service'Units'on'NSF'Yellowstone'
Service'Units'on'DOE'INCITE'Resources'
Service'Units'on'USC'Resources'
SCEC/CME’s use of HPC resources is growing rapidly!
Southern California Earthquake Center
TS1$
TS2$
SO'K$
SO'D$
M8$
RF$
$0.01$TF/s$
$0.10$TF/s$
1$TF/s$
10$TF/s$
100$TF/s$
1,000$TF/s$
10,000$TF/s$
100,000$TF/s$
1,000,000$TF/s$
10,000,000$TF/s$
2004$ 2005$ 2006$ 2007$ 2008$ 2009$ 2010$ 2011$ 2012$ 2013$ 2014$ 2015$ 2016$ 2017$ 2018$Year
SCEC needs extreme-scale computing!
!!!!!Sustained!SCEC!measured(performance(for(a(single(milestone(capability(simula4on(
Southern California Earthquake Center
SCEC Initiatives!
• Extreme-Scale Computing
– To be supported by NSF and DOE
• California Crustal Structure – To be supported by California utilities
• Earthquake Forecasting
– To be supported by W. M. Keck Foundation
Southern California Earthquake Center
• Goal: Collaborate with NSF and DOE leadership-class facilities to push the limits of extreme-scale computing by developing software for earthquake system science
– Develop codes that can achieve robustness, scalability, and computational efficiency on next-generation supercomputers
– Engage software and hardware developers in earthquake system science as a means for vertical integration of HPC cyberinfrastructure
• Software development plan focused on three computational pathways: – large suites (> 106) of extended-source kinematic simulations to populate
physics-based hazard models (CyberShake platform)
– moderate-sized suites (~ 104) of dynamic earthquake simulations to study the effects of material heterogeneities and nonlinearities on wave excitation and propagation (High-F platform)
– large suites (> 106) of compact-source kinematic simulations for full-3D tomographic inversions (F3DT platform)
SCEC Initiative in Extreme-Scale Computing!
Southern California Earthquake Center
• Goal: to improve PSHA by reducing the epistemic uncertainties in the modeling of 3D path effects
– Achieving this goal will require the gathering of new seismic data
• Initial study phase will be focused in central California
– Centered on the Diablo Canyon NPP
– Initiated in January, 2015 • Later phases could
potentially extend structural studies statewide
– Long-term (10-yr) sponsorship by California utilities
Central California Seismic Project!
Southern California Earthquake Center
SCEC USR J. Shaw & A. Plesch Limit of current
full-3D tomography in CVM-H
Central California Seismic Project!
Southern California Earthquake Center
AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD http://www.scec.org/meetings/2014am/SCEC2014Program.pdf
Southern California Earthquake Center
Agenda!
Southern California Earthquake Center
Agenda!
Southern California Earthquake Center
Agenda!
Southern California Earthquake Center
Agenda!
Southern California Earthquake Center
Agenda!
Southern California Earthquake Center
End!