palestinian population

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Arab Population

In Judea, Samaria & Gaza

The Million Person Gap

PCBS

2009 Population 4 Million

Bennett Zimmerman & Roberta Seid, Ph.D.Copyright 2009All Rights Reserved

Fewer Births

Net Negative Migration

Jerusalem Arab Population

Double-Count

Residents Living Abroad

Study Result

2009 Population 2.8 Million

Report prepared by:

The American-Israel

Demographic Research

Group

(AIDRG)

USA Research Team Bennett Zimmerman

Roberta Seid, Ph.D.

Michael Wise, Ph.D.

Israel Research TeamYoram Ettinger

Brig. Gen (Ret.) David Shahaf

Prof. Ezra Sohar

Dr. David Passig

Avraham Shvout Yakov Faitelson

PCBS: Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics



4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

Millions of People

Source: ICBS, Final Assessments of Population in Judea, Samaria & Gaza, 1996, Julia Zemel, December 22, 1997;

Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, Demographic Indicators of the Palestinian Territory, 1997 - 2015

1996 2007

2.1MN

3.8MN

Israeli and Arab Population Data

Judea, Samaria and Gaza(1996 & 2007)

Israel Central

Bureau of Statistics

(ICBS)

Palestine Central

Bureau of Statistics

(PCBS)

• PCBS 2007 population total for

Judea & Samaria and Gaza was3.8 million, 90% above the ICBS

1996 figure of 2.1 million.

The two central bureaus of statistics

cannot be accurate since…

• Such growth would indicate a

compound annual growth rate

of 5.5% per annum, almost twice as

high as the leading countries in the

world, such as Afghanistan, Sierra

Leon, Somalia, Niger and Eritrea.



Population measurement requires accurate recording and verification of:

Beginning Base Population

+ Births- Deaths

+ Immigration

- Emigration

= Ending Base Population

Study investigated the 1997 PCBS numbers, factor by factor, against data

released each year by other PA and Israeli governmental agencies.

Arab Population

In Judea, Samaria & Gaza


Methodology



4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0

Millions of People

Examination of the base population data

(1997 PCBS Census)

December 1996

PA Health Ministry

2.27MN

June 1997

PCBS Census

2.78MN

2.111MN

December 1996

ICBS Report

24K Half-Year Growth

210K Jerusalem Arabs

325K Residents Abroad

113K Additional Increase

648K Total excess over ICBS

Before Census Census Era

A 30% inflation is documented in the 1997 census, which is the Palestinian base population data.

3%-5% was the ICBS-PCBS gap until the 1997 census.ICBS’ accuracy is validated, when examined against Palestinian agencies.



“We counted 325,000 people living outside of the Palestinian

lands for more than one year, who carry Palestinian ID cards

and can return at any time. This number is a minimum, and is notprecise because we could not contact all the families living abroad.”

Hassan Abu LibdahHead of PCBS

News Conference held at Al-Bireh

“The First Results of the Census”

February 26, 1998

Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics Census

Inclusion of Residents Living Abroad

According to internationally accepted demographic standards, overseas residents who are

abroad for over a year are not counted demographically. Israel abides by such standards;

the PCBS does not.



Census Coverage

A comprehensive population enumeration always depends on the essence and the nature of the census. In general, populationcensuses cover all persons residing within the limits of a certain country, at a specific time. A population census is

based on the following:

1. De-facto Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their existence in the area of enumeration at

census moment, regardless of their usual place of residence.

2. De-jure Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their usual place of residence, regardless of

their presence at the census moment.

For the first ever Palestinian census, the de-facto approach was adopted with some

exceptions. The census count included the following categories:

A – The Categories underwent complete data collection.

1. All persons present in the Palestinian territories on the census reference date, irrespective of nationality, purpose of stay and

place of residence in the Palestinian territories.

2. All temporarily living abroad (for one year prior to the night of the reference date) and who have a usual place of residence

in the Palestinian territories. Those persons are enumerated as parts of their households.

3. All Palestinians studying abroad irrespective of the study period and the period of stay abroad

along with all Palestinian detainees in the Israeli jails regardless of the detention period.

B – Palestinian abroad: Categories underwent data collection on their numbers and sex

only This category includes Palestinians who live abroad for more than one year

and who have a usual place of residence in the Palestinian territories and have

identity cards (except for students and detainees enumerated in the previous

category) irrespective of the purpose of stay abroad.

http://www.pcbs.org/phc_97/phc_covr.aspx

Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics Census

Inclusion of Residents Living Abroad



Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, 2007

Census Coverage (per PCBS website)

• “The PHC-2007 has been conducted on the

basis of de-facto, taking into consideration

minor local circumstances.”

• “This approach is identical to the

implementation of PHC-1997.”



2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0ICBS 1996

+ 8 Years

Less deaths and emigration

CEC October 2004 Voting Report

• 1.3MN Eligible Voters

Resident in Territories

• 200K Eligible Voters Abroad

87%

Resident

13%

Abroad

1.5MN

1.3MN

1.85MN

1.3M1.3MN

PCBS Forecast

(2004)

Millions of PeoplePA Central Election Commission (CEC)

Eligible Adult (18 year old and older) DocumentationOctober 2004 & January 2005 Voting Reports

The October 2004 CEC Voting Report, with specific information on 1.3 million adults living in the

Territories, undermines the original 1997 PA Projection and confirms that the 1997 Census Base

included Palestinians living abroad. The residential base measured by the ICBS in the mid-1990s

produces an exact match with the 1.3 million residents found on current CEC voter rolls.

“Adults expected to be 18 and above by 2004”



120

80

40

Births/YearPCBS Birth Numbers

vs. Births documented by PA Ministry of Health

160

200520042003200220012000199919981997

0

Thousands

of Births/Year

A 40,000 annual gap between PCBS births and PA Ministry of Health recorded births.

Documentation covers village mid-wives and clinics. Home deliveries: around 5%

only.

Documentation is essential for daily movement, for using international passages(800,000 annual exits/entries), for UNRWA child allowances, for access to Israel

PCBS

PA Ministry of Health

2006 2007 2008



120

80

40

Births/Year

Births documented by PA Ministry of Health

confirmed by PA Ministry of Education Records

160

200520042003200220012000199919981997

0

= PCBS numbers = PA Ministry of Health

documentation

Thousands

of Births/Year

PA Ministry

Of Education

1 st Grade Students

6 Years Later

About 100% of 6 year old children register to first grade, according to the World Bank,

European and Israeli studies. A high dropout rate starts at 3rd grade.

PA Ministry of Health’s documentation of births is compatible with PA Ministry of

Education’s documentation of first graders registration (6 years later). Both are well belowPCBS numbers.

2003 2004

2006 2007 2008



120

80

40

160

200420032002200120001999199819971996

0

Net Entries(Exits)

In Thousands/Year

Migration/Year

PCBS 1997 Net-Immigration Assumption

PCBS population numbers included an assumption of 45,000 net immigration annually,

beginning 2001 until 2015.

The eruption of Intifadah II in Sept. 2000 has precluded net immigration, but Israel’s

demographic establishment never examined the PCBS and was unaware of its assumptions.

2005 2006 2007 2008



Migration to Israel’s Green LineLegal migrants only – Double Count

1993 - 2003

From 1993 – 2003, over 150,000 residents of Judea & Samaria and Gaza received Israeli IDsunder family reunification programs (105,000 since 1997). They are doubly-counted (as “Green

Line” Arabs and as West Bankers. This phenomenon was stopped by a 2003 amendment to the

Citizenship Law (Source: November 2003 Population Authority, Israel Ministry of Interior

Report.)



Study ResultsYear by Year Detail

Population models should be transparent with clearly defined starting, intermediate and ending

points, so that researchers can assess the data, factor by factor. Many current estimates useinformation released by the PCBS to build population forecasts.



Study Results: 2004-2008

Population models should be transparent with clearly defined starting, intermediate and ending

points, so that researchers can assess the data, factor by factor. Many current estimates use – without

scrutin - information released b the PCBS to build o ulation forecasts.

PCBS’ 2.5 million:

66% “inflation”

PCBS’ 4 million:

1.2 million gap



Millions of People

4.0

3.5

3.0

PCBS Numbers:

3.83 Million Total

2.42 Million J&S1.41 Million Gaza

2.5

2.0

PA MOH Births Difference: 238K

Birth Alterations Difference: 70K

“The 1.34 Million

Person Gap”

Deaths Difference: 33K

Immigration &

Emigration Error Difference: 310K

Migration to Israel Difference: 105K

Jerusalem Arabs Difference: 210K

Residents

Living Abroad Difference: 325K

Jump Over ICBS Difference: 113K

AIDRG Findings:

2.49 Million Total

1.41 Million J&S

1.08 Million Gaza

}Errors in PCBS Projection

The Million Person Gap(By Mid-Year 2004)



Population BreakdownIsrael, Judea, Samaria and Gaza

(2009)

JewsJewsJews

West Bank

Arabs

Israeli

ArabsGaza

Arabs

Israeli

Arabs

West Bank

Arabs

Israeli

Arabs

Israel

81% Jewish

4:1 Jewish/Arab Ratio

Israel

& J&S

67% Jewish


Since the 1960s

Israel

J&S

and Gaza

59% Jewish


Jewish Affiliated

J d & S i



Judea & SamariaTrend of Population Growth

(1950-2008)

1950 1960 1970

Jordanian Period 1950-1967

Low population Growth rate 0.9%High fertility rate

High infant mortality rate

High Net-Emigration

Israeli Administration ’67-92Pre-Fall Surge:

Health Improvements

Infant mortality declines

Life expectancy increases

Net-emigration decreases

1980 1990 2000

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

• 1992-2008

-- Population Growth rate 1.8%

-- Declining Birthrate

--High Emigration

--

Family Planning--Teen pregnancy declines

--Record High Median Wedding Age

--Expanded Education

--Record divorce rate

--From rural to poor urban

As evidenced by global precedents of integration between Western World and Third

World societies, an initial significant growth is a prelude to a substantial decline.

Growth rates in J&S are experiencing the normal stages of population development.

Growth rates for J&S are approaching levels of a developed Western society and trend

toward Israeli Jews growth rates.

Annual Population

Growth Rates

2008



In USA:

Mr. Bennett Zimmerman

Ph: 310-617-4180

E-mail: [email protected]

Arab Population

In the West Bank & Gaza


Contact Information

Arab Population in the West Bank and Gaza: The Million Person Gap was presented at

the January 2006 Herzliya Conference. The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies

published the Study in February 2006. The original study can be found atwww.aidrg.com

T t l F tilit R t (TFR) G

http://www.aidrg.com/

http://www.aidrg.com/



10

Total Fertility Rate

Births/Woman

8

6

4

2

0

Total Fertility Rates (TFR) Gap“Green Line” Jews and Moslems

1960 – 2008

Source:

Israel Central Bureau of Statistics

Forecasts for Israel apply past high fertility rates to future forecast, despite long-term decline in

Israel Arab fertility. Fertility gap plunged from 6 births per woman to 0.7.

2008 – Arab fertility rate declines to 3.5 births per woman; Jewish fertility rate grows to 2.8.

9.23

1960/

1964

3.39

8.47

1965/

1969

3.36

1970/

1974

3.28

1975/

1979

3.00

5.54

1980/

1984

2.80

4.70

1985/

1989

2.79

4.67

1990/

1994

2.62

4.67

1995/

1999

2.62

4.36

2004

2.71

Jews Moslems

7.25

9.22

2.83.5

2008

T t l F tilit R t (TFR) G



5

Total Fertility Rate

Births/Woman

4

3

2

1

0

Total Fertility Rates (TFR) Gap“Green Line” Jews and Arabs

2000 - 2008

Israeli Jewish Fertility rates, the highest in the industrialized world, have stabilized and

even

started to rise across the board in all sectors (Orthodox, secular, and Olim from USSR).

After plateauing from 1985 – 2000, Israeli Arab fertility rates have been steadily falling.

2007 – 3.5 Arab TFR and 2.8 Jewish TFR. From a 6 children gap

2000 2002 2003

Jews Arabs

2004

2.71

4.404.22

4. 004.17

2.732.642.66

2007

2.8

3.5



“Gall p” S r e on Ideal Famil Si e



“Gallup” Survey on Ideal Family SizeConvergence in Fertility Intentions

“There is not a large difference [in fertility intentions] in a region where fertility could be a

potent political tool. . . The possibility that the once burgeoning Palestinian Arab population

in Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip will eventually be the majority in that region has

been widely accepted as a looming threat to Israel. . . However the assumption that

Palestinians will eventually out-number the Jewish population in the region has come

under recent criticism.

“The recent Gallup data is instructive because there is clearly an element of personal

choice in having children, and thus Gallup finds strong evidence that people’s preferred

family size has a strong bearing on actual fertility rates. Gallup has been measuring

American’s notion of ideal number of children since 1936, the trend lines for preferred

number of children and the U.S. are quite parallel.

“Gallup finds no difference in preferred number of children by age in Israel, but does

among [younger] Palestinians.

“Gallup” Comments

-- Lydia Saad, “Attitudes Toward Family Size Among Palestinians and Israelis”,

Gallup News Service, March 17 2006



Fertility Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Jews

Israel’s Official Forecast(2000 - 2025)

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2000 - 05 2021 - 25

2.6 2.6

2.4

2.1

Total Fertility Rates

The ICBS assumed Jewish fertility rates (births expected per woman) would decrease from

2.6 in 2000 to 2.4 in 2025.

Net Immigration was expected to drop from 10,000/year to 7,000/year in the high case

and 4,000/year to -2,000 emigration in the low case

High Scenario

Medium Scenario

Low Scenario



Actual Fertility vs. Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Jews(2000 - 2007)

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2000 - 05 2021 - 25

2.6 2.6

2.4

2.1

Actuals

2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

2.66 2.64 2.73 2.71 2.77 2.8 2.8

Actual fertility rates for the Jewish sector were higher - annually - than the highest rates

Considered by the ICBS in its forecast.


Fertility Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Israel Moslems



Fertility Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Israel Moslems

Israel’s Official Forecast(2000 - 2025)

3.8

The ICBS assumed Moslem fertility rates (births expected per woman) would remain

stable at 4.7 in the high case scenario and gradually drop to 2.6 in the low case scenario

No immi ration or emi ration scenarios were considered for the sector

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2000 - 05 2021 - 25

2.6

4.50

4.74.7


High Case Scenario

Medium Case Scenario

Low Case Scenario



Actuals vs. Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Israel Moslems(2000 - 2004)

3.8

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2000 - 05 2021 - 25

2.6

4.50

4.74.7


Actuals

2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Moslems 1,090 83% 4.74 4.58 4.50 4.36

Christians 116 9% 2.55 2.29 2.31 2.13

Druze 112 8% 3.07 2.77 2.85 2.66

Total Arab 1,318 4.40 4.22 4.17 4.02 3.9 3.6 3.5

Moslem

Total Arab

Actual fertility rates for Moslems (especially) and for Arabs

were decreasing 20 years faster than ICBS projections.

West Bank & Gaza Education Sector Analysis



West Bank & Gaza Education Sector AnalysisThe World Bank , September 7, 2006

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWESTBANKGAZA/Resources/EducationSectorAnalysisSept06.pdf The enrollment rate for grade 1 is almost 100%.

PCBS projected a 24% increase in age 6 during 1999-2005(almost 4% population growth rate expected).

Enrollment to 1 grade decreased by 8% (page 8).32% gap cause: fertility decline and emigration increase.

Higher education enrollment doubled during last decade.44% of 18-21 age group were in full-time education in

2004. Similar enrolment by refugees and non-refugees.22% of 25-29 year old women have post-primary

education, compared with 10% among 45-49 year old women.

UNESCO’s Director General May 22 2007: “an abrupt

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWESTBANKGAZA/Resources/EducationSectorAnalysisSept06.pdf

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWESTBANKGAZA/Resources/EducationSectorAnalysisSept06.pdf



UNESCO s Director General, May 22, 2007: an abruptslowdown in the rate of growth... also in many countrieswhere women have only limited access to education andemployment... There is not the slightest reason to assumethat the decline in fertility will miraculously stop just atreplacement level (2.1 births per woman)...”

UN Population Division: Sharp decline in Muslim fertilityrates – except Yemen and Afghanistan – is mostlyresponsible for a 25% reduction in population projections.

Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt, American Enterprise Institute,Washington, DC: “[AIDRG] caught the demographic

profession asleep at the switch.

palestinian population

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