A monthly publication of the Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) Unit, World Food Program me, Pakistan

1 Pakistan Market Price Bulletin-May 2017

Pakistan Market Price Bulletin May 2017 Issue

H i g h l i g h t s

In April 2017, the average retail price of wheat, wheat flour and rice Irri-6 slightly decreased by 2.2%, 2.1% and 0.1%, respectively, while the price of

rice Basmati slightly increased by 3.2% from the previous month (March 2017);

Headline inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly increased by 1.4% from March 2017, whereas it has increased by 4.8% from the

same month last year (April 2016);

There were negligible to slight fluctuations in the prices of non-cereal food commodities compared to the previous month. The prices of lentil Masoor,

eggs and live chicken slightly decreased by 2%, 5.8% and 2.2%, respectively, and the prices of pulse Dal Moong and sugar negligibly decreased by

0.3% and 0.6%, respectively. On the other side, the price of pulse Dal Mash slightly increased by 2.1%, and the prices of vegetable ghee and cooking

oil both negligibly increased by 0.2%;

In April 2017, the average ToT slightly increased by 2.2% from the previous month;

In May 2017, the total global wheat production for 2016-2017 is projected at 737.83 million MT, showing a decrease of 13.53 million MT compared

to the projection made last month.

Headline inflation slightly increased In April 2017, the headline inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly increased by 1.4% from the previous month (March 2017), whereas it has increased by 4.8% from the same month last year (April 2016). The CPI for food has negligibly increased by 1.7% from March 2017 and 4.4% from April 2016; while the CPI for non-food increased by 1.2% from last month and 5.1% from April 2016. The weighted contribution of food groups in the overall CPI has increased from 226.16 indices in March 2017 to 230.25 in April 2017, registering a positive change of 1.81%. Compared to April 2016 the indices increased by 3.9%1.

Retail prices of staple cereals remained stable In April 2017, the average retail price of wheat, wheat flour, rice Irri-6 and rice Basmati have slightly fluctuated from the previous month (March 2017). The prices of wheat and wheat flour across the country’s main markets2 were recorded at PKR 34.54 and PKR 38.98 per kg, indicating a slight decrease by 2.23% and 2.13%, respectively. The price of rice Irri-6 was recorded at PKR 47.65 registering a negligible decrease of 0.14%, whereas the price for rice Basmati was recorded at PKR 71.65 reflecting a slight increase of 3.2% from previous month.

Compared to three months ago (January 2017), the prices of wheat and wheat flour in April slightly decreased by 1.7% and 2%, while that of rice Irri-6 slightly increased by 1.8% and rice Basmati significantly increased by 7.7%.

1Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Islamabad

Comparing the prices of these commodities with six months ago (October 2016), the prices of wheat and rice Irri-6 negligibly increased by 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively, while the price of wheat flour negligibly decreased by 0.9% and the price of rice Basmati significantly increased by 9.2%. On a one-year comparison (April 2016), the price of wheat and wheat flour negligibly increased by 1.2% and 0.5%, respectively. Whereas, the price rice Irri-6 slightly increased by 8.8%, and that of rice Basmati significantly increased by 11.8%. Retail prices of non-cereal food commodities remained somewhat stable In April 2017, there were negligible to slight fluctuations in the prices of non-cereal food commodities compared to the previous month. The prices of lentil Masoor, eggs and live chicken slightly decreased by 2%, 5.8% and 2.2%, respectively; the prices of pulse Dal Moong and sugar decreased negligibly by 0.3% and 0.58%, respectively. Whereas, the price of pulse Dal Mash slightly increased by 2.1%, and the prices of vegetable ghee and cooking oil both negligibly increased by 0.2%.

Compared to three months ago (January 2016), the prices of the majority of non-cereal commodities in April 2017 registered slight to significant fluctuations. The prices of eggs and lentil Masoor significantly decreased by 32.7% and 12.5%, respectively, while the prices of pulse Dal Mash, pulse Dal

2Lahore, Multan, Karachi Peshawar and Quetta

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Figure 1: Retail prices of cereals (April 2016 - April 2017)

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Figure 2 : Retail prices of non-cereal commodities (April 2016 - April 2017)

Sugar Veg Ghee Cooking Oil Chicken Live

Masoor Moong Mash Eggs

A monthly publication of the Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) Unit, World Food Program me, Pakistan

2 Pakistan Market Price Bulletin- May 2017

Moong and sugar slightly decreased by 7.1%, 6.5%, and 5.7%, respectively. On contrary, the price of live chicken significantly increased by 38.2%, whereas vegetable ghee and cooking oil slightly increased by 1.3% and 1.5%, respectively. Over a period of six months (starting October 2016), there were slight price increases for live chicken (8.6%), vegetable ghee (3.63%) and cooking oil (2.4%). On the other hand, there was a significant drop in the prices of pulse Dal Mash (23.1%), lentil Masoor (21.6%), pulse dal Moong (15.1%) and sugar (15%). Compared to a year ago (April 2016), the prices of pulses Dal Mash, Dal Moong and lentil Masoor significantly decreased by 32.5%, 23%, and 20.1%, respectively, while sugar and live chicken slightly decreased by 5.2% and 8.4%, respectively. Meanwhile, the prices increased for eggs (15.8%), vegetable ghee (3.6%) and cooking oil (2.4%).

Major markets across the country were found generally well integrated for most of the cereal and non-cereal products in April 2017, with the exception of Lahore, where the prices of pulse Mash and lentil Masoor were slightly higher than other big cities mainly because Lahore is located farther from producing districts. Decrease in estimated global wheat production In May 2017, the total global wheat production projection has decreased to 737.833 million MT from the estimated projection of 751.364 million MT in April 2017.

This 13.53 million MT projection decline is mainly due to a decrease in production. The total global wheat consumption for 2016/17 is projected slightly lower from last year due to reduced feed and residual usage which is partially offset by increased food use. The projected production decline is offset by the overall lower consumption and record expected imports resulting in global ending stocks projection being raised by 2.9 million MT this month5.

Compared to March 2017, wheat prices in April 2017 decreased in Pakistan (by 2.21%)6, USA (1.7%)7, Afghanistan (0.4%) and Australia (2.5%)8, while the price increased for India (1.1%)9. The domestic retail wheat price in Pakistan was 90% higher than in the USA, 88% higher than in Australia, while it was 20% and 5% lower than in India and Afghanistan, respectively.

3 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA. 4 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA. 5 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA. 6 Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan. 7 FAO Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) 8 FAO Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) 9 FAO Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) 10 http://www.psopk.com

Prices of petroleum products increased slightly The April 2017 retail prices of Super Petrol and High Speed Diesel (HSD) were recorded at PKR 74 and PKR 83 per liter respectively10. Compared to the previous month (March 2017), the prices of Super Petrol and HSD increased by 1.4% and 1.2%, respectively. On a three month (January 2017) comparison, the prices have slightly increased for both Super Petrol and HSD by 8.8% and 7.5%, respectively. However, on a six months (October 2016) comparison, the prices have significantly increased for Super Petrol by 15.1% and for HSD by 14.5%. Compared to prices a year ago (April 2016), the same significant increase of 15.1% for Super Petrol and 14.5% for HSD was recorded.

Terms-of-Trade (ToT)11 increased In April 2017, the average ToT slightly increased by 2.18% from previous month and was recorded at 14.43 kg of wheat flour, mainly due to a seasonal decrease in price of wheat flour during the harvest. Compared to three months ago (January 2017), the ToT slightly increased by 2%. A very small improvement of 0.9% was observed from six months ago (October 2016), and of 0.7% from the same time last year (April 2016).

However, the ToT varied across different cities due to variations either in wheat flour price or the labor wage12, or both. The highest ToT was observed in Lahore and Karachi at 15.9 kg and 15.3 kg, respectively, mainly due to higher wage rates, while the lowest ToT was in Peshawar at 13.2 kg. Despite relatively low wheat flour price in Peshawar the ToT remained the lowest due to lower wage rates13.

11The ratio of the price of the primary income good relative to the price of the primary

expenditure good, it simply measures the purchasing power of a particular livelihood

group. In this Bulletin, the Terms of Trade (ToT) between casual unskilled labor wage and

Wheat flour is applied. This ToT reveals how many Kilograms of Wheat flour can be purchased with one-day casual unskilled labor wage, but does not say how many days a

month a laborer can get to cover the family food needs. 12 The income base for computation of ToT is the average wage rate of five major cities

(Lahore, Multan, Karachi, Peshawar & Quetta) 13Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

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Figure 3: Global and regional wheat prices (April 2016 - April 2017)

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Figure 4 : Petroleum prices (April 2016- April 2017)

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Figure 5: Casual labor/Wheat flour Terms of Trade (April 2016 - April 2017)

TOT Wheat flour Price PKR

A monthly publication of the Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) Unit, World Food Program me, Pakistan

3 Pakistan Market Price Bulletin- May 2017

Retail prices of main food commodities in major cities – April 2017

Major Commodities

Markets

Current Prices April 2017) / KG

% Change Over Change Direction

PKR USD 1M 3M 6M 1Y IM 3M 6M 1Y

WHEAT

Lahore 35.63 0.34 0.00% 2.89% 3.64% 2.89% ► ► ► ►

Multan 31.06 0.30 -7.00% -7.27% -4.05% -1.39% ▼ ▼ ► ►

Karachi 36.00 0.34 -1.64% -1.37% 0.00% 2.86% ▼ ► ► ►

Peshawar 35.00 0.33 -2.78% -2.78% 2.94% 4.48% ▼ ► ► ►

Quetta 35.00 0.33 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -2.78% ► ► ► ►

WHEAT FLOUR

Lahore 37.65 0.36 -0.92% -0.92% -0.92% -2.46% ► ► ► ►

Multan 35.88 0.34 -5.34% -5.59% -4.01% -1.37% ▼ ▼ ► ►

Karachi 43.42 0.41 -3.15% -2.34% -0.77% 6.93% ▼ ► ► ►

Peshawar 37.96 0.36 -1.19% -1.19% 1.28% -1.08% ▼ ► ► ►

Quetta 40.00 0.38 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% ► ► ► ►

RICE IRRI-6

Lahore 57.00 0.54 0.00% 7.41% 7.41% 16.16% ► ▲ ▲ ▲

Multan 40.00 0.38 0.00% 0.00% -6.98% 11.89% ► ► ▼ ▲

Karachi 44.58 0.43 0.00% 1.41% 1.41% 2.93% ► ► ► ►

Peshawar 46.67 0.45 -0.70% -0.87% -2.10% 14.53% ► ► ► ▲

Quetta 50.00 0.48 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% ► ► ► ►

RICE BASMATI BROKEN

Lahore 70.18 0.67 3.97% 11.97% 11.97% 21.67% ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲

Multan 75.84 0.72 2.25% 9.31% 12.36% 19.75% ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲

Karachi 73.08 0.70 1.92% 4.97% 4.97% 6.44% ▲ ► ► ►

Peshawar 71.67 0.68 0.00% 1.17% 4.89% 8.87% ► ► ► ►

Quetta 67.50 0.64 8.87% 12.50% 12.50% 3.85% ▲ ▲ ▲ ►

SUGAR

Lahore 63.60 0.61 0.06% -0.69% -11.91% -1.29% ► ► ▼ ►

Multan 57.63 0.55 -1.66% -8.89% -18.26% -7.42% ▼ ▼ ▼ ►

Karachi 61.04 0.58 -0.72% -5.31% -14.20% -4.40% ► ▼ ▼ ►

Peshawar 59.67 0.57 -1.00% -8.79% -16.79% -7.96% ► ▼ ▼ ►

Quetta 61.00 0.58 0.33% -4.69% -13.78% -5.06% ► ► ▼ ►

VEG. GHEE (TIN)

Lahore 184.00 1.76 0.00% 0.00% 4.55% 4.55% ► ► ► ►

Multan 188.00 1.79 0.86% 2.17% 6.82% 6.82% ► ► ▲ ►

Karachi 181.20 1.73 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% ► ► ► ►

Peshawar 184.00 1.76 0.00% 4.55% 4.55% 4.55% ► ► ► ►

Quetta 176.00 1.68 0.00% 0.00% 2.33% 2.33% ► ► ► ►

COOKING OIL (TIN)

Lahore 186.00 1.77 0.00% 0.00% 4.49% 4.49% ► ► ► ►

Multan 190.00 1.81 0.85% 2.15% 2.15% 2.15% ► ► ► ►

Karachi 187.20 1.79 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% ► ► ► ►

Peshawar 188.00 1.79 0.00% 5.62% 5.62% 5.62% ► ▲ ▲ ►

Quetta 178.00 1.70 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% ► ► ► ►

CHICKEN LIVE (FARM)

Lahore 154.25 1.47 -0.87% 46.75% 9.70% -7.83% ► ▲ ▲ ►

Multan 166.46 1.59 -3.69% 36.35% 4.44% -6.22% ▼ ▲ ► ►

Karachi 186.82 1.78 -6.59% 40.03% 21.97% -9.71% ▼ ▲ ▲ ►

Peshawar 166.75 1.59 -3.50% 36.68% 0.45% -8.63% ▼ ▲ ► ►

Quetta 181.25 1.73 4.17% 33.03% 7.41% -9.38% ▲ ▲ ▲ ►

Lentil Masoor, Washed

Lahore 138.93 1.33 -2.55% -11.29% -16.97% -13.72% ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼

Multan 110 1.05 -3.51% -11.41% -18.01% -19.76% ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼

Karachi 117.41 1.12 -1.18% -7.81% -21.32% -18.32% ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼

Peshawar 104.42 1.00 -0.80% -17.70% -25.81% -23.48% ► ▼ ▼ ▼

Quetta 120.00 1.15 -1.64% -14.29% -26.15% -25.58% ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼

Pulse Dal Moong, Washed

Lahore 131.97 1.26 -4.07% -13.72% -17.15% -19.32% ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼

Multan 112.5 1.07 0.00% -2.17% -10.30% -21.39% ► ► ▼ ▼

Karachi 117.93 1.13 -1.15% -6.80% -21.07% -26.65% ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼

Peshawar 105.48 1.01 -0.37% -8.78% -18.28% -25.46% ► ▼ ▼ ▼

Quetta 137.50 1.31 4.17% 0.00% -8.33% -22.54% ▲ ► ▼ ▼

Pulse Dal Mash, Washed

Lahore 228.93 2.18 2.17% -4.19% -14.07% -21.54% ▲ ► ▼ ▼

Multan 163.33 1.56 -0.41% -12.11% -22.53% -37.18% ► ▼ ▼ ▼

Karachi 153.56 1.47 1.05% -10.10% -33.79% -42.45% ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼

Peshawar 177.67 1.70 2.29% -5.50% -25.87% -32.26% ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼

Quetta 196.25 1.87 4.95% -4.85% -20.71% -30.22% ▲ ► ▼ ▼

1M= One month, 3M= Three months, 6M= Six month, 1Y= One year ▲Price increase above normal price fluctuation, ▼Price decrease above normal price fluctuation, ►Normal price fluctuations

Price fluctuation is considered normal if the price change is 1% during one month, 5% during three and six months, and 10% during one year period.

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