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Summary

The NDVI satellite images of various regions of Pakistan indicate that the Kharif crops

were at various stages of growth during July 2014.The rice was being transplanted or at early growth stage.The cotton and sugarcane were at middle/advanced stages depending on time of sowing. The picking and marketing of early sown cotton started in July.

Field indicators show that the cotton production during current year will be on a higher side than last year.

Some of the ginneries in Sindh and south-ren Punjab became operational during this month.

The irrigation water supply during July 2014 from canal head works was 15.474 MAF compared to 15.296 MAF.

In Punjab, IRRI (coarse) rice transplan-tation was completed by early July . The basmati rice was still under transplanta-tion by end of July and will be completed by mid of August. In Sindh, IRRI rice was mostly transplanted by mid-July and the sowing will be completed by end of Au-gust. In overall, the crop sowing operation is satisfactory in most parts of Punjab and Sindh.

During Kharif (April-July) 2014-15, the irrigation water supply from canal head works was 42.468 MAF, which was up by1.74 MAF compared to same period of last year. In Punjab the supply was 22.729 MAF, Sindh 18.158 MAF, Balo-chistan 0.587 MAF, which was up by 3.09 percent, 6.67 percent and 4.51 percent in Punjab and Sindh respectively while lower by 1.80 percent in Balochistan, in

Crop Situation: July, 2014

SUPARCO, the National Space Agency of Pakistan, started the program on “Monitoring of Crops through Satellite Technology” during the year 2005.This is a perpetual study encompassing all growing seasons around the year. The purpose of this initiative is to reinforce support for policy makers, planners and private sector for food security, stocking, marketing, trade and industrial management. The final crop estimates are released by end of March for Rabi crops and mid of October for kharif crops.The Food and Agriculture organization of United Nations, (FAO-UN) pro-vided technical backstopping for analytics and transfer of technology.The wheat, cotton, rice, sugarcane, maize and potato crops are being cove-red under this program. In addition, large scale geospatial applications of satellite remote sensing technology has been made for monitoring/mitiga-tion of natural disasters (floods, flash floods, and drought) and providing reconnaissance detailed information ordained for the uplift of agriculture and allied pursuits.

Pakistan Satellite based Crop Monitoring System Bulletin is a joint monthly publication of SUPARCO and FAO, UN.Pakistan Satellite based Crop Monitoring System Bulletin is a joint monthly publication of SUPARCO and FAO, UN.

CRoP SITuATIoN: JuLY 2014

(NDVI): CRoP GRowTh PRoFILeS AT DIVISIoNAL & PRoVINCIAL LeVeL 07VeGeTATIoN DIFFeReNCe 30Th JuLY 2014 09TeMPoRAL VeGeTATIoN ChANGeS 10

Nov 2012– Jan 2013

Disputed Territory AGRo-MeT CoNDITIoNS: JuLY, 2014 13DAILY hYDRoLoGICAL STATuS AT INDuS BASIN: JuLY 2014 19IRRIGATIoN wATeR SuPPLY SITuATIoN: JuLY 2014 20FeRTILIzeR SITuATIoN: JuLY 2014 21

FIeLD VIew JuLY 2014 22AGRI. ReCoMMeNDATIoNS 24

CRoPS STATISTICS 26

PAKISTAN: SATELLITE BASED CROP MONITORING SYSTEM

MINISTRY oF NATIoNAL FooD SeCuRITY AND

ReSeARChBuLLETIN

1-August-2014Volume IV, Issue 8, Serial No. 44

PaK-SCmS

01INSIDE THIS ISSUE

Maximum temperature during July, 2014 were observed at least 20C higher than normal values across the country

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa the supply was 0.587 MAF which was lower by 8.92 percent compared to same period of last year.

Total nutrient offtake during the first

three months of Kharif 2014-15 (April to June) was about 780.5 thousand nu-trients tons, which showed downward trend of 12.6 percent over the same time-frame of Kharif 2013. Nitrogen offtake decreased by 11.7 percent, phosphate

offtake decreased by 18.8 percent and potash offtake increased by 49.2 percent.

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 30th July, 2014

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2 | PAK-SCMS Bulletin

CROPS SITUATION

Volume IV, Issue 8, Sr no. 44

PAK-SCMS Bulletin | 3

methodology The crop forecasting for Kharif crops during July/August is based on trend lines. The final estimates will be based on receipt of high resolution satellite data to assure high confidence level with degree of error of around ± 2.5 percent. The schedule for release of statistics of Kharif crops 2014-15 is as follows:

Kharif Crops Situation 2014-15

The early season, +7.5 percent level of forecast is based on the historical trend lines. The mid season +5.0 percent level includes analyses using data from satellite based vegetation index (NDVI) and relevant ground information such as fertilizer, irrigation water and others. The crop area estimate at + 2.5 is based on satellite supported area frame system (stratified / probability pro-portion based) plus processing of 5 meter multispectral satellite imagery. The yield at + 2.5 level is estimated by using 1000 m SPoT VGT satellite imagery and ground data (fertilizer, irrigation water, rainfall and temperature regime) for the given crop.

Agro-meteorologicAl SituAtion during July 2014Agriculture meteorological condition outlines the prevalent meteorological conditions and its possible impacts on crops in term of crop developments and final productivity. Among various meteorological parameters, temperature regime and rainfall contri-bute significantly in terms of final yield. We have mainly compared the current season monthly data against the climate normal to delineate the possible impacts on crops evapotranspiration, crop water productivity, irrigation efficiency and others. Rainfall and maximum temperature among main agriculture districts meteorological stations were mainly considered for July, 2014. This July has proved well below normal in term of cumulative monthly rainfall amount and were coupled with late snow/glacier melting in Northern areas. effective rainfall remained less suitable for major crops i.e., cotton, sugarcane, rice, maize and other crops. Range of deviation from normal climate is observed for Lahore, Sialkot, Jhelum, Badin, Shorkot, Mianwali, Chhor, hyderabad, Larkana, Sukkur, Bannu and others.


CROPS SITUATION

Maximum temperature during July, 2014 were observed at least 20C higher than normal values across the country. Dir and Saidu Sharif were observed to be higher by at least 80C higher than normal. This above normal temperature have triggered kharif crops water requirement to sustain their physiological process like photosynthesis



cottonCotton crop has an indeterminate growth pattern and has no distinct stage between vegetative and reproductive stage. This characteristic makes cotton picking a multi-stage picking phenomenon. It has a very dynamic growth response to environment and management. Site-specific management strategies need to be taken into consideration to optimize yields. Furthermore, management strategies should be flexible to allow for changing environmental conditions. Cotton has one of complex insect pest and disease problem throughout main growing area of Punjab and Sindh. Most common are Cotton Leaf Curl Virus (CLCV), bollworms, dusky cotton bug, thrips, armyworm, jassids and others.Cotton is under stress in some parts of Khairpur, Sanghar and adjoining areas due to high temperature and less rainfall In Pun-jab, cotton has been infested by sucking pests like jassids, whitefly, thrips, aphids etc. Farmers have effectively controlled the pest infestations. It is expected that cotton production will be on higher side than last year, if crop acreage and crop growth is not affected by rain/river floods later in the season. Cotlook “A” index has shown lower market price throughout the July, 2014.

riceIn Punjab, IRRI (coarse) rice transplantation was completed by early July and has reached heading or panicle formation stage. The basmati crop was under transplantation by end of July and will be completed by mid of August. In Sindh, IRRI rice was mostly transplanted by mid of July and will be completed by end of August. These districts include Jacobabad, Kashmore, Larkana, Shikarpur, Dadu, Qamber Shahdad Kot and Thatta. Given a situation of adequate irrigation water supply from canals, transplantation will be completed by end of August.The overall crop condition was satisfactory in most parts of Punjab and Sindh and production of more than 7 million tons is expected.

economic importance of basmati rice can been acknowledge by the fact that we have earned around 846 million uS$ through export during July 2013-June 2014 (Rice exporter Association of Pakistan). we are exporting basmati rice to more than 100 countries across the globe.


SugArcAneThe sugarcane crop was sown in Sindh on about 75 percent of the area in September, 2013. The rest of the crop in Sindh, and the entire crop of Punjab and KP were sown during February and March, 2014. The crop is at healthy growth stage in most part of the countries due to adequate water availability. Sugarcane crop is at crop development stage throughout Sindh and Punjab. The overall crop condition is satisfactory in most parts of Punjab and Sindh.



Source: FAS-USDA100.6 KB

` Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): Crop Growth Profile at Divisional Level

SuPARCo is acquiring MoDIS 250 m resolution data on daily basis and SPoT VGT 1000 m resolution data on 10 daily basis to assess crop growth. SPoT-5 high resolution data are being acquired during each cropping season to assess land surface changes through image classification. The SPOT VGT based graphs depicting temporal changes for various regions are as follows:



Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): Crop Growth Profile at Provincial Level


Vegetation Change: July 2014 vs. June 2014

Vegetation Change: July 2014 vs. July 2013

SATeLLITe IMAGeRY: SPoT VGT 1000M

TEMPORAL VegetatIoN ChaNgeS



temporal Vegetation Changes

Temporal Change: Kallar Tract, Punjab

Satellite Imagery: MODIS 250m Maturity Active Growth Harvesting Sowing/Land preparation

Temporal Change: Southern Punjab

Temporal Change: Larkana Division, Sindh


Satellite Imagery: MODIS 250m Maturity Active Growth Harvesting Sowing/Land preparation

Temporal Change: Sindh

Temporal Change: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Temporal Change: Pat Feeder Area of Balochistan

TeMPoRAL VegetatIoN ChaNgeS



agro-Met Conditions: Kharif (2013 and 2014)

Disputed Territory

July 2014

Disputed Territory

July 2013

Monthly Cumulative Precipitation (July 2013 and 2014):

Disputed Territory

Mean Max Temperature

Disputed Territory

Mean Min Temperature

Monthly Mean (Max & Min) Temperatures July 2014

AGRO-MET CONDITIONS

The Agro-met conditions during July were as follows:

1. There were three rainfall spells 1-5, 15-19 and 25-30 July; Northern areas and Balochistan received little higher rains than last year, rest of the agriculture plane received much lesser rain than last year. During July cumulative rainfall was 39% below normal and temperatures remain normal.

2. In August and September below normal rainfalls will be expected.


Cumulative Rainfall : July 2013 & 2014



Minimum temperature : July, 2014The ranges of minimum temperature (0C ) during July, 2014 were as follows:

AGRO-MET CONDITIONS


Maximum temperature : July, 2014The ranges of maximum temperature (0C ) during July , 2014 were as follows:



Relative Humidity Relative Humidity parameter along with wind speed has significant effect on crop growth through acceleration or decrease

in water evapo-transpiration from soil as well as crop canopy. humidity of an area depends upon wind speed, direction, air ambient temperature and surface conditions. Morning and evening relative humidity remained lesser in June and July due to less rain and higher temperatures than last year. This has increased crop water requirement to sustain scorching heat of June and July.

Disputed Territory

July 2014 (Morning)

Legend: %

Disputed Territory

July 2013 (Morning)

Relative Humidity July 2013 & 2014 (Morning):

Disputed Territory

July 2014 (Evening)

Legend: %

July 2013 (Evening)

Disputed Territory

Legend: %

Relative Humidity July 2013 & 2014 (Evening):

AGRO-MET CONDITIONS


Very low and high intensity radiations reduce the rate of photosynthesis and may even result in the closing of the stomata. This reduces vegetative growth of the plants. At a very high intensity, plants become thick and dwarf. It increases the rate of respiration and thus disturbs the photosynthesis-respiration balance.In addition to photosynthesis, light also plays role in chlorophyll formation. In the absence of light etiolin is produced in the plant. As a result, plants become yellowish which is called etiolating. estimated solar radiations have been derived from tem-perature regimes for all available locations. In July, day temperature slightly higher than last year so estimated solar radiation remained slightly higher. During July, estimated solar radiations in agriculture areas were as follows:

July 2013

Disputed Territory

Legend: MJ m-2 day-

July 2014

Disputed Territory

Legend: MJ m-2 day-1

Solar Radiation 2013 and 2014

Estimated Solar Radiation

SuPARCo is closely monitoring hydrological status of main rivers and reservoirs. At the end of July, the water level at Tar-bela and Mangla was 1494.95 and 1220.95 feet respectively above mean sea level (amsl).



Daily hydrological Status at Indus Basin: July, 2014

The inflows at RIM stations at Indus and other rivers are as follows:

AGRO-MET CONDITIONS


Irrigation Water Supply Situation: July, 2014

During Kharif(April-July) 2014-15, the irrigation water supply from canal head works was 42.468 MAF, which was up by1.74 MAF compared to same period of last year. In Punjab the supply was 22.729 MAF, Sindh 18.158 MAF,Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 0.587 MAF and Balochistan 0.994 MAF, which was up by 3.09 percent, 6.67 percent in Punjab and Sindh, while lower by 8.92 percent, 1.80 percent in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan respectively as compared

to same period of last year.

Source: Indus River System Authority (IRSA)



FERTILIzER SITUATION

Fertilizer Situation: July, 2014

Total nutrient offtake during the first three months of Kharif 2014-15 (April to June) was about 780.5 thousand nutrients tons, which showed downward trend of 12.6 percent over the same timeframe of Kharif 2013. Nitrogen offtake de-creased by 11.7 percent, phosphate offtake decreased by 18.8 percent and potash offtake increased by 49.2 percent. urea availability during Kharif 2014-15 is estimated to be around 2880 thousand tons comprising 386 thousand tons

of previous season left over, estimated local production of 2374 thousand tons and 120 thousand tons of imported supplies. Total urea offtake is projected to be around 2900 thousand tons during current Kharif season. Local production of urea is estimated on the basis of gas availability schedule provided by Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources. while DAP Kharif 2014-15 started with an opening balance of 96 thousand tons. Domestic production during the season is estimated to be 376 thousand tones and imported supplies of 48 thousand tons. Thus total availability of DAP will be around 519 thousand tons. The estimated demand of DAP is around 646 thousand tons.

• Provisional values are averages from the previous years. Source: NFDC

The fertilizer statistics and prices are depicted in the graphics below:

Fertilizer Offtake


Field View Punjab & Sindh: July, 2014Sugarcane crop at Rahim Yar Khan

Poorly germinated Cotton in South Punjab

Cotton Crop at Boll Stage

Poor Cotton Stand in South Punjab

Cotton and Sugarcane Crops

Poor Cotton Stand in Sindh

Rice Crop in Sindh Rice and Banana Crop in Sindh Banana Orchard in Sindh

Rice at different growth stages in Ghotki Good Cotton Stand in Khairpur Sun Drying of Dates in Khairpur

FIeLD VIew JULY 2014



Field View Sindh: July, 2014Healthy Cotton Crop in Khairpur

Autumn maize in Sindh

Animal Grazing on Crops Residues

Sorghum crop harvesting in Sindh

Farmers Interviewing in Sindh

Healthy Cotton Crop in Sanghar

Sugarcane in Shaheed Benazirabad Cotton in Shaheed Benazirabad Rice in Ghotki

Rice at Naushahro Feroze Banana crop at Naushahro Feroze Good Cotton at Daharki in Ghotki


AGRICULTURAL RECOMMENDATIONS


CROPS STATISTICS

Kharif Forecasts 2014-15 Second Forecast of Cotton Crop 2014-15

First Forecast of Rice Crop 2014-15

Second Forecast of Sugarcane Crop 2014-15

Kharif Forecasts 2014-15



Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research CommissionSPARC, Islamabad, Main Islamabad Highway 44000, Islamabad, Pakistan

Tel.: (+92) 51 4611792 Fax: (+92) 51 4611796E-mail: [email protected] http://www.suparco.gov.pk

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