pak monthly sitrep march 2016 and qtrly overview gen

XYZ PAKISTAN MONTHLY SITUATOIN REPORT MARCH 2016 – QUARTERLY REVIEW NORTH ZONE (KP, FATA, GB, AJK)

INTERNAL DOCUMENTS – EXTERNAL SHARING NOT AUTHORISED

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A. OVERVIEW 1. The 1

st Quarter of 2016 was marked with continued political and macro-economical stability, as the country

inches on gradual development over multiple agreements of global significance in a range of sectors topped by energy, defence and trade.

2. An overall decrease in anti-state insurgency since 2009-10 was observed especially in FATA, Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa and Balochistan Provinces. However, a dramatic rise in civilian casualties and continuity in militant-attacks was observed in the 1

st Quarter 2016. Remote-Controlled-

IEDs were used as major a “tactic” in KP/FATA/GB & AJK (Pak North Zone) while critical attacks hit varying targets (generally softer ones) since Dec 2015 onwards.

3. Numerous indicators do perceivably suggest new hierarchy amongst militant nexus, new agenda, more aggressive tactics, and hence, ample funding. Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa (KP) witnessed more violent incidents during Jan-Mar 2016 than the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) – stretched along the Pak-Afghan Boarder) for a basic reason of intensive military presence in the later region.

4. Jamat-ul-Ahrar (JA) emerges as the lead militant group amongst TTP’s factions in claiming the most critical attacks in the recent times. JA has been expanding its violent attacks to other parts of the country beyond KP/FATA i.e. +70 civilians were killed and around 300 injured – mostly Christians –in a high-intensity bomb-attack on a public park in the Punjab’s provincial capital Lahore.

5. In general, it is perceived that the INGOs/NGOs’ staff in Pak North Zone mainly confronts rising threat of “collateral damage” and crime in the foreseeable future.

6. MOI has started granting fresh MOUs to NGOs under the new regulations so far. An initial batch of 25 fortunate NGOs includes XYZ.

7. On the other hand, Military led operations in FATA have entered final phases with claimed further success in North Waziristan Agency’s Shawal Valley amid fresh displacement from Tehsil Ghulam Khan (along the Pak-Afghan Border). About +1200 families are expected to be dislocated from this area in near future, while +200 families of TDPs have be re-located in Bannu already last week.

8. Interdepartmental security coordination has stimulated apparently effective counterterrorism joint operations by intelligence units and law enforcing agencies across KP/FATA and elsewhere nationwide. A number of key militants have been arrested in such operations including a militant commander involved highly lethal attacks



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on INGOs in Mansehra District. Expanded multi-prong counter-operations are considered part of the National Action Plan (National Counterterrorism Strategy).

B. Analysis 1. Violent incidents in the first quarter of 2016 caused at least 538 aggregate casualties (including 2 national staff

members of US-Consulate Peshawar, killed in a direct Roadside Remote-Controlled IED Attack on 1st

March, in Mohmand Agency, FATA during an Anti-Narcotics Drive), while whereabouts of seven (7) national staffers of FATA Development Authority (FDA) remains unknown. They were abducted in Wana Tehsil of South Waziristan Agency, FATA on 10

th March, 2016. Significant incidents are listed on last pages of the SITREP.

2. Jama’at-ul-Ahrar (JA) has announced launching a full-pledge war against the “un-Islamic democracy” in Pakistan while terming all the modern educational institutions nationwide as core sources of providing manpower and intellect that ‘strengthens un-Islamic democratic system’ and ‘un-Islamic legislations’. Ref. A video message released by JA claiming the attack on Bach Khan University Campus Charsadda, Peshawar Division in Dec 2015;

3. Continued execution of the convicted militants, execution of Mumtaz Qadri on 29th

Feb (who killed Punjab’s Governor Salman Taseer), and stepped-up military action in FATA are often quoted by TTP and its splinter groups as pretext of the attacks launched recently against targets including pro-state peace committees in KP/FATA, as KP witnessed more militancy related incidents than FATA;

4. Most of militant-attacks were directed primarily against the Pak Armed Forces (mainly IED-Attacks and Target Killing) besides members of Shia community in FATA and urban limits of Peshawar – with the pretext of Syrian context for the first time;

5. Life in the Twin Cities of Islamabad and Rawalpindi was paralysed due to at least a week long post-Mumtaq Qadri protest demos 1

st March onwards until imminent Friday. Cellular communication in the Twin Cities was

suspended and Red Zone Cordoned-off meanwhile. The same situation was observed again 27th

March onwards for 4 days due to violent protests emanating from Rawalpindi and ending up in shape of a sit-in in front of the Parliament House, which concluded upon assurance of the Federal Government Officials associated with preserving the Blasphemy Laws (Tahaffuz-e-Namoos-e-Risaalat Act).

6. The federal Ministry of Interior reportedly denied “organised” presence of “Daesh (ISIS)” in Pakistan in repeated press briefings. Senior intelligence officials have emphasised on integrated counterterrorism operations and effective de-radicalization campaign fearing violence inspired by “Daesh” through local militant groups;

7. Credible information suggests 150 “reported” and 200 “un-reported” cases for extortion related complaints in Peshawar in March only. Extortion has surfaced as a chronic problem in central KP and causing very serious public concerns. Recent killing of the president of a Trade Union in Peshawar city is a latest example, as traders continue to protest randomly against the incident;

8. Latest developments for strengthening law & order in KP suggest possible deployment of Rangers in near future with reference to a written request by the Chief Minister of KP to the Federal Minister for Interior, also quoting rise and persistency in extortion related issues emanating primarily from FATA – where the KP Government has no control being under federal jurisdiction – through Governor-KP.



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C. Humanitarian Space 1. There was no reported case of hostility directed against any NGO/INGO in the reporting period except crime

and administrative issues related to MOUs and “non-conformity act” i.e. offices of INGOs sealed in residential areas.

2. A direct attack on national staff of US-Consulate Peshawar during an anti-narcotics drive in FATA (Mohmand Agency) was noticed as a major incident involving a foreign governmental entity

3. Areas of XYZ Operations pose a number of generic threats besides medium/high level specific concerns about potential criminal/militant abduction, collateral damage (‘wrong place, wrong time’ phenomenon) and higher threat of road hazards respectively.

D. ISLAMABAD & RAWALPINDI REGION;

1. Incidents of organised crime (robberies), street crimes, and road accidents reportedly affected INGOs/UN’s staff (national/international);

2. An Ex-Governor of Afghanistan was abducted by an unidentified group of offenders from sector F-7 in broad daylight. He was later recovered in safe condition following an encounter in Swabi area of KP (bordering Islamabad/Rawalpindi) resulting in killing of one offender shot in cross-firing with police, on 25

th February. No

group had claimed the abduction. Further details remain unknown, while implications of some “personal dispute” cannot be ruled out though.



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3. Environment in the Twin cities was almost paralysed twice due to violent protest demonstrations led by religious groups in context with the execution of Mumtaz Qadri and preservation of the Blasphemy Law.

E. MAJOR CHALLENGES AHEAD;

1. XYZ project in SWA amid limited resources;

2. XYZ programming in Khyber Agency;

3. Maintaining office in Peshawar amid high risk of collateral damage and organised crime;

F. FORESIGHT & DEVELOPING SITUATIONS

1. Improvement of security in / around Peshawar Division (being the Provincial Capital) and southern districts of KP (Kohat onwards until Dera Ismael Khan) will be a bigger challenge in near future for the Government.

2. Energy crisis; spontaneous protest demonstrations against electricity outages and subsequent issues topped with shortage of potable water especially in the urban areas may cause temporary access issues;

3. Blasphemy related issues; any abrupt changes in the respective law or amnesty granted to those convicted under this law has the potential to stimulate politically backed protest demonstrations;

4. Privatization Drive & Potential Unemployment; labour unions and employees of affected government functionaries may resort to protest demons against the drive.

5. Panama Leak; Respective implications and politically led anti-government protests may most likely stir-up the macro-political situation in the coming days.

6. Month of Ramazan-ul-Mubarak and Eid Holidays (June-July); potential impact on operations and inter-agency coordination (associated with reduced working-hours and affect on staff’s health) requires proactive mitigation – flexible scheduling to avoid otherwise stressed programming.

pak monthly sitrep march 2016 and qtrly overview gen

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