Page 1 – April 21, 2023

Terrorism and Hazardous Weather Events:What have they in common?

7th Annual CRHNet SymposiumFredericton, NB27-29 October 2010

Jacques DescurieuxMeteorological Service of Canada

INTELLIGENCE

ANALYSIS

COMMUNICATIONs

Why

Terrorism ?

•"Hurricane Katrina: framing the issue – A weapon of mass destruction without criminal dimension”

• A. Thaad, Admiral USCG (Ret.)

•Floods pose “as great a threat as terrorism”• Sir Michael Pitt

•5000 passengers taken “hostage”• YVR 2009

• Montreal “roof collapses” March 2008

• YVR December 20/21 2008

• Katrina

• Xynthia

• Montreal “heat wave” August 2010

Intelligence?

Intelligence=

Information

Analysis?

Analysis=

Knowledge

Chronology of the Montreal Case

Collapsing roofs cases

Weather Elements

AssociatedRisk

Factors

DirectImpacts

Risk

Event Type

Varied Precip. Cycles

MultipleSnow Falls

WindSpeed

>80km/h

Frost &

Thaw Cycle

Snow Drifts

Flat RoofRoof

CollapseCasualties

Perception

BavariaWinter Storm

Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No

Montreal03/08

Winter Storm

Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No

Vernon 01/09

? Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes

Vulnerability?

• 50 000 flat roofs in Montreal as a result of age and ensuing reduced structural

integrity.

•Summarizing data(data exploration and typology)

•Checking the coherence of data (systematic cross case comparisons)

•Corroborate existing theories or assumptions

•Elaborate new theories or assumptions

•Test new theories or assumptions

Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA):

What is “QCA”?

• A small to intermediate “N” (2 to 10 and 10 to 100) cases comparisons and analytical tool

• “Qualitative” because it is a case-based technique

• Introduces the concept of “conjunctural (configurational) causation”

Basic Glossary

• Determinant or Condition: an explanatory variable that may affect the outcome. Determinants can be “necessary” and/or “sufficient”

•Outcome: a variable to be explained by the determinants or conditions

• Boolean minimization: Reducing complex “expressions” into minimal formula

Weather Elements

AssociatedRisk

Factors

DirectImpacts

Indirect Impacts

Combined Impacts

Precip.Windspeed

>160km/h

Storm surge

High tideWeak dyke

sys.Loss of services

Dykes failure

FloodsLoss of agric.land

Social Economic Environ.

KATRINA(New Orleans)

Tropical Cyclone 1 1 1 ? 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

XYNTHIA(SW France)

Mid-latitude cyclone

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Risk Communication Cognitive Determinants of Response

Was the message: Did the message tell:

Events and date

Type of Hazardous weather

Understandable ?

Usable? Actionable?

What could

happen?

How will this

evolve?

How will it affect me?

How can I cope with

this weather hazard?

Creston (07/06/30) Severe thunderstorm/Microburst

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Penticton (07/11/12)

Wind storm 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lake Okanagan (08/07/10)

0 0 0 1 0 0 0

Montreal (08/03/07)

Severe winter storm 1 1 1 1 1 1

YVR (08/12/21)

Snow storm 1 0 0 1 0 0 0

Camrose (09/08/01)

Severe thunderstormGust front (80-100 km/h)

1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Mt. Laurier(09/08/04)

Tornado 1 1 0 1 0 0 0

Durham/Vaughan (09/08/20)

Severe Thunderstorm/Tornados

1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Atlantic(09/08/23)

Hurricane Bill 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Montreal/Quebec(09/12/09)

Snow Storm 1 1 1 1 1 1

New Brunswick (10/01/02)

Weather Bomb/Storm Surge

1 0 0 1 0 0 0

Southern Strait10/04/02

Winds gust < 50 knots 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

CQA risk communication and response table:

Which hypothesis?

• Are any determinants of response to threats important in hazardous weather risk communication?

• Are there “configurational causation” relationships between the dynamic or synoptic signature of the weather event, the “elements” (components) of the weather event, the vulnerability(ies) and the ensuing impact(s)?

• Which condition(s) is (are) always present

where the outcome is present/absent?

Communications?

Communication=

Knowledge Sharingor

Knowledge Transfer

MSC PSPCYVR

Ground Ops YVR

De-Icing

YVRSnow removal

Weather Warning

Fig. 1: Simplified weather warning “value chains”Based on the Dec. 20, 2008 Snow event in YVR

MSC CMAC NavCanada Airlines

CMACTAF – TAF+

VCMAC

WPM

Fig. 2: A Simple Aviation “Value Network”:

Meteorological Private Sector

DISSEMINATIONSpecial Weather Bull

Warnings

NavCanNational Ops

AirlinesNational

Dispatch/Ops

AirlinesAirport Station

NavCanAirport Ops

AIRPORTGround Ops

AIRPORTGround

Contractors

RegionalSPC

It is not about the communication

channel.

It is the message that matters!

Socio-contextual and cognitive determinants of individual response to threat:

Socio-contextual factors:

• Perceived preparedness

• Trust

Cognitive factors:

• What could happen?

• How will it evolve?

• How will it affect me?

• How can I cope?

Responses:

• Information/knowledge gathering

• Preparedness

• Risk avoidance

Adapted and simplified from:Lee, J.E. and Lemyre, L (2009)

Lee, J.E. and al. (2009)

•Individuals are more likely to respond to a warning if it includes the 4 cognitive determinants of response to threat.

•Failure to include even one element of any of the cognitive determinants may be sufficient to result in an inappropriate response to a specific threat.

Preliminary Findings

Successful preparedness is about

INFORMATION

ANALYSIS

COMMUNICATION