1ISSN 1019-2514IRR internal reference: PD1/2015

No 1/2015 / January 2015 / Issue 281Find us online at www.irr.org.za

FastFACTS

Published by the IRR with support from the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom, the International RepublicanInstitute/National Endowment for Democracy, Anglo American Chairman’s Fund, FirstRand Foundation, Open Society

Foundation for South Africa, Oppenheimer Memorial Trust, and the Royal Belgian Embassy.

Despite taking a larger and larger chunk of the pro-ceeds of the hard work of ordinary South Africans, the Government is running out of money. Only higher levels of growth can save it, although current policy thinking indicates that such a realisation is yet to dawn.

This edition of Fast Facts reviews South Africa’s tax base. It fi nds that government revenue as a proportion of gross domestic prod-uct (GDP) rose steadily in the latter apartheid years from 19.6% in 1976/77 to 23.3% in 1990/91. The fi gure then fl attened out through the 1990s and into the early 2000s, sitting at 23% in 2004 for example. However, the past decade has seen a rapid increase and by 2015/16 it is anticipated that government revenue will account for 29.7% of GDP.

The implication is that the Government believes it can more eff ectively invest the profi ts of the hard work of ordinary people and bigger companies alike than the private sector can.

It is not only the employed and the economically active that carry the tax burden. In 2013/14 42.1% of government revenue came from ‘indirect taxes’ including value added tax, fuel levies, and customs duties.

Yet what the Government is collecting is not nearly enough. Its budget defi cits of the early 2010s are on a par with what the apartheid government faced after the 1976 uprising. While treas-ury forecasts suggest that the defi cit will dip back to below 4% of GDP by 2015/16, we remain unconvinced and suspect that the GDP growth estimates to make that possible have been over- stated.

What we would expect is that a government running out of money would move quickly and eff ectively to create a policy en-vironment conducive to much higher levels of job creation and investment. That would see South Africa achieve the GDP growth rates necessary to swell government coff ers. Alas, too many of-fi cials and politicians remain invested in an ideology that it is pos-sible to extract wealth at infi nitum from our low growth economy. The fi scal cliff is rapidly approaching.

Sing a song of sixpence

Contact detailsTelephone: (011) 482-7221

e-mail: info@irr.org.zawebsite: www.irr.org.za

Editor-in-ChiefFrans Cronje

EditorsJohn Kane-Berman

Thuthukani Ndebele

Head of ResearchLerato Moloi

Head of InformationTamara Dimant

AuthorTamara Dimant

TypesetterMartin Matsokotere

ContentsSing a song of sixpence. . . . . . . 1

National revenue . . . . . . . . . . . 2 - 4

Indirect taxes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 - 6

Individual taxpayers. . . . . . . . . . 7

Assessed individual taxpayers by selected taxable income groups, 2013. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 -10

Corporate taxpayers . . . . . . 11-13

International comparisons.. . . 1 3

Fast Stats. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 -19

For information requests, briefi ngs, and other CRA products, please

contact Boitumelo Sethlatswe at boitumelo@irr.org.za— Frans Cronje

2FastFACTS l No 1/2015 l January 2015 l Issue 281Institute of Race Relations

Public fi nance

National revenueGovernment fi nance as a proportion of GDP, 1976/77–2015/16

Year aPersonal

income taxCompany

taxNationalrevenuec

Nationalexpenditure

Defi cit/surplus

1976/77 5.1% 4.6% 19.6% 25.5% -5.9%1977/78 5.0% 4.3% 19.8% 25.2% -5.3%1978/79 4.4% 3.3% 19.8% 24.1% -4.3%1979/80 3.3% 2.9% 19.6% 22.6% -3.0%1980/81 3.1% 3.3% 20.6% 20.7% -0.1%1981/82 4.1% 3.8% 19.6% 21.7% -2.1%1982/83 4.9% 3.9% 20.5% 22.7% -2.2%1983/84 5.2% 3.0% 19.9% 23.0% -3.1%1984/85 6.2% 3.0% 20.9% 24.1% -3.2%1985/86 6.1% 3.2% 23.0% 25.3% -2.3%1986/87 6.0% 2.9% 21.8% 26.0% -4.2%1987/88 6.0% 2.8% 21.5% 26.3% -4.9%1988/89 5.9% 3.3% 22.8% 26.2% -3.4%1989/90 6.9% 3.8% 24.3% 25.6% -1.3%1990/91 7.3% 3.6% 23.3% 25.1% -1.8%1991/92 8.1% 3.4% 21.9% 25.5% -3.6%1992/93 7.9% 2.8% 21.0% 28.1% -7.1%1993/94 7.8% 2.1% 21.3% 26.7% -5.4%1994/95 9.0% 2.4% 21.9% 26.4% -4.5%1995/96 9.1% 2.5% 21.9% 26.9% -5.0%1996/97 9.4% 2.7% 22.4% 27.2% -4.8%1997/98 9.8% 2.8% 22.8% 26.4% -3.6%1998/99 10.3% 2.7% 23.6% 26.3% -2.7%1999/2000 10.3% 2.5% 23.1% 25.2% -2.1%2000/01 9.1% 3.1% 22.1% 24.0% -1.9%2001/02 8.6% 4.0% 23.0% 24.4% -1.4%2002/03 7.9% 4.7% 22.3% 23.3% -1.0%2003/04 7.6% 4.7% 22.0% 24.2% -2.2%2004/05 7.7% 4.9% 23.0% 24.4% -1.4%2005/06 7.8% 5.3% 24.4% 24.8% -0.3%2006/07 7.7% 6.5% 25.3% 24.6% 0.7%2007/08 8.1% 6.8% 25.9% 25.0% 0.9%2008/09 8.5% 7.3% 25.4% 26.2% -0.7%2009/10 8.4% 5.6% 22.9% 28.0% -5.1%2010/11 8.3% 4.9% 23.7% 27.8% -4.0%2011/12 8.4% 5.1% 24.1% 28.9% -4.8%2012/13 8.7% 5.0% 23.7% 29.0% -5.3%2013/14 9.0% 5.2% 24.4% 28.9% -4.5%2014/15b 9.2% 5.2% 29.5% 33.6% -4.1%2015/16b 9.4% 5.2% 29.7% 33.3% -3.6%

Sou rce: South African Reserve Bank (SARB), time series data, accessed 8 January 2015; National Treasury, Medium Term Budget Policy State-ment (MTBPS) 2014; South African Revenue Service (SARS), Tax Statistics 2008-2014

a Fiscal years. Th e 12 months on which government budgets are based, beginning 1 April and ending 31 March of the subsequent calendar year. 1976/77—2013/14 SARB data, 2014/15—2015/16 National Treasury (MTBS 2014) data.

b MTBPS estimates.c Including indirect taxes.

3FastFACTS l No 1/2015 l January 2015 l Issue 281Institute of Race Relations

Public fi nance

Composition of national tax revenue,a selected years, 1984/85-2013/14Type of tax 1984/85 1994/95 2013/14 Direct taxesb 58.1% 53.8% 57.8%Persons and individuals 32.5% 39.5% 34.5%Companies 23.8% 11.9% 19.9%Secondary tax on companies/dividend taxc – 1.1% 1.9%Other 1.7% 1.2% 1.5%Indirect taxesb 41.9% 46.2% 42.1%Value added tax/general sales taxd 24.6% 25.7% 26.4%Excise duties 8.1% 5.1% 3.2%Fuel levy 1.0% 7.3% 4.9%Customs duties 5.5% 4.8% 4.9%Other 2.5% 3.2% 2.7%Totalb 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: SARS, Tax Statistics 2014, November 2014; IRR, South Africa Survey 2014/15a IRR calculations.b Figures should add up vertically but may not, owing to rounding.c Th e dividends tax replaced the secondary tax on companies from 1 April 2012. Th is tax is imposed on shareholders at a rate of 15%

on receipt of dividends, whereas the secondary tax on companies was imposed on companies (at a rate of 10%) on the declaration of dividends.

d Value added tax (VAT) replaced the general sales tax in 1991.

Estimated composition of national tax revenue, 2014/15

Source: National Treasury, MTBPS 2014

Tax revenue by main source, 1994/95 and 2014/15

Source: National Treasury, MTBPS 2014; IRR, South Africa Survey 2014/15

4FastFACTS l No 1/2015 l January 2015 l Issue 281Institute of Race Relations

Public fi nance

Tax revenue by main source as a proportion of GDP, 1994/95–2014/15

Tax revenue by main source as a proportion of GDP, 2014/15

Type 1994/95 2004/05 2014/15

Change1994/95–2014/15

Personal income tax 9.0% 7.7% 9.2% 2.2%

Corporate income tax 2.4% 4.9% 5.2% 116.7%

Secondary tax on companies (STC)/Dividends tax

0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 66.7%

Value added tax 5.9% 6.8% 7.1% 20.3%

Fuel levy 1.7% 1.3% 1.2% -29.4%

Customs 1.1% 0.9% 1.2% 9.1%

Other 2.5% 2.4% 2.1% -16.0%

Total 22.9% 24.5% 26.5% 15.7%

Source: National Treasury, MTBPS 2014; IRR, South Africa Survey 2014/15

5FastFACTS l No 1/2015 l January 2015 l Issue 281Institute of Race Relations

Public fi nance

Indirect taxesDomestic taxes on goods and services, 2008/09-2013/14

Change in domestic taxes on goods and services, 2008/09-2013/14

Year VATFuel levy

Customs duties

Specifi c excise duties Other

Rbn2008/09 154.3 24.9 22.8 20.2 11.22009/10 147.9 28.8 19.6 21.3 13.42010/11 183.6 34.4 26.6 23.0 17.12011/12 191.0 36.6 24.2 25.4 17.62012/13 215.0 40.4 39.0 28.4 31.22013/14 237.7 43.7 44.2 29.0 24.02008/09–2013/14 54.0% 75.5% 93.9% 43.6% 114.3%

Proportion of total tax revenue2008/09 24.7% 4.0% 3.6% 3.2% 1.8%2009/10 24.7% 4.8% 3.3% 3.6% 2.2%2010/11 27.2% 5.1% 4.0% 3.4% 2.5%2011/12 25.7% 4.9% 4.6% 3.4% 2.4%2012/13 26.4% 5.0% 4.8% 3.5% 3.8%2013/14 26.4% 4.9% 4.9% 3.2% 2.7%

Proportion of GDP2008/09 6.7% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5%2009/10 6.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.5%2010/11 6.7% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6%2011/12 6.4% 1.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.6%2012/13 6.7% 1.3% 1.2% 0.9% 1.0%2013/14 6.9% 1.3% 1.3% 0.8% 0.7%

Source: SARS, Tax Statistics 2013-14

6FastFACTS l No 1/2015 l January 2015 l Issue 281Institute of Race Relations

Public fi nance

Environmental taxes, 2008/09-2013/14

YearInternational

airPlastic bag

levyaElectricity

levy

Incandescentlight bulb

levy

CO2 tax on motor vehicle

emissions Total

Proportion total taxrevenue

Rbn

2008/09 0.55 0.08 – – – 0.63 0.10%

2009/10 0.58 0.11 3.34 0.06 – 4.10 0.68%

2010/11 0.65 0.15 5.10 0.15 0.63 6.68 0.99%

2011/12 0.76 0.16 6.32 0.14 1.62 9.01 1.21%

2012/13 0.87 0.15 7.98 0.14 1.57 10.71 1.32%

2013/14 0.88 0.17 8.82 0.07 1.71 11.65 1.29%

Source: SARS, Tax Statistics 2014

The levy on plastic shopping bags was introduced in 2004 as a mechanism to manage the problem of plastic bags which ended up as wind-blown litter on fences, trees, the open veld or in waste facilities via normal refuse collection systems. It was introduced at three cents per bag in 2004 and is currently six cents per bag.

Plastic bag levy revenue collected and recycling funds allocated, 2004/05-2014/15

Financial year Levy collected

Funds allocatedto Department

of Environmental Aff airs

Funds allocatedas proportion

of levy collected

Rm %

2004/05 41.2 12.0 29.1%

2005/06 61.4 12.0 19.5%

2006/07 75.1 — —

2007/08 86.3 20.0 23.2%

2008/09 78.6 20.0 25.5%

2009/10 110.5 29.4 26.6%

2010/11 150.3 23.5 15.6%

2011/12 160.6 16.1 10.0%

2012/13 152.4 — —

2013/14 169.2 40.4 23.9%

2014/15a 42.3 42.8 101.2%

Total 1 127.6 216.2 19.2%

Source: Reply by the minister of fi nance to parliamentary question 2139 by Mr T Z Hadebe (DA), 24 October 2014a Levy revenue for April-August 2014.

7FastFACTS l No 1/2015 l January 2015 l Issue 281Institute of Race Relations

Public fi nance

Individual taxpayersNumber of individual taxpayers, 2010-14

Date Registereda Tax year

Expectedto submitreturnsb

Number oftaxpayersassessed

Proportionassessed

31 March 2010 5 920 612 2010 5 530 894 5 235 835 94.7%

31 March 2011 10 346 175c 2011 5 951 520 5 498 929 92.4%

31 March 2012 13 703 717 2012 6 257 075 5 567 292 89.0%

31 March 2013 15 418 920 2013 6 483 837 5 174 572 79.8%

31 March 2014 16 779 711 2014 – – –

Source: SARS, Tax Statistics 2014; Annual Report 2013-14a Number of individuals registered as at 31 March of each year.b Expected taxpayers are those who are expected to submit a return for a specifi c tax year. Some can be on the register and be active for

other years, but may not for a specifi c tax year.c Following changes in SARS policy on registration requirements, it was made compulsory from 2011 for all employees to be registered

for income tax.

For the 2013 tax year 15.4 million formally employed individuals were registered for personal income tax (PIT), regardless of their tax liability. Of those, 6.5 million were expected to submit returns, and of those 5.2 million (79.8%) were assessed.

Individual taxable income and tax assessed, 2010-13

Tax year

Number oftaxpayersassessed

Taxable income

Rbn

Average taxable income

R

Tax assessed

Rbn

Average taxassessed

R

Tax assessed asa proportion of

taxable incomea

2010 5 235 835 884.4 168 919 176.1 33 627 19.9%

2011 5 498 929 990.7 180 164 197.4 35 890 19.9%

2012 5 567 292 1 080.0 193 994 215.9 38 783 20.0%

2013 5 174 572 1 181.6 228 338 226.3 43 726 19.1%

Source: SARS, Tax Statistics 2014a Th e tax burden is indicated by the tax assessed as a percentage of taxable income. Th e decline in 2010 and onwards is mainly due to a

slowing in the growth of taxable income and reduction in average tax.

8FastFACTS l No 1/2015 l January 2015 l Issue 281Institute of Race Relations

Public fi nance

Proportion of taxpayers

Proportion of taxable income

Proportion of tax assessed

Source: SARS, Tax Statistics 2014a Th is bracket refers to taxpayers that have assessed losses. In the majority of instances this would be the result of losses granted to individu-

als running businesses as sole proprietors. However, an assessed loss could also arise if a taxpayer had, for example, a taxable income of R200 000 but incurred R300 000 in medical expenses, resulting in an assessed loss.

Assessed individual taxpayers by selectedtaxable income groups, 2013

9FastFACTS l No 1/2015 l January 2015 l Issue 281Institute of Race Relations

Public fi nance

Individual tax assessed by age group, 2013 (proportions)

Individual tax assessed by sex, 2013 (proportions)

10FastFACTS l No 1/2015 l January 2015 l Issue 281Institute of Race Relations

Public fi nance

Employed and Pay As You Earn (PAYE) payments received byeconomic activity, 2013/14 (proportions)

Employed (formal, non-agricultural)

PAYE payments

Individual taxpayers, taxable income, and tax assessed by province, 2013 (proportions of national total)

11FastFACTS l No 1/2015 l January 2015 l Issue 281Institute of Race Relations

Public fi nance

Corporate taxpayers, 2012

Corporate taxpayersCorporate taxable income and tax assessed by sector and

economic activity, 2012 (actual numbers)

2012 (95.9% assessed tax as % of provisional tax)

Primary sectorNumber oftaxpayersa

Taxableincomeb

Rbn

Taxassessed

Rbn

Agriculture, forestry, and fi shing 19 409 -22.56 2.30

Mining and quarrying 1 777 18.70 12.98

Secondary sector

Manufacturing 53 705 21.34 32.45

Electricity, gas, and water 2 666 -5.25 1.40

Construction 62 021 -9.58 3.43

Tertiary sector

Wholesale and retail trade, catering, and accommodation 107 573 26.24 22.48

Transport, storage, and communications 19 685 -7.61 12.15

Financial intermediation, insurance, real estate, and business services 219 081 62.05 55.76

Community, social, and personal services 37 988 10.00 6.41

Other c 101 903 -1.84 0.02

Total 625 808 –d 149.38

Source: SARS, Tax Statistics 2014a Of the 625 808 companies assessed for the 2012 tax year, 112 170 were assessed as small business corporations and paid tax at the ap-

plicable tax rate instead of a fi xed rate.b About a third of the 625 808 companies assessed in 2012 had positive taxable income; a further third had taxable income equal to zero

and the remaining third reported an assessed loss.c Source of income was indicated as ‘Other’ or was left blank on return.d Th e total was not provided in the source.

12FastFACTS l No 1/2015 l January 2015 l Issue 281Institute of Race Relations

Public fi nance

Corporate tax assessed by sector, 2012

Corporate tax assessed by sector and economic activitya, 201295.9% assessed tax as % of provisional tax

Primary sectorProportion of

taxpayersProportion of tax assessed

Proportionof GDPb

Agriculture, forestry, and fi shing 3.1% 1.5% 1.9%

Mining and quarrying 0.3% 8.7% 9.0%

Secondary sector

Manufacturing 8.6% 21.7% 13.2%

Electricity, gas, and water 0.4% 0.9% 3.6%

Construction 9.9% 2.3% 3.8%

Tertiary sector

Wholesale and retail trade, catering, and accommodation 17.2% 15.1% 14.6%

Transport, storage, and communications 3.1% 8.1% 9.8%

Financial intermediation, insurance, real estate, and business services 35.0% 37.3% 21.2%

Community, social, and personal services 6.1% 4.3% 22.9%

Other 16.3%c 0.0% –

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: SARS, Tax Statistics 2014, November 2014; Stats SA, Gross Domestic Product Th ird quarter 2014a SARS’s source of income code follows the Standard Industrial Classifi cation (SIC) system, and is not fully aligned with the system that

Stats SA uses.b GDP data for fi rst quarter 2013.c Source of income was indicated as ‘Other’ or was left blank on tax return.

13FastFACTS l No 1/2015 l January 2015 l Issue 281Institute of Race Relations

Public fi nance

Assessed companies with taxable income greater than R100 million constituted 0.1% of the number of companies but ac-counted for 64.3% of taxable income and 64.5% of assessed tax.

Number of companies, taxable income, and tax assessed, 2012

Taxable income NumberTaxable income

RbnAssessed tax

Rbn Eff ective rateLoss 192 432 -442.8 0.52 NAR nil 268 633 – 0.01 NAR1–R1 million 138 352 25.7 5.86 22.8%R1 million–R100 million 25 839 165.3 46.58 28.2%R100 million+ 552 343.3 96.41 28.1%Total 625 808 534.3 149.38 28.0%

Source: SARS, Tax Statistics 2014, November 2014

International comparisonsTop personal income tax rates, selected countriesa, 1985–2012

Country 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012Change

1985–2012Australia 60 49 47 47 47 45 45 -15Belgium 76 55 58 58 50 50 50 -26Botswana 60 50 35 25 25 25 25 -35Brazil 60 25 35 28 28 28 28 -32Canada 50 44 44 44 39 39 39 -11Chile 56 50 45 45 40 40 40 -16Denmark 73 68 64 59 59 52 55 -18Egypt 65 65 50 34 20 20 25 -40France 65 53 51 54 52 43 46 -19Germany 65 53 57 56 44 47 47 -18Ghana 60 55 35 30 25 25 25 -35Greece 63 50 45 42 40 40 49 -14Hungary N/A 50 44 40 38 32 16 N/AIndia 62 53 40 30 34 31 31 -31Indonesia 35 35 30 35 35 30 30 -5Ireland 65 56 48 42 42 41 41 -24Israel 60 48 50 50 49 46 48 -12Italy 81 66 67 51 43 43 47 -34Japan 70 65 65 50 50 50 50 -20Korea 65 64 48 44 39 39 42 -23Mauritius 35 35 30 25 30 15 15 -20Mexico 55 40 35 40 30 30 30 -25Morocco 87 87 46 44 44 38 38 -49Netherlands 72 60 60 52 52 52 52 -20New Zealand 66 33 33 39 39 36 33 -33Norway 64 51 42 48 40 40 40 -24Poland N/A N/A 45 40 40 32 32 N/APortugal 69 40 40 40 42 47 47 -22Russia 100 80 30 30 13 13 13 -87Singapore 40 33 30 28 21 20 20 -20South Africab 50 45 43 45 40 40 40 -10Spain 66 56 56 48 35 35 52 -14Sweden 80 61 46 51 52 52 56 -24Switzerland 33 33 35 31 26 26 26 -7Turkey 63 50 55 45 40 35 35 -28United Kingdom 60 40 40 40 41 50 50 -10United States 50 33 40 40 35 35 35 -15

Source: Economic Freedom of the World, 2013 Annual Report, Country Data Tables, October 2014a Marginal rate, percentages.b In South Africa in 2013/14, the top marginal rate applied to income above R638 000. Other countries had diff erent thresholds.

14FastFACTS l No 1/2015 l January 2015 l Issue 281Institute of Race Relations

FastSTATSLABOUR LOG

Labour participation rate 3Q 2014 (supply) 57.1% 3Q 2013: 57.1% Stats SA/QLFS

Labour absorption rate 3Q 2014 (demand) 42.6% 3Q 2013: 43.1% Stats SA/QLFS

Public sector employment 2Q 2014 up 26.4% compared to 2Q 2013 SARB

Private sector employment 2Q 2014 up 0.9% compared to 2Q 2013 SARB

Total employment 3Q 2014 15 117 000 3Q 2013: 15 036 000 Stats SA/QLFS

Change in total employment 81 000 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013 Stats SA/QLFS

— agriculture -54 000 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013 Stats SA/QLFS

— mining 19 000 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013 Stats SA/QLFS

— manufacturing -38 000 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013 Stats SA/QLFS

— utilities -21 000 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013 Stats SA/QLFS

— construction 135 000 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013 Stats SA/QLFS

— trade 12 000 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013 Stats SA/QLFS

— transport 6 000 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013 Stats SA/QLFS

— fi nance -36 000 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013 Stats SA/QLFS

— community and social services (including government) 140 000 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013 Stats SA/QLFS

— private households -83 000 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013 Stats SA/QLFS

Employees in non-farm enterprises registered for income tax up 1.0% Sep 2014 vs Sep 2013 Stats SA/QES

Number of such employees up 83 000 to 8 540 000 Stats SA/QES

Net employment (hiring intentions) outlook 1Q 2015 +13% 1Q 2014: +6% Manpower

Unemployment rate 3Q 2014 (offi cial) 25.4% 3Q 2013: 24.5% Number: 5.2 million

Unemployment rate 3Q 2014 (expanded including discouraged) 35.8% 3Q 2013: 34.9% Number: 8.3 million

Nominal wages per worker 2Q 2014 up 3.5% compared to 2Q 2013 SARB

Real wages per worker 2Q 2014 down 1.9% compared to 2Q 2013 SARB

Nominal remuneration/worker public 2Q 2014 down 1.1% compared to 2Q 2013 SARB

Nominal remuneration/worker private 2Q 2014 up 5.0% compared to 2Q 2013 SARB

Real remuneration/worker public 2Q 2014 down 6.3% compared to 2Q 2013 SARB

Real remuneration/worker private 2Q 2014 down 0.5% compared to 2Q 2013 SARB

Labour productivity 2Q 2014 down 1.4% compared to 2Q 2013 SARB

Nominal unit labour costs 2Q 2014 up 5.0% compared to 2Q 2013 SARB

Compensation of employees to GDP (at factor cost) 3Q 2014 52.1% 3Q 2013: 51.9% SARB

Average monthly earnings (Aug 2014) R15 770 up 6.6% compared to Aug 2013: R14 795 Stats SA/QES

Average wage settlements 2014 8.1% 2013: 7.9% Andrew Levy

Number of strike mandays 2014 11.8m 2013: 5.2m Andrew Levy

15FastFACTS l No 1/2015 l January 2015 l Issue 281Institute of Race Relations

FastSTATS

SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCOREBOARDTotal population 2014 54.00m 2013: 52.98m Stats SA

GDP per head 3Q 2014 (annualised, adjusted) R 70 604 current prices IRR/SARB

Real growth in GDP per head 2013 0.9% 2012: 1.1% SARB

Household saving to disposable income 3Q 2014 -2.3% 2Q 2013: -2.5% SARB

Household debt to disposable income 3Q 2014 78.3% 2Q 2013: 79.3% SARB

Household debt-service cost to disposable income 3Q 2014 9.1% 2Q 2013: 8.5% SARB

INVESTMENT INDEXReal gross fi xed capital formation (GFCF) 3Q 2014 R154.4bn down 2.4% compared to 3Q 2013

GFCF ÷ GDP 3Q 2014 (annualised, adjusted) 20.4% 3Q 2013: 20.4% (Target 30%)

Gross domestic saving ÷ GDP 3Q 2014 14.4% 3Q 2013: 14.0%

Real GFCF by public authorities up 13.8% 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013

— by public corporations down 0.1% 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013

— by private business down 6.7% 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013

Real GFCF in mining and quarrying up 1.7% 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013

— in manufacturing down 1.6% 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013

— in electricity, gas, and water down 17.6% 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013

— in transport and communication down 14.4% 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013

— in fi nance etc down 3.7% 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013

— in community, social, and personal services up 13.5% 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013

Real GFCF in residential buildings down 7.2% 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013

— in non-residential buildings up 2.4% 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013

— in construction works up 6.6% 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013

— in transport equipment up 14.9% 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013

— in machinery and equipment down 12.4% 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013

Foreign investment into SA 3Q 2014

— direct (FDI) R10.2bn 3Q 2013: R46.9bn

— portfolio R50.8bn 3Q 2013: R55.6bn

— other R49.7bn 3Q 2013: -R5.4bn

SA investment abroad 3Q 2014

— direct -R43.8bn 3Q 2013: -R30.1bn

— portfolio -R3.2bn 3Q 2013: -R5.5bn

— other R17.2bn 3Q 2013: R11.3bn

Balance on fi nancial account 3Q 2014 R58.3bn 3Q 2013: R55.2bn

Equities net purchases/sales by foreigners 2014 R13.4bn 2013: -R0.2bn

Bonds net purchases/sales by foreigners 2014 R2.8bn 2013: R32.5bn

16FastFACTS l No 1/2015 l January 2015 l Issue 281Institute of Race Relations

FastSTATSHOUSING HIGHLIGHTS

House Price Index (nominal) (medium size) (Dec 2014) up 8.5% compared to Dec 2013 Absa

House Price Index (real) (Nov 2014) up 3.1% compared to Nov 2013 Absa

Mortgage advances (Nov 2014) up 3.4% compared to Nov 2013 SARB

Houses built smaller than 81m2 (Jan-Nov 2014) down 14.0% on same period previous year Stats SA

House price trends (nominal) (average) 3Q 2014

— Aff ordable houses (40–79m2/priced at under R545 000) up 7.6% compared to 3Q 2013 Absa

— Small houses (80–140m2/R822 583) (average price) up 7.4% compared to 3Q 2013 Absa

— Medium houses (141–220m2/R1 161 087) up 7.7% compared to 3Q 2013 Absa

— Large houses (221–400m2/R1 860 413) up 10.8% compared to 3Q 2013 Absa

— All houses (80–400m2/R1 286 838) up 9.6% compared to 3Q 2013 Absa

— Luxury housing (costing more than R4m) up 10.9% compared to 3Q 2013 Absa

— Greater Johannesburg (80–400m2/R1 353 537) up 11.0% compared to 3Q 2013 Absa

— Cape Town metro (80–400m2/R1 541 670) up 14.4% compared to 3Q 2013 Absa

— Durban metro (80–400m2/R1 130 740) up 3.9% compared to 3Q 2013 Absa

— PE/Uitenhage metro (80–400m2/R934 385 up 1.6% compared to 3Q 2013 Absa

Cost of building a new house (average) up 8.0% compared to 3Q 2013 Absa

INFLATION INDEXHeadline infl ation rate 2014 6.1% 2013: 5.7%

— Housing and utilities (24.52%)* 5.7% 5.7%

— Transport (16.43%)* 6.2% 6.1%

— Food and non-alcoholic beverages (15.41%)* 7.7% 5.6%

— Insurance and other services (14.72%)* 7.2% 6.9%

— Household contents and services (4.79%)* 3.3% 3.2%

— Alcohol and tobacco (5.43%)* 6.3% 6.8%

— Recreation and culture (4.09%)* 2.8% 3.5%

— Clothing and footwear (4.07%)* 5.2% 3.1%

— Communication (2.63%)* -0.6% 1.1%

— Restaurants and hotels (3.50%)* 8.4% 6.7%

— Education (2.95%)* 8.7% 9.0%

— Health (1.46%)* 5.3% 4.7%

Rise in administered (non-market) prices 6.7% 8.7%

Infl ation without administered prices 5.9% 5.1%

CPI for primary urban areas (larger cities/towns) 6.1% 5.7%

CPI for secondary urban areas (smaller towns) 6.0% 5.6%

CPI for rural areas 6.6% 5.5%

Producer price rise (PPI) (Nov 2014 vs Nov 2013) 6.5% same period previous year: 5.8%

* Weighting

17FastFACTS l No 1/2015 l January 2015 l Issue 281Institute of Race Relations

FastSTATSBUSINESS BAROMETER

Leading business indicator (Oct 2014) down 1.2% on same period previous year SARB

Use of manufacturing production capacity (Aug) 81.0% Aug 2013: 81.7% Stats SA

Manufacturing production (volume) (Jan-Nov 2014) down 0.1% on same period previous year Stats SA

Total vehicles sold 2014: 644 523 down 0.7% compared to 2013 NAAMSA

Vehicles exported 2014: 276 874 up 0.2% compared to 2013 NAAMSA

Tractors sold 2014: 6 464 down 2.5% compared to 2013 SAAMA

Electricity consumed (Jan-Nov 2014) down 0.6% on same period previous year Stats SA

Total building plans passed (value) (Jan-Nov 2014) up 3.9% on same period previous year Stats SA

Total buildings completed (value) (Jan-Nov 2014) down 8.7% on same period previous year Stats SA

All building costs (average) 3Q 2014 up 9.8% compared to 2Q 2013 BER

Mining production (volume) (Jan-Nov 2014) down 2.3% on same period previous year Stats SA

Retail sales (value) (Jan-Nov 2014) up 2.3% on same period previous year Stats SA

Wholesales (value) (Jan-Nov 2014) up 0.5% on same period previous year Stats SA

Current adspend (Jan-Sep 2014): R27.3bn up 3.7% on same period previous year A C Nielsen

Number of liquidations 2014: 2 064 down 13.1% compared to 2013 Stats SA

Judgements for debt (Jan-Nov 2014): 289 546 down 14.1% on same period previous year Stats SA

Tourism accommodation occupancy rate (Nov 2014) 55.0% Nov 2013: 52.3% Stats SA

Overseas tourists (Jan-Nov 2014): 737 374 up 6.6% on same period previous year Stats SA

BETTER: 9 WORSE: 9

CONFIDENCE COUNTRMB/BER business confi dence index 4Q 2014 up 5 points to 51 since 3Q 2014 (scale 0–100)

Sacci business confi dence index (Dec 2014) down 2.5 points to 88.3 since Nov 2014 (2010 = 100)

BER/DTI manufacturing confi dence index 4Q 2014 up 14 points to 42 since 3Q 2014 (scale 0–100)

FNB/BER building confi dence index 4Q 2014 up 15 points to 60 since 3Q 2014 (scale 0–100)

BER building contractors confi dence index 4Q 2014 up 13 points to 66 since 3Q 2014 (scale 0–100)

FNB/BER civil construction index 4Q 2014 up 11 points to 59 since 3Q 2014 (scale 0–100)

Consumer fi nancial security index 3Q 2014 up 1.2 points to 51.4 since 2Q 2014 (scale 0–100) BMR

Ernst&Young/BER fi nancial confi dence index 3Q 2014 down 3 points to 58 since 2Q 2014 (scale 0–100)

FNB/BER consumer confi dence index 4Q 2014 up 1 point to 0 since 3Q 2014 (scale minus 100–100)

— black consumer confi dence index 4Q 2014 up 2 points to 7 since 3Q 2014 (scale minus 100–100)

— white consumer confi dence index 4Q 2014 down 2 points to -16 since 3Q 2014 (scale minus 100–100)

— high-income household confi dence index 4Q 2014 down 2 points to 3 since 3Q 2014 (scale minus 100–100)

— low-income household confi dence index 4Q 2014 up 8 points to -6 since 3Q 2014 (scale minus 100–100)

Kagiso purchasing managers index (PMI) (Dec 2014) down 3.1 points to 50.2 since Nov 2014 (2000 = 100) BER

Sacci trade activity index (TAI) (Dec 2014) up 2.0 points from 56 since Nov 2014 (scale 0–100)

Sacci trade expectations index (TEI) (Dec 2014) no change from 57 since Nov 2014 (scale 0–100)

FNB/TBCSA tourism business index (TBI) 3Q 2014 up 10.6 points to 105.3 since 2Q 2014 (scale 0–200)

Agricultural business confi dence index 3Q 2014 up 12.55 points to 62.71 compared to 3Q 2013 (2001=50) ABC/IDC

BETTER: 12 UNCHANGED: 1 WORSE: 5

18FastFACTS l No 1/2015 l January 2015 l Issue 281Institute of Race Relations

FastSTATSECONOMIC BAROMETER

GDP 3Q 2014 (basic prices) R864bn

GDP growth at market prices 3Q 2014 (ann, adj) 1.4% 3Q 2013: 1.2%

GDP growth at market prices 3Q 2014 vs 3Q 2013 1.4% 3Q 2013: 1.8%

— Agriculture (2.6% of GDP) 8.9% — Trade etc (14.4%) 1.5%

— Mining (8.8%) -2.9% — Transport and communication (10.1%) 2.2%

— Manufacturing (13.4%) -0.8% — Finance etc (20.3%) 2.2%

— Electricity and water (3.8%) -1.8% — Community services (5.8%) 1.4%

— Construction (4.0%) 2.7% — Government (17.0%) 3.2%

Govt consumption expenditure growth 3Q 2014 (ann, adj) 1.4% 3Q 2013: 0.7%

Govt capital expenditure growth 3Q 2014 (ann, adj) 6.4% 3Q 2013: 4.6%

Public sector expenditure to GDP 3Q 2014 (ann, adj) 27.9% 3Q 2013: 27.3%

Merchandise exports (Jan-Nov 2014) R902bn up 6.1% on same period in 2013

Merchandise imports (Jan-Nov 2014) R1 003bn up 8.6% on same period in 2013

Merchandise trade balance (Jan-Nov 2014) -R101bn Jan-Oct 2013: -R73bn

Gold and forex reserves (Dec 2014) R569bn Dec 2013: R520bn

Current account defi cit 3Q 2014 R68bn 3Q 2013: R67bn

— as proportion of GDP 6.0% 3Q 2013: 6.4%

Capital account surplus 3Q 2014 R91bn 3Q 2013: R86bn

Gold price per ounce (average) 2014 $1 266 2013: $1 411 (Decrease: 10.3%)

Gold price per ounce (average) 2014 R13 725 2013: R13 550 (Increase: 1.3%)

Platinum price per ounce (average) 2014 $1 380 2013: $1 484 (Decrease: 7.0%)

Platinum price per ounce (average) 2014 R14 953 2013: R14 283 (Increase: 4.7%)

Crude oil price (brent/barrel) 2014 $99 2013: $109 (Decrease: 8.8%)

Petrol (premium pump price per litre Gauteng) (Jan) R11.24 Jan 2014: R13.57 (Decrease: 17.2%)

Growth in money supply (M3) (Nov 2014) 8.31% Nov 2013: 6.23%

Change in private sector credit extension (Nov 2014) 9.13% Nov 2013: 6.97%

Prime overdraft rate (average) 27/1/15 9.25% year ago: 8.5%

Real prime overdraft rate (average) (Nov 2014) 3.26% Nov 2013: 3.06% (based on headline infl ation)

Repo rate (average) 27/1/15 5.75% year ago: 5.0%

€/R 0.0694 £/R 0.0560 $/R 0.0922 ¥/R 9.75 €/$ 0.7529 ¥/$ 105.70 2014a

R/€ 14.4027 R/£ 17.8581 R/$ 10.8444 R/¥ 0.1026 $/€ 1.3281 $/¥ 0.0095 2014a

Value of rand vs euro last 12/24/36 months -11%/-27%/-30% (Lowest: R/€ 15.00 Highest: R/€ 0.92)a

Value of rand vs dollar last 12/24/36 months -11%/-24%/-33% (Lowest: R/$ 11.61 Highest: R/$ 0.75)a

Value of rand vs pound last 12/24/36 months -15%/-27%/-35% (Lowest: R/£ 18.18 Highest: R/£ 1.58)a

Value of rand vs yen last 12/24/36 months -4%/0%/-11%

Rand vs basket last 12/24/36 months -11%/-23%/-30%

a Monthly middle rates.

19FastFACTS l No 1/2015 l January 2015 l Issue 281Institute of Race Relations

FastSTATS

Our Fast stats pages are compiled by Tamara Dimant, Head of Information, phone (011) 482-7221 x 2016,fax (011) 482-7690, e-mail tdimant@irr.org.za

These forecasts contain the highest and lowest estimates available to us.

LATEST FIGURES AND FORECASTS2014a 2015a

GDP growth 1.6% 2.9%1.4% 2.1%

Headline infl ation rate (CPI) (average) 6.1%5.3%3.8%

Expected CPI (business) (average) – 6.2% (trade unions) – 5.9%

Producer price infl ation (average)7.5% 5.3%7.4% 4.9%

Gross fi xed capital formation up 3.1% up 4.6%

down 0.5% up 1.8%

Final consumption expenditure by households up 2.0% up 3.0%up 1.2% up 1.9%

Government consumption expenditure up 2.1% up 2.4%up 1.8% up 1.6%

Gross domestic expenditure up 2.1% up 3.4%up 0.7% up 2.4%

Exports (goods & non-factor services)b up 4.2% up 6.1%up 1.0% up 2.5%

Imports (goods & non-factor services)b up 4.8% up 7.6%

down 0.2% up 2.8%

Current account defi cit RbnR223bn R211bnR196bn R207bn

— as proportion of GDP 6.0% 5.8%4.0% 4.0%

Capital account surplus R202bn R200bn

Prime overdraft rate (year end) 9.25%9.75%9.50%

R/Euro exchange rate (average) 14.4013.8812.00

R/$ exchange rate (average) 10.8411.3511.00

Gold price per ounce (average) $1 266$1 213$1 196

Nominal wage rise 6.6% 7.7%5.4% 7.4%

Employment growth rate (average)1.5% 1.1%1.5% 0.6%

Sou rces: Absa; Bureau for Economic Research (BER); City Bank; IMF; Investec; Nedbank; Nomura; RMB; SARB. Detailed source information is available from tdimant@irr.org.za

a These forecasts contain the highest and lowest estimates or actual fi gures for 2014 available at the time of going to press.

b Excluding investment income.