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Page 1Jean-Noël Gorge 3 mai 1999 1/58
MarKantec o n s e i
l s
Jean-Noël Gorge, Oct 18th 2006 1/29
EPITAEPITA
IT MarketsIT MarketsBasic Finance and MarketingBasic Finance and Marketing
Oct 18th 2006Jean-Noël GORGE
Page 2Jean-Noël Gorge 3 mai 1999 2/58
MarKantec o n s e i
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Previous week V.I.P.Previous week V.I.P.(Very Important Points)(Very Important Points)
Page 3Jean-Noël Gorge 3 mai 1999 3/58
MarKantec o n s e i
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Jean-Noël Gorge, Oct 18 2006 3/29
Macro economyMacro economy
• France
• GNP (PIB in French)
• Nation’s Budget
• Investments (households excluded)
• IT expenditures (household excl.)
• Euros 109
• 1700
• 270
• 230
• 75
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MarKantec o n s e i
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Jean-Noël Gorge, Oct 18 2006 4/29
Investments and Growth Investments and Growth
+1,8%
+3,5%
-10,0
-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004 20
052006
PIB Investissement
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MarKantec o n s e i
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Jean-Noël Gorge, Oct 18 2006 5/29
IT Added value to businessesIT Added value to businesses
Page 6Jean-Noël Gorge 3 mai 1999 6/58
MarKantec o n s e i
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IT and job creationIT and job creation
• France 2006
– 60 to 70 000 recruitment's in IT
– Of which 15 to 20 000 net job creations
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MarKantec o n s e i
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IT employment perspectiveIT employment perspective
207 000 new positions (net !) to be filled in France by 2015* Where to go to find candidates ? How to attract and retain ?
Competition tougher than ever between IT and other industries
papy-boom58 000 IT Pros will
retire in Francefrom now to 2015*creation
of 149 000 newjobs positions in
IT from now to 2015*
Scarcity of new graduates
less students taking sciences
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MarKantec o n s e i
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Consequences for you :Consequences for you :
• For 3 to 4 years (-> 2009 ?) market conditions are favorable to be recruited and promoted
• During the next ten years (one or 2 technical cycles) you must take every opportunity of developing other skills, talents or experiences.
• If you remain a «techy» only, your chances of being obsolete are maximum
• Management • Supervision• Company's functions and businesses
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MarKantec o n s e i
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Questions ?Questions ?
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MarKantec o n s e i
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Jean-Noël Gorge, Oct 18th 2006 10/29
Do we have long « cycles » in Do we have long « cycles » in IT ???IT ???
Page 11Jean-Noël Gorge 3 mai 1999 11/58
MarKantec o n s e i
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One way of describing a cycleOne way of describing a cycle
Page 12Jean-Noël Gorge 3 mai 1999 12/58
MarKantec o n s e i
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Jean-Noël Gorge, Oct 18 2006 12/29
+6 à +8% (e)
+1,8%
+3,5%
-10,0
-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004 20
052006
PIB L&S Investissement
Page 13Jean-Noël Gorge 3 mai 1999 13/58
MarKantec o n s e i
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Software and software services Software and software services (Syntec) growth inFrance (%)(Syntec) growth inFrance (%)
16,3 15
7
0,8-1,6
3,7 4,66,5
13,5
19,517
10,613,3
-3-5
4,17 87 6
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 992000200120022003200420052006
High forecast Low forecast
Page 14Jean-Noël Gorge 3 mai 1999 14/58
MarKantec o n s e i
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Cycles ? Probably !Cycles ? Probably !
• Personal opinion, based on experience
• Duration : more or less 10 years
• Time it takes for a major technology to roll all along Gartner Group’s curve
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A little bit of history… A little bit of history…
Towards integration…
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MarKantec o n s e i
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CyclesCycles
• +/- a decade (10 years)
• During first 2 years, leaders converge in their technical decisions, which in turn are adopted by followers : massification– Less players on supply side (mergers…)– Similar behaviors and decisions within «major-
accounts» (users – clients)• Following same learning curve (cf Gartner), some
ahead• “Domino’s effect”
– Unit costs are dropping as time pasts– Increasing yields
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MarKantec o n s e i
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HW
MatureTechno.
Emerging techno.
Users
Cyclephase
60's 70's 80's 90's 2000's
Page 18Jean-Noël Gorge 3 mai 1999 18/58
MarKantec o n s e i
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60's 70's 80's 90's
Components
Computers360 & Co
Punched Cards.LSI
Caract. DisplaysVLSI
Tapes, discsOS Batch
10 1
2000's
HW
MatureTechno.
Emerging techno.
Users
Cycle’sphase
Page 19Jean-Noël Gorge 3 mai 1999 19/58
MarKantec o n s e i
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60's 70's 80's 90's
Components Componentsintegration
Computers360 & Co 370's
Punched Cards.LSI
Caract. Displays.VLSI
Tapes, discsOS Batch
Caract. DisplaysVLSI
Tapes, discsOS Batch
Point to pointMicrocodeOSI 7 DB
time-sharing
10 1 10 2
2000's
HW
MatureTechno.
Emerging techno.
Users
Cycle’sphase
Page 20Jean-Noël Gorge 3 mai 1999 20/58
MarKantec o n s e i
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60's 70's 80's 90's
Components Componentsintegration
Systems’s Integration
Computers360 & Co 370's Minis
Punched Cards.LSI
Caract. Displays.VLSI
Tapes, discsOS Batch
Point to pointMicrocodeOSI 7 DB
time-sharingCaract. Displays
VLSITapes, discs
OS Batch
Point to pointMicrocodeOSI 7 DB
time-sharing
Microprocess.Graphic Displays
LAN DB-RClient/Server
10 1 10 2 10 3
2000's
HW
MatureTechno.
Emerging techno.
Users
Cycle’sphase
Page 21Jean-Noël Gorge 3 mai 1999 21/58
MarKantec o n s e i
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Jean-Noël Gorge, Oct 18 2006 21/29
60's 70's 80's 90's
Components Componentsintegration
Systems’s Integration
Services Integration
Computers360 & Co 370's Minis Micros
Punched Cards.LSI
Caract. Displays.VLSI
Tapes, discsOS Batch
Point to pointMicrocodeOSI 7 DB
time-sharing
Microprocess.Graphic Displays
LAN DB-RClient/Server
Caract. DisplaysVLSI
Tapes, discsOS Batch
Point to pointMicrocodeOSI 7 DB
time-sharing
Microprocess.Graphic Displays
LAN DB-RClient/Server
WAN, fibre opt.Internet, IPHTML, XML
Objects
10 1 10 2 10 3
10 4
100% of
Internal users
2000's
HW
MatureTechno.
Emerging techno.
Users
Cycle’sphase
Page 22Jean-Noël Gorge 3 mai 1999 22/58
MarKantec o n s e i
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Jean-Noël Gorge, Oct 18 2006 22/29
60's 70's 80's 90's
Components Componentsintegration
Systems’s Integration
Services Integration
Computers360 & Co 370's Minis Micros
Punched Cards.LSI
Caract. Displays.VLSI
Tapes, discsOS Batch
Point to pointMicrocodeOSI 7 DB
time-sharing
Microprocess.Graphic Displays
LAN DB-RClient/Server
Caract. DisplaysVLSI
Tapes, discsOS Batch
Point to pointMicrocodeOSI 7 DB
time-sharing
Microprocess.Graphic Displays
LAN DB-RClient/Server
WAN, fibre opt.Internet, IPHTML, XML
Objects
10 1 10 2 10 3
10 4
100% of
Internal users
2000's
BusinessIntegration
Internet
WAN, Fiber opticsInternet,IPHTML, XML
Objects
Wireless3G…
10 6
Internal and external
HW
MatureTechno.
Emerging techno.
Users
Cycle’sphase
Page 23Jean-Noël Gorge 3 mai 1999 23/58
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Towards integrationTowards integration
Each layer comes on top, previous layers never disappear !!!(See millenium bug)
70's
MainframesCobol 370CICS etc
80's
Minis & department's IT (VAR Digital, HP, DG)
90's 2000's
Micros( Client/Server, ERP)
60's
Assembler & Co
Page 24Jean-Noël Gorge 3 mai 1999 24/58
MarKantec o n s e i
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Digital TimesDigital Times
Industrial Era
Napoléon IIIRailways
Digital Era
ChiracInternet
Mass production, « Pushed » flowsRaw MaterialsHeavy « tangible » investments Taylorism/Marxism
Networked OrganizationsPulled flows « On demand »Fast and leanInformationImmaterial
Page 25Jean-Noël Gorge 3 mai 1999 25/58
MarKantec o n s e i
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Industrial times IT challengesIndustrial times IT challenges
Design/Engineering
Logistics
Purchasing
Sales
Finance
Mktg-Comm
Problem =
Integration
Solution=
"re-foundation"
= ERP
Design/Engineering
Manufacturing
Page 26Jean-Noël Gorge 3 mai 1999 26/58
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Digital times IT systems Digital times IT systems
HW
MatureTechno.
Emerging techno.
Users
Cycle’sphase
90's
Services Integration
MicrosMicroprocess.
Graphic DisplaysLAN DB-R
Client/Server
WAN, fibre opt.Internet, IPHTML, XML
Objects
10 4
100% of
Internal users
2000's
BusinessIntegration
Internet
WAN, Fiber opticsInternet,IPHTML, XML
Objects
Wireless3G…
10 6
Internal and external
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MarKantec o n s e i
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Need
for Internal
Integration
Company A
Digital times IT systemsDigital times IT systems
xxNetConception
Fabrication
Logistique
Achats
Ventes
Finance
Mktg-Comm
Need for external integration
Company BDesign/Engineering
Logistics
Purchasing
Sales
Finance
Mktg-Comm
Design/Engineering
Manufacturing
Page 28Jean-Noël Gorge 3 mai 1999 28/58
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Questions ?Questions ?
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Next lectureNext lecture
IT services